My updated thoughts:
People are sleeping way too much on Corey Booker. I know that he hit road bumps earlier in the year, but he played the tax debate and the Alabama special election perfectly and has put himself back in the conversation. Plus, Booker's groundwork already puts him in the front of the pack in terms of campaign infrastructure. The only one who is in a better position in that regard is Biden (I include Sanders there...Sanders may have ran for President and has national recognition, but his campaign infrastructure was always very sloppy and very disorganized, a slightly more disciplined version of the Trump campaign...nothing makes me think that has changed). I'd go so far as to say Booker/Brown could be the second coming of Obama/Biden.
Speaking of, I am now selling Biden, who I was previously very high on. Frankly, I have heard things from some Hill staffers that makes me suspect that he has a #MeToo moment coming his way if he delves back into the spotlight. It is more akin to Bush Sr. than Blake Farenthold (that is to say, Biden is an old man who has gotten handsy, rather than an outright predator). But if he jumps in, it'll come out (it might anyway) and it will sink him.
I think Harris is going to get lost in the noise. She won't be the most progressive in the race. She won't be the most well known woman nor the most vocal advocate for women (more on that later). She is just going to get lost in the mix if she jumps in in 2020. That being said, being everyone's second choice could work in her favor if the field is packed. Its the second choice who will be able to bring in other candidates' supporters once the initial losers drop out following Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. So I'm not writing her off entirely. Especially since she has been building a really good ground game.
As to the most well known and vocal woman, Gilibrand's stock is going through the roof right now. If a woman is going to be the nominee, it is going to be her. Plus, her going head to head with the President, and not letting him push her around nor laying down and taking it (as Clinton did) is scoring her points. In terms of likelihood, she is in my top 3.
Another person whose stock is on the rise is Sherrod Brown. He really came out strong on the tax debate. He has a tough re-election ahead, but if he survives it...he will be in the discussion. I'm not sure if he'll run (I'm not sure that he wants to run). But I think, whoever the candidate is (unless it is Sanders as a Sanders/Brown ticket would be too left), Brown will be on the VP shortlist. And if he runs himself...he will be a force to be reckoned with. He is quietly one of the most influential figures in DC and the Democratic Party, his progressive/liberal credentials trump Bernie Sanders (yep, Brown is more progressive than Sanders, he just doesn't shamelessly promote it as much), and unlike Sanders...he has the discipline, respect, and connections to put together a successful presidential campaign. However, it will be hard to build the infrastructure and raise the funds that he needs when he is facing a very tight re-election bid. The more serious contenders will have to have their operations ready to go by early 2019. It'll be hard to build that while also having a street fight in Ohio.
The person whose stock I think has taken the biggest hit in the past month or so (aside from Al Franken who is out of this discussion entirely) is Bernie Sanders. Despite being one of the most influential voices in American politics, he has been all but silent on Alabama and the #MeToo movement. He has offered some platitudes. But for a guy who wants to be President, he ought to be leading. He isn't. That will remind people of his silence on BLM and his naive statements such as "if you fix the economy, you'll end racism" (paraphrasing). If Sanders wants to be POTUS, he has to lead. He has made a huge tactical error in letting Corey Booker and Kirsten Gilibrand lead as he sits on the sidelines.
He has other things that have hurt his stock though. Firstly, there will be too many progressives in the race. Sanders, Harris, possibly Warren, possibly Brown, and a few others. They are going to split the vote and let a more values based candidate (i.e. Gilibrand and Booker) take the nomination.
But more importantly, I think people are slowly but surely getting over him. If Alabama has shown anything, its that people are fatigued with Trumpism. The nastiness of politics is taking its toll. People are going to want a Reagan figure. They are going to want optimism and civility. Sanders isn't that guy. They are getting enough fear mongering and finger wagging from Trump. Booker and Gilibrand are both values based candidates who can run on messages of optimism. That ship has sailed for Sanders. And that will haunt him.
A few final people to keep an eye on: Deval Patrick. He is trying desperately to raise his national profile. He is failing. But all it takes is one story going viral and he is in the mix. But right now, I rank him in the Martin O'Malley-tier. Steve Bullock is in the same boat. He is trying to become nationally relevant, but he hasn't had a breakthrough moment yet. Also, keep an eye on Eric Garcetti. He may run. He is young, charismatic, energetic, and will be able to raise money. But jumping from mayor of a major city to POTUS is a tall order. Giuliani tried it and he had far more name recognition. It went no where. I have no reason to think Garcetti will have better results, other than the fact that we are now in post-Trump America. The rule book has been torn up. So he is worth watching.
So in recap, if I were ranking likelihood of being the nominee today, it would look something like:
1) Corey Booker
2) Kirsten Gilibrand
3) Kamala Harris
Keep in mind, this can change at the drop of a dime. Two months ago my list would've been:
1) Joe Biden
2) Al Franken
3) Bernie Sanders
Politics is a fickle mistress. Who knows what things will look like next month.
