Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 4

Box Office: 'Wonder Woman' Will Be Just The Third-Biggest Female-Led Hit Of 2017

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...-biggest-female-led-hit-of-2017/#7bf950d92de0

 

The drop should be softer this coming weekend, I think and hope. On the surface, Apes and WW shouldn't have much audience overlap...

 

WW is a bit different to some of the other ones mentioned in that article as she is the titular character and the film is all about her. Not really the case for Jurassic World and Titanic which are more about a bigger external event (where the lead is also shared). Even with SW and THG which have a definitive female lead they are sharing the limelight with the overall story which is bigger than the main character.

 

So that's like a 58% drop from Sunday, which is more or less what one might expect.

Should be interesting to see what happens the rest of this week and this weekend. I'm sure it was affected by Spidey, but it didn't seem to be affected too much more than it was affected by other things.

Guardians 2 actually lost about 1K theaters in its 7th week, because of a bunch of new wide releases, I guess (there were 4 new wide releases). I don't think WW will lose as many, as there is only Apes and a horror movie.

 

Exactly.

Hunger Games movie franchise was based on Hunger Games books, which already had a fan following.

Jurassic World is a continuation of already mega popular Jurassic Park franchise and Jurassic World's main stars are Dinos, not human (male or female) protagonists, though Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard did contribute to movie's success but they were not the main reason why people saw those movies.

Star Wars is already established franchise, the SW spinoffs and sequels need only 'STAR WARS' label to bring in audience.

Titanic (and Avatar) were popular due to director James Cameron and the special effects he used which were new at that time.

In case of Wonder Woman, it was the first movie for a 75 year old character, and the fact that earlier DC comic book movies based on female superheros were not very successful, (Supergirl and Catwoman) considering the fact that Gal Gadot was not a well known actress and the movie itself has actors that are not that well known overseas ( except Chris Pine.) the movie had to overcome many challenges that were not there for other movies that Mendelson has listed.

WW was different kind of movie compared to Hunger Games, Star Wars The Force Awakens, Jurassic World (all based on established movie franchises or popular books.)

 

The 1.19m Monday is pretty solid in spite of the 72%drop from the week before. Compared to 2 weeks before, it's only about a 60% drop, pretty good for a 2 week span.

 

I predict $7 million for this weekend.

 

As a 6th Monday number, it's roughly in line with the other movies that it has been running alongside for a while now.

The highest number I can find is the Avengers at 1.39M for the equivalent Monday.

The WW number is very slightly higher than TDK and the first Spider-Man, but basically the same.

 

Nice.

https://twitter.com/deadpoolmovie/status/884578349871276032

 

The problem is WW loses a lot of theaters (>>50%) this Friday - and more next week so... unless all the new films flop...

Still, I wouldn't bet against WW.

 

400m off a 103m opening

Speachless...

 

So the question after the weekend is...

Could Wonder Woman end up making more money that Spider-man Homecoming?

It's a possibility after Spidey's slightly soft opening weekend. If he drops by 55% or more this weekend...

No-one would have predicted that WW could potentially outgross Spidey at the top of the year, eh?

 

The chances of Spider-Man beating Wonder Woman domestically are very low. It would need a 3.4x multiplier, and that's extremely rare for a superhero movie. Especially when it's a well known character, which have more of a rush factor in the opening weekend. Anything is still possible this early in its run, but if Spidey doesn't have really great legs Wonder Woman will stay ahead domestically.

Worldwide though Spider-Man looks like the clear winner because of his established popularity, and his strong OS opening.

 

I'm thinking maybe the much higher OS take for Spidey could be off-set by the lower domestic take, and they could both end up at around 800 million. What it'll come down to I think is the audience appetite for yet another Spider-man reboot.

 

I'm reposting from the SM:H BO thread:

 

Yeah I think 900 million for Spidey is locked . The Iron man effect is working very well. WB should have put Batman in this flm

 

Yes

And WW had to work against the negative coverage like that WB ex employee letter, DC is doomed narrative, armpit and UN stuff.

 

I don't see WW losing to Spidey DOM really, Mendelson pretty much convinced himself (and myself) that WW will be the biggest summer film this year.

Peter only opened 14 M higher than Diana, and with heavy under 25 male turn out and history of IM legs I don't see this getting close to 400M or going passed a multiplier of 3.3+

Globally Spidey should take it easily with his existing fan base

 

WW will lose a lot of theaters the week of Dunkirk and Valerian.

It will still maintain most theaters this week

 

Tue prediction... $1.3m

 

More than $1.3M, probably about $1.5M on Tuesday

 

You son of a *****... Scott from forbes just said 1.6m tue. Damn you're good haha

 

That's the highest Tuesday increase for Wonder Woman since the Tuesday after the NBA game, when Monday was lowered.

Gitesh say the same as Forbes. They're not very precise, but if that $371.3 is rounded up from $371.25 that would give it at least $1.59M on Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/885136730516574209