Where will humanity be in the next 10 years?

[The End]

Excuse me,

I just think that this question is not only more immediate but much more interesting (seeing as we can see the groundwork for the technologies over the next few years and beyond) and we can get a much clearer picture of our immediate future, and that picture is... well,

To put it one way.


"We live in the science fiction of our youth" - Robert Charles Wilson

I'm bored of discussions around what things will be like in 300 years because people are missing the immediate picture, the big picture, which is the possibility... of a world within our lifetimes that is like stepping into science fiction. Whether it is more dystopian cyber-punk than utopian paradise remains to be seen but I say with no exaggeration that as good as we have it now, it is likely, in fact mathematically predictable, that it will be many times better in the near future. Not 100 years from now, but 10 years from now.

Let's take a look at what Moore's Law says about our future.

The number of transistors per chip doubles every 18 months, essentially computer power is improving exponentially.

You see this today in how common ipads and iphones and all these handheld devices are that are better and more powerful than the desktop computers of even the recent past. A kid with an smart phone has more access to information than the world's most powerful 20, even 15 years ago.

Here's a great video that explains Moore's Law without any of the futurist speculation; just explaining the pure science of it all.

[YT]rtI5wRyHpTg[/YT]

Trying to grasp this stuff as a layman.

Fascinating; we're reaching the atomic size.

We're between 1 and 2 billion transistors on a good computer.

According to this guy (who's a smart ass professor) probably by 2025 there will only be 3 or 4 atoms of space and it will be a challenge to keep Moore's Law going at that point.

But then he talks about building computers with quantum mechanics, and qbits, and keeping Moore's Law going that way.

Very exciting. As good as our technology is now, picture how good its going to be by 2025 according to Moore's Law.

I don't know how old you youngsters are but I'm 29 years old and even within my lifetime there has been massive leaps in the progress and affordability of technology.

I grew up with VCRs, audio cassettes, tvs that felt like they weighed a ton, video games that were loaded with cassettes and took maybe an hour to load, etc. Perhaps a good metaphor for the speed of progress in a way that's easily recognizable even to a child growing up through the 80s and 90s is video game consoles. Leap after leap after leap in power, speed, graphics until we have these huge, cinematic, almost fully realized worlds of today's games. (Nearly every technology I used frequently throughout my youth is now obsolete)

And on the horizon, this year, its going to take another massive leap with the Oculus Rift. Virtual Reality was a fad in the 90s, something that people dreamed about, thinking forward to the future in pure sci fi terms with films like Lawnmower Man. And they've cracked it - we now have the technology to really make a person feel like they're in a game. HD screens that fill up your entire peripheral vision, 3D, in effect objects feel like they're only inches from your face (according to descriptions I've read), head tracking so that when you turn your head in reality you turn your head in the game, just another level of immersion. And as good as that is, it will only get better over the years, they'll find ways to involve ALL the senses into the game.

There's also 3D printing which, just like all the other major information technologies, will improve and become more affordable as time goes on. People will share via open-source and P2P all sorts of objects.

You take a look at the robotics competition held by DARPA to build disaster-response robots - its just amazing how far robotics has come in recent years. We will see robots more and more in our everyday lives over the next few years, from delivery drones to security machines to fast food robots to medical robots roaming around hospitals and on and on.

Google has bought up a number of the top robotics companies. In fact it was the Google owned Schaft robot that won the DARPA challenge.

http://www.popsci.com/article/technology/robot-just-won-darpa-robotics-challenge

Futurist Ray Kurzweil is working as the Director of Engineering for Google to develop machine learning and language processing.

Some or Ray's predictions are wild; but I'd say even modest predictions simply based on current technology and the application of Moore's Law will yield incredible things in our near future.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/10/business/ray-kurzweil-future-of-human-life/

 

[Thundercrack85]

I think 300 is too much, and 10 too little.

The Xbox One will probably see its last releases.

Maybe we'll see the first luxury self-driving cars hit the market?

 

[The End]

10 is just about right just thinking about that as the potential time in which Moore's Law cannot go any further!

I think, of course I can't predict, but I think robots will be very common in 2024/2025. They'll be all over the place and there be a big social issue surrounding jobs and resources.

 

[zeroapoc]

So, what are your thought on a possible technological singularity?

 

[Thundercrack85]

They'll need a replacement for silicon. Maybe nanotubes.

Still, we got ten more years of Moore's Law.

 

[The End]

As a layman I'm somewhat limited in my understanding but it seems possible. I know there's a group right now that has billions of funding in trying to reverse engineer the brain, Google are doing their thing with building computer technology that better understands natural language, and there's people working on quantum computing and as far as I understand it quantum computing will enable them to keep Moore's Law going way past 2025 when there would be just a few atoms separating the transistors on a chip.

It's my understanding that the 'singularity' (the point in which artificial intelligence exceeds human intelligence) is supposed to happen late 2020s or sometime into the 2030s.

I don't know if it will happen. Even if it doesn't, the technology will still be damn sweet and maybe we'll be at a point in which we can use it to solve a great deal of humanity's problems.

I'm not exaggerating - I think information technology is altering how younger generations think about key issues and altering it in a very quick way; faster than governments can really keep up with, and in the future people will just be very happy to share resources without a monetary economy.

If we look at this chart and how technology has altered even the worst off of countries (all these various circles represent different nations)

Progress seen in terms of life expectancy and income per person isn't just improving its improving at a faster rate.

I think even without true AI we'll have technologies to amplify human intelligence (to a degree, we already have that, the speed we can look up info and collaborate with people without even meeting them means we can solve complex problems in weeks when in the past it would have taken months or longer)

A dozen years ago we didn't use search engines.

A few years ago we didn't use social networking.

Things are going to look very different by 2025, and the singularity may be here by the 2030s but even if it doesn't happen I don't think it matters that much.

 

[Thundercrack85]

When these people say that artificial intelligence will exceed human intelligence, what do they mean exactly?

I never understood how they quantify human intelligence, in terms relating to modern computers.

 

[MrMaooz]

Skynet stuff.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Where will humanity be in the next six months?

 

[The Apocalypse]

Where will humanity be tomorrow?

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Where will humanity be at lunchtime?

 

[Superwoman Prime]

On the show Caprica we see disposable computers literally as thin as paper. Michio Kaku, theoretical physicist, claimed in 2010-2011 that we'll see this technology by 2030. That many think the internet is ubiquitous right now is cute.

 

[Tron Bonne]

After seeing Her, I think that's a solid picture of what the near future is going to look like. Most movies over predict the future, but I feel like that one got it to a pretty grounded note in how the future will look based on how things seem to be going. Except the whole evolving AI thing. I mean, maybe, I don't know much about that ****.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Also Robot & Frank did a good job, with its not quite but almost artificial intelligence helper-robots.

 

[Quasimod0]

Well, we might have a Justice League movie by then.

 

[Thundercrack85]

That's the thing about AI, you could potentially have a robot so well programmed, that it has a programmed response to any scenario. It would appear sentient for all intents, and purposes, but it really isn't.

Then again, there are those who argue we don't have free will, so maybe it's all just potato, potato in the end.

 

[The End]

I mean, if all our brain processes are 'mechanical' so to speak, and there's every reason to think they are physical processes, why couldn't we replicate that with computers? What would be the barrier exactly preventing us from eventually figuring it out?

I think one of the tricky things is being able to tell that a computer is sentient.

I don't think the turing test is sufficient. I think a computer will pass the turing test long before we ever consider it to be a true AI. Ray says it is significant but I'm not convinced; I think a human judge would be convinced by a computer that's been sufficiently programmed with natural language, that its human. Ray thinks a computer will pass the turing test by 2029 - he's even put a bet on it http://longbets.org/1/

So, how could we tell? Would it simply start referring to itself, referring to its own existence, even its own rights? Will it start telling us what it wants?

 

[Immortalfire]

Very likely, we'll be right where we are now.

 

[The End]

In what way? Our technology will be much the same? The progress of human condition will remain where it is right now?

 

[The End]

Here are some of the predictions of Ray Kurzweil. Much of this, we can already see the foundations for this sort of tech in Oculus Rift and Google Glass, so I'd say predictions involving VR and Augmented Reality are likely. Other things such as the emergence of AI I'm not so sure about.

2019

The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).

The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.

Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).

People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.

These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.

People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.

Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.

Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.

Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.

Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.

Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.

Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.

Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.

Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.

Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.

Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.

Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.

Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.

All students have access to computers.

Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.

Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.

Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.

People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.

Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).

Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.

Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist

Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.

People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.

Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.

Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.

Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.

Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.

While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.

Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface

Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.

The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)

Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

2029

A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.

The vast majority of computation is done by computers and not by human brains.

Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain.
Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.

Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.
The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears. The implants are either permanent or removable. They allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears.

Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available. They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence.

Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers "know" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings.

Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment. This technology is in widespread use.

Most communication occurs between humans and machines as opposed to human-to-human.
The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans. Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want.

The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real "robot rights" movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have. The existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic augmentation and of larger numbers of other people with less extreme cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what constitutes a "human being."

Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in all areas.

Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact. Most people admit and accept this new truth.

Reverse engineering of the human brain completed

Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence

Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed

 

[Immortalfire]

Too..many words....

In what way? Our technology will be much the same? The progress of human condition will remain where it is right now?

Technology will improve, sure. But I doubt as humans, we're going to grow extra brains or anything.

 

[SuperFerret]

We'll have some nicer stuff, but we'll still be violent, hateful tardmonkeys.

 

[Llama_Shepherd]

Mostly the same, but with slightly thinner, faster technology.

How different does 2004 look to now?

 

[The End]

Pretty different.

Willing to bet that none of you used social media in 2004 to the extent that you do now. Willing to bet that many of you carry around smart phones or ipads or the equivalent and you didn't in 2004. No one talked about 3D printing in 2004. Virtual reality wasn't feasible in 2004. People didn't organize mass protests like they did in Eqypt with the use of social media in 2004. Bitcoin wasn't a thing in 2004. The number of transistors in a chip has sextupled since 2004.

If you actually think about it; its amazing how quickly technology is improving, and its improving at a faster rate, so yes, we can expect the next 10 years to yield ever more exciting technology and ever more exciting effects on society.

 

[The End]

Transistor count -


Pentium 4 Prescott - 112,000,000 transistors in 2004.

Itanium 2 - 592,000,000 transistors in 2004.

Intel's 10-Core Xion Westmare-EX - 2.5 billion transistors in 2012.