Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 1

[Dark Raven]

Thing is, and I dont know maybe its just me, but I dont feel a hunger or any kind of hype for the Mummy movie. I think the Mummy is just going to be a film that kind of comes and goes without anyone really paying it any mind, like King Arthur.

It looks like a decently entertaining movie but I dont see peopel going gaga over it. WW on the other hand, I think the public is ready for a DC film they can really sink their teeth into.

The Mummy feels a hunger for you though. Or is that a zombie? What do Mummys do?

I want it to be a hit so WB green lights more CB movies of difficult kinds and for it to continue with it's vision. Different is always nice

I want them to greenlight more WW movies and other female superheroines. Don't want DC to be just doing mostly Batman and thinking only Batman related movies will do well.

 

[Micromind]

The Mummy feels a hunger for you though. Or is that a zombie? What do Mummys do?



I want them to greenlight more WW movies and other female superheroines. Don't want DC to be just doing mostly Batman and thinking only Batman related movies will do well.

So, you are not looking forward to Whedon's Batgirl ?

 

[kguillou]

Maybe now they'll FINALLY make a sequel to the 2009 animated movie which, IMO, remains DC's best animated film (TDKR animated feature is a close 2nd). That movie made me a fan of the character and always felt it was a perfect template for a live action film.

 

[Dark Raven]

So, you are not looking forward to Whedon's Batgirl ?

I think that could be okay, but for a long period of time it was only Batman and Superman in DC films, and no-one else. Maybe that ended when they actually put them together in film last year. Now it's Wonder Woman's time to shine, and hopefully other heroines in the future.

 

[dhandler01]

Thing is, and I dont know maybe its just me, but I dont feel a hunger or any kind of hype for the Mummy movie. I think the Mummy is just going to be a film that kind of comes and goes without anyone really paying it any mind, like King Arthur.

It looks like a decently entertaining movie but I dont see peopel going gaga over it. WW on the other hand, I think the public is ready for a DC film they can really sink their teeth into.

I think the Mummy will do well overseas...but I dont see it doing big numbers here. Tom Cruise movies dont open huge anymore (Jack Reacher movies didnt and even MI Rogue Nation only did $55 million) and I just dont see people flocking to it though I think it will be pretty good.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Thing is, and I dont know maybe its just me, but I dont feel a hunger or any kind of hype for the Mummy movie. I think the Mummy is just going to be a film that kind of comes and goes without anyone really paying it any mind, like King Arthur.

It looks like a decently entertaining movie but I dont see peopel going gaga over it. WW on the other hand, I think the public is ready for a DC film they can really sink their teeth into.

It's not just you. I've felt the same way about most of the big releases around WW. I mean, was anyone outside their franchises' hardcore fan base calling for Pirates 5 or Aliens 6 (or whatever number it is)? Is anyone really clamoring for a King Arthur-verse (answer: apparently not) or the monster-verse Universal keeps trying and failing to start? The only thing these movies have done, at least for me, is make WW stand out as a film that's at least trying something different.

 

[Micromind]

Franchises that I think have run out of their appeal (for those who are not hard core fans)
Pirates, Mummy, Transformers, Cars all in June.

 

[jokesonm3]

You know with the hype surrounding this film recently, WW can easily gross up to $85M+ on Friday, but what about Saturday and Sunday?

If the films reviews are poor it would heavily affect its Saturday and Sunday numbers and its overall opening weekend.

Happened to BvS last year and it could happened to WW soon.

Note: a portion of Sundays numbers for BvS could've been because of easter sunday that week

 

[dhandler01]

Pirates is tracking well ($90 million) but will crash and burn its second week and WW will destroy it. If WW opens close to $100 million then it should beat the Mummy in week 2 (assuming the Mummy doesnt open better than expected or WW doesnt have a massive drop)

I have said it many times but if WW reviews well and opens like it is expected too it should be smooth sailing until Transformers. Cars 3 will take away audience from Captain Underpants more than WW and The Mummy just doesnt seem to have the power. All of this could change but Wonder Woman also has the benefit of name recognition and a bit of history (people have waited a long time for this) to help.

 

[dhandler01]

You know with the hype surrounding this film recently, WW can easily gross up to $85M+ on Friday, but what about Saturday and Sunday?

If the films reviews are poor it would heavily affect its Saturday and Sunday numbers and its overall opening weekend.

Happened to BvS last year and it could happened to WW soon.

Note: a portion of Sundays numbers for BvS could've been because of easter sunday that week

I think other factors will offset that (though reviews could kill its second week) but since it doesnt seem reviews will be bad I am not too worried about it.

 

[Marz69]

@Marz69

Boxoffice.com projected WW at 83M initially, then they adjusted it to 90 the second time on Thurs.

The wrap, THR and Deadline reported independent trackings are around 65M last week, may increase to 75M this week, and one tracker was showing 100+ instead of 65M.

Then people divided into 4 groups, the optimistically conservatives happy with 65 OW, the meltdown group that think it's not accurate, the growth group that think tracking grows week by week so it's normal, and the hater group that craps on WW.

After the critics twitter reactions came out, people are adjusting their estimates much higher now, more 100M+ guesses and "it might breakout you know" type comments.

I am sticking with my 135M, and 150M+ IF it gets an Avengers, TDK or JW phenomenon.

Thanks

Regarding your 4 groups, glad to see this place hasn't changed since I've been away

 

[Micromind]

I expect WW to do well in China, as Gal is famous there from her Fast & Furious movies and Wanda is associated with this movie, so it will be marketed well there.

Plus WW's preview seems to have worked in getting people interested, I think it will do well there.

 

[Skies]

I'm a little worried about China. Didn't an Indian film (Dangal) beat GOTG2 there recently? Not sure if that's due to superhero fatigue or what.

 

[PacificBoy]

I'm a little worried about China. Didn't an Indian film (Dangal) beat GOTG2 there recently? Not sure if that's due to superhero fatigue or what.

Nothing to be worried about. Guardians was well received; just that Dangal was even more so and its story and themes resonated more strongly with us. Depending on the competition WW would face at its release, I feel it could do better than Guardians' overall haul in China.

 

[brandeezy89]

Biggest threat to WW OS i think is Pirates but seeing that reviewers are still on a social media embargo even after the premiere, i don't think it'll be that big.

 

[Iceman]

Franchises that I think have run out of their appeal (for those who are not hard core fans)
Pirates, Mummy, Transformers, Cars all in June.

Yeah, I don't think there's much debate that those franchises aren't picking up all that many brand new customers these days, at least in English speaking markets.

 

[PacificBoy]

Biggest threat to WW OS i think is Pirates but seeing that reviewers are still on a social media embargo even after the premiere, i don't think it'll be that big.

For China, Pirates is poised to do gangbusters, but it should make most of its money before WW opens (and thus not affecting WW's run that much) as big movies typically are more frontloaded these days there.

 

[Jonwo]

I don't expect WW to do $80m on its opening day, that is Jurassic World/Avengers territories. I think anything over $50m on Friday alone would make WB very happy.

 

[Wildcard]

I don't expect WW to do $80m on its opening day, that is Jurassic World/Avengers territories. I think anything over $50m on Friday alone would make WB very happy.

Agreed. $50 million to the high 60s seems more doable. But, again, you never know. The box office is one extremely unpredictable beast, and if the positive word of mouth keeps up, who knows what the ceiling could be for WW.

 

[Greenlite]

I think we can finally enjoy the magic of a big DC film marketed by an amazing ad team, with good to great reviews. I started following CBM after TDK so I've never experienced anything like this for DC =P

 

[Jonwo]

I think we can finally enjoy the magic of a big DC film marketed by an amazing ad team, with good to great reviews. I started following CBM after TDK so I've never experienced anything like this for DC =P

The Warner Bros marketing team needs a raise!

 

[DieSmiling]

Completely agree with everyone who is saying there's no hype or anticipation around the Mummy. The whole Universal "Monsterverse" thing feels like something nobody really wants, it's just Universal looking at the IP they own and trying to create a cinematic universe out of it. I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't hit 100mm domestic.

Pirates feels stale and washed up in the States too. It'll make some money but won't be close to the previous entries domestically.

The positive Twitter reactions for WW are a really good sign. I think this will open near 100m (I'd guess 85 to 95m) and if it has a good multiplier (i.e. some other June flicks bomb and WOM is good) I think this has a shot at 300m.

 

[Dark Raven]

We already had a Mummy franchise with Rachel Weisz and... what's his name (I forget). That might actually have been 20 years ago when the first one aired.

And there have been dozens of Mummy films throughout the years. But never a big screen version of Wonder Woman. I think the Mummy must be relying on the power of Tom Cruise, but in itself it feels rather stale. WW feels like something fresh. I hope audiences think of it the same way.

 

[DieSmiling]

We already had a Mummy franchise with Rachel Weisz and... what's his name (I forget). That might actually have been 20 years ago when the first one aired.

And there have been dozens of Mummy films throughout the years. But never a big screen version of Wonder Woman. I think the Mummy must be relying on the power of Tom Cruise, but in itself it feels rather stale. WW feels like something fresh. I hope audiences think of it the same way.

I think it's been a long time since Tom Cruise really meant something at the box office. Most kids today only know him as a scientology kook.

And the name you were looking for was Brendan Fraser.

 

[Dark Raven]

I think it's been a long time since Tom Cruise really meant something at the box office. Most kids today only know him as a scientology kook.

And the name you were looking for was Brendan Fraser.

Well there's still Mission Impossible.

And Brendan Fraser has fallen into obscurity now and his name is forgotten. Would anyone know who he is today?

Hopefully audiences see the prospect of a female-led superhero movie, and also the first big screen version of a comic book icon and are interested. She is easily the biggest pop culture icon from comics not to have received a movie until now.