Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

[Greenlite]

I think 400m would be very impressive for Spidey. I think this is a pretty interesting test for RDJ/Ironman/MCU brand. I'm just not convinced people are excited for ANOTHER Spider-Man in a 10 year span.

I think the higher projections for JL are based on the idea that it will be much better received that BvS, which isn't a given obviously. I will say I'm confident it will open higher that BvS -- I'd be shocked if it doesn't do better than BvS domestically. But I think we all accept that JL has the biggest range -- its floor is probably in the 300m range, it's ceiling is enormous.

Ya depends on what narrative you look, toxic BvS and Snyder effect driving b.o. Down for JL, or turnaround post WW, or JL is already lighter and has Toby, Johns, Berg, Whedon on it so should get good critical reviews and beat BvS. It all depends on the reviews and that will affect the press narratives, then WOM...if its all decent would be interesting to see if OW has that WW gunn shy effect (non huge opening but incredible legs) some posters talked about, or WW's goodwill will push the OW right up.

But either way I think WW will be one of the stories of the year, even If JL passes it, she would be the one that's driving the positivity and key for the goodwill, and its cultural and social influence is remarkable, it's gonna have a place I history for sure

 

[Flemm]

I will root for this movie the whole way, but at a certain point the final total almost stops really mattering, imho.

If this movie even sniffs Guardians 2's total at the domestic box office, that is already pretty amazing. I mean... That is the sequel to a movie that had a 3.5 domestic multiplier, with the Marvel studios brand. At best we might have been expecting to talk about Wonder Woman 2 getting those numbers, not this movie.

As for Homecoming, I have a really hard time getting a read on it. Not really talking about predicting the box office, since I know nothing about that, but just in terms of what the movie will be like and how it will be received.

Based on the trailers and other promotional stuff, everything feels pretty familiar to me, tbh. Except that Iron man is there, obviously. But maybe the movie will have a unique spark that isn't obvious in the trailers, or maybe the Spider-Man/Iron Man combo will be enough on its own.

So I really have no idea on that one.

On the topic of Justice League, I am just hoping for the best at this point.

 

[Juan1193]

2nd: 56m (203.8m) CHECK 58.5m (206.3m)
3rd: 39.2m (262.5m) CHECK 41.27m (275.0m)
4th: 23.5m (303.5m)
5th: 16.2m (335.1m)
6th: 9.1m (352.7m)
7th: 7.8m (367m)
8th: 5.5m (377.5m)
9th: 4m (386.2m)
10th: 3.1m (392.1m)
11th: 2m (395.8m)
12th: 1.3m (398.1m)
13th: 0.7m (399.3m)
14th: 0.5m (400m)


Here's one road to 400 million DOM. Wonder Woman is obviously going to blow weekends 4-6 out the water like she did weekends 2 and 3 but weekend 7 onwards is where things start to get trickier. Those are phenomenal holds but if anyone is capable of reaching them it's Diana! Of course her insanely strong beginning legs can make up for her having weaker later legs so we'll just have to wait and see... This is going to be a close one!

 

[Greenlite]

2nd: 56m (203.8m) CHECK 58.5m (206.3m)
3rd: 39.2m (262.5m) CHECK 41.27m (275.0m)
4th: 23.5m (303.5m)
5th: 16.2m (335.1m)
6th: 9.1m (352.7m)
7th: 7.8m (367m)
8th: 5.5m (377.5m)
9th: 4m (386.2m)
10th: 3.1m (392.1m)
11th: 2m (395.8m)
12th: 1.3m (398.1m)
13th: 0.7m (399.3m)
14th: 0.5m (400m)


Here's one road to 400 million DOM. Wonder Woman is obviously going to blow weekends 4-6 out the water like she did weekends 2 and 3 but weekend 7 onwards is where things start to get trickier. Those are phenomenal holds but if anyone is capable of reaching them it's Diana! Of course her insanely strong beginning legs can make up for her having weaker later legs so we'll just have to wait and see... This is going to be a close one!

Wow I think your weekly estimate is on the conservative side and she is way ahead already!

 

[iEquinox]

2nd: 56m (203.8m) CHECK 58.5m (206.3m)
3rd: 39.2m (262.5m) CHECK 41.27m (275.0m)
4th: 23.5m (303.5m)
5th: 16.2m (335.1m)
6th: 9.1m (352.7m)
7th: 7.8m (367m)
8th: 5.5m (377.5m)
9th: 4m (386.2m)
10th: 3.1m (392.1m)
11th: 2m (395.8m)
12th: 1.3m (398.1m)
13th: 0.7m (399.3m)
14th: 0.5m (400m)


Here's one road to 400 million DOM. Wonder Woman is obviously going to blow weekends 4-6 out the water like she did weekends 2 and 3 but weekend 7 onwards is where things start to get trickier. Those are phenomenal holds but if anyone is capable of reaching them it's Diana! Of course her insanely strong beginning legs can make up for her having weaker later legs so we'll just have to wait and see... This is going to be a close one!

Those later projections are ridiculous. 14.3% weekend drop when Planet of the Apes opens? Weekdays only dropping 24.5% when Spider-Man Homecoming opens and previous weekdays got 4th of July boost?? Seems impossible.

I think it's safe to say that, if it does get to 400M, it won't do it by following those numbers.

 

[Juan1193]

Those later projections are ridiculous. 14.3% weekend drop when Planet of the Apes opens? Weekdays only dropping 24.5% when Spider-Man Homecoming opens and previous weekdays got 4th of July boost?? Seems impossible.

I think it's safe to say that, if it does get to 400M, it won't do it by following those numbers.

Wonder Woman didn't effect GoG2 when it opened so I don't expect Spidey to effect Wonder Woman either. The two can coexist especially since WW's audience skews female and older. With this movie expect the unexpected!

Anyway like I said this is just one path towards 400 million. She could still get there thanks strong weekdays and strong early legs. That 15-16 million lead is definitely going to offset the later drops due to competition. But we'll see what happens...

 

[iEquinox]

Wonder Woman didn't effect GoG2 when it opened so I don't expect Spidey to effect Wonder Woman either. The two can coexist especially since WW's audience skews female and older. With this movie expect the unexpected!

Anyway like I said this is just one path towards 400 million. She could still get there thanks strong weekdays and strong early legs. That 15-16 million lead is definitely going to offset the later drops due to competition. But we'll see what happens...

Wonder Woman definitely affected GotG2. Just like Spider-Man will affect Wonder Woman. Spider-Man is the movie that will affect it the most.

But in my post I never said it wouldn't reach $400M. My point was that some of the numbers in that scenario were completely unrealistic.
So while it still has a shot at $400M, if it gets there, it won't follow those numbers. I can guarantee that.

 

[Wonder89]

5,45 Tuesday for WW, very good numbers, awesome compared to BvS and SS

 

[iEquinox]

5,45 Tuesday for WW, very good numbers, awesome compared to BvS and SS

That's only a 13.3% increase from monday. Looks like TF5 previews affected the Tuesday number.

 

[Wonder89]

That's only a 13.3% increase from monday. Looks like TF5 previews affected the Tuesday number.

Tuesday after fathers day is always quite, for a 3rd tuesday is a lot better that MoS, SS and DS(AROUND 2M) and GOTG and GOTG2 (around3-3,5)

 

[Juan1193]

Wonder Woman definitely affected GotG2. Just like Spider-Man will affect Wonder Woman. Spider-Man is the movie that will affect it the most.

But in my post I never said it wouldn't reach $400M. My point was that some of the numbers in that scenario were completely unrealistic.
So while it still has a shot at $400M, if it gets there, it won't follow those numbers. I can guarantee that.

I guess you're right but I think strong weekday numbers will make up for that.

Anyways that's a strong Tuesday number!

 

[iEquinox]

Tuesday after fathers day is always quite, for a 3rd monday is a lot better that MoS, SS and DS(AROUND 2M) and GOTG and GOTG2 (around3-3,5)

A weekday number higher than DS and GotG2 doesn't mean much since those didn't have summer weekdays. Better than MoS and SS is expected as well because it already made more than both at the same point in its run. It would have been alarming if it dropped below any of those.

That said drops tomorrow should be lower. But I wonder why Tuesday after Father's Day would be smaller? What would cause that to happen?

 

[Wonder89]

A weekday number higher than DS and GotG2 doesn't mean much since those didn't have summer weekdays. Better than MoS and SS is expected as well because it already made more than both at the same point in its run. It would have been alarming if it dropped below any of those.

That said drops tomorrow should be lower. But I wonder why Tuesday after Father's Day would be smaller? What would cause that to happen?

WW will finish over BvS and SS domestic

 

[iEquinox]

WW will finish over BvS and SS domestic

Umm, I know? Not sure what the point of this post is.

 

[Flemm]

That's a 40% drop from the prior Tuesday, I think, or slightly less.

The Monday number was only a 23% drop from the prior Monday.

If everything goes according to my nefarious plan, the mid-week numbers will be relatively modest, due to Transformers, but then the weekend will be impressive.

Due also to Transformers

 

[iEquinox]

That's a 40% drop from the prior Tuesday, I think, or slightly less.

The Monday number was only a 23% drop from the prior Monday.

If everything goes according to my nefarious plan, the mid-week numbers will be relatively modest, due to Transformers, but then the weekend will be impressive.

Due also to Transformers

That Week on Week drop was a lot lower on Monday because of the NBA game last week. WoW drop on Tuesday is higher because last week Tuesday got an insane 41%+ increase(as a result of the lower Monday).

So it was always expected that it got a bigger WoW drop on Tuesday than Monday, even without any effect from TF5. Hard to tell how much TF affected it just from that number. Will be interesting to see if the Wednesday drop is lower than last week: -28.3%.

 

[gerrym51]

WW cannot ever have a bad number or the sky will fall-lol

However transformers did open and some 1/2 price theaters didn't 1/2 price

I dpn't know if that was just for Transformers though.

I predict it will hit 300 million friday

 

[Marathon]

I hope WW can bounce back, although this isn't the end of the world, obviously.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Tuesday is coming off of Father's day and WW also has to compete against TF5 previews. So, 5.45 million is a good number all things considered.

On the Tuesday-Tuesday drop, last week the NBA Finals Game 5 affected WW's Monday numbers and the Tuesday saw a healthy increase so a bigger weekly drop is to be expected.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Edit: Double post

 

[Wildcard]

I hope WW can bounce back, although this isn't the end of the world, obviously.

Bounce back from what?

 

[gerrym51]

i think the movie can only be judged based on how the othe holdovers did

 

[Wanda Detroit]

Bounce back from what?

I feel like some people are living in an alternate universe. I just read a Forbes article on this and Scott is excited by how this movie is performing. I come here and you'd think it was flopping hard or getting stunted. The movie has been out, what 4 weeks? It's doing better than SS in dailies but the numbers still get spun into a negative. I don't get it.

 

[kendalag]

I feel like some people are living in an alternate universe. I just read a Forbes article on this and Scott is excited by how this movie is performing. I come here and you'd think it was flopping hard or getting stunted. The movie has been out, what 4 weeks? It's doing better than SS in dailies but the numbers still get spun into a negative. I don't get it.

I think it's more that some of the people in here are getting too excited and drawn in to the numbers, whereas Scott is just looking at this from a general perspective. It makes for more sky is falling feelings from fans. A 13% increase from Monday & 37% drop from last Tuesday IS disappointing if you've been on cloud 9 the last few weeks, but as people have noted, when you delve into the numbers you can see why that 13% increase makes sense ... and why a 37% drop isn't the end of the world in comparison to the extra inflated Tuesday last week. Wonder Woman is doing great, much better than other comic book movies in similar situations.

It's still going to pass Man of Steel on Thursday, and be at 315-320 after Sunday which is a magnificent spot, setting it up to finish at 375-385 depending on drops in coming weeks.

Great run, will likely come close to passing Suicide Squad worldwide.

 

[Osiris-Rex]

I think it's more that some of the people in here are getting too excited and drawn in to the numbers, whereas Scott is just looking at this from a general perspective. It makes for more sky is falling feelings from fans.

That and the bogus story about Henry Cavill being paid 46 times as much for MoS as Gal Gadot was paid for Wonder Woman. It's almost like they are trying to turn Wonder Woman into a damsel in distress.

It's still going to pass Man of Steel on Thursday, and be at 315-320 after Sunday which is a magnificent spot, setting it up to finish at 375-385 depending on drops in coming weeks.

Great run, will likely come close to passing Suicide Squad worldwide.

And if she can pass SS domestic, she only needs about $5 million more to pass MoS domestic.