Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread

Discussion in 'Wonder Woman' started by MessiahDecoy123, Dec 4, 2014.

?

How much WORLDWIDE???

  1. Over 1 billion WW

  2. 800m-1 billion

  3. 600-800 m

  4. 400-600 m

  5. 200-400 m

  6. Under 200 million WW

  7. Over 1 billion WW

  8. 800m-1 billion

  9. 600-800 m

  10. 400-600 m

  11. 200-400 m

  12. Under 200 million WW

  13. Over 1 billion WW

  14. 800m-1 billion

  15. 600-800 m

  16. 400-600 m

  17. 200-400 m

  18. Under 200 million WW

  19. Over 1 billion WW

  20. 800m-1 billion

  21. 600-800 m

  22. 400-600 m

  23. 200-400 m

  24. Under 200 million WW

  25. Over 1 billion WW

  26. 800m-1 billion

  27. 600-800 m

  28. 400-600 m

  29. 200-400 m

  30. Under 200 million WW

  31. Over 1 billion WW

  32. 800m-1 billion

  33. 600-800 m

  34. 400-600 m

  35. 200-400 m

  36. Under 200 million WW

  37. Over 1 billion WW

  38. 800m-1 billion

  39. 600-800 m

  40. 400-600 m

  41. 200-400 m

  42. Under 200 million WW

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  1. Blitzkrieg Registered

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    Anyway, sequels generally will have stronger pre-sales and Thursday preview numbers. That's the norm. Don't compare the pre-sales of GOTG Vol 2 with WW. The first one is a sequel to a beloved movie not from long ago and WW is an origin movie and the character was only introduced in a glorified cameo role in the previous DCEU movie. Both are really very different cases.
     
  2. Clark Wayne Registered

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    We can speculate (I think 100mil opening wknd) But this particular movie is MUCH harder. WB is using a completely new marketing strategy using data analytics to pinpoint target certain demographics. Demographics I dont fall in. Does the character Wonder Woman hold any weight? Will it be like Batman Begins and open small but have legs? Will it open modestly but have legs? Ultimately the one thing that matters most is... will the movie be good? If it's genuinly good . Like a 4/5 stars I think it could flirt with 1 bil. If it is 3/5 or less? Ughhh as a DC fan it could be disastrous.DC has a steep hill to climb.
     
  3. Blitzkrieg Registered

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    Indeed. This matters the most. If the movie is good, it'll make bank.

    It's not going to be close, let alone touching 1 Billion at the BO.
     
  4. Dark Raven The Gal from Themyscira

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    I want this movie to do well. They're already talking about a sequel and Patty Jenkins has some ideas on where to take this. But that may not happen if this movie doesn't do well. I don't want her ending up like MOS where Superman gets his own movie taken over by Batman and now seems to be not so prominent.

    I'd love for WW to become the face of the DCEU.
     
  5. dhandler01 Half breed!

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    Yeah I dont see it getting anywhere near it either nor does it need to. WW anything about 600 million should be easily obtainable though and will be seen as a success with the hypothesized budgets. My prediction though is it gets close to SS numbers worldwide in part because of China.
     
  6. Blitzkrieg Registered

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    :up: :up:


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    We shouldn't forget that Gadot was voted the most popular actress in China. Chinese numbers may well surprise us.

    I admit breaking up your post was just an excuse to post WonderGal's pics. :o :o
     
  7. Wildcard Cataclysmic Titan

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    Right. $65-$70 million is a low, low prediction for someone who helped carry a film as divisive as BvS. I honestly think had WW not been apart of BvS, it'd have made less than Deadpool.

    There's no way she's opening as low as $65 million.
     
  8. dhandler01 Half breed!

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    I aint mad at ya :)
     
  9. Greenlite Registered

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    Almost forgot Gal was in the FF franchise which is making banks in China right now.

    Would be interesting to follow that guy "Olive" on boxofficetheory China forum, see what activities are happening there.
     
  10. kguillou Registered

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    Sighh, this is gonna sound silly but I'm very superstitious whenever directors, producers, whoever start talking about sequels before the movie comes out. I feel like more often than not that always jinxes the film (see most recent example, Power Rangers). I think this'll do quite well but lets not jinx the movie and get overzealous, lets let this film play out.
     
  11. Greenlite Registered

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    I see some movies that are received well/has good b.o. and their filmmakers were talking about sequels before the release - latest i.e. GOTG2

    But I agree about not jinxing it, the worst example would be "Patty should direct WW2, JL2 or MOS2"...10 months ago it was "Ayer should direct JL2, Batman and MOS2" :o
     
  12. Micromind New World New Rules

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    Well, Ayer is still directing something in DCEU. :rimshot:
     
  13. kguillou Registered

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    Actually, I was more talking about films that are supposed to start a franchise. We all knew GoTG 2 was getting a third movie no matter what. ;)
     
  14. Filmfan93 The Man in Black

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    She hasn't been in the FF franchise for 4 years already.
     
  15. Micromind New World New Rules

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    What would you say if Wonder Woman is received positively by the general audience and it gets around 65 % RT rating but only makes 500 mil world wide ?

    June month is filled with Summer blockbuster movies that will eat into each others revenues. WW movie will not have legs like Batman Begins, irrespective of it's quality and RT rating, neither it has any chance of passing 750 mil. (earned by Suicide Squad) worldwide.

    What if your own personal opinion about the movie says it is good but Critics find it just passable, Is it disastrous ?
     
  16. Wonder89 Registered

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    500m will be a great box office, Captain America was 375m...
     
  17. Micromind New World New Rules

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    Exactly, asking it to earn 1 bil. is ridiculous.

    Similarly, expecting it to earn unanimous critical acclaim is also ridiculous as this is first movie with Gal Gadot as the lead, no one delivers like that in his (or her) first movie.

    Unrealistic expectations have to be checked, unless someone is looking to put blame on her. Things would have been much easier if WB had chosen a different release date and if Batman V Superman and Suicide Squad had got positive reception.
     
  18. kguillou Registered

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    I think WB's main goal is to win critics back. If this doesnt break the box office bank but is critically lauded, and i dont even mean unanimously, but something along the lines of what Alien Covenant is getting, then the studio would see that as a huge win.

    Critical and audience approval for this means foreward momentum for Justice League and you can bet your bottom dollar Gal will be front and center on every JL poster from July onward lol.
     
  19. dnno1 Registered

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    I think I know where they are getting that $65 million figure. First of all forecasting is not an exact science and there are many ways to come up with an estimate of what could happen with a future business proposition. One of those methods is to use historical evidence.

    [​IMG]

    If you look at the opening weekends for most Action Heroine or CBM films going back to 2000, the average opening weekend is just under $65 million (corrected for inflation - BvS was added to this list because Wonder Woman was featured in it). The folks at Deadline Hollywood might be looking at every action heroine film after that time since, if you do that, the average is about that much. Now if you look back to the when action heroine films started to become popular (around the time The Hunger Games series started), the average is over $107 million. this might be where The Wrap is getting their estimate from. Another way of estimating is through projected proceeds from advance tickets, which went on sale a couple of weeks ago. Because of the competition sensitivity of that type of information, it is doubtful that sources like Deadline Hollywood, or The Wrap had any info about the ticket sales, but the studio does. I would tend to believe their estimate better than the crude on those other outlet have published.

    In my book ,the fact that the Wonder Woman film will have a lot of women going to see it, that Bruce Wayne may cameo, and that this film will be tied to the other in the DCEU series, will make the opening weekend higher than what these analysts are expecting.
     
  20. dnno1 Registered

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    Demanding that it earn $1 billion when it doesn't need to is ridiculous. The film supposedly cost $175 to make. It only needs to gross $320 million in its first three weeks to break even.
     
  21. Wildcard Cataclysmic Titan

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    That's the stigma that comes with superhero movies: anything that doesn't make $1 billion is automatically a failure. :o
     
  22. idiot09 Kicks side

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    Where did that 175M figure come up from? Last I heard it was more in the ~$150M range which makes perfect sense. Think about say Godzilla. Made around 500M in a 160M budget. Considered a success. Or Thor. Made about 450M on a 130M budget, considered a success. 500M+, and WW is a success too.
     
  23. dnno1 Registered

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    There was never an official report on the actual budget (although sources say that it was upwards of $100 million), so I used the same figure quoted for the latest King Author movie ($175 million) to be conservative. Like I said before, if the film makes more than $320 million within the first three weekends, it should break even. Anything over that would make it a success.
     
  24. Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    Yep.
     
  25. Joined:
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    Is there tracking today?
     
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