Superman Returns TW's assessment of SR - TW's 01/31 quarterly report will shed light

[lexlives]

TW releases its quarterly report on Wednesday 01/31 and will also give an overview of the corporation's 2006 performance.

This will be the first real indication of their assesment of Superman Returns. What they do or do not say will say a lot.

Theatrically its been a bad year for WB with 4 major disappointments - Poseidon, Superman Returns, Ant Bully and most recently Guardian. Happy Feet was their only real major film success in 2006. It will be interesting to see how they spin this. They may not even mention the disappointments, but only the success of Happy Feet and the fact WB has more Ocars noms than any studio this year.

Home Entertainment - as in DVD sales, WB did maintain its lead over other studios in this venue in 2006, but it lost share due to generally weak performances by its theatrical DVD releases - with the exception of Potter.

WB had only one film - Potter - do better than 100 million in DVD sales. In previous years it has had multiple films do better than 100 mil. Its loss of share to Sony, Fox and Disney came because of very strong DVD sales for those companies during the 4th quarter - 100 mil+ for Da Vinci, Click, Talledge Nights (extremely impressive as TN was only released in mid-December) for Sony, POTC, Cars and Chicken Little for Disney and X-Men, Ice Age 2 and Walk The Line for Fox.

WB's extensive catalog saved it in the HVM this year. Given this, the question is will Superman be mentioned at all in terms of DVD sales and, if so, will it be just the UC or will SR get a mention? Watch how WB states this. Will they release units sold numbers?

So mark Wednesday on your calendar as we will get the first real hint of TW's assesment of SR. This will be the first marker.

BTW, the next marker will be ShoWest in about 6 weeks. Horn will be there and announce presumably the tentpole film for 2009. He announced the BB sequel last year as 2008's tentpole. As an SR sequel has not gotten a greenlight and won't in the coming 6 weeks, it will be interesting to see what Horn announces as WB's 2009 tentpole. Tentpole status is important as that film gets the best available summer calendar slot of all the the WB summer films.

The key piece here will be the Q&A with media reporters as you can be sure one of the first questions Horn will get is the status of the SR sequel. His response will be the next marker of TW/WB's assesment of SR.

Both events should make for interesting analysis.

 

[Pickle-El]

Oh lexlives and his theories.....

There will be a sequel with Singer attached. All the spin in the world won't change that. It just won't.

 

[dude stannis]

When the day comes, can somebody other than lexlives post the report?

 

[JamalYIgle]

TW releases its quarterly report on Wednesday 01/31 and will also give an overview of the corporation's 2006 performance.

This will be the first real indication of their assesment of Superman Returns. What they do or do not say will say a lot.

Theatrically its been a bad year for WB with 4 major disappointments - Poseidon, Superman Returns, Ant Bully and most recently Guardian. Happy Feet was their only real major film success in 2006. It will be interesting to see how they spin this. They may not even mention the disappointments, but only the success of Happy Feet and the fact WB has more Ocars noms than any studio this year.

Home Entertainment - as in DVD sales, WB did maintain its lead over other studios in this venue in 2006, but it lost share due to generally weak performances by its theatrical DVD releases - with the exception of Potter.

WB had only one film - Potter - do better than 100 million in DVD sales. In previous years it has had multiple films do better than 100 mil. Its loss of share to Sony, Fox and Disney came because of very strong DVD sales for those companies during the 4th quarter - 100 mil+ for Da Vinci, Click, Talledge Nights (extremely impressive as TN was only released in mid-December) for Sony, POTC, Cars and Chicken Little for Disney and X-Men, Ice Age 2 and Walk The Line for Fox.

WB's extensive catalog saved it in the HVM this year. Given this, the question is will Superman be mentioned at all in terms of DVD sales and, if so, will it be just the UC or will SR get a mention? Watch how WB states this. Will they release units sold numbers?

So mark Wednesday on your calendar as we will get the first real hint of TW's assesment of SR. This will be the first marker.

BTW, the next marker will be ShoWest in about 6 weeks. Horn will be there and announce presumably the tentpole film for 2009. He announced the BB sequel last year as 2008's tentpole. As an SR sequel has not gotten a greenlight and won't in the coming 6 weeks, it will be interesting to see what Horn announces as WB's 2009 tentpole. Tentpole status is important as that film gets the best available summer calendar slot of all the the WB summer films.

The key piece here will be the Q&A with media reporters as you can be sure one of the first questions Horn will get is the status of the SR sequel. His response will be the next marker of TW/WB's assesment of SR.

Both events should make for interesting analysis.

The intersting part is you actually make it sound like you know what your talking about.

 

[Showtime]

The intersting part is you actually make it sound like you know what your talking about.

t:

 

[bunk]

Wait, so the reports not out yet? Close thread.

 

[Paste Pot Pete]

the fact WB has more Ocars noms than any studio this year.

One of which belongs to..dun dun..Superman Returns, thank you very much.

WB's mind is already made. The sequel is a go.

 

[true316]

Lexlives, I'll say this: you've got tenacity.

Just think if you turned this passion towards a cause like world peace!

 

[lexlives]

When the day comes, can somebody other than lexlives post the report?

You can read the report yourself by googling TW and quarterly report by mid-afternoon on Wednesday. Variety will cover it on Thursday as well as other media magazines.

 

[lexlives]

The intersting part is you actually make it sound like you know what your talking about.

Yeah - scary isn't it LOL!

Really, all one has to do is surf the net - this info is out there.

The interesting thing about ShoWest is that if they follow their usual pattern and announce a tentpole for 2009 we know it will not be an SR sequel as there is not even a script yet or a budget and no greenlight would come till then. That means if SR gets a go for summer 2009 it will not get WB's number 1 slot that summer - whatever date it turns out to be. Does that mean WB might go for an XMAS release instead because the competiton will be less?

 

[TheComicbookKid]

I don't care what the report says. I'm getting my Singer Superman sequel.


Lexlives, you're as bad as the comic character. Let it go. It's Superman, the world will always be on his side.

 

[BMM]

So… Time Warner announced its 2006 Full-Year & Fourth-Quarter earnings today… Overall revenues are up from 2005. Time Warner’s film division saw a decrease in revenues of 11% from its previous record year, which isn’t much of a surprise given the year its films have had.

Notable current year theatrical highlights are Superman Returns, Happy Feet, and The Departed, all of which earned Academy Award nominations.

Also, Warner Home Video ranked #1 for the sixth consecutive year. Notable 2006 home video releases included Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire and Superman Returns as well as New Line’s Wedding Crashers.


http://ir.timewarner.com/downloads/4Q06earnings.pdf

FILMED ENTERTAINMENT (Warner Bros. Entertainment & New Line Cinema)

Full-Year Results

Revenues decreased 11% ($1.3 billion) to $10.6 billion, due to difficult comparisons to the prior year record performance at Warner Bros. In 2005, Warner Bros. finished #1 in worldwide theatrical box office, driven by the success of Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Batman Begins. In addition, a strong theatrical slate contributed to a record performance at Warner Home Video during 2005. These difficult comparisons and the lower performance of the theatrical slate in 2006 led to a decline at Warner Home Video in 2006.

Adjusted Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization declined 7% ($90 million) to $1.1 billion, reflecting lower contributions from theatrical product attributable to the decrease in Revenues. This decline was offset partly by improved contributions from television product and consumer products. The current year results also included lower restructuring charges ($28 million).

Operating Income decreased 11% ($101 million) to $784 million, due primarily to the decline in Adjusted Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization.

Fourth-Quarter Results

Revenues declined 15% ($531 million) to $3.1 billion. Adjusted Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization decreased 39% ($151 million) to $240 million. The prior year quarter reflected restructuring charges of $33 million. Operating Income declined 48% ($141 million) to $155 million, due largely to lower Adjusted Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization.

Highlights

Notable theatrical releases during the current year included Warner Bros.’ Superman Returns, Happy Feet and The Departed. Through January 28, 2007, these three films have generated worldwide box office receipts of approximately $391 million, $355 million and $264 million, respectively.

Warner Home Video ranked #1 for the sixth consecutive year, garnering an industry-leading 18.3% share of home video sales in the U.S. Notable 2006 home video releases included Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire and Superman Returns as well as New Line’s Wedding Crashers.

At the 64th Annual Golden Globe Awards, Warner Bros. received a total of five awards: Best Foreign Language Film for Letters from Iwo Jima; Best Director, Motion Picture for Martin Scorsese, The Departed; Best Original Song for Happy Feet’s “The Song Of The Heart;” Best Original Score for The Painted Veil; and Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Drama for Kyra Sedgwick in TNT’s The Closer.

Among last week’s nominations for the 79th Academy Awards were 18 for Warner Bros., with five nominations for The Departed (including Best Motion Picture, Directing, Actor in a Supporting Role and Adapted Screenplay); five for Blood Diamond (including Actor in a Leading Role and Actor in a Supporting Role); four for Letters from Iwo Jima (including Best Motion Picture, Directing and Original Screenplay); and one each for Happy Feet (Best Animated Feature Film), The Good German, Poseidon and Superman Returns. New Line’s Little Children received nominations for Actress in a Leading Role, Actor in a Supporting Role and Adapted Screenplay. In addition, Pan’s Labyrinth from Picturehouse, a joint venture between New Line and HBO, received six nominations, including Best Foreign Language Film and Original Screenplay.

How this pans out for Superman films? I don't know.

 

[dude stannis]

This shed nothing. Except SR is doing well on DVD and it's getting an Academy Award Nomination. We already knew these things.

 

[Brainiac 2009]

Another Lexlives prediction offbase.

 

[Showtime]

Superman Returns was listed under three out of the four highlight points; NOTEABLE THEATRICAL RELEASES, NOTEABLE VIDEO RELEASES, & ACADEMY AWARD NOMINEES. What also should be noted, although Returns wasn't mentioned by name, it contributed to LOWER PERFORMANCE OF THE THEATRICAL SLATE. Granted, this wasn't due to the WW GROSS of 391 Milllion but the inability for the theaterical numbers compensate for the high budget. WB had bigger problems with Lady in the Water, Ant Bully, and Poseidon.

 

[LL2K2]

In other words, it's a profit report. And nowhere did it mention that SR negatively impacted it.

Anyone have that "WRONG!" gif? Because that's what we need here.

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

you probably want to take a look at the opinion of a non-biased media source from the business world. Company press releases like the one above tend to be a bit unreliable.. Here's the Street's take on WB's 4th Quarter numbers. (I own stock in the company BTW).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aviNvS7tmRoQ&refer=home

At the film division, sales slumped 15 percent to $3.09 billion, missing the $3.5 billion average estimate of five analysts. Profit dropped 39 percent to $240 million.

The tepid performance of Time Warner movies at the box office in the summer led to lower home video sales in the fourth quarter. DVD releases including ``Superman Returns'' weren't enough to match DVD sales of ``Harry Potter'' a year earlier.

basically the company had a decent quarter in spite of the fact that it's film and home video businesses didnt meet expectations. They dont break it down per film but seeing as how SR was WB's big summer film tentpole you can draw your own conclusions. The company's cable business is making up for the ground lost elsewhere.

 

[Showtime]

you probably want to take a look at the opinion of a non-biased media source from the business world. Company press releases like the one above tend to be a bit unreliable.. Here's the Street's take on WB's 4th Quarter numbers. (I own stock in the company BTW).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aviNvS7tmRoQ&refer=home

basically the company had a decent quarter in spite of the fact that it's film and home video businesses didnt meet expectations. They dont break it down per film but seeing as how SR was WB's big summer film tentpole you can draw your own conclusions. The company's cable business is making up for the ground lost elsewhere.

I wouldn't draw conclusions based only on Superman Returns, but also movies that completely bombed such as Ant Bully, Poseidon, and Lady in the Water.

 

[dark_b]

SR didnt bombed but it also didnt make a lot of profit. superman survived.

 

[Kid_Kaos]

Yeah, that report didn't really tell us anything but praise the Oscar nominations (even for turds like "Poseidon"!) and some numbers we knew months ago.

I guess bloomberg got it right, SR was mediocre. No profit - no loss, basically a >nothing<. They only make money now, with cable/DVD sales. I have no idea how WB want to go on with that franchise with such a setup.

 

[bunk]

Yeah, that report didn't really tell us anything but praise the Oscar nominations (even for turds like "Poseidon"!) and some numbers we knew months ago.

I guess bloomberg got it right, SR was mediocre. No profit - no loss, basically a >nothing<. They only make money now, with cable/DVD sales. I have no idea how WB want to go on with that franchise with such a setup.

You just answered your own question.

 

[Elijya]

You just answered your own question.

No loss and little gain is fine when you're making small movies, that's why Kevin Smith keeps getting movies. You make a movie that costs $20 mil, it takes in $10-30 at the Box Office, and another $30 on DVD. That's a minimal gain (no loss) film. And it's fine when the budget is low, under $30 mil.

When you're talking about films that have budgets exceeding $100 Million, it's simply not worth the time and effort, nor the risk, for it to only make minimal gain. When a property has already proven itself capable of minimal gain with a $100 million+ budget (in this case in excess of $200 million some reports have said), any movie executive in their right mind is either going to drastically change the formula behind the property (meaning talent) or direct that money towards more profitable projects

 

[Freddy_Krueger]

No profit - no loss, basically a >nothing<. They only make money now, with cable/DVD sales.

Ummm...yeah, exactly. It's making it's money back on DVD...like many other movies.

any movie executive in their right mind is either going to drastically change the formula behind the property (meaning talent) or direct that money towards more profitable projects

The difference is that WB had been trying for ten years to get a Superman project off the ground. They ended up with a film that was a critical success and had merely decent box office. The only formula they seem to want to change is to make the next film action oriented (and since Singer wants the same thing, there's no need in a change of talent).

 

[Armand Z Trip]

A writer for Bloomberg called the box office "tepid"? The street has spoken! The street said WB profit is up, that is all they care about. They don't care what division of a company the profit comes from. Adult diapers, depleted uranium tipped missiles, ***** pills, pork bellies, what matters is the bottom line, and the WB's is up.

There will be a Singer directed sequel to SR. Will there be sequels to Poseidon, Ant Bully and The Lady in the Water? I'm thinking no. A movie studio had a less than stellar year? It has happened before. What does this report mean for the SR sequel? As they would say in the land where SR was filmed, sweet **** all.

 

[chosen1]

Oh lexlives and his theories.....

There will be a sequel with Singer attached. All the spin in the world won't change that. It just won't.

well see about that.