Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[psylockolussus]

1) Same weekend as Alice (opened same weekend in USA, and playing at same holiday weekend in UK even though X-Men opened a week before. Two big films at same time = divided box office takings)

2) Trailers etc marketed more of Apocalypse and not the identifiable X-Men. I did see one trailer on TV with three character names in it, but we needed more of that. Rather than marketing it on Apocalypse and destruction, it should have been marketed on 'See the origins of the X-Men... Cyclops, Storm, Phoenix, Nightcrawler, Quicksilver, Beast, Mystique... and Wolverine*.' Names flashed on screen next to an image/moment of each character. I said months ago they should have done a names trailer.

3) Poor reviews almost certainly didn't help

4) Story needed to be a bit more dynamic

* I'm also tempted to wonder whether they might have added more Wolverine, with him in iconic costume. Somehow developing that Alkali Lake sequence and having him accompany them on the jet, because seeing him just run off into the woods was a bit of an anticlimax. I'm not a fan of Wolverine's overdominance of this franchise. But two people separately asked me if Wolverine was in this movie, so we can't underestimate his draw.

Even in markets like UK, Australia, Brazil, Russia, France.... the opening weekend of Apocalypse is lower and it didn't compete with Alice 2 in those countries. And X3/Origins had bad reviews and yet it opened bigger than this one and ticket prices back in the day were much lower and didn't have 3D.

 

[X-Maniac]

Points to note from the Deadline article:

On social, Relish Mix reports that the buzz for Apocalypse is “mildly positive with a fair share of skepticism. While some see Apocalypse as a popcorn film to rival Captain America: Civil War, others definitely are sharing their franchise fatigue.”

Apocalypse demos were similar to Days of Future Past: 60% males showed up with 58% over 25. Sixty-one percent of those watching X-Men did so because they love the property, while 28% came out for the actors and 24% came out to watch Jennifer Lawrence and Olivia Munn. Hugh Jackman was a bigger draw on Days of Future Past at 32%. The under 18 demo who repped 22% of the crowd loved Apocalypse the most with an A.

 

[Sithborg]

But it is doing better than DOFP in other markets.

 

[GuestStar2004]

And gimmicks don't work twice, but you of course will ignore this.

Interestingly the first avengers made the most bank out of every MCU movie so far, the 2nd fell short of what the first made and civil war made even less, they still made alot of money but nothing has quite beaten the first avengers so far.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Adjusted for inflation, as overseas markets have fallen, the first weekend in its OS markets was better for Apocalypse then DoFP, barely. So it is doing the same OS, at least in the majority of markets.

 

[Sithborg]

Adjusted for inflation, as overseas markets have fallen, the first weekend in its OS markets was better for Apocalypse then DoFP, barely. So it is doing the same OS, at least in the majority of markets.

Much like everything with this movie, it is mixed.

 

[psylockolussus]

But it is doing better than DOFP in other markets.

Yes but still when it comes DOFP/Apocalypse's biggest international markets which are UK, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Germany, France.... there's no growth.

 

[X-Maniac]

Even in markets like UK, Australia, Brazil, Russia, France.... the opening weekend of Apocalypse is lower and it didn't compete with Alice 2 in those countries. And X3/Origins had bad reviews and yet it opened bigger than this one and ticket prices back in the day were much lower and didn't have 3D.

But Alice is competing with X-Men on this holiday weekend, even if it opened in the UK a week before. In the USA it's Memorial Day Weekend, here in the UK it's Spring Bank Holiday Weekend, still a long weekend.

A long weekend is when families might decide to go to the cinema and find a film to watch. Especially if the weather isn't so good. Give them one blockbuster and they'll choose that one, give them more choice and the box office tickets can get pulled in different directions.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Yeah it only became the first X-Men movie to hit $200 million in North America since X3 and the first X-Men movie to hit $500/600/700 million worldwide and the first X-Men film to outgross X3. Yeah let the facts go!

This denial of original cast helped get people in theaters for DOFP and helped
excite people for DOFP is getting ridculas.

Along with Hugh jackman, patrick stewart Ian Mckellen and ellen page did a lot of promation for DOFP.More than Lawrence or Nicholas Hoult.along with James Mcavoy and Michael fassbender jackman,Stewart,Mckellen,and page did more
publicacy.Shawn Ashmore did some publicacy too.

DOFP was first X-men related film since last stand to get in the 200 Million
range domesticly.Last stand did it on back of X2.Last stand isn't an universal loved film.at best it's seen as a mixed film.Apocalypse doesn't have those
to bring In GA into theaters like last stand did.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

interestingly the first avengers made the most bank out of every MCU movie so far, the 2nd didn't make quite as much as civil war made less, they still made alot but nothing has quite beaten the first avengers

That is the power of novelty. Many would say "The Empire Strikes Back" is better then "Star Wars". It made much less. More money then pretty much anything else, but much less then the first film.

VIII, even if it is widely considered better then TFA, won't get close to its box office.

 

[psylockolussus]

This denial of original cast helped get people in theaters for DOFP and helped
excite people for DOFP is getting ridculas.

Along with Hugh jackman, patrick stewart Ian Mckellen and ellen page did a lot of promation for DOFP.More than Lawrence or Nicholas Hoult.along with James Mcavoy and Michael fassbender jackman,Stewart,Mckellen,and page did more
publicacy.Shawn Ashmore did some publicacy too.

DOFP was first X-men related film since last stand to get in the 200 Million
range domesticly.Last stand did it on back of X2.Last stand isn't an universal loved film.at best it's seen as a mixed film.Apocalypse doesn't have those
to bring In GA into theaters like last stand did.

You know what some people aren't gonna give them credit so lets just move on, there's always an excuse.

Then with Apocalypse, not outgrossing origins in North America. IDK.... that would be terrible if thats the case. We'll see if the 2nd weekend drop is big!

 

[Sithborg]

This denial of original cast helped get people in theaters for DOFP and helped
excite people for DOFP is getting ridculas.

Along with Hugh jackman, patrick stewart Ian Mckellen and ellen page did a lot of promation for DOFP.More than Lawrence or Nicholas Hoult.along with James Mcavoy and Michael fassbender jackman,Stewart,Mckellen,and page did more
publicacy.Shawn Ashmore did some publicacy too.

DOFP was first X-men related film since last stand to get in the 200 Million
range domesticly.Last stand did it on back of X2.Last stand isn't an universal loved film.at best it's seen as a mixed film.Apocalypse doesn't have those
to bring In GA into theaters like last stand did.

What people are dismissing is that doing a new movie with the OT would've done better than what Apocalypse is doing now.

 

[psylockolussus]

Yes it would have. More familiar faces.

But Alice is competing with X-Men on this holiday weekend, even if it opened in the UK a week before. In the USA it's Memorial Day Weekend, here in the UK it's Spring Bank Holiday Weekend, still a long weekend.

A long weekend is when families might decide to go to the cinema and find a film to watch. Especially if the weather isn't so good. Give them one blockbuster and they'll choose that one, give them more choice and the box office tickets can get pulled in different directions.

Of course its a factor which I already said a long time ago. But even if it didn't have Alice as a competition, I don't think it would have suddenly get a 20 million boost for the 4-day weekend.

 

[marvelrobbins]

What people are dismissing is that doing a new movie with the OT would've done better than what Apocalypse is doing now.

It may have.even if jackman alone had been in Apocalypse for more than a cameo.like say wolverine as a horseman instead of storm,and storm would
have been at school already or wolverine would have gone with them after taking care of soldiers.

Apocalypse was always destined to do less than DOFP.But it could have done
better than it is doing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yes it would have. More familiar faces.

Based on what? Again, The Wolverine franchise exist. We know a solo can do big money. Deadpool proved it. If the cast was that desirable, if Wolverine is, explain he box office returns for those movies?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It may have.even if jackman alone had been in Apocalypse for more than a cameo.like say wolverine as a horseman instead of storm,and storm would
have been at school already or wolverine would have gone with them after taking care of soldiers.

Apocalypse was always destined to do less than DOFP.But it could have done
better than it is doing.

Which is clearly down to the quality.

 

[2kt09]

The refutation to OT doing better is Deadpool, which has a completely different Colossus and a new to this franchise X-man.

 

[Tilapia]

What people are dismissing is that doing a new movie with the OT would've done better than what Apocalypse is doing now.

Also would have costed a hella a lot more money to pay them. Who would have been the Horseman? I don't think McKellan would have wanted a huge role again. I don't see Halle Berry as a Horseman either. Would have been ridiculous.

A bunch of 40-50 year old actors (and 70 year olds) in an action movie? That last battle would have to be completely CGI and stunt work. Think Grammer would have done any wire work with Beast at his age?

People, come back to reality.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

If the lower estimates are correct, DoFP will have earned more its opening weekend than Looking Glass and Apocalypse combined. You can't really blame the underperformance on Alice 2.

 

[marvelrobbins]

The refutation to OT doing better is Deadpool, which has a completely different Colossus and a new to this franchise X-man.

using deadpool with is r rated comedy and turns X-men including Colossus into
a Joke?

So you are advocating X-men franchise turn into one big comedy where everyone but deadpool is a joke?

 

[ciscostudent561]

People, come back to reality.

 

[Sithborg]

using deadpool with is r rated comedy and turns X-men including Colossus into
a Joke?

So you are advocating X-men franchise turn into one big comedy where everyone but deadpool is a joke?

Isn't it the same logic you are using to advocate the return of the OT? Deadpool did better than the OT cast, so it makes more sense to use Deadpool than the OT cast.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Isn't it the same logic you are using to advocate the return of the OT? Deadpool did better than the OT cast, so it makes more sense to use Deadpool than the OT cast.

Shhh, you are making too much sense.

 

[GuestStar2004]

If the lower estimates are correct, DoFP will have earned more its opening weekend than Looking Glass and Apocalypse combined. You can't really blame the underperformance on Alice 2.

DOFP certainly would have had the advantage reviews wise over alice 2, alot more yay and less nay.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Isn't it the same logic you are using to advocate the return of the OT? Deadpool did better than the OT cast, so it makes more sense to use Deadpool than the OT cast.

I have long maintained original cast isn't coming back.even if fox could
convince Jackman to return post wolverine solo film he would be put with
apoclaypse cast In new X-men film.

I want people to stop tryiny to deny original cast was part of reason for
DOFP success.

Inless jackman changes his mind solo wolverine film will be last time any
of original cast is used.and even then they could want to put jackman with younger cast if they can change his mind.

Others want X-men franchise to be all about deadpool.which is far worse than all the moaning about wolverine.at least wolverine was a real X-man and their most popular member.