Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[def28]

One thing I do want Fox to do is keeping pushing the story forward (with obvious retooling, course corrections, adjustments etc. of course). As we've seen with characters like Hawkeye, it is possible to build upon characters over multiple films. We just haven't able to see that besides a select few in this franchise. Being a power display is one thing, but being a one and done power display is even worse.

Deadpool can help a bit with trying to create a unified brand/universe for Fox, but they'll have to make sure those other spinoffs are hits so they're not carrying all of their eggs in one basket with the flagship X-Men film (and a basket that can only contain a limited amount of mutants it seems)

X-Men can have a ton of mutants. They just need to develop them properly. Instead they start to develop then just drop them or kill off characters who probably could have been used somewhere or even as Horsemen.

Banshee and Frost could have had a place. But for whatever reason Azazel and Angel Salvadore were not enough death to get the point across or something. There are just odd choices that are driven by adding new characters for the sake of it . If you can't bring a new character to the screen and why they work as characters, or give the audience some sort of reason to connect then don't. I think we all want to see Archangel and Betsy, but no fan wants to see them wasted. We already saw that in X3.

 

[Wildcard]

I think it's a race between this and Suicide Squad for the lowest grossing CBM of the year.

Nah, I think Suicide Squad will be fine. Will it be the highest grossing superhero flick? Probably not, but it won't be the lowest either.

Imo, that will fall between either this or Doctor Strange. While I expect DS to have great numbers, I don't see it cracking higher than $600 million.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Nah, I think Suicide Squad will be fine. Will it be the highest grossing superhero flick? Probably not, but it won't be the lowest either.

Imo, that will fall between either this or Doctor Strange. While I expect DS to have great numbers, I don't see it cracking higher than $600 million.

Suicide Squad will not be fine, especially after the toxic reaction to BvS. DC brand right now is severely tarnished.

Doc Strange on the other hand will be coming off a critically and fan acclaimed success in CW, and has the unblemished Marvel Brand. It will kill at the box office, especially with that awesome cast.

 

[jaymes_e06]

Eh... it has garnered the most mixed reaction from the ga and fans so far from what I've seen, DS that is. Idk what will do well nor do I feel like I know what I'll like based in critic reviews anymore as I diddidn't enjoy CW as much as I thought I would. It's all a ****ing toss up at this point.

 

[YoungBlood]

Suicide Squad will not be fine, especially after the toxic reaction to BvS. DC brand right now is severely tarnished.

Doc Strange on the other hand will be coming off a critically and fan acclaimed success in CW, and has the unblemished Marvel Brand. It will kill at the box office, especially with that awesome cast.

That is, if the whitewashing controversy don't affect the box office.

 

[jaymes_e06]

That is, if the whitewashing controversy don't affect the box office.

It did Gods of Egypt.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

Suicide Squad will not be fine, especially after the toxic reaction to BvS. DC brand right now is severely tarnished.

Doc Strange on the other hand will be coming off a critically and fan acclaimed success in CW, and has the unblemished Marvel Brand. It will kill at the box office, especially with that awesome cast.

I disagree with that, Suicide Squad has a lot of things going for it most notably the Joker. Both SS and DS are too different and unrelated to BvS and CW respectively to be significantly affected by their reception. I'm a lot more interested in Doctor Strange but I'm not sure what makes it so appealing that would make a ton of money.

 

[Sithborg]

It did Gods of Egypt.

That was fairly blatant.

Also, it looked like crap from the start, so...

 

[jaymes_e06]

That was fairly blatant.

Also, it looked like crap from the start, so...

Just saying and how is DS any different? They clearly went with a white woman to play an asian man. I think Cumberbatch playing him in general is visually whitewashing him a bit as well but that's for another thread.

 

[Wildcard]

Suicide Squad will not be fine, especially after the toxic reaction to BvS. DC brand right now is severely tarnished.

Doc Strange on the other hand will be coming off a critically and fan acclaimed success in CW, and has the unblemished Marvel Brand. It will kill at the box office, especially with that awesome cast.

I think you're overestimating the amount of people that will actually care about BvS's critical reception, especially by the time August 5th rolls around.

And yes, DS will be coming off a critically & overall universally loved movie. It will kill at the box office, sure. But that doesn't mean its gross will surpass SS.

Considering Snyder isn't behind it (the guy is toxic for WB/DC) and the movie will feature both Joker & Harley Quinn, I'd say SS will be a massive success if it delivers on all fronts. Joker is more popular than Doctor Strange will ever be. Hell, Harley Quinn is too. And we already know that those two characters at least will be played to virtual perfection.

 

[Iceman]

X-Men isn't an instant butts-in-seats franchise anymore. It has to prove itself with the bumpy ride it's had. 500 million feels like the cap here.

If they'd got X3 right I think it would have become a huge franchise. But that was a much bigger setback than just being a badly received film. I don't think X-films will get to instant butts-in-seats level until they graduate from the past (not that I don't enjoy these films).

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I've watched Gods of Egypt and enjoyed it. But I know the Horus who tranforms into an awesome flyer will look and fly better than Archangel. Do you guys agree with me?

 

[StormC]

Dr. Strange could easily do GOTG numbers imo.

If they'd got X3 right I think it would have become a huge franchise. But that was a much bigger setback than just being a badly received film. I don't think X-films will get to instant butts-in-seats level until they graduate from the past (not that I don't enjoy these films).

I agree. I've said before if X3 had good reception I think a movie like DOFP could have scratched a billion.

 

[psylockolussus]

Doctor Strange would be fine! I cannot wait for it, and I also can't wait for Black Panther, Spider-Man Homecoming and Captain Marvel and of course Avengers 3!

 

[Tilapia]

If you ever reboot, the timeline must be completely modernized. The WWII history will be gone. It will have to be some type of Soviet history 1960's stuff for Magneto/Xavier where they are kids in the 60's/70's so they don't have to be 100 years old in the modern day. But alas, there is no point retreading the past.

I think they will retread the past for a few more films, but the new generation present day mutants will have to be different from the classic X-Men. The New Mutants, Negasonics of the world that don't sell with the fanbase even.

 

[psylockolussus]

Edit

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I know the movie will still do well. I still believe it will do better than DoFP.

 

[Raiden]

I know the movie will still do well. I still believe it will do better than DoFP.

I think the timing may hurt XMA. It is released only 3 weeks after CW, and if CW has very strong legs it will cut into XMA's box office. Plus, Through the Looking Glass will be another strong competition that will be competing at the same time. XMA will have to make its money quickly or rest of the summer movies will soon be coming up like tidal waves.

 

[Metamorpheus]

I think it's kind of ironic how the reception of the original trilogy mirrors this trilogy, both in reviews and most likely in box office as well. X-Men and First Class were both well liked by critics and nearly identical box office wise creating a good launching pad for the franchise, then X2 and DOFP both stepped it up a notch with reviews and box office further building goodwill, and it looks like XMA is about to lose a lot of that goodwill similar to Last Stand with an incoherent story and push the franchise back to the edge of the cliff again with bad reviews.

The irony is that Bryan Singer is the one leading this third movie whereas his absence was perceived as the reason for X3's failure. Let's hope Wolverine 3 and Gambit don't disappoint, the success of Deadpool on the other hand feels very irrelevant to Singer's X-Men universe. I think if Fox really wants future X-Men movies to compete with MCU, they need to start listening to the fans and implement what made X-Men so popular in the first place. They need to focus on highlighting the whole team rather than focusing on a few main characters treating the rest like supporting cast. Hopefully the black uniforms are absolutely done with this movie as well!

Taking into account the parallel performance of the two trilogies and Last Stand's numbers over X2, I predict XMA would do about $250m domestic and $550 international for a worldwide total of $800m.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Worst case senario the film underperforms DOFP, singer gets his x-men movies name tarnished.

Best case scenario it makes 800 mil and is better then X3 and origins.

The cast will be uneffected though either way, tye will move on to ready player one, sophie will move onto her next movie project ect ect

 

[Zarex]

Just saying and how is DS any different? They clearly went with a white woman to play an asian man. I think Cumberbatch playing him in general is visually whitewashing him a bit as well but that's for another thread.

Though some folks had hoped an Asian actor would be brought in to play Strange - Ditko had originally drawn him with Asian features - DS has really made only one whitewashing casting decision with The Ancient One. It's a problem, but there's quite a big difference between that and films like Gods of Egypt, 21, The Last Airbender and Exodus: Gods and Kings in which entire casts were "Caucasianized".

Let's hope that Wong - please don't be a manservant - is great in his role and Marvel continues to make progress on diversifying its heroes.

 

[Iceman]

Worst case senario the film underperforms DOFP, singer gets his x-men movies name tarnished.

Best cast scenario it makes 800 mil and is better then X3 and origins.

 

[Zarex]

The worst case scenario if Apocalypse severely under performs is that the X-Kids get abandoned back in the 1980s and FOX moves forward with Deadpool 2, New Mutants, X-Force and Gambit films set in the present day. Not exactly a disaster, imo.

 

[Gerontophobe]

X-Men has never flopped even with poor reviews.

What is does have to worry about is how this will hurt the next X-Men film if wom stays like this. X-Men has had too many ups and downs. One film's reception does hurt the other. Right when they grab their audience back it's not good to lose them again. People are gonna be even more conflicted with the franchise if this is somewhere in-between X3 and Origins.

No X-Men film has flopped but several (TLS, XMOW, FC) have struggled to generate meaningful return on investment for Fox. I agree that fluctuating movie quality makes it difficult to establish a trusted brand (like Marvel has).

Suicide Squad will not be fine, especially after the toxic reaction to BvS. DC brand right now is severely tarnished.

Doc Strange on the other hand will be coming off a critically and fan acclaimed success in CW, and has the unblemished Marvel Brand. It will kill at the box office, especially with that awesome cast.

I think the effect of BvS on SS is negligible, just like Deadpool has little effect on XMA. The social media numbers for SS have been fantastic (better than DP and GoTG, I believe) so as long as that movie is decent, it is going to do very well. I think it has potential to be a breakout blockbuster and maybe cross $300M domestically.

The effect of CW on DS will likewise be fairly small, as they share no characters in common. What will help DS is the Marvel brand, but that has been built up through more than just CW. I have some doubts about DS, as it is an original film property and has another (more anticipated) magical movie opening two weeks later, in Fantastic Beasts.

Just saying and how is DS any different? They clearly went with a white woman to play an asian man. I think Cumberbatch playing him in general is visually whitewashing him a bit as well but that's for another thread.

I'm sure the vast majority of the general audience will neither notice nor care. If one hasn't read the comics, the Ancient One doesn't have to be inherently Asian. In the case of Gods of Egypt, the entire cast obviously doesn't fit with the racial makeup of ancient Egypt. Also, that movie was critically panned with terrible WOM and no built-in brand. I don't think they are at all fair comparisons. I think it is sort of like Edge of Tomorrow when Cruise replaced the Japanese protagonist. Most didn't really care and the movie was still great.

 

[SAUspartan]

Seems like a lot of film people don't think the box office will be effected at all because of this. If that's the case everything will be fine.