Thor's box office competition

Discussion in 'Thor' started by Still A ThorFan, Jan 1, 2011.

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  1. BigThor God of Thunder

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    If Thor happens to make 200 million domestically, it just MIGHT be able to make 500 million worldwide.

    *waits for disagreements*
     
  2. The Morningstar Registered

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    It it makes 200 million US than it'll probably get to 450 quite comfortably. So i wouldn't say you're far off.
     
  3. BigThor God of Thunder

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    Yep, that's why I said might since it's a bit of a stretch, but it is possible.
     
  4. Chewy REDACTED

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    I think it's going to make 450 quite comfortably either way. All it needs is decent drops and it should make 175 DOM and 275 OS.
     
  5. BigThor God of Thunder

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    So what do you think about 500 million Chewy?
     
  6. Chewy REDACTED

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    Unlikely but possible. I hope it can hold well enough to do it.
     
  7. The Morningstar Registered

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    I think anything above 400 million should be considered a success. Obviously the studio would like another Iron Man, but realistically, I think they knew, like everyone else should know, that wasn't on the cards.
     
  8. BigThor God of Thunder

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    Honestly, I think anything above 300 million should be cosidered a success with a movie that cost 150 million.
     
  9. The Morningstar Registered

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    If it was 300 million US then yea, that'd be a major success. But WW? Doesn't work like that. You gotta figure in marketing costs, distribution etc. Plus, the cinemas obviously get a cut of all that.

    So that 300 million WW is really like, 250 million WW, maybe even less.
     
  10. BigThor God of Thunder

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    True enough, I'll raise that number to 350 million then.
     
  11. Zant Registered

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    It does not need to reach 400 mil to get a sequel .
    Batman begins X men Origins and Star trek did not need to reach 400 mil to get sequels
     
  12. Chewy REDACTED

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    The studios get a higher % of the gross from the domestic profits so it's not as clean-cut as 400M = Sequel.

    However Thor making at least $25M more than it's budget domestically and also making 450M WW is definitely enough for a sequel.
     
  13. Evil Twin Registered

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    To pick a nit, how old do you think the Memorial Day and Labor Day holidays are? I agree with your essential point, but substitute decades for hundreds of years.

    I kind of wonder if the early overseas release and Rotten Tomatoes scores are a two-edged sword. Helped make the OW bigger, but also perhaps making it more front-loaded. At this point, I think a 2.8 multiplier is realistic because I simply don't think there's that big an interest outside of the internet boards specificially devoted to these types of properties.
     
  14. marvelman2006 Registered

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    I see thor dropping out at about 230 total in domestic sales. It will clearly beat priest this week and remain on top till pirates comes out, although I would love to see this movie beat pirates just because Im tired of the pirates craze.
     
  15. kedrell Fork&SpoonOperator

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    Correct. I think anything over $350M WW justifies a sequel as the studio will have made about $50M in profit just from the theatrical run(even more when you factor in Home Media & TV rights). But I'd say $400M WW gets you a trilogy(so long as the second one doesn't bomb unexpectedly). $450M WW and I doubt they'll ever stop making Thor movies(at least permanently).
     
  16. Tony Stark Armored Avenger!

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    The sequel is already greenlit, and has been before they ever finished post production.
     
  17. Chewy REDACTED

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    That's very shaky logic and not really true.
    It might be greenlit now but it absolutely was not before post production ended.
     
  18. kedrell Fork&SpoonOperator

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    I always figured a good rule of thumb was simply to double the base production budget(no adding the advertising budget or anything like that). Thor's is $150M not counting advertising costs(often which get mitigated by marketing tie-ins and stuff like that but we rarely get hard figures on anything to do with advertising). So doubling the budget most of the time should cover both the advertising budget as well and also what the theater owners get. After that it's all profit for the studio(and in this, world wide is really the only number that counts). I know it doesn't work exactly like this and every studio and every film has a slightly different deal but as I said, this is probably a good rule of thumb most of the time.
     
  19. kedrell Fork&SpoonOperator

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    Maybe, but if a property(especially a superhero property given to serialization) proves itself a viable theatrical commodity then I doubt Hollywood is ever gonna let that go. It's like a dog with a bone. It may get put on a shelf from time to time as grosses go down but it'll never get abandoned.
     
  20. Marvin Registered

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    not with the film they made no.

    Which is why it's kinda strange hearing thor fans talk of this film they way they do when each of them know how amazing and effective a thor film can really be.

    I hope it makes it to 220
     
  21. The Morningstar Registered

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    It's nothing to do with the quality of the film. This film was great and effective. It wasn't a masterpiece, no. Neither was Iron Man.

    It's to do with Iron Man being the James Bond of superheroes. It's a much easier sell than Thor, the He-Man of superheroes. Plus, Iron Man had the big return of the one and only Robert Downey Jr. Thor had the return of... Chris Hemsworth?

    Also, Iron Man had ZERO competetion. Thor has Fast Five and Pirates of the Caribbean to deal with.
     
  22. kedrell Fork&SpoonOperator

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    True, with Fast Five right behind it and also add in that it was a Mother's Day weekend(both of which IM1 didn't have) and I think if it hadn't been facing those that it could have likely opened as much as $10M higher.
     
  23. Marvin Registered

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    well iron man did have crappy competition i've always believed that, even though some would argue Indy 4 was a buzz stealer.

    I think your argument makes the most sense when applied to the products that exist as they are, of course this thor movie is a harder sell than the Iron man Movie of 2008 and 2010 even moreso.

    My point is that there is a thor movie and more to the point a thor trailer that exists in our minds that drag everyone to the cineplex kicking and screaming.This thor though solid definitely is not that film.
     
  24. The Morningstar Registered

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    Well yea I see your point. This movie wasn't ground breaking. But it was a fun, summer romp with pretty much faultless acting across the board. With the two leads, Thor and Loki, played by complete unknowns and putting in amazing performances. Especially Hiddleston. Which let's be honest, is extremely rare for these kinds of movies.

    I just think 400-450 mill was a realistic expectation. I don't think the studio was expecting another Iron Man here.
     
  25. Spider-Fan SHHFFL 2014/2019 Champion

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    It got writers, but wasn't greenlit.

    I am still confident a sequel happens, though.
     
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