Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

[Iceman]

I feel like some people are living in an alternate universe. I just read a Forbes article on this and Scott is excited by how this movie is performing. I come here and you'd think it was flopping hard or getting stunted. The movie has been out, what 4 weeks? It's doing better than SS in dailies but the numbers still get spun into a negative. I don't get it.

There can be positive and negative mini-events in the run of a very successful film or one that fails completely. A film that has a great opening weekend and a great 2nd weekend might have a disappointing 3rd weekend for eg. Just because something is overall positive doesn't mean the mini-events within that run can't be analysed for further clues to the remaining performance. Even TFA saw a very steep dropoff a couple of weeks after its absolutely world-beating start while Avatar saw a stunted opening weekend. None of that means that anyone has necessarily lost sight of the big picture - in this case that WW is a roaring success regardless.

 

[iEquinox]

I feel like some people are living in an alternate universe. I just read a Forbes article on this and Scott is excited by how this movie is performing. I come here and you'd think it was flopping hard or getting stunted. The movie has been out, what 4 weeks? It's doing better than SS in dailies but the numbers still get spun into a negative. I don't get it.

Who are those people who make it look like it's flopping? Can you qoute some of those posts? I think something is wrong with my browser because for some reason I can't see them. Weird.

 

[FunkMiller]

This film cannot be seen as anything other than a huge success financially and critically. Examining the minutiae of every day's box office has largely become irrelevant.

 

[iEquinox]

This film cannot be seen as anything other than a huge success financially and critically. Examining the minutiae of every day's box office has largely become irrelevant.

It's true that this is already a huge success. Even if it stopped making money completely, it has already exceeded pretty much all expectations.

But this is the box office thread. Examining the box office is what it's for.
No one is forcing people who aren't interested in the box office to keep visiting this thread.

 

[Wanda Detroit]

There is examining and then there is acting like some of the numbers are signs of trouble when actual real analysts aren't even saying that.

 

[Iceman]

This film cannot be seen as anything other than a huge success financially and critically. Examining the minutiae of every day's box office has largely become irrelevant.

Yes I would have thought that those weren't interested in the minutae of the daily box office at this stage would have moved on to things that do interest them. This is something that many of us have followed with interest for many years. It has been the same in every film's box office thread at this stage.

 

[Iceman]

There is examining and then there is acting like some of the numbers are signs of trouble when actual real analysts aren't even saying that.

Yes and it is the first part that is happening and the second part that isn't.

 

[iEquinox]

There is examining and then there is acting like some of the numbers are signs of trouble when actual real analysts aren't even saying that.

Not sure if you're referring to me or not? If so can you explain where I was "acting like some of the numbers are signs of trouble"?

 

[Wanda Detroit]

Not sure if you're referring to me or not? If so can you explain where I was "acting like some of the numbers are signs of trouble"?

If you think it is about you then believe it. Hit dogs, holler all that. I don't have to go through posts to provide evidence for you. I said what I said.

Anyway WW is on it's way to $600 million, yay.

 

[iEquinox]

If you think it is about you then believe it. Hit dogs, holler all that. I don't have to go through posts to provide evidence for you. I said what I said.

Anyway WW is on it's way to $600 million, yay.

Ok so it wasn't about me then. I was just confused because I couldn't find any posts stating those things.

So you were just misinterpreting people. Glad we cleared that up.

 

[Wanda Detroit]

Ok so it wasn't about me then. I was just confused because I couldn't find any posts stating those things.

So you were just misinterpreting people. Glad we cleared that up.

Yeah okay.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

What is wrong you folks?? Those who actually want to analyze the dailies and try to understand how the BO of WW is shaping up to be, then let them be. Let them do it in peace. No need to attack them for it.

iEquinox, Wanda wasn't referring to you at all. She didn't call you out for anything or even insinuated that you are spreading negativity. So I don't get why you got worked up like that. It's cool.

 

[StormC]

I personally don't find the dailies super interesting but it's good to have that data regardless. The next two weekends will be critical since WW will lose audiences and screens once Spidey swings into theaters.

 

[iEquinox]

iEquinox, Wanda wasn't referring to you at all. She didn't call you out for anything or even insinuated that you are spreading negativity. So I don't get why you got worked up like that. It's cool.

I didn't get "worked up" about it, I was just trying to clear up what this was about.
As I said, I was just confused because I couldn't really find any posts that actually were spreading negativity.

All I was doing was trying to get some clarity. I still don't know who Wanda was actually talking about :P

 

[Marathon]

WW is over $86m (by estimates) in China as of now. Could it get to $90m?

 

[Flemm]

I personally don't find the dailies super interesting but it's good to have that data regardless. The next two weekends will be critical since WW will lose audiences and screens once Spidey swings into theaters.

Yep, here's hoping for two more really strong weekends

 

[Blitzkrieg]

WW is over $86m (by estimates) in China as of now. Could it get to $90m?

Last I read, the experts from the Chinese Box Office were saying that WW will top out at 87 million.

 

[Juan1193]

Here is the weekend projections for the weekend from BO. com! That would be an incredible number for WW if it holds up! 3 million shy of SS lol

 

[iEquinox]

WW is over $86m (by estimates) in China as of now. Could it get to $90m?

Will likely fall just short of $90M. GotG2 made another 12M yuan($1.76M) after this wednesday, if Wonder Woman can do the same it would end with $88.3M.

Wonder Woman has similar competition to GotG2; GotG2 faced PotC5 while Wonder Woman will face TF5 on the same day of release. Both are huge in China so GotG2 should be a good comparison. (Wonder Woman grossed 6.55M yuan, while GotG2 grossed 6.01M yuan on this day. Wonder Woman has stronger weekdays thanks to summer, while GotG2 had stronger weekends, they balance eachother out)

All things considered $88.3M from China is great, that's a 2.34x multiplier, pretty good for a superhero movie in China nowadays. (For example GotG2 got a 2.04x multiplier)

 

[kendalag]

Here is the weekend projections for the weekend from BO. com! That would be an incredible number for WW if it holds up! 3 million shy of SS lol

Don't expect it to hold quite that good, feel 26 is more likely, but we've been proven wrong each week.

Oh and with opening day #s starting to come in, Transformers isn't going to do 46 this weekend, that franchise is DONE everywhere but China as it's opening day of 15 million is going to lead to under 65 million 5 day and probably 35-40 million weekend. Revenge of the Fallen made 62 million opening day in 2009.

Everything people thought might stand in the way of Wonder Woman breaking out this summer (Pirates, Baywatch, Mummy, Cars, Transformers) has either bombed or fallen well below expectations. Perfect storm for Wonder Woman (along with the movie being good) has led to this point.

 

[Richard Grayson]

Yup I was scared of all these blockbuster movies hurting Wonder Woman but Wonder Woman ended up hurting these other blockbusters

 

[iEquinox]

Spoiler

Here is the weekend projections for the weekend from BO. com! That would be an incredible number for WW if it holds up! 3 million shy of SS lol

Only 30% drop the weekend after Father's Day would be pretty insane. I expect it to end up below that, but so far every weekend hold has exceeded expectations so who knows. Guess they got tired of underestimating Wonder Woman after their last two forecasts for WW were both over $6M too low :P

 

[iEquinox]

Yup I was scared of all these blockbuster movies hurting Wonder Woman but Wonder Woman ended up hurting these other blockbusters

Wonder Woman vs Competition right now:

 

[Osiris-Rex]

What I find interesting is with all the talk of Wonder Woman getting banned in Lebanon and the seeming lack of enthusiasm in other Middle Eastern countries (except Israel, of course) is that so far in the United Arab Emirates
Wonder Woman has made $2.6 million so far. That's by far more than Wonder Woman has made in countries like Hungary, New Zealand, Bolivia, or Portugal, which have roughly the same population.

 

[mclay18]

The fact that Transformers 5 hasn't bothered to do anything new (or get rid of Michael Bay earlier), shows franchise fatigue. Consumers are getting pickier and demand decent movies for a change. Movies that fall short, like T5, POTC5 and Alien Covenant get the short end of the stick.

When you have a good movie for a property that people want to see, they're going to see it instead of a cookie-cutter mess like Transformers.