Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 2

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[iEquinox]

The China Box Office account also says the hold is a good sign for the coming weekend: https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/872108093156581378

I'm crossing fingers that WW could surprise to the upside there with a $80m haul at the end of this week.

Would be pleasantly surprised if it makes it to $70M in China after sunday. $80M by sunday doesn't seem like it's possible to me.

 

[Marathon]

I would consider $70m from China a disappointment after the amount of promotion work they did over there. But we'll take what we can.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

An insider from boxofficetheory says about 11.7 m:

I think ERC is reporting too low of a number.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24123-wonder-woman-117m-monday-erc-pg-3/?page=5

 

[Marathon]

If Wondy's numbers get continuously revised upwards, then all the better of course!

The OW tracking for the Mummy was put as low as $35m today. So, domestically it's unlikely to be a competitor, but internationally it unfortunately will probably take number one spot.

 

[iEquinox]

I would consider $70m from China a disappointment after the amount of promotion work they did over there. But we'll take what we can.

Are you saying $70M in China after next sunday would be disappointing to you? Or are you misinterpreting my post and talking about the final number?
Because I think $70M after next weekend would be pretty good after a 38.8M opening weekend.

 

[Marathon]

Are you saying $70M in China after next sunday would be disappointing to you? Or are you misinterpreting my post and talking about the final number?
Because I think $70M after next weekend would be pretty good after a 38.8M opening weekend.

Yes, I was talking about the final number. Sorry for the confusion.

Speaking of which, what is your prediction for the final China gross?

 

[brandeezy89]

China isn't a disappointment when BvS made 90M

 

[dhandler01]

If Wondy's numbers get continuously revised upwards, then all the better of course!

The OW tracking for the Mummy was put as low as $35m today. So, domestically it's unlikely to be a competitor, but internationally it unfortunately will probably take number one spot.

Seriously...that low? Wasnt it tracking at $40 million 2 weeks ago?

Must be why they announced two more movies...to try and juice up people's interest ahead of the reviews.

 

[Marathon]

Seriously...that low? Wasnt it tracking at $40 million 2 weeks ago?

Must be why they announced two more movies...to try and juice up people's interest ahead of the reviews.

Yep: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/he...mmy-mortal-danger-losing-wonder-woman-1010543

 

[Marathon]

Yeah, maybe "disappointment" is a stretch, but I just would like a bit of buffer from China for the international numbers, because while the domestic performance is terrific, the international performance so far is "only" solid. Having said that, I understand word of mouth should be pretty great everywhere, so even if the international OWs aren't/weren't sky-high, the legs should compensate.

 

[iEquinox]

Yes, I was talking about the final number. Sorry for the confusion.

Speaking of which, what is your prediction for the final China gross?

Should get close to 80M in the end, but it's hard to get a read on what the weekday numbers mean exactly because many schools are out in China to prepare for exams. Anything over 77M in the end would be pretty good because that would give it a multiplier of 2x which is what most well received superhero movies get these days.

For comparison, GotG2 opened with 48.6M and ended with 99.3M, so that got a 2.04 multiplier. (BvS got a 1.72x multiplier last year)

 

[Marathon]

Should get close to 80M in the end, but it's hard to get a read on what the weekday numbers mean exactly because many schools are out in China to prepare for exams. Anything over 77M in the end would be pretty good because that would give it a multiplier of 2x which is what most well received superhero movies get these days.

For comparison, GotG2 opened with 48.6M and ended with 99.3M, so that got a 2.04 multiplier. (BvS got a 1.72x multiplier last year)

Thanks, that was very informative!

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

1 (1) Wonder Woman Warner Bros. $11,757,063 -60% 4,165 $2,823 $115,008,534 4

 

[SomeOldGuy]

If Wondy's numbers get continuously revised upwards, then all the better of course!

The OW tracking for the Mummy was put as low as $35m today. So, domestically it's unlikely to be a competitor, but internationally it unfortunately will probably take number one spot.

Yeah, Mummy just blew the OD record in Korea to bits.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/the-mummy-box-office-korea-1202455838/

 

[DieSmiling]

Yeah, Mummy just blew the OD record in Korea to bits.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/the-mummy-box-office-korea-1202455838/

Wow. Almost makes you wonder if The Mummy could be a Warcraft type movie where it bombs domestically but is huge in Asia.

 

[rayc1971]

we are looking at 50 mill 2nd weekend and retain the number 1 spot thats good only a 50% drop normally these movies have 60 to 70% drop but wonder woman will still draw the female crowd in so 50% sounds about right.the mummy has dropped from 40mill to about 35mill dont see this launching that dark universe franchise like they thought

 

[Tony Stark]

Bigger drop for Monday than I would have liked to see, but a solid number. Pretty much same number as Guardians v1, but for Guardians it was only a 54% drop, -60% for WW. I expect the discount Tuesday numbers to rebound better, but this is looking more like a -55%, which is good, no one should knock that. It's likely going to repeat at no. 1 unless Mummy drastically outperforms the tracking, and I don't think anyone expects that.

Again a 3x multi would be great, but let's just keep things in check, that is so difficult for a film to do in June, unless you have a massive opening like Jurrasic World, where the sheer momentum pretty much pulls it through. If this were August WW is a no brainer 3X film, but I think once it starts loosing the 3D/Imax revenue by the end of June it's going to be hard.

 

[metaphysician]

Re: Mummy- blerg. I was really hoping that would crater.

Though wait, if its out in South Korea, how come there aren't any reviews up yet?

 

[MrGamer2558]

Re: Mummy- blerg. I was really hoping that would crater.

Though wait, if its out in South Korea, how come there aren't any reviews up yet?

Grace Randolph said the embargo is lifting at noon EST tomorrow. It was rumored to be lifted on Thursday, but apparently they moved it up.

 

[Dark Raven]

Does WONDER WOMAN’s Record Box Office Opening Hide a Critical Disappointment?

https://www.newsarama.com/34768-does-wonder-womans-record-opening-hide-a-critical-factor.html

So the much-anticipated Patty Jenkins-directed/Gal Gadot-starring Wonder Woman began Monday morning celebrated for its $103m domestic opening box office weekend. The figure, of course, easily sets the record for a female-directed film.

And it is only the seventh non-sequel superhero film to open above $100m (and that's if we're not counting Marvel's The Avengers or Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice as non-sequels).

And, of course, it’s one of the best-reviewed superhero films of all time and the resounding critical and commercial hit Warner Bros. theoretically desperately needed, breathing new life and credibility into the future of the DC Extended Universe.

So then why don’t I feel better about the figures?

To be clear, my disappointment has nothing to do with Jenkins, who delivered a terrific film, the potential of which should never have been in doubt because of her gender, though legitimate questions existed in regards to her résumé.

She answered those résumé questions resoundingly, however, and should be genuinely proud of the glass she’s shattered.

That said, her new benchmark is likely less an issue of box office performance per se - I doubt many mainstream moviegoers choose films based on the gender of the director - and more about the historic lack of opportunity afforded women to direct big-budget tent-pole films.

On that same note, Warner Bros. marketed the film as well as can be expected. I can’t find criticism in either the substance or the volume of their efforts to make audiences aware of the film and its reception.

That’s why this morning, while the press mostly basks in the feel-good reports of the superlatives of the film’s opening performance, I lean towards a different view.

And so there is no confusion let me state upfront, I don’t think Wonder Woman let down audiences... I think audiences let down Wonder Woman.

It’d be very easy to just to be satisfied with the benchmarks set and hopefully the direction Wonder Woman pushes things in, and Warner Bros. understandably has to present that front this week, but with a deeper dive into some numbers I also can’t think of good reason why the film didn’t do better... except one reason, that is.

Let’s look at the opening of other superhero films, just for comparison’s sake…

Iron Man (2008): $99m May opening weekend (in 2008 money) – Remember Iron Man was a Paramount release and the first Marvel Cinematic Universe entry, meaning the Marvel Studios/MCU brand only had anticipated (not bankable) brand equity. Its star Robert Downey Jr. at the time was not the box office draw he was now and in fact this was something of a career comeback from oblivion for him and a risk because despite his recognized talent he was, at that stage of his career, box office anti-matter.

At the time an Iron Man film was considered a C-list risk and industry wisdom suggested Marvel has already farmed out its only A-list properties to 20th Century Fox and Sony.

Like Wonder Woman, Iron Man enjoyed critical accolades heading into its debut weekend and the film actually have much in common - both feature leads who get called to heroism when they abandon sheltered lives and are faced with the horrors of war.

Man of Steel (2013): $117m – Reviewed more lukewarmly than god awful (like Batman v Superman), Man of Steel was officially the launch of the DCEU, but then moviegoers really didn’t know that at the time. It entered the market as the fifth big-screen Superman film, following 2006’s sort-of-relaunch/not-really-a-reboot disappoint-ish Superman Returns, and a maybe start to a possible shared universe.

It also starred the virtually unknown Henry Cavill in the lead role.

Deadpool (2016): $132 - In February … with an R-rating … also starring box office-allergic Ryan Reynolds, featuring a relatively lesser profile but perhaps more contemporaneously popular character.

Much of has been made of Deadpool's multiple record-setting metrics, and like Wonder Woman and Iron Man was a critical darling. So how much credit here goes to Deadpool’s genre-busting irreverent voice and marketing campaign?

And here is the one that really stands out…

Suicide Squad (2016): $134m – Huh?

Critically drubbed (even more than Batman v Superman, if that’s to be believed), starring Will Smith and Margot Robbie, who opened Focus together a year before to $18m, featuring mostly D-level superheroes. I’ve heard lots of explanations for Suicide Squad’s performance, including the "Bohemian Rhapsody"-infused trailer; its more multi-cultural cast, interest in the screen debut of Robbie's Harley Quinn and Jared Leto’s Joker; and again the seemingly more irreverent tone it struck than Man of Steel and Batman v Superman. But at least in opening weekend terms, it was review proof, and/or the film would have soared past $134m even with middling reviews.

Each of the films opened to more receipts than Wonder Woman (Iron Man, again adjusted for inflation, opened to $111.7m domestically), some with serious box office disadvantages, including but not limited to rating, release month, and critical reception. And Wonder Woman featured … you know … Wonder Woman, arguably one of the four most iconic superheroes in the world along with Batman, Superman, and Spider-Man.

You can look in-between the margins for why those films performed better - like all of the reasons above, and perhaps because the character already favorably debuted in Batman v Superman and therefore the curiosity factor wasn’t as strong. Maybe being a period film hurt a little, or that Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad left a bad taste that finally caught up to a DCEU film.

And there are already signs Wonder Woman will have better legs than those films (pun entirely unintended) and will go on to have a strong box office life. But at the end of the day one has to wonder if the elephant in the room was indeed a factor - did men just not go to see Wonder Woman in comparable numbers than similar films?

Now I’m a journalist by trade and nature, so I’m compelled to concede the evidence is incomplete and circumstantial. There are neither hard numbers or a consensus to the any reasons why or why not. I'm winging it a little here.

But Wonder Woman’s opening weekend was 52% female, an unusual and enviable figure for an action/superhero film Warner Bros. is rightfully touting today.

On the flipside, however, it was 48% male. Suicide Squad by comparison opened to a 46% female/54% male audience, considered a strong, surprising female figure in its own right at the time and it made 30% more. So the question is, did female audiences simply overwhelm the reliably male demo for Wonder Woman, and if male audiences came in the same numbers as Suicide Squad, why the differential?

Or did Wonder Woman's male demo underwhelm a little bit?

Again, it is admittedly back of the envelope math to suggest male audiences simply weren’t as excited about the excellently-reviewed Wonder Woman, but it’s hard not to seriously consider the question as to why the film's ceiling wasn’t higher considering all its positives.

$103 million is no small feat and again the seventh best superhero, non-sequel opening of all time is a decent trophy for Wonder Woman's mantle, along with Jenkin's record. But I can’t help thinking the film deserved even better. And if any of my fellow males haven’t made the trip to the multiplex consciously or otherwise because the of the gender of the lead character, I hope you'll find your way there soon.

Not because it stars or was directed by a woman ... not to make a statement, but because it’s just a really good time at the movies and one of the best films of its kind.

 

[Marvin]

China isn't a disappointment when BvS made 90M

BvS had a huge amount of screens pulled soon after it's release for more home grown productions. What's more DC has had hard time getting a footing in china unlike other big franchises. Doesn't help that stuff like SS and TDK didn't get china releases.
The big stuff see's upwards of 200mill there some 300 to 400.

The decent performers hit like 90.

 

[jmc]

Does WONDER WOMAN’s Record Box Office Opening Hide a Critical Disappointment?

https://www.newsarama.com/34768-does-wonder-womans-record-opening-hide-a-critical-factor.html

This seems like a really strange complaint.

 

[dhandler01]

This seems like a really strange complaint.

Yeah that article is awful. Newsarama has gone downhill the last few years. They used to be my go to. (Vaneta is still awesome though)

You know how I know it is awful, because it ignores something obvious...that maybe men didnt fail to come out and see it in the numbers they assume (based solely on the numbers of other movies) but that women just outpaced them more than they give them credit for.

This nitpicky type stuff is what trolls use to try and prove things arent as good as they seem. The movie is a financial and critical success...who cares if Iron Man or SS beat it?