Wonder Woman 2 box office thread

[mclay18]

It's still over a year and seven months away, but I figure it'd be fun speculating how much Wonder Woman 2 will make, in comparison to its predecessor.

Will it be a box office titan like Black Panther was this past February? Will it perform akin to Thor: Ragnarok, higher than its predecessor but not a huge boost? I can't see this making less than $700M worldwide myself. Poll is below and expires after the November 2019 opening weekend.

 

[UncleSam1776]

I selected $801 million to $900M

Prediction: Sequel does slightly better overseas than its predecessor, but earns less domestically. (380M Domestic / $440M Overseas / $820M WW)

No chance of a Black Panther performance due to audience demographics and overseas market. Black Panther demo was strong with Blacks, Caucasians & Hispanics in both male and female.

According to comScore, 37 percent of ticket buyers were African-American. Caucasians made up the next largest group (35 percent), followed by Hispanics (18 percent). That sort of demographic breakdown is unheard of for a marquee superhero tentpole.

DCEU films are not huge hits overseas. The only DCEU movie to gross over $500M overseas was BvS. This is not an issue for the MCU as the last 3 films released have all grossed over $520M overseas.

 

[mclay18]

Typically, first sequels to well-received films get domestic bumps. There have been a few exceptions (like a few MCU installments), but still... it would be surprising if WW2 made less domestically than the first pic. The average o.w. bump for an MCU sequel tends to be in the 30-33% range, and WW was as well-received as them.

Going by my calculations, WW2 could hit $136M-$140M opening weekend. If it performs similarly to the second CA film, with a 2.73x multiplier, it gets to $383M domestic and $800M worldwide. Or if it opens higher, like the second HG film with $155M-$158M, it narrowly outgrosses the first WW film and slightly higher international total.

You have event films like the first Avengers and Black Panther where you have a four-quadrant film that no one has seen before. Avengers 2 made less than its predecessor, and I'm sure BP2 won't be immune to an A2-sized slump.

 

[kingcharmingman]

I think bvs mos die hard fans in the possibility of not getting sequel will come to support ww2.
They may try hard to stop dceu reboot.

I think mos bvs die hard fans may not like the first ww as they love bvs.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think less than a billion.

 

[mclay18]

I think bvs mos die hard fans in the possibility of not getting sequel will come to support ww2.
They may try hard to stop dceu reboot.

I think mos bvs die hard fans may not like the first ww as they love bvs.

What does that have to do with WW2's box office potential? WB is going to let Patty Jenkins do whatever she wants with the franchise, after how well it fared with audiences and critics. Jenkins isn't going to do a soft DCU reboot with a sequel.

 

[Jonwo]

I think WW2 has a shot of breaking the November record. I reckon it'll increase by $100-150m OS maybe more. It does a fair bit of competition though from Bond, Death on the Nile, a potential X-Men film and Frozen 2.

 

[Ozbridge]

I think “Under 700M” should have been an option, just to be cautious.

 

[Samuron]

Honestly, I think 600-700 million.

I think it only did as well as it did domestically due to the a unique confluence of cultural issues.

I'd be happy to be wrong, but I don't think we'll see the same fever we did the first time around.

 

[Black Narcissus]

I think this makes less than the first, but still good enough to get the third movie.

 

[Juan1193]

I selected $801 million to $900M

Prediction: Sequel does slightly better overseas than its predecessor, but earns less domestically. (380M Domestic / $440M Overseas / $820M WW)

No chance of a Black Panther performance due to audience demographics and overseas market. Black Panther demo was strong with Blacks, Caucasians & Hispanics in both male and female.



DCEU films are not huge hits overseas. The only DCEU movie to gross over $500M overseas was BvS. This is not an issue for the MCU as the last 3 films released have all grossed over $520M overseas.

That historic demographic breakdown was for the African American audience. Hispanics have shown up in much larger numbers for a superhero film before, most notably for the DCEU.

Anyway I'm crossing my fingers for a billion , but I'll temper my expextations and say it'll march the first film.

 

[Milk Tray Guy]

$801 million to $900M

Maybe a little less than the first one, maybe a little more, but in that bracket. I don't believe Justice League's poor reception will have tarnished Wonder Woman's appeal or Gal Gadot's draw. Honestly, I've got more faith in WW2 at the moment that I have for any other planned DCEU movie.

 

[mclay18]

Here are my early predictions. I calculated the percentage growth for two MCU franchises for the second entry (CA2, GOTG2) as well as Bayformers, on opening weekend. The average percentage growth was 32% (lowest was 28% for TF2, GOTG2 was highest at 36%). If WW2 performs similarly, with a higher opening weekend (and multiple similar to Thor Ragnarok) we end up with this...

Opening weekend: $131.8M (28% higher) - $140M (36% higher)
Domestic total: $337.9M - $358M

I could see some major growth internationally, but I would say $800M at a minimum. Or I could be totally wrong and the film hits $175M-$200M opening weekend on route to $1 billion worldwide.

 

[Wonder89]

Here are my early predictions. I calculated the percentage growth for two MCU franchises for the second entry (CA2, GOTG2) as well as Bayformers, on opening weekend. The average percentage growth was 32% (lowest was 28% for TF2, GOTG2 was highest at 36%). If WW2 performs similarly, with a higher opening weekend (and multiple similar to Thor Ragnarok) we end up with this...

Opening weekend: $131.8M (28% higher) - $140M (36% higher)
Domestic total: $337.9M - $358M

I could see some major growth internationally, but I would say $800M at a minimum. Or I could be totally wrong and the film hits $175M-$200M opening weekend on route to $1 billion worldwide.

I think is absolutely too early for any prediction

 

[mclay18]

After looking at the poor performance by Disney's latest franchise entry, I'm thinking Warners should've stayed put with Wonder Woman 2's original date.

Star Wars is no longer an invincible franchise, and rival studios know that now.

 

[Dark Raven]

Can WW ever do MCU numbers? Can it ever get within even the top 30 highest grossing films of all time? Or top 20?

 

[UncleSam1776]

Can WW ever do MCU numbers? Can it ever get within even the top 30 highest grossing films of all time? Or top 20?

Domestically, WW did better than all MCU films with the exception of the Avengers movies & Black Panther. Even did better than Civil War. The main problem is the overseas market. Especially the Asian market (China, South Korea & Japan). I think it's going to be a while before another DC movie breaks into the billion dollar club.

 

[Dufusyte]

The first film did phenomenally in America due to repeat viewings. The sequel will not have the repeat viewership because it is not groundbreaking like the first.

The first film did poorly overseas because they were not familiar with the character "Wonder Woman." The sequel will do better overseas, now that it is the second major film with the character (or 4th if you include BvS/JL).

So the domestic will be worse but international better, so it will be a wash. A little under, when the dust settles, I'm afraid, due to the new "80's tone" which will not resonate overseas.

 

[Iceman]

I think it can do a bit more than the first, particularly overseas.

 

[Dufusyte]

People are expecting a sequel (naturally), with a similar tone to the first film. However WW1984 is not that sequel, so they are throwing a curve at everyone who thought the first film was great.

So, yeah, they are trying to shake off all the momentum that the first film had built up. Alot of people will not like the second, simply because it is not what they are expecting.

There is a saying in radio programming: "You can't give everyone what they want, and you can't give them what they need, but you *can* give them what they expect." So when you turn on a radio station, you find there what you expect, even though it might not be perfect. Alas, people walking into WW1984 are not going to find what they expect.

If they are dodging their first audience, are they seeking to draw in a new different market segment? Like, rope in all the fans of Lynda Carter's TV series? Is that a large segment of the population? It seems more people liked the first film than liked the TV series, so trading one segment for the other seems dubious.

 

[Ozbridge]

I voted for 800M to 900M, but the poll should have had a "Under 700M" option to cover all ground.

 

[valmont]

Bond 25 has been pushed back to 2020, WW84 will have more space to spread it's wings.

 

[Micromind]

Bond 25 has been pushed back to 2020, WW84 will have more space to spread it's wings.

Good !

 

[RomanticPenguin]

Best case scenario Aquaman/shazam/joker/the kitchen? are all received well. for branding/association reasons

WW84 gets good reviews and is received as well as the first

Hanz Zimmer produces some more MoS/interstellar/WW theme level memorable beat or beats

All the trailers are poppin like original WW

900-1b best case

but it'll change once we see the DC brand and more trailers over the next year

 

[kingcharmingman]

Too many factor for overseas viewer,
Arabians mostly dislike Gadot due to her citizenship,
Asians dont know much of WW, not very interested in female superhero and Gadot havent got strong name here.