Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[Stark Bauer]

I am hoping this becomes Thor's 'Winter Soldier'.

My predictions:
OW: $110 million
Domestic: $270 million
International: $500 million
Worldwide: $770 million

As a reference point before making your prediction:

Thor: $449.3 million worldwide ($181M Domestic, $268M International, OW $65.7M)

Thor: TDW: $644.6 million worldwide (206.4M Dometic, $438.2M International), OW $85.7M

 

[warriorking]

I would be happy if they at least gave Thor a 2 Hour movie...
As for Box office Not touching that one...

 

[samsnee]

Unless reviews are amazing, I'm putting $700 at the ceiling. This franchise just doesn't know what it wants to be. Either a space fantasy, or fish out of water story, or now a buddy road trip movie with Hulk.

 

[MadVillainy]

Unless reviews are amazing, I'm putting $700 at the ceiling. This franchise just doesn't know what it wants to be. Either a space fantasy, or fish out of water story, or now a buddy road trip movie with Hulk.

yeah that sounds about right.

 

[jaqua99]

edit

 

[☆OldGrey-Man☆]

Im with Daniel Alter on this one. This will be do $1B. Phase 3 Marvel is a different beast and they seem to know what theyre doing.

 

[All-Father]

I can see it making around 700M, but not much more. There's not enough interest in this franchise.

 

[third3ye]

With the Hulk premium, I can't see this doing more than $800m, so gonna guess between $700-$800m, with strong reviews putting this on the higher end of that range.

 

[GR8GODZILLAGOD]

$700-ish million will probably be the ceiling.

 

[RoryTate]

Thor: Ragnarok will be coming off of a weak second film, and will need to have better initial reviews and buzz to make many feel comfortable seeing it on the opening weekend or in theaters. It's hard to say what will happen, but I think the BO performance will be very susceptible to a poor RT score or similar. If reviews are positive, then the Phase 3 ceiling is a bit higher for Marvel movies it seems. I think if they make and market it similar to GOTG (and make a better overall movie) then it could possibly cross 800 million. If not and reviews are mixed, then it will probably repeat TDW numbers.

 

[Chesterfield]

$750 Million is the ceiling. Anything more is a fantasy.

 

[ALittlePush]

Thor: Ragnarok will be coming off of a weak second film, and will need to have better initial reviews and buzz to make many feel comfortable seeing it on the opening weekend or in theaters. It's hard to say what will happen, but I think the BO performance will be very susceptible to a poor RT score or similar. If reviews are positive, then the Phase 3 ceiling is a bit higher for Marvel movies it seems. I think if they make and market it similar to GOTG (and make a better overall movie) then it could possibly cross 800 million. If not and reviews are mixed, then it will probably repeat TDW numbers.

I think this film could do very well. It's got a great cast with several well known names. If they market it right, that will get a lot of interest. A great trailer can do wonders.

 

[RoryTate]

I think this film could do very well. It's got a great cast with several well known names. If they market it right, that will get a lot of interest. A great trailer can do wonders.

A poor initial buzz/reception though will immediately remind everyone of TDW (the worst received film of the MCU so far, though it's at least fresh on RT). I think the lesson of BvS needs to be taken to heart here -- after a poorly received MoS the lack of success for its sequel shows how much WOM and critical reception can harm a film's BO take, even when it had many recognizable names, very popular superheros, and a large-scale and frantic marketing campaign. Thor won't be in as big of a hole as BvS out of the gate, and it does have the implied quality of the Marvel brand to lean on, but in the end, I really think it needs to be first and foremost a good movie (plot, characters, coherent story, and a well done villain).

 

[ALittlePush]

A poor initial buzz/reception though will immediately remind everyone of TDW (the worst received film of the MCU so far, though it's at least fresh on RT). I think the lesson of BvS needs to be taken to heart here -- after a poorly received MoS the lack of success for its sequel shows how much WOM and critical reception can harm a film's BO take, even when it had many recognizable names, very popular superheros, and a large-scale and frantic marketing campaign. Thor won't be in as big of a hole as BvS out of the gate, and it does have the implied quality of the Marvel brand to lean on, but in the end, I really think it needs to be first and foremost a good movie (plot, characters, coherent story, and a well done villain).

Very true.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

$1 billion.

 

[Stark Bauer]

It's too bad they couldn't use RDJ lol

But Goldblum, Blanchett, Urban, and Thompson will do.

 

[Drizzle]

Hulk alone will probably boost this Ragnarok's box office past any Thor movie before it, but I doubt it'll come close to Avengers, IM or Civil War numbers.

 

[Baba3231]

More than JL. There. I said it.

 

[RoryTate]

The close release to JL is definitely going to affect the BO numbers for this movie, and I can't see it as being a positive. If JL is awful (which is the most likely outcome considering their track record), then the GA aren't going to be interested in seeing another CBM in such a short time. If it's good (or even mediocre), then the competition will eat into Thor: Ragnarok's profits, although it probably won't be as bad as if it sucks. I'm hoping for a decent JL movie that doesn't do too poorly, since that is probably the best case scenario for Thor: Ragnarok being as successful as it can be.

 

[metaphysician]

If JL is awful, people won't go to it, leaving them perfectly free to go to Thor 3 instead.

Anyway, I think it will largely depend on quality. If Thor 3 reviews a lot better than Thor 2, it will gross a lot more, especially with the Hulk. I would say that hitting a billion is the absolute best case scenario; its not going to compete with Civil War or the Avengers movies, even with strong reviews. 700-800 seems more likely, assuming fairly typical Marvel quality ( high 70s-low 80s RT ).

 

[Mjölnir]

Ragnarok comes out 2-3 weeks (depending on location) before JL so if the latter is awful it won't affect Ragnarok negatively.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

I'm not seeing a lot of excitement for JL these days. But it doesn't matter. It's still a film WB is going to be pushing heavily. And Marvel has to be confident in Ragnarok to release only weeks before. That to me is a good sign.

 

[RoryTate]

Ragnarok comes out 2-3 weeks (depending on location) before JL so if the latter is awful it won't affect Ragnarok negatively.

You're right. There are too many dates floating around, but it looks like officially it's November 3 for Thor: Ragnarok, and November 17 for Justice League Part 1. Those appear to be the US release dates from IMDB at least. Marvel seems to release the Thor films first in overseas markets (Europe/Asia) though, since they do relatively better there, so there may be a bit of variation. Who's to say what they'll do with this one though?

 

[Mjölnir]

You're right. There are too many dates floating around, but it looks like officially it's November 3 for Thor: Ragnarok, and November 17 for Justice League Part 1. Those appear to be the US release dates from IMDB at least. Marvel seems to release the Thor films first in overseas markets (Europe/Asia) though, since they do relatively better there, so there may be a bit of variation. Who's to say what they'll do with this one though?

Ragnarok does come out a week earlier over here, those dates are already set. JL will most likely be a global release again. Probably set as well but I haven't looked it up.

 

[third3ye]

Also going with $750m as ceiling, probably will be closer to $700m. JL is opening 2 weeks later, that'll have a noticeable affect for sure as Thor will lose a bunch of screens regardless of JL's reviews. If JL does global day and date like BvS, that gives Thor an extra week for OS territories, that could be a big help.