Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]515591[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]515267[/split]

 

[Sithborg]

Domestic: $142,247,836 29.3%
+ Foreign: $343,816,310 70.7%
--------------------------------------
= Worldwide: $486,064,146

How much more will it make domestically ? And what will be the final worldwide collection ?

Box Office Mojo states the budget at 178 mil. so if we go by conventional method of doubling the production budget plus marketing (about 100 mil. more), it has already made back it's money.

$160 domestic sounds about right. I think it can pass $400 international. It has been a solid performer in China.

 

[superweirdo87]

Low 500s seems much more likely. The movie collapsed overseas outside of China, and 160 domestic is probably not attainable.

 

[YoungBlood]

So lets recap everything that has happen so far:

1. We're still whining about Apocalypse looks? Let it go because even if it was a more comic accurate version, it still wouldn't help the story and the character would still be one dimensional.

2. That "prototype Apocalyspe" gif that a certain whiny entitled fan has posted would still not fit in the movie universe, he would look so out of place that it would feel like he came off Batman and Robin.

3. Yes, Civil War did well, but considering how great the reviews were, you would think it would do a little bit better. I mean, for the "so-called pinnacle of superhero cinema" that was hyped up to the heavens by critics and fans ,you would think that this film should be having the same box office as Furious 7, Jurassic World, or Ultron (in which there were Rumors that Disney called its box office a failure because it didn't pass Avengers 1 and it was highly anticipated as well), especially since they added Black Panther and Spider-Man for the royal rumble. The way things are looking, it might not even pass Iron Man 3 (domestically maybe, don't know about worldwide) which do make me think that what if infinity war won't break Avengers records.

4. I really wonder how much Fox was expecting to make for Apocalyspe because why haven't anything came out about it. People were quick to spread info about WB's reaction to BVS reception, same with Sony for TASM2.

 

[ApophènX]

The truth is all this is really subjective and there for not the truth.

 

[Zarex]

3. Yes, Civil War did well, but considering how great the reviews were, you would think it would do a little bit better. I mean, for the "so-called pinnacle of superhero cinema" that was hyped up to the heavens by critics and fans ,you would think that this film should be having the same box office as Furious 7, Jurassic World, or Ultron (in which there were Rumors that Disney called its box office a failure because it didn't pass Avengers 1 and it was highly anticipated as well), especially since they added Black Panther and Spider-Man for the royal rumble. The way things are looking, it might not even pass Iron Man 3 (domestically maybe, don't know about worldwide) which do make me think that what if infinity war won't break Avengers records.

With three big budget "Superhero vs. Superhero" movies coming out within a few months time there was bound to be market cannibalism. My guess Marvel is happy to come out of the competition the clear winner while masterfully setting up Spider-Man and Black Panther solo features.

Infinity War very likely has the Guardians teaming up with the Avengers. If the GOTG sequel is as well received as the first I could see it challenging the first Avengers film WW.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The first Avengers was lightning in a bottle. The first major superhero teamup film. That can't be duplicated. It was also going to be extremely tough to duplicate those numbers, and the same is true for other franchises in the same situation (Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Avatar, etc.). The same was true for DOFP, which had Hugh Jackman, Patrick Stewart, and company on screen together with the FC cast.

If it is announced that Infinity War Part 2 is going to be the last film for the original Avengers cast, in which case it might have a shot, no future Marvel film is going to outgross Avengers until inflation catches up to it.

 

[def28]

3. Yes, Civil War did well, but considering how great the reviews were, you would think it would do a little bit better. I mean, for the "so-called pinnacle of superhero cinema" that was hyped up to the heavens by critics and fans ,you would think that this film should be having the same box office as Furious 7, Jurassic World, or Ultron (in which there were Rumors that Disney called its box office a failure because it didn't pass Avengers 1 and it was highly anticipated as well), especially since they added Black Panther and Spider-Man for the royal rumble. The way things are looking, it might not even pass Iron Man 3 (domestically maybe, don't know about worldwide) which do make me think that what if infinity war won't break Avengers records.

It's gonna help BP's and Spidey's films make more money, not the other way around. Neither had Iron Man box office power or film credibility post ASM2 stepping into the MCU.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

The first Avengers was lightning in a bottle. The first major superhero teamup film. That can't be duplicated. It was also going to be extremely tough to duplicate those numbers, and the same is true for other franchises in the same situation (Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Avatar, etc.). The same was true for DOFP, which had Hugh Jackman, Patrick Stewart, and company on screen together with the FC cast.

If it is announced that Infinity War Part 2 is going to be the last film for the original Avengers cast, in which case it might have a shot, no future Marvel film is going to outgross Avengers until inflation catches up to it.

Exactly. As long as the studio continues to raise the bar on the films themselves, that's all we as fans can ask for. The rest is in the wind.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Exactly, As long as the studio continues to raise the bar on the films themselves, that's all we as fans can ask for. The rest is in the wind.

And Civil War was still well over a billion. When your peak is over $1.5 billion (over $600 million domestic) like The Avengers, you can afford the inevitable coming back to earth. Civil War did around as well Iron Man 3. I understand that there is an issue with poor exchange rates that is affecting the overseas gross of all the films this year. So it appears Marvel's big event films are settling around that $1.1-1.3 billion range. That's very good.

When the peak is $747 million, like DOFP, then that's a problem for these huge, expensive blockbusters. That means the 'standard' X-Men film could settle in the $500 million range like Apocalypse did. Maybe if it is great it does a little bit more or if it is bad it does a little bit less, but either way that would be a problem.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

That a certain whiny entitled fan

I'm not going anywhere so block me if I bother you so much. No matter where no matter when X-Men: Apocalypse you will defend.

 

[henzINNIT]

Thing is thats a proto type design, thats not designed on whoever plays him, aka oscar issac

and you think there wouldn't be complainers? course, even one would probably be you since its easy to say this is what you want since we didn't get it but if we had i am sure there would have been something you hated, after all there are plenty even now who say psylocke looked stupid in all her comic look.

This sculpt was designed on a cast of Oscar Isaac.

There would certainly be detractors, always is. They'd be a mocked minority though, because that design simply screams Apocalypse.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

This sculpt was designed on a cast of Oscar Isaac.

There would certainly be detractors, always is. They'd be a mocked minority though, because that design simply screams Apocalypse.

That's why I didn't even respond

 

[Sithborg]

Low 500s seems much more likely. The movie collapsed overseas outside of China, and 160 domestic is probably not attainable.

It is already well past $500. There is about $20 mil to be added for China so far this week, possibly for a weekly total of $23 mil. Add in about $15 for the remainder of its run in China, that would bring the foreign up to $380. I think it could squeak out another $20 mil from the remaining territories.

As for domestic, I don't think $18 mil is too much to expect out of the next 4-5 weeks.

 

[superweirdo87]

"When the peak is $747 million, like DOFP, then that's a problem for these huge, expensive blockbusters. That means the 'standard' X-Men film could settle in the $500 million range like Apocalypse did. Maybe if it is great it does a little bit more or if it is bad it does a little bit less, but either way that would be a problem.[/QUOTE]

That depends on the budget and cost. There is nothing that makes it inevitable that an X-Men movie cost as much as DOFP or even XMA. These movies do involve CGI and fantasy, but there might be creative and imaginative ways to work within constraints.

Deadline estimated that with a distribution fee of 40M, the studio that did Godzilla made a profit with a 529M WW gross off a 160M budget. (One caveat is that it made 200M domestic where studios get a bigger cut of ticket sales and the ancillary market is robust.)

I agree that DOFP was a high point in the franchise, and the "typical" X-Men movie does less. It may be the case that XMA is the low end of the standard X-Men movie range as opposed to what an X-Men movie would typically make. XMA had the worst reviews of any mainline X-Men movie on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic. Word of mouth was mixed. And the plot was generic without any meaningful arc for any character. A typical quality X-Men movie might do better than XMA.

 

[Sithborg]

Somewhat important to point out, but the $30 mil it did in Japan didn't really count for Legendary or WB. Pretty certain that went to Toho.

 

[daddydivine]

It is already well past $500. There is about $20 mil to be added for China so far this week, possibly for a weekly total of $23 mil. Add in about $15 for the remainder of its run in China, that would bring the foreign up to $380. I think it could squeak out another $20 mil from the remaining territories.

As for domestic, I don't think $18 mil is too much to expect out of the next 4-5 weeks.

I see your numbers... but they aren't really saying anything. Whats your baseline for the added 20 mil and 23 mil? The 486 mil from box office mojo?

 

[superweirdo87]

"1. We're still whining about Apocalypse looks? Let it go because even if it was a more comic accurate version, it still wouldn't help the story and the character would still be one dimensional."

^ This. Apocalypse looked awful and that was a big minus. But, characterization was a HUUUUGE issue.

"Yes, Civil War did well, but considering how great the reviews were, you would think it would do a little bit better. I mean, for the "so-called pinnacle of superhero cinema" that was hyped up to the heavens by critics and fans ,you would think that this film should be having the same box office as Furious 7, Jurassic World, or Ultron (in which there were Rumors that Disney called its box office a failure because it didn't pass Avengers 1 and it was highly anticipated as well), especially since they added Black Panther and Spider-Man for the royal rumble. The way things are looking, it might not even pass Iron Man 3 (domestically maybe, don't know about worldwide) which do make me think that what if infinity war won't break Avengers records."

The numbers are so strong, though. I think it's just that Marvel spoils people.

"I really wonder how much Fox was expecting to make for Apocalyspe because why haven't anything came out about it. People were quick to spread info about WB's reaction to BVS reception, same with Sony for TASM2."

Those movies had sequels and spinoffs on a slate already. Fox is probably trying to figure stuff out. It probably does not want media attention. And the media is focused on the movies coming out each weekend.

I think XMA fell below what Fox expected. But, according to Deadline, they knew they were coming off a high from DOFP and thought the reviews posed a challenge.

 

[superweirdo87]

Somewhat important to point out, but the $30 mil it did in Japan didn't really count for Legendary or WB. Pretty certain that went to Toho.

Right, but as a general model for how business might look for the XMen going forward.

 

[Sithborg]

I see your numbers... but they aren't really saying anything. Whats your baseline for the added 20 mil and 23 mil? The 486 mil from box office mojo?

I compared the mojo China numbers with a daily total someone was running on the box office theory forums. It is around $112 after Sat in China, compared to the $95 on mojo.

 

[superweirdo87]

145m this weekend
1.7 M next week (146.7)
2M next weekend (148.7)
4.8 remaining 153.5M total
-----------------------------------------------------------
Foreign box office was 339.6 by the end of last weekend according to BOM. With 17M from China for the rest of its run, you get to 356.6. 6.1 from Japan gets you to 362.7. 7-8 from other territories and you wind up with 369.7-370.7.

Add in 151-155 domestic and you are at 520-530. I believe the non-China foreign numbers remaining could be even lower than 7-8M left.

 

[JEM]

If i am not wrong, OS total was 286M (june 5) and 342M (june 12) so 56M weekly.
So, we will see the drop this week. 28M would be normal.

 

[superweirdo87]

But, previously, there were debuts to raise box office. Next one is in August in Japan.

 

[Sithborg]

$28 shouldn't be too hard. China will be bringing in almost $20 this week.