Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 4

[gerrym51]

wonder woman will take a hit on theaters next week

 

[Flemm]

Movies can take a hit in theaters at this stage without the weekly drops increasing. I guess that's just the remaining audience consolidating into the smaller theater count.

Sometimes the money per theater goes up.

Guardians 2 dropped over a thousand theaters in its 7th weekend, yet actually had its smallest weekend drop of 20% ($$$ per theater increased).

So it looks like WW will be in good shape. Even though it will lose a chunk of theaters, it should retain a decent amount moving into august, at which point I think it will have good late legs, with fewer big new releases happening at that point.

 

[scotyb91]

Movies can take a hit in theaters at this stage without the weekly drops increasing. I guess that's just the remaining audience consolidating into the smaller theater count.

Sometimes the money per theater goes up.

Guardians 2 dropped over a thousand theaters in its 7th weekend, yet actually had its smallest weekend drop of 20% ($$$ per theater increased).

So it looks like WW will be in good shape. Even though it will lose a chunk of theaters, it should retain a decent amount moving into august, at which point I think it will have good late legs, with fewer big new releases happening at that point.

I hope so

 

[Marvin]

The WB executive said it could/should play all through Aug. Definitely curious to see where this ends up.

 

[Osiris-Rex]

The WB executive said it could/should play all through Aug. Definitely curious to see where this ends up.

That would only be around 90 days though. Suicide Squad played for 98 days. And at day 41 SS only made $358 thousand as compared to $1.26 million for WW at day 41.
SS was still playing when it was only making $20 thousand a day. Depending on the drop off WW, WB should let WW be playing in September or beyond. The only reason
I can see for WB pulling Wonder Woman is that WB probably doesn't want WW competing with Justice League in November. So maybe even into October.

 

[kendalag]

Huh, I wonder why TDKR did so much better than all the others?

TDK increased interest in the franchise. I'm guessing TDKR had a much bigger opening weekend in Japan than would have if TDK wasn't as great as it was.

Wonder Woman should do 12-15 in Japan. Any more will be gravy as it will probably be over 400 million in US & 400 million overseas.

 

[Greenlite]

Huh, I wonder why TDKR did so much better than all the others?

Hi, Heath Ledger raised awareness via TDK and an Oscar win, Oscar controversy for not nominating Nolan and later expanding the nominee list gave TDK/Nolan more exposure, blu-ray/TV audiences catching on, Nolan brand cemented with Dicaprio led Inception, China market opening up for Rises, finale of a popular series, and unfortunately the tragedy of the movie's opening day drove down domestic numbers but made Rises headlines around the world.

Plus been a good movie helps as well.

 

[Greenlite]

By the end of August WW is only in theaters for about 13 weeks, if WB feels cracking 400M is enough then they might pull the plug, but if they feel Diana can crack Spiderman's 403M or even Cap 3 and IM3 then they might keep it going, I think Cap 3 stayed in theaters for 20 weeks, and they can pull her out before the blu-ray release in late October which is another way to promote JL in November.

 

[iEquinox]

I thought this had been cleared up in this thread already. How long it stays in theaters is up to the theater owners, not WB. Theaters will decide to keep playing it as long as it's making them money, and WB won't try to stop them. Why would they not let their movie play? They make money by doing nothing, why would they suddenly say: "Stop playing our movie right now! No, really, we don't want any more money, please stop giving us your money!".

Also, "competing" with Justice League is a very weird way to put it. A movie making a few 100k in a month is hardly going to "compete" with a movie making hundreds of millions lol. It really wouldn't have any affect on Justice League.

That would be like someone announcing that their small independent movie will be released 10 theaters on December 15th and Disney then trying to stop that movie from releasing because Star Wars comes out on that date and they're "scared of the competition"

 

[Iceman]

I thought this had been cleared up in this thread already. How long it stays in theaters is up to the theater owners, not WB. Theaters will decide to keep playing it as long as it's making them money, and WB won't try to stop them. Why would they not let their movie play? They make money by doing nothing, why would they suddenly say: "Stop playing our movie right now! No, really, we don't want any more money, please stop giving us your money!".

Also, "competing" with Justice League is a very weird way to put it. A movie making a few 100k in a month is hardly going to "compete" with a movie making hundreds of millions lol. It really wouldn't have any affect on Justice League.

That would be like someone announcing that their small independent movie will be released 10 theaters on December 15th and Disney then deciding to move Star Wars away from that date because they're "scared of the competition"

Agreed on all that, haha. Competition is a huge deal in the initial blowout period but after that it's not that important.

 

[Marvin]

By the end of August WW is only in theaters for about 13 weeks, if WB feels cracking 400M is enough then they might pull the plug, but if they feel Diana can crack Spiderman's 403M or even Cap 3 and IM3 then they might keep it going, I think Cap 3 stayed in theaters for 20 weeks, and they can pull her out before the blu-ray release in late October which is another way to promote JL in November.

Pretty sure she'll be on blue ray for jla.pretty much an entire season between the two. WW dvd/blu ray sales will help and be helped by the pending film release.

I think by the time this is said and down at least one of those numbers is going to be over taken.

 

[Iceman]

Pretty sure she'll be on blue ray for jla.pretty much an entire season between the two. WW dvd/blu ray sales will help and be helped by the pending film release.

I think by the time this is said and down at least one of those numbers is going to be over taken.

Exactly. It goes both ways.

 

[Greenlite]

Yes, though I thought it was established that WB needs to give theaters incentives to keep playing towards the end of its run, otherwise theaters can stop playing them but WB wants to achieve certain milestones.

I don't know if theaters are happy to keep playing when WW is making 200-300K/day across the country, or if they need incentives and bribery from WB I honest have no idea lol.

 

[macphisto96]

I thought this had been cleared up in this thread already. How long it stays in theaters is up to the theater owners, not WB. Theaters will decide to keep playing it as long as it's making them money, and WB won't try to stop them. Why would they not let their movie play? They make money by doing nothing, why would they suddenly say: "Stop playing our movie right now! No, really, we don't want any more money, please stop giving us your money!".

Also, "competing" with Justice League is a very weird way to put it. A movie making a few 100k in a month is hardly going to "compete" with a movie making hundreds of millions lol. It really wouldn't have any affect on Justice League.

That would be like someone announcing that their small independent movie will be released 10 theaters on December 15th and Disney then trying to stop that movie from releasing because Star Wars comes out on that date and they're "scared of the competition"

Exactly this. If WW continues to draw they will keep playing it. It's always a game to see if you have something that can draw more in a certain theater. When I ran a theater, that was what I had to decide each week. We'd have expectations for new releases from corporate, though sometimes we'd have to switch things out on the fly if a new release would bomb and last week's release was holding better - you'd have to switch theaters around. We always had contractual obligations for a minimum run and those could vary depending on the release. Basically whenever we'd receive notice of the new film, we'd also get the mandated run. Back then we still received prints that had to be spliced (and we had some digital - not all theaters were converted to digital at my theater) and each print had a contractual obligation with it. There was always one print with the longest obligation - usually six weeks was the minimum requirement.

However, we never had any requirements about WHICH theater we would show a film in. The largest ones had around 350 seats and the smallest had around 50.

It was not odd to have a film run 4-5 times a day in those 50 seat theaters for a couple of months after the hoopla had died down and we'd have films that we do weekly capacity at 70% or more. You could take in over $8,000 a week on box office off one of those small theaters and if the film was late in its run, we'd keep half of that or better.

Wonder Woman seems to me the kind of movie that can run for awhile in those small theaters and continue to draw decent size crowds, slowing crawling up the box office ladder.

In those little theaters, everybody wins. They're not as hectic for the viewer. A steady draw is steady income for the theater - and we usually had a higher concession buy rate in the smaller theaters. And when a film makes it to the point it can have a longer run in a smaller theater, everything the studio is getting as its share if gravy.

I suspect we'll get a digital release in late September or early October. That'll be when most theaters will close it out. Physical media will probably release just about a month ahead of Justice League and they'll use the Wonder Woman home release to push JL.

The good news is WW's holds mean a lot of theaters will hold onto it for awhile because it is steady income. The amazing thing to me is it is still around at some of the smaller theaters in my area - like 10 screen theaters. AMC is holding Wonder Woman at their local 10 screen classic theater (they also have a 20 screen multiplex nearby too) while dropping Transformers and Cars 3. That tells you all you need to know. A theater with limited screens is ditching newer films in favor of one that has been out for six weeks. And it's actually still on one of their midsize screens because it draws.

 

[Iceman]

I don't see why the $400m milestone is that important to anyone apart from people like us haha. Maybe a global billion dollar one can be used for marketing but I've never seen any of these other minor milestones be used for much (and zero awareness by anyone I know in the GA). It might be different if the margin was the difference between some particular title like being no.1 film ever (unadjusted) or no.1 CBM.

 

[Marathon]

Screendaily says WW has grossed $380.8m overseas before the weekend:

http://www.screendaily.com/news/war...INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40079

 

[Greenlite]

The good news is WW's holds mean a lot of theaters will hold onto it for awhile because it is steady income. The amazing thing to me is it is still around at some of the smaller theaters in my area - like 10 screen theaters. AMC is holding Wonder Woman at their local 10 screen classic theater (they also have a 20 screen multiplex nearby too) while dropping Transformers and Cars 3. That tells you all you need to know. A theater with limited screens is ditching newer films in favor of one that has been out for six weeks. And it's actually still on one of their midsize screens because it draws.

Thanks for the insight, I wish I could run a theater

Do studios give out "incentives" to theaters and if so what are they? Thanks.

I don't see why the $400m milestone is that important to anyone apart from people like us haha. Maybe a global billion dollar one can be used for marketing but I've never seen any of these other minor milestones be used for much (and zero awareness by anyone I know in the GA). It might be different if the margin was the difference between some particular title like being no.1 film ever (unadjusted) or no.1 CBM.

It's bloody important damit

Just MOS got 291M and 300M would have made it look a lot better i.e. "Superman joins the 300M club." If Diana gets to 400M it's like WW joins the 400M club which is exclusive to solo superheroes like Bat, Spidey and IM, and if it's beating Spidey and IM WB could of course market it as the highest solo superhero movie other than Batman and the press can go hyperbole on it for the sequel. More catchy marketing slogans etc for the next round I guess

 

[Greenlite]

Pretty sure she'll be on blue ray for jla.pretty much an entire season between the two. WW dvd/blu ray sales will help and be helped by the pending film release.

I think by the time this is said and down at least one of those numbers is going to be over taken.

Ya like a sneak peak into JL in WW's blu rays might bump up her sale a bit as well, bilateral cross-marketing, quite fresh for WB too.

 

[macphisto96]

Thanks for the insight, I wish I could run a theater

Do studios give out "incentives" to theaters and if so what are they? Thanks.

Rarely. On occasion they have given the parent company extra share of the box office take to hold a film in larger theaters throughout the chain. Even in a chain, most decisions about which theater to run a film in are decided by the GM of the theater. You can get directives from the chain and it's the chain that handles the dispersal of box office funds back to the distributor. You could tell if there was an incentive a few weeks into a run when they'd issue a seating and how requirement for a particular film. But it wasn't common. A low draw movie would have to have a big incentive on it for the space needed to run it. The benefit of a lower draw is staffing is also lower, but you always run high electric bills that you need to pay. There were times if a film failed to sell a seat that we'd run it, but would turn off the bulb on the projector to save some power. You'd run the film just to be sure you could turn it on in case anyone did buy a ticket. Any late night shows that didn't sell might be cancelled as you near the weekend so we could screen new films early. Even in the digital age, you need to screen a movie before you show it to the public to be sure everything works right. For the bigger films, you'd often invite employees in after close to watch it ahead of everyone. We'd live the popcorn heater on and turn the soda fountains back on so everyone could drink soda and eat popcorn to their heart's content.

Anyways, it would take a heavy incentive for a theater to decide to hold a movie that was out of contract and not drawing. For a film doing well over time, the studio can decide to reinvest in some ads. They will usually five the theaters a heads up if they are going to do some more ads. I could see WB doing that down the line - a small investment, but it can be enough to boost sales in the smaller theaters for a couple of weeks. You're not talking tons more money, but a small targeted ad buy can push a couple of million more into a film. In the modern world you'd be talking about a social media push or possibly some inexpensive local radio and TV in markets where the film has had a stronger showing.

A film like Wonder Woman does a good job taking care of itself because it seems to have cut across pretty much every demographic. The fact that it is still pulling in over a million a day on weekdays this far into its run is stunning. The only films that do that have broad appeal.

 

[Dianafan]

Hi, Heath Ledger raised awareness via TDK and an Oscar win, Oscar controversy for not nominating Nolan and later expanding the nominee list gave TDK/Nolan more exposure, blu-ray/TV audiences catching on, Nolan brand cemented with Dicaprio led Inception, China market opening up for Rises, finale of a popular series, and unfortunately the tragedy of the movie's opening day drove down domestic numbers but made Rises headlines around the world.

Plus been a good movie helps as well.

Not that this has a ton to do with Wonder Woman, but since you mentioned the Dark Knight being a factor in why the Academy expanded the nominee list, I was always under the impression that it was both The Dark Knight and Wall-E that forced that issue. I could be wrong about that, though this post was more a question then an absolute factual comment. Wall-E got quite a bit of buzz that year, and didn't get nominated at all for best picture. Up, the next year, did however.

Don't get me wrong, I wasn't suggesting you were incorrect about The Dark Knight, I just think Wall-E deserves some mention, though this being a superhero board, I can understand the overlook.

Hope Wonder Woman can continue her hot streak at the box office though, and get to 400 million domestically.

 

[Greenlite]

Anyways, it would take a heavy incentive for a theater to decide to hold a movie that was out of contract and not drawing. For a film doing well over time, the studio can decide to reinvest in some ads. They will usually five the theaters a heads up if they are going to do some more ads. I could see WB doing that down the line - a small investment, but it can be enough to boost sales in the smaller theaters for a couple of weeks. You're not talking tons more money, but a small targeted ad buy can push a couple of million more into a film. In the modern world you'd be talking about a social media push or possibly some inexpensive local radio and TV in markets where the film has had a stronger showing.

A film like Wonder Woman does a good job taking care of itself because it seems to have cut across pretty much every demographic. The fact that it is still pulling in over a million a day on weekdays this far into its run is stunning. The only films that do that have broad appeal.

Thanks for your detailed and generous reply

I wish I have friends who own theaters and invite me for "special previews"

Not that this has a ton to do with Wonder Woman, but since you mentioned the Dark Knight being a factor in why the Academy expanded the nominee list, I was always under the impression that it was both The Dark Knight and Wall-E that forced that issue. I could be wrong about that, though this post was more a question then an absolute factual comment. Wall-E got quite a bit of buzz that year, and didn't get nominated at all for best picture. Up, the next year, did however.

Don't get me wrong, I wasn't suggesting you were incorrect about The Dark Knight, I just think Wall-E deserves some mention, though this being a superhero board, I can understand the overlook.

Hope Wonder Woman can continue her hot streak at the box office though, and get to 400 million domestically.

I love Walle! I've never seen an article about Walle/Oscar etc, but you're probably right. Did it get an animation nom though? So Up passed the animation category for best pictures?

 

[Dianafan]

Thanks for your detailed and generous reply

I wish I have friends who own theaters and invite me for "special previews"



I love Walle! I've never seen an article about Walle/Oscar etc, but you're probably right. Did it get an animation nom though? So Up passed the animation category for best pictures?

I don't want to go off on a tangent away from Wonder Woman, as I know that is what this thread is about, but Wall-E did get some Oscar buzz, though Disney felt it was because it was nominated for best animated (and won) that it wasn't included for best picture. Wall-E was the Chicago, Los Angeles and Boston critics choice for best movie (animated or otherwise, though with Boston, it tied Academy Award winner Slumdog Millionaire). Time Magazine named it the movie of the year, and then later on, named it the movie of the decade. (What's all the more impressive about the accolade of it being named the best movie of the decade, is the fact that #2 on the list is the Lord of the Rings trilogy.) Peter Travers of Rolling Stone stated, "If there was ever a time where an animated feature deserved to be nominated for best picture it's Wall-E." The National Board of Review also included it in the top ten films. The very next Pixar movie out of the gate, Up, which was a good movie, was the second animated movie ever to be nominated for best picture (Beauty and the Beast was the first, when they only had 5 nominees. However, with BatB, there was no animated movie category back then.) Also out that year was Kung-Fu Panda, which oddly took all the Annie awards away from Wall-E including animated movie of the year, meaning Wall-E didn't win a single Annie award in any category. That notwithstanding though, the fact it was so overwhelmingly received (96% on Rotten tomatoes, with only 9 rotten reviews) and was the type of artistic movie the Academy should have been drooling over, I believe Wall-E, as well as Dark Knight forced the Academy's hand. The Dark Knight wasn't the type of movie the Academy usually awarded, and Wall-E wasn't the type the Academy hugely accepted as an adult film. Both being out of this world successes, I think made a difference.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accolades_received_by_WALL-E

Anyways, onto the Wonder Woman box-office watch. I do hope it does well, though it has already done awesome. It's so close to a few other milestones, it'd be great if it got to them.

 

[Marvin]

Ya like a sneak peak into JL in WW's blu rays might bump up her sale a bit as well, bilateral cross-marketing, quite fresh for WB too.

Maybe they will do a see it again/for the last time in theaters sort of re-release. How much do those usually add?
Do it in october, while all her jla tv spots are floating around.

 

[Greenlite]

Spoiler

I don't want to go off on a tangent away from Wonder Woman, as I know that is what this thread is about, but Wall-E did get some Oscar buzz, though Disney felt it was because it was nominated for best animated (and won) that it wasn't included for best picture. Wall-E was the Chicago, Los Angeles and Boston critics choice for best movie (animated or otherwise, though with Boston, it tied Academy Award winner Slumdog Millionaire). Time Magazine named it the movie of the year, and then later on, named it the movie of the decade. (What's all the more impressive about the accolade of it being named the best movie of the decade, is the fact that #2 on the list is the Lord of the Rings trilogy.) Peter Travers of Rolling Stone stated, "If there was ever a time where an animated feature deserved to be nominated for best picture it's Wall-E." The National Board of Review also included it in the top ten films. The very next Pixar movie out of the gate, Up, which was a good movie, was the second animated movie ever to be nominated for best picture (Beauty and the Beast was the first, when they only had 5 nominees. However, with BatB, there was no animated movie category back then.) Also out that year was Kung-Fu Panda, which oddly took all the Annie awards away from Wall-E including animated movie of the year, meaning Wall-E didn't win a single Annie award in any category. That notwithstanding though, the fact it was so overwhelmingly received (96% on Rotten tomatoes, with only 9 rotten reviews) and was the type of artistic movie the Academy should have been drooling over, I believe Wall-E, as well as Dark Knight forced the Academy's hand. The Dark Knight wasn't the type of movie the Academy usually awarded, and Wall-E wasn't the type the Academy hugely accepted as an adult film. Both being out of this world successes, I think made a difference.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accolades_received_by_WALL-E

Anyways, onto the Wonder Woman box-office watch. I do hope it does well, though it has already done awesome. It's so close to a few other milestones, it'd be great if it got to them.

Thanks! They should give Brad Bird and Chris Nolan a lifetime award or something in 20 years

Maybe they will do a see it again/for the last time in theaters sort of re-release. How much do those usually add?
Do it in october, while all her jla tv spots are floating around.

My little research tells me TDK earned $997M before re-release and ended with 1.005M, so another 8M?

I also would like to know do studios make profit out of "second round" theaters that specializes in showing movies that are a few months old, not sure if there are many around the world though.

 

[spiderman2]

That would only be around 90 days though. Suicide Squad played for 98 days. And at day 41 SS only made $358 thousand as compared to $1.26 million for WW at day 41.
SS was still playing when it was only making $20 thousand a day. Depending on the drop off WW, WB should let WW be playing in September or beyond. The only reason
I can see for WB pulling Wonder Woman is that WB probably doesn't want WW competing with Justice League in November. So maybe even into October.

When I hear something like 98 days for a movie to be in theaters that sounds crazy to me because that is like 3 months and a week or something and most movies are only in theatures around me for about a month and a half.