Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 1

[Greenlite]

It wouldn't be too surprising if they save the sequel announcement until Comic Con but I agree they'll announce a bit earlier. I imagine WB's Comic Con slate will be Justice League, Aquaman, Tomb Raider, It, Rampage and Ready Player One

and Emma Stone as Bat-girl, Kathryn Bigelow for GCS, Bayona for MOS2, and Gibson for SS2

 

[JPV]

The only caveat to them announcing is negotiating Gadot's contract. If she signed a 3-pic one, JL will end it (BvS, WW, JL); certainly she'll see a pay bump but that might take time even if it's a forgone conclusion.

 

[dhandler01]

I would bet they have the framework in place...they dont wait until the last second on this stuff.

 

[Greenlite]

I would bet they have the framework in place...they dont wait until the last second on this stuff.

WB spent millions on marketing, critics after-party and dressing up little girls as WW, the movie needs 800M to break even, the new framework is for Affleck to star in the sequel: Batman v WW: Future of Justice.

 

[Wonder89]

Guys are you crazy? 450-500m worldwide will be great for this movie, tracking and early pre-sale tickets looks an OW around 90-100m and will be great for this movie

 

[Micromind]

WB spent millions on marketing, critics after-party and dressing up little girls as WW, the movie needs 800M to break even, the new framework is for Affleck to star in the sequel: Batman v WW: Future of Justice.

That's right.

 

[The Endless]

I think 600 million should be seen as a huge success.

 

[Ardyns]

What is the production budget for this one? 130? 140?

 

[Micromind]

what is the production budget for this one? 130? 140?

150.

 

[Greenlite]

What is the production budget for this one? 130? 140?

paraphrasing: "on the lower end of a big superhero movie, more than 120M"

 

[Ardyns]

I'm guessing another 100-120 mil for marketing on top of that?

 

[Micromind]

paraphrasing: "on the lower end of a big superhero movie, more than 120M"

I consider Captain America :The First Avenger and Thor to be on lower end of superhero movies, those were made on a budget of (around) 150 mil.

 

[Greenlite]

I'm guessing another 100-120 mil for marketing on top of that?

I consider Captain America :The First Avenger and Thor to be on lower end of superhero movies, those were made on a budget of (around) 150 mil.

Yah, 120M marketing+150M sounds about right.

So about 550M to break even to put it simply?

I think we are looking at least Winter Soldier b.o. numbers, and WW side-products are gonna be hot among kids, women and parents for the rest of the year.

So that profit number's gonna look pretty good t:

 

[Wonder89]

Production cost is 120m

We need to looking to Captain America 1 around 375m Worldwide and Thor 1 around 449m Worldwide

 

[Greenlite]

Production cost is 120m

We need to looking to Captain America 1 around 375m Worldwide and Thor 1 around 449m Worldwide

Source? Mark Hughes?

Patty and Roven said its more than that

Marketing will be at least 100M as well by WB standard.

Thor 1 is like the minimum baseline, discounting inflation.

 

[Urich Leeds]

Is it possible this could get good reviews and even be critically acclaimed, but still not have a good box office return? I know the opposite sometimes happens.

When a film has as much competition as Wonder Woman.... yes. That said, it looks as though it will be far better reviewed than all of its competition. And that will certainly help it

 

[dhandler01]

When a film has as much competition as Wonder Woman.... yes. That said, it looks as though it will be far better reviewed than all of its competition. And that will certainly help it

Except the competition is crapping the bed. Alien opened weak, Pirates even frontloaded is going to open less than Wonder Woman and the Mummy is set to open super small. Transformers should be what knocks Wonder Woman out of #1 if the reviews are halfway decent. (and they look to be better than that)

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Except the competition is crapping the bed. Alien opened weak, Pirates even frontloaded is going to open less than Wonder Woman and the Mummy is set to open super small. Transformers should be what knocks Wonder Woman out of #1 if the reviews are halfway decent. (and they look to be better than that)

Pirates 5 is reportedly bombing in Australia, opening 30-40% lower than On Stranger Tides. I haven't seen any Thursday preview numbers for the US yet but that doesn't bode well.

 

[Shadow Moses]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...t-the-box-office-than-estimates/#34567be15ded

I'm going with an initial pure-gut guesstimate of $100 million domestic opening, a 2.8x multiplier, and a final tally somewhere around $700+ million, with a domestic-foreign split that's not quite as heavily skewed toward international markets due to the strength of the domestic sales.

 

[Iceman]

$700m would be decent.

 

[Wonder89]

700m is impossible for Wonder Woman, 500-550m will be great

 

[Iceman]

700m is impossible for Wonder Woman, 500-550m will be great

If 500m is great, then what would be good? What would be just ok, bad, terrible etc? t:

 

[Skies]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/pirates...tales-baywatch-box-office-weekend-1202102887/

Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales took to the sea last night with $5.5M at 7 PM in previews.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$700 million is perfectly possible for WW.

Disney finally put out Thursday numbers for Pirates: $5.5 million for the previews. That's barely above the $4.7 million OST got from midnights in 2011. Doesn't look like a breakout in the making here, either.

WB could not have asked for a better setup for WW.

 

[dhandler01]

700m is impossible for Wonder Woman, 500-550m will be great

It isnt impossible at all. What makes you think that?