Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 5

[iEquinox]

Just so we know what the Japan number mean when they come in:
If it follows GotG2 or BvS, the Japan total after Sunday would be between $6.8M and $7.4M(With $1.5-1.55M for the 2-day weekend). If the Japan number is within that range and it keeps following those movies after this weekend, it would end between $11.7M and $12.6M.

Deadline should have their weekly OS article up later today. Hopefully Wonder Woman's Japan numbers will be included in it.

Wonder Woman is on course to collect in excess of 1 million for the 15th straight weekend since it's debut in theaters. WW needs too drop 47.9% to stay above 1 million for the 15th weekend. WW's worst weekend drop so far is 39.6% (not considering the 2nd weekend [43.3%] drop as it's usually always big for front-loaded CBMs). I think it's very much within the realm of possibilities. Gigantic CBMs usually don't go beyond (11-12) weekends above 1 million in a row. That'll put WW in some esteemed company.

Weekend drop will be bigger than usual next weekend since it's coming off a holiday but yeah, $1M is within reach. Comparing to other movies for the "most weekends above $1M in a row" isn't really a fair comparison though since it would already have ended that streak last weekend without the expansion.

 

[rashad]

Domestic: $408,939,021
+ Foreign: $403,700,000
= Worldwide: $812,639,021

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So if we consider at least 90% of the 3.7 million WW added since last Sunday to come from Japan, it adds upto [3.38+(0.9x3.7)]=6.71 million. It doesn't even touch iEquinox's lower end of the range. #Tragic

If it's almost 96%, then the Japanese figure becomes [3.38+(3.7x0.96)]=6.93 million. Slightly better but still tragic.

 

[UncleSam1776]

So if we consider at least 90% of the 3.7 million WW added since last Sunday to come from Japan, it adds upto [3.38+(0.9x3.7)]=6.71 million. It doesn't even touch iEquinox's lower end of the range. #Tragic

If it's almost 96%, then the Japanese figure becomes [3.38+(3.7x0.96)]=6.93 million. Slightly better but still tragic.

Only tragic for those that were expecting WW to perform like a Disney princess movie. It was never going to happen.

 

[Micromind]

Still hoping that WW earns close to 15M in Japan, chances are slim, but I have hope.

 

[Micromind]

That's Great ! Well done Diana !

Spoiler

https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/903994265717678080

Spoiler

Scott Mendelson article incoming..

Called it.

Wonder Woman earned another $445,000 (-9%) over the Fri-Sun weekend, putting its domestic total at $408.9 million. That pushes it past The Hunger Games and Captain America: Civil War, for 21st place in all-time (unadjusted) domestic box office history. And it’ll have around $409.5m by the end of the holiday, meaning it’ll pass Iron Man 3 ($409m) tomorrow to become the fifth-biggest superhero movie ever in North America (behind The Avengers, Avengers: Age of Ultron, The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises) and the 20th-biggest domestic grosser of all time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...baby-driver-tops-200m-worldwide/#328d77501362

 

[iEquinox]

So if we consider at least 90% of the 3.7 million WW added since last Sunday to come from Japan, it adds upto [3.38+(0.9x3.7)]=6.71 million. It doesn't even touch iEquinox's lower end of the range. #Tragic

If it's almost 96%, then the Japanese figure becomes [3.38+(3.7x0.96)]=6.93 million. Slightly better but still tragic.

Should be more than 90%, last weekend it made $3.39M in Japan and $3.5M for the OS total, so about 97% of that was from Japan. A bit annoying though that WB doesn't give exact foreign numbers like most other studios. We can't tell the difference between $50k and $149k because they round their numbers to the nearest $100k :/

And I don't think there's anything tragic about performing like a standard Marvel/DC superhero movie in Japan. It was already performing like a standard Marvel/DC superhero movie in foreign markets overall, and that's not "tragic" either

 

[DeadPresident]

Called it.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...baby-driver-tops-200m-worldwide/#328d77501362

So basically, it did incredibly well at the BO and WB are probably ecstatic.

 

[Iceman]

Domestic: $408,939,021
+ Foreign: $403,700,000
= Worldwide: $812,639,021

Beautiful numbers!

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Only tragic for those that were expecting WW to perform like a Disney princess movie. It was never going to happen.

I did not expect a Disney Princess movie or more specifically a Frozen like run for WW. I would have been happy with 15 million. I initially thought WW will gross somewhere around (16-17) million. Slightly better or in and around the ballpark of BvS and Skwad. If iEquinox's projection holds and chances are very high that it will, WW finishes it's run in Japan with 12.6 million. I did expect better but that's on me and I make it quite clear in my previous posts

I even acknowledged that WW is doing good. Go back to the last page,

We must forget about the Japanese figures. They are gonna be tragic. WW isn't even touching 15 million.

Seriously tho, it's doing good enough. I was expecting more but that's on me.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It's interesting that even with the Digital Release this week, Wonder Woman remained pretty much unscathed. Maybe it did knock down a considerable amount, I would have no idea about that but the overall increase in FSS numbers for the extended weekend is really impressive in the face of the digital release. Go Diana

 

[iEquinox]

From deadline:

Wonder Woman (WB): $1.5M intl weekend (Japan only)

http://deadline.com/2017/09/dunkirk...-results-international-box-office-1202160309/

Which means the Japan weekend is following the standard superhero trajectory so far, like I said here:

Just so we know what the Japan number mean when they come in:
If it follows GotG2 or BvS, the Japan total after Sunday would be between $6.8M and $7.4M(With $1.5-1.55M for the 2-day weekend). If the Japan number is within that range and it keeps following those movies after this weekend, it would end between $11.7M and $12.6M.

Deadline should have their weekly OS article up later today. Hopefully Wonder Woman's Japan numbers will be included in it.

 

[wonder213]

As I said before, WAR movies don't do well in Japan for pretty obvious reasons - unless the film is set in Japan, culturally relevant or exceptionally well-made.

Also, WW is not well-known in Japan compared to Batman or Superman (not to mention Spider-man).

The bar is pretty low anyway (Captain America: The First Avenger $3.4M, Man of Steel $9M, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $16.5M).

It's somewhat unreasonable to expect an origin/solo movie to do better internationally than ensemble movies - or BvS which featured not one but two of the most well-known superheroes in the world.

People who've seen it seemed to like it so that's good.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

JW made 3.37 million after it's 14th weekend. WW after it's 14th weekend had way more theater counts (1,808>1,169) but still managed a slightly [really tiny 1,062 (WW)>1,010 (JW)] better PTA. But WW also had the advantage of the LD weekend FSS. JW has the advantage of the LD Monday in it's total at that point.

In any case if WW manages 3 million after LD Weekend FSS (excluding Monday), it ends up with [408.9+3]=411.9 million. If we adjust the LD Monday figure in there in some manner, WW goes over 412 million.

If we try to consider the total after the 15th weekend (stabilized after the big drop from LD weekend before this one), JW made a further 2.47 million to the till the end of it's run. JW's 15th weekend was 636k. (JW was one week late in 2015 for the calendar configuration so it needs to be adjusted accordingly and you can come up with solutions regarding that)

While WW should gross at least around 864k (around -55%).

WW at the end of the 14th week should look like [408.9+(0.54+0.12+0.09+0.08)]=409.73 million

So WW will need 2.27 million to hit that 4.0 multiplier. Can WW do it?? Will the Blu-Ray/DVD release late in Sept. prove to be a big hindrance?? What's your thoughts, iEquinox??

 

[Blitzkrieg]

^^ Ignore the 1st paragraph. JW already completed it's LD weekend and I already included that total to calculate the remaining BO returns.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It's somewhat unreasonable to expect an origin/solo movie to do better internationally than ensemble movies - or BvS which featured not one but two of the most well-known superheroes in the world.

This is a very good point. My expectations were not that reasonable in the first place. WW only opened higher in South Korea and another OS country (the name beats me atm) out of all the foreign territories. BvS was most likely even bigger or on par with Skwad in most OS markets. Hoping that WW will match or even go higher than those 2 ensemble CBMs was setting myself up for disappointment.

 

[wonder213]

WW's out on digital 5 days ago - but some fans will want to watch it one more time on the big screen I guess... That's what made it a hit.

It's pretty amazing if you consider the 3-month window (opened 6/2, digital 8/29, DVD 9/19), compared to, say, Captain America: Civil War - 4 mos (opened 5/5/16, digital 9/2, DVD 9/13).

Sorry if this has been discussed but any idea WHY the short window?

Not unreasonable for a modest hit but WW is huge! Something to do with Justice League?

 

[Iceman]

Will be nice to be able to watch it as much as I want finally.

 

[Greenlite]

Will be nice to be able to watch it as much as I want finally.

Like watching it while wrestling with Gina Carano naked?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Sorry if this has been discussed but any idea WHY the short window?

We should look at the release schedule of recent WB movies:

CHIPS - 3/24 to 6/27 (Around 14 weeks)
King Arthur - 5/12 to 8/8 (Around 13 weeks)

Kong:Skull Island - 3/10 to 7/18 (Around 19 weeks)
Lego Batman - 2/10 to 6/13 (Around 18 weeks)


WW releases on Blu-Ray/DVD formats around 16 weeks from the theatrical release date. Standard stuff from Warner Bros.

 

[iEquinox]

JW made 3.37 million after it's 14th weekend. WW after it's 14th weekend had way more theater counts (1,808>1,169) but still managed a slightly [really tiny 1,062 (WW)>1,010 (JW)] better PTA. But WW also had the advantage of the LD weekend FSS. JW has the advantage of the LD Monday in it's total at that point.

In any case if WW manages 3 million after LD Weekend FSS (excluding Monday), it ends up with [408.9+3]=411.9 million. If we adjust the LD Monday figure in there in some manner, WW goes over 412 million.

If we try to consider the total after the 15th weekend (stabilized after the big drop from LD weekend before this one), JW made a further 2.47 million to the till the end of it's run. JW's 15th weekend was 636k. (JW was one week late in 2015 for the calendar configuration so it needs to be adjusted accordingly and you can come up with solutions regarding that)

While WW should gross at least around 864k (around -55%).

WW at the end of the 14th week should look like [408.9+(0.54+0.12+0.09+0.08)]=409.73 million

So WW will need 2.27 million to hit that 4.0 multiplier. Can WW do it?? Will the Blu-Ray/DVD release late in Sept. prove to be a big hindrance?? What's your thoughts, iEquinox??

It's hard to tell what will happen because it's not a standard situation with a lot of comparable movies.

Looking at Jurassic World, following the same multiplier it got from its Labor Day weekend would get Wonder Woman to about $412.82M, less than $200k away from the 4x multiplier.

Wonder Woman is potentially facing the highest September opening weekend of all time next weekend though. Competition is stronger than it was in August so that could hurt it a bit. So basically it's hard to tell, but it looks like it's still possible.

Tracking its holds compared to Jurassic World should keep us updated about how likely it is at any given point. As long as it can keep up with those drops, the chances of reaching a 4x multiplier are still very alive.

 

[Iceman]

Like watching it while wrestling with Gina Carano naked?

Yes she's been bugging me about that. Will have to arrange as soon as I get free.

 

[DlAMONDZ]

Domestic: $408,939,021
+ Foreign: $403,700,000
= Worldwide: $812,639,021

Yay! Now WB's gonna announce another Joker movie to celebrate

 

[jmc]

How much juice left in this?

 

[iEquinox]

How much juice left in this?

Should be roughly $10M more worldwide for a final worldwide total in the low $820M range.