Thor's box office competition

[Vartha]

I just had a nine hour shift this past Saturday, and I was the only one cleaning theaters. I'll tell you, having a job makes you have some newfound respect for various things.

And to bring things back on topic, I think Thor should have a fairly strong hold next weekend. Its main competition for its own market is Priest, which I don't see being extremely successful, although taking some of the 3D market will have a noticeable impact. Bridesmaids is a largely different market that skews a little older, so all things considered, I'd be surprised if Thor had the dreaded 60% drop. Especially given that it didn't open with monumental numbers. But you know, we'll see.

I HATED cleaning the theaters when I worked at one back in the late 70's early 80's.

 

[GhostPoet]

What would you say Thor's chances of a sequel are at this point? Keeping in mind that studios only get 55% of ticket price.

It's getting a sequel. No doubt about it. It's doing great at the box office.

 

[Tony Stark]

On the BOM forums, they are saying the actuals for Thor are 65.8 M, so very close to the predicted 66M. I don't know the dailies yet, but I think they predicted a 25% drop on Sunday, so while not as low as Star Trek's Sunday drop, much better than IM2 last year on Mother's day of 32%

 

[BigThor]

Damn it, I was hoping the actuals were gonna be 70 mill, all it would've only taken 4 more mill to reach that.

Oh well, I guess it's still pretty good I suppose.

 

[Kingslayer]

I HATED cleaning the theaters when I worked at one back in the late 70's early 80's.

I actually don't mind it, as it's a fairly easy job, and you have a decent amount of freedom in doing it, but damn, some people are incapable of cleaning after themselves.

 

[Tony Stark]

Damn it, I was hoping the actuals were gonna be 70 mill, all it would've only taken 4 more mill to reach that.

Oh well, I guess it's still pretty good I suppose.

Estimates are pretty accurate, unless something bucks the trend. Last year IM2 was overestimated by 5 million because the Sunday drop was larger than the norm for that day's average drop historically. Thor sounds like it hit the average on the head. Star Trek was under average.

Keep in mind as was stated beofore, this is the average for Mother's day Sunday. You go back to Iron Man 1, and it was released the week before, so the comparison of a new film for 2008 on the same weekend would be Speed Racer.

Again Thor did very well for that weekend.

 

[Spideyfan93]

It should do 30 or 40 million this upcoming weekend, hopefully. Hate bringing up Priest, but if that P.O.S. makes more a lot of money I'll be annoyed.

I might have convinced my dad to go see this so I'll be able to see crowd reports.

 

[BigThor]

Estimates are pretty accurate, unless something bucks the trend. Last year IM2 was overestimated by 5 million because the Sunday drop was larger than the norm for that day's average drop historically. Thor sounds like it hit the average on the head. Star Trek was under average.

Keep in mind as was stated beofore, this is the average for Mother's day Sunday. You go back to Iron Man 1, and it was released the week before, so the comparison of a new film for 2008 on the same weekend would be Speed Racer.

Again Thor did very well for that weekend.

Yeah it did pretty well, but since the opening wasn't huge you can bet that there's gonna be some idiots on here that percieve Thor's opening as a flop.

 

[UltimateJustin]

Video sales coupled with the potential strong reaction to the Avengers, could translate to a sequel that gets more people into the theater and delivers a more streamlined, faster movie that audiences can relate to. I wouldn't be surprised to see Thor 2 hit 80mph in the first act and that may be what the franchise needs to do to stay viable.

 

[KangConquers]

I'm predicting based on this weekend 190 million domestic; I hope that's enough to justify making a sequel.

Yes, it'll pass the threshold for a sequel, but I worry that it will be perceived as a mediocre outing. With stockholders and Disney executives looking at the numbers, it maybe difficult to convince them that a Thor 2 is worth doing.

 

[BigThor]

Video sales coupled with the potential strong reaction to the Avengers, could translate to a sequel that gets more people into the theater and delivers a more streamlined, faster movie that audiences can relate to. I wouldn't be surprised to see Thor 2 hit 80mph in the first act and that may be what the franchise needs to do to stay viable.

I think Thor's first act was hypest part of the film and that makes perfect sense because it's when Thor is at his most reackless.

So since Thor being humbled is out of the way, I'm sure the sequel is going to make good use of the more action oriented aspects of Thor.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm predicting based on this weekend 190 million domestic; I hope that's enough to justify making a sequel.

Yes, it'll pass the threshold for a sequel, but I worry that it will be perceived as a mediocre outing. With stockholders and Disney executives looking at the numbers, it maybe difficult to convince them that a Thor 2 is worth doing.

Marvel is a wholy owned subsidiary. Disney doesn't make the call on if it's getting a sequel. If Marvel can find the financing and a distributer, a sequel will be made. That's why Marvel having it's own studio is so huge.

The same can be said of Pixar. Disney only distributes the films, they make no calls on wheather or not Pixar makes a film or not.

 

[TheCorpulent1]

Is Disney distributing The Avengers, or is that still Paramount?

 

[Tony Stark]

Is Disney distributing The Avengers, or is that still Paramount?

Disney is distributing Avengers and Iron Man 3 and any Thor/Cap sequels. However the deal between Marvel and Disney on distribution is just like any other studio. The benefit is that Disney gets to report 100% of the profits.

 

[Vartha]

heh It still strikes me as being weird that Those Marvel movies will be distributed by the same company that does PotC. lol

 

[marcvader]

Their family now.

 

[Vartha]

lol Yeah I just hope Fandral stays with the Asgardians and not goes off buccaneering

 

[Blade X]

Watchmen's opening wasn't a disappointment though. It's follow up weeks were what was disappointing. It grossed $55 million first weekend and only $17 million the next.

You're half right. The WATCHMEN movie's opening was seen as a disappointment when compared to Zack Snider's previous R rated comic book movie adaption, 300, which had an opening weekend of $70 million. Also, the fact that WATCHMEN is a critically acclaimed and best selling tpb (the original single issue comic book maxi series DID NOT sell well) that so many people thought would be a huge hit at the box office, led to the opening weekend being a huge disappointment. The movie not having legs in it's follow up weeks just put the nail in that movies coffin.

 

[Vartha]

I actually don't mind it, as it's a fairly easy job, and you have a decent amount of freedom in doing it, but damn, some people are incapable of cleaning after themselves.

Indeed

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

You're half right. The WATCHMEN movie's opening was seen as a disappointment when compared to Zack Snider's previous R rated comic book movie adaption, 300, which had an opening weekend of $70 million. Also, the fact that WATCHMEN is a critically acclaimed and best selling tpb (the original single issue comic book maxi series DID NOT sell well) that so many people thought would be a huge hit at the box office, led to the opening weekend being a huge disappointment. The movie not having legs in it's follow up weeks just put the nail in that movies coffin.

Wow, you're right. I just checked the websites for tracking Watchmen was actually tracking for 65-70 million before its release and it underperformed severely.

 

[kedrell]

I'm predicting based on this weekend 190 million domestic; I hope that's enough to justify making a sequel.

Yes, it'll pass the threshold for a sequel, but I worry that it will be perceived as a mediocre outing. With stockholders and Disney executives looking at the numbers, it maybe difficult to convince them that a Thor 2 is worth doing.

190M is a good prediction. I'm hoping it can cross the 200M domestic threshold but that'll take pretty good(that is, above average) WOM. It doesn't need as good a multiplier as Star Trek or even Iron Man 1 to get there but it still needs better than the usual 2.5X multiplier range that films like this receive. It needs a 3.03X to do that which may happen or not. I think it'll have good WOM but I'd never make a wager on it doing so. And it should eventually get to about $400M world wide gross which puts it in X-Men territory(not too shabby for an unknown property) and definitely guarantees a sequel and nearly as likely an entire franchise. Every penny WW it makes over $300M is essentially profit. It's at $242M right now(TIH only made $263.4M WW in it's entire run) and another $158M WW(at least $100M from North America) is pretty easy to see happening. Thor has accomplished job #1: Proving itself as a worthwhile film commodity.

 

[DieSmiling]

Post memorial day isn't Summer either. Summer starts June 21'st and has for thousands of years.

Maybe in a technical sense, but realistically summer is Memorial Day weekend to Labor Day Weekend.

Has been for hundreds of years.

200 million domestic is very optimistic at this point... I'd say 170-180 million domestic is the most realistic prediction at this point.

 

[Kingslayer]

Indeed

Haha. I'm sure this doesn't apply to every town, but I just saw a showing tonight, on a Monday, mind you, and the theater was incredibly full. A lot of people stayed for the post-credits scene as well. Hopefully this bodes well for box office numbers. Perhaps this is the power of summer.

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't think a 3x multiplier is that much of a strech for a movie that started out at only 65.7.

There is absolutely no competition for Thor next weekend so I think the drop will be under 50%.

 

[kedrell]

If Thor makes 35M or better next weekend then I'll be more confident.