Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 4

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]531493[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]531001[/split]

 

[Dark Raven]

Box Office: 'Wonder Woman' Will Be Just The Third-Biggest Female-Led Hit Of 2017

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...-biggest-female-led-hit-of-2017/#7bf950d92de0

Another day, another Wonder Woman update. I figured I would be winding down relatively soon, but there is clearly a fan base for these daily updates, so onward and upward.

Wonder Woman earned another $1.19 million on its sixth Monday (-72% from last Monday, as that was a holiday), bringing its 39-day domestic total to $369.683m. Barring a fluke, today is the day that Wonder Woman passes The Passion of the Christ's domestic total ($370.3m in 2004 and sans 3D) today. It may soon dip below $1m for the day, but that's a conversation for another update.

Assuming it doesn't drop dead this week, it should end its seventh weekend just over/under the $381 million domestic total of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II and past the likes of Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith ($380m in 2005), Spider-Man 2 ($373m in 2004) and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King ($377m in 2003). If it passes the $400 million mark, it will be bigger than all but the first and last Harry Potter movies even when adjusted for inflation. It has already soared past all five Twilight films (albeit all of which were in 2D) in real grosses and when adjusted for inflation. And the picture has already out-grossed the last two Hunger Games movies (all four of which played in 2D in North America).

Among all female-led movies (or female/male two-handers like Jurassic World), Wonder Woman is only behind the last two Star Wars movies, Titanic, Jurassic World, Beauty and the Beast, Finding Dory, the first two Hunger Games movies and Frozen. If it makes it to $410 million (possible but not remotely guaranteed), it'll be past the first Hunger Games and Frozen, although it's all-but-certain that it will be merely the third-biggest female-led movie of 2017 behind Beauty and the Beast and Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

Think about that for a minute. For all the talk about female-led action movies and fantasies being box office poison, for all the conventional wisdom about boys not seeing girl movies, Wonder Woman is going to be one of the biggest female-led movies of all time in North America. And it will still only be the third-biggest of this year in North America and worldwide. Heck, when Wonder Woman passes Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 at the domestic box office in a week or two, that means that all three likely 2017 domestic box office champions will be explicitly female-led fantasies.

Even if Justice League sneaks in, it will be very much thanks to Gal Gadot's crowd-pleasing Wonder Woman movie. And that's assuming it doesn't count anyway by being Wonder Woman and the Challenge of the Super Friends or a Batman and Wonder Woman: The Brave and the Bold two-hander. Thor: Ragnarok could play spoiler, but for what it's worth that franchise has always been very female-gaze friendly. No, women don't see Thor movies just to ogle Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston and Idris Elba anymore than I only see Thor movies to ogle Natalie Portman and Kat Dennings (in nerd glasses!) and (eventually) goth-queen Cate Blanchett, but it helps.

But I digress. And going forward, Wonder Woman is both not a fluke and also not the bar for success for the next big female-led action fantasy. That's the double-edged sword regarding female-led studio pictures. On the one hand, we don't want the media and the studios writing off Bad Moms as a special circumstance. But on the other hand, we don't want Bad Moms to be held up as the expected result every time out so that Girls Trip is deemed a whiff if it "only" makes $55 million. Sure, Wonder Woman's success is good news for Captain Marvel, but let's not all go crazy if said Brie Larson sci-fi adventure does MCU's standard over/under $85m opening and over/under $240m domestic take in two years.

 

[Marathon]

The drop should be softer this coming weekend, I think and hope. On the surface, Apes and WW shouldn't have much audience overlap...

 

[Iceman]

WW is a bit different to some of the other ones mentioned in that article as she is the titular character and the film is all about her. Not really the case for Jurassic World and Titanic which are more about a bigger external event (where the lead is also shared). Even with SW and THG which have a definitive female lead they are sharing the limelight with the overall story which is bigger than the main character.

 

[Flemm]

So that's like a 58% drop from Sunday, which is more or less what one might expect.

Should be interesting to see what happens the rest of this week and this weekend. I'm sure it was affected by Spidey, but it didn't seem to be affected too much more than it was affected by other things.

Guardians 2 actually lost about 1K theaters in its 7th week, because of a bunch of new wide releases, I guess (there were 4 new wide releases). I don't think WW will lose as many, as there is only Apes and a horror movie.

 

[Micromind]

WW is a bit different to some of the other ones mentioned in that article as she is the titular character and the film is all about her. Not really the case for Jurassic World and Titanic which are more about a bigger external event (where the lead is also shared). Even with SW and THG which have a definitive female lead they are sharing the limelight with the overall story which is bigger than the main character.

Exactly.

Hunger Games movie franchise was based on Hunger Games books, which already had a fan following.

Jurassic World is a continuation of already mega popular Jurassic Park franchise and Jurassic World's main stars are Dinos, not human (male or female) protagonists, though Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard did contribute to movie's success but they were not the main reason why people saw those movies.

Star Wars is already established franchise, the SW spinoffs and sequels need only 'STAR WARS' label to bring in audience.

Titanic (and Avatar) were popular due to director James Cameron and the special effects he used which were new at that time.

In case of Wonder Woman, it was the first movie for a 75 year old character, and the fact that earlier DC comic book movies based on female superheros were not very successful, (Supergirl and Catwoman) considering the fact that Gal Gadot was not a well known actress and the movie itself has actors that are not that well known overseas ( except Chris Pine.) the movie had to overcome many challenges that were not there for other movies that Mendelson has listed.

WW was different kind of movie compared to Hunger Games, Star Wars The Force Awakens, Jurassic World (all based on established movie franchises or popular books.)

 

[hawkflame]

The 1.19m Monday is pretty solid in spite of the 72%drop from the week before. Compared to 2 weeks before, it's only about a 60% drop, pretty good for a 2 week span.

 

[AvengerPA]

I predict $7 million for this weekend.

 

[Flemm]

The 1.19m Monday is pretty solid in spite of the 72%drop from the week before. Compared to 2 weeks before, it's only about a 60% drop, pretty good for a 2 week span.

As a 6th Monday number, it's roughly in line with the other movies that it has been running alongside for a while now.

The highest number I can find is the Avengers at 1.39M for the equivalent Monday.

The WW number is very slightly higher than TDK and the first Spider-Man, but basically the same.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Nice.

https://***********/deadpoolmovie/status/884578349871276032

 

[wonder213]

The drop should be softer this coming weekend, I think and hope. On the surface, Apes and WW shouldn't have much audience overlap...

The problem is WW loses a lot of theaters (>>50%) this Friday - and more next week so... unless all the new films flop...

Still, I wouldn't bet against WW.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

400m off a 103m opening

Speachless...

 

[FunkMiller]

So the question after the weekend is...

Could Wonder Woman end up making more money that Spider-man Homecoming?

It's a possibility after Spidey's slightly soft opening weekend. If he drops by 55% or more this weekend...

No-one would have predicted that WW could potentially outgross Spidey at the top of the year, eh?

 

[iEquinox]

So the question after the weekend is...

Could Wonder Woman end up making more money that Spider-man Homecoming?

It's a possibility after Spidey's slightly soft opening weekend. If he drops by 55% or more this weekend...

No-one would have predicted that WW could potentially outgross Spidey at the top of the year, eh?

The chances of Spider-Man beating Wonder Woman domestically are very low. It would need a 3.4x multiplier, and that's extremely rare for a superhero movie. Especially when it's a well known character, which have more of a rush factor in the opening weekend. Anything is still possible this early in its run, but if Spidey doesn't have really great legs Wonder Woman will stay ahead domestically.

Worldwide though Spider-Man looks like the clear winner because of his established popularity, and his strong OS opening.

 

[FunkMiller]

The chances of Spider-Man beating Wonder Woman domestically are very low. It would need a 3.4x multiplier, and that's extremely rare for a superhero movie. Especially when it's a well known character, which have more of a rush factor in the opening weekend. Anything is still possible this early in its run, but if Spidey doesn't have really great legs Wonder Woman will stay ahead domestically.

Worldwide though Spider-Man looks like the clear winner because of his established popularity, and his strong OS opening.

I'm thinking maybe the much higher OS take for Spidey could be off-set by the lower domestic take, and they could both end up at around 800 million. What it'll come down to I think is the audience appetite for yet another Spider-man reboot.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I'm thinking maybe the much higher OS take for Spidey could be off-set by the lower domestic take, and they could both end up at around 800 million. What it'll come down to I think is the audience appetite for yet another Spider-man reboot.

I'm reposting from the SM:H BO thread:

Spidey will be biggest summer CBM in OS countries and it'll also beat both Vol 2 and Wonder Woman in terms of WW numbers.

Spidey opened to 140 million in 56 OS markets. It'll do (2.8-2.85)xOW to achieve 400 million from these markets. Add in France, Germany, Spain, Japan and China on top of that. TASM2 did 75 million in those countries save for China. China will be unpredictable but you can guesstimate at least 90 million for nao. (400+90+90) = 580 million seems a good bet.

Add 320 million DOM and WW total becomes 900 million.

 

[Zant]

I'm reposting from the SM:H BO thread:

Yeah I think 900 million for Spidey is locked . The Iron man effect is working very well. WB should have put Batman in this flm

 

[Greenlite]

Exactly.

Hunger Games movie franchise was based on Hunger Games books, which already had a fan following.

Jurassic World is a continuation of already mega popular Jurassic Park franchise and Jurassic World's main stars are Dinos, not human (male or female) protagonists, though Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard did contribute to movie's success but they were not the main reason why people saw those movies.

Star Wars is already established franchise, the SW spinoffs and sequels need only 'STAR WARS' label to bring in audience.

Titanic (and Avatar) were popular due to director James Cameron and the special effects he used which were new at that time.

In case of Wonder Woman, it was the first movie for a 75 year old character, and the fact that earlier DC comic book movies based on female superheros were not very successful, (Supergirl and Catwoman) considering the fact that Gal Gadot was not a well known actress and the movie itself has actors that are not that well known overseas ( except Chris Pine.) the movie had to overcome many challenges that were not there for other movies that Mendelson has listed.

WW was different kind of movie compared to Hunger Games, Star Wars The Force Awakens, Jurassic World (all based on established movie franchises or popular books.)

Yes

And WW had to work against the negative coverage like that WB ex employee letter, DC is doomed narrative, armpit and UN stuff.

 

[Greenlite]

I don't see WW losing to Spidey DOM really, Mendelson pretty much convinced himself (and myself) that WW will be the biggest summer film this year.

Peter only opened 14 M higher than Diana, and with heavy under 25 male turn out and history of IM legs I don't see this getting close to 400M or going passed a multiplier of 3.3+

Globally Spidey should take it easily with his existing fan base

 

[gerrym51]

The problem is WW loses a lot of theaters (>>50%) this Friday - and more next week so... unless all the new films flop...

Still, I wouldn't bet against WW.

WW will lose a lot of theaters the week of Dunkirk and Valerian.

It will still maintain most theaters this week

 

[scotyb91]

Tue prediction... $1.3m

 

[iEquinox]

More than $1.3M, probably about $1.5M on Tuesday

 

[scotyb91]

More than $1.3M, probably about $1.5M on Tuesday

You son of a *****... Scott from forbes just said 1.6m tue. Damn you're good haha

 

[iEquinox]

That's the highest Tuesday increase for Wonder Woman since the Tuesday after the NBA game, when Monday was lowered.

Gitesh say the same as Forbes. They're not very precise, but if that $371.3 is rounded up from $371.25 that would give it at least $1.59M on Tuesday.

Last night #WonderWoman rose past PassionOfTheChrist to reach #33 all-time domestic w/ $371.3M. May hit $380M by SUN. $400M within reach.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/885136730516574209