Thor's box office competition

[Chewy]

A) *Shrugs* If a movie opened April 1st and did Fast Five numbers, would THAT have been the movie that opened the summer? The first week in May has been the unofficial start of the summer movie season for a decade. The only reason we're spinning it now is because nobody thought a year ago that Fast Five would open bigger than Thor.

B) Essentially, but it depends on how well Thor holds up domestically. Its international numbers have been great, and if it has reasonable drops domestically it will be a lock. People need to remember that it's not as simple as worldwide gross minus production budget = profit. It's more than likeky Thor will be profitable at this point, but it depends on it's weekend drops and home video sales.

A) Nope, not spin. A year ago Fast Five was scheduled to open mid-June. 6 months ago it was scheduled to open mid-June. Then it moved to a week before Thor and marketed itself as the summer start film (literally using the phrase in its commercials) and opened to 86M. And technically it was the first weekend in May, it just took place partially in April.

B) It is going to make 150M domestically at the very least. It is going to make 250M overseas at the very least. Therefore its absolute floor is 400M WW, and it will likely fly past that. Of course the studios get a smaller cut of overseas gross, but that has been changing in recent years. As the markets expand the studios are renegotiating their deals and tons of opening weekend records in foreign markets seem to be broken with every new big film. Look no further than Clash of the Titans, a film which got a sequel solely on the strength of its overseas gross.

A sequel will happen.

 

[DieSmiling]

A) Nope, not spin. A year ago Fast Five was scheduled to open mid-June. 6 months ago it was scheduled to open mid-June. Then it moved to a week before Thor and marketed itself as the summer start film (literally using the phrase in its commercials) and opened to 86M. And technically it was the first weekend in May, it just took place partially in April.

Eh, it's semantics, but fine. I just have a hard time referring to a movie that opens in April as a summer movie. bad place, pre-Memorial Day May isn't really the summer either.

B) It is going to make 150M domestically at the very least. It is going to make 250M overseas at the very least. Therefore its absolute floor is 400M WW, and it will likely fly past that. Of course the studios get a smaller cut of overseas gross, but that has been changing in recent years. As the markets expand the studios are renegotiating their deals and tons of opening weekend records in foreign markets seem to be broken with every new big film. Look no further than Clash of the Titans, a film which got a sequel solely on the strength of its overseas gross.

A sequel will happen.

That's a good point about Clash. I didn't know that. I also didn't realize how poorly TIH did overseas (which in my head I was using as a comparrison)... Just looked it up.

WTF happened with TIH?

 

[Chewy]

WTF happened with TIH?

Nothing good.

 

[MadVillainy]

Yeah people say Ang Lee's Hulk hurt it...I'm still not sure. But I wish it did alot better

 

[Chewy]

Thor's WW total is probably going to surpass TIH's entire WW run on Tuesday.

RIP TIH

 

[MadVillainy]

I WANT THUNDERBOLT ROSS AND BETTY ROSS BACK....

Dammit world

 

[KangConquers]

What would you say Thor's chances of a sequel are at this point? Keeping in mind that studios only get 55% of ticket price.

 

[MadVillainy]

Pretty good

 

[WildcatNC]

Nothing good.

TIH was marketed extremely poorly because Marvel really didn't have its s**t together at the time and was really unsure any of this would take off.

 

[Still A ThorFan]

I wish Thor made over 90 million opening weekend like Iron Man did, but on the bright side I think a positive world of mouth will keep Thor in the top 5 for some time and before we know it he will hit over two hundred mil domestically.

By the way, I spent $10.45 on a small popcorn and small water for my nephew. I usually sneak food in the theater but we had pizza before hand. I didn't think he would want anything else. You have to love kids.

 

[WildcatNC]

What would you say Thor's chances of a sequel are at this point? Keeping in mind that studios only get 55% of ticket price.

A given. Marvel doesn't actually have many proven franchises to themselves. They will have to milk the big 4 to really put our moneymakers.

 

[Chewy]

TIH was marketed extremely poorly because Marvel really didn't have its s**t together at the time and was really unsure any of this would take off.

Universal marketed TIH. Paramount marketed IM, IM2, Thor, and CA.

 

[Iceman]

What would you say Thor's chances of a sequel are at this point? Keeping in mind that studios only get 55% of ticket price.

I think pretty much guaranteed as post theatrical run income will add a lot to a film which will already be in profit. With decent critical & fan reviews it's unlikely to collapse next weekend & by then it should be well on it's way to satisfying studio execs.

 

[WildcatNC]

Universal marketed TIH. Paramount marketed IM, IM2, Thor, and CA.

Thats what I was getting at. Marvel hadn't really reigned in the machine yet, mainly because they weren't sure that any of it could work.

 

[Chewy]

Thats what I was getting at. Marvel hadn't really reigned in the machine yet, mainly because they weren't sure that any of it could work.

But that's not really true. The problem was probably at least partially due to Universal distributing and marketing it. If you can name the biggest opening weekend a Universal film had before Fast Five without looking it up you'll win a non-prize. And realize what horrible shape Universal had been in recently until Fast/Furious saved them.

 

[MadVillainy]

But that's not really true. The problem was probably at least partially due to Universal distributing and marketing it. If you can name the biggest opening weekend a Universal film had before Fast Five without looking it up you'll win a non-prize. And realize what horrible shape Universal had been in recently until Fast/Furious saved them.

Fast & Furious?

 

[Chewy]

Nope. The Lost World, 1997.

And Fast and Furious is the only other Universal opening weekend that I can think of that was close. But I know TLW was their record holder before Fast Five.

 

[WildcatNC]

But that's not really true. The problem was probably at least partially due to Universal distributing and marketing it. If you can name the biggest opening weekend a Universal film had before Fast Five without looking it up you'll win a non-prize. And realize what horrible shape Universal had been in recently until Fast/Furious saved them.

Which Marvel surely knew as well but they still let them handle it. Very hands off because it was an unproven property and they had very little money or pull at the time as a studio. If they had to do over again they would never let them drop the ball like that imo and probably will never deal with them again.

They didn't exert control over their own product, something they have done since IM took off. The studio didn't have the confidence as a fledgling.

 

[Chewy]

Which Marvel surely knew as well but they still let them handle it. Very hands off because it was an unproven property and they had very little money or pull at the time as a studio. If they had to do over again they would never let them drop the ball like that imo and probably will never deal with them again.

They didn't exert control over their own product, something they have done since IM took off.

Universal was required to distribute based on the contract they drew up when Marvel bought the Hulk film rights back.

 

[Tony Stark]

Eh, it's semantics, but fine. I just have a hard time referring to a movie that opens in April as a summer movie. bad place, pre-Memorial Day May isn't really the summer either.



That's a good point about Clash. I didn't know that. I also didn't realize how poorly TIH did overseas (which in my head I was using as a comparrison)... Just looked it up.

WTF happened with TIH?

Post memorial day isn't Summer either. Summer starts June 21'st and has for thousands of years.


The point about the first weekend in may, more has to do with when Mother's day falls. If May 1st occurs on Saturday or Monday, then it does essentially make the next weekend, the second weekend in May due to Mother's day, which does cause a larger drop from Saturday to Sunday, historically than when the first full weekend in May occurs on a non-holiday weekend.

You can pretty much see that Fast 5 and Thor, followed a very close pattern to what Wolverine and Star Trek did. I'll be curious when the actuals come out today, to see how big the Sunday drop was.

 

[UltimateJustin]

I think the problem that caused Thor's somewhat lower than desired numbers are due to Fast Five having been much faster than Thor on basically all levels. Speeds in the movie Thor were clocked in at a comfortable 38mph for most of the movie, only varying shortly during a few action scenes. Fast Five on the other hand was so much faster -- guys like Tyrese and Vin Diesel and Paul Walker, driving cars, can get really fast -- and audiences recognized that.

Hopefully if Pirates is really terrible as could be the case, audiences will continue to check out Thor based on wom.

 

[hatebox]

Thor's actual for the weekend was 65.8m - hats off to Marvel for being so accurate in their estimates.

 

[MadVillainy]

If Pirates is terrible I bet it'll still make big bank opening weekend
And the Hangover 2 comes out the weekend after that.

I think this upcomign weekend is the last time Thor will have the chance to really shine..or at least be number 1

 

[Raiden]

I'm satisfied with Thor's 65 mil OW. Sure, I'd love it if the figures were higher, or close to what Fast Five did. But I wanted Thor to have legs and not have huge dropoff in the coming weeks, and imo Thor has good enough reviews and perhaps the WOM will help maintain Thor's numbers in the coming weeks. For such an unknown superhero, 65 mil isn't a bad way to start.

 

[Kingslayer]

No need to apologize! I hate mess and messy people.

I just had a nine hour shift this past Saturday, and I was the only one cleaning theaters. I'll tell you, having a job makes you have some newfound respect for various things.

And to bring things back on topic, I think Thor should have a fairly strong hold next weekend. Its main competition for its own market is Priest, which I don't see being extremely successful, although taking some of the 3D market will have a noticeable impact. Bridesmaids is a largely different market that skews a little older, so all things considered, I'd be surprised if Thor had the dreaded 60% drop. Especially given that it didn't open with monumental numbers. But you know, we'll see.