Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[KangConquers]

I think off of great reviews, this does more than any Iron Man free MCU movie up to this point.

I'm going off of an assumed 80% Tomato Meter, which seems to be the MCU's average:

OW: $110 M (Having Thor team up with another A-List hero should give the film a roughly 30-35% OW boost.)
Domestic: $275 M (Even though I'm sure the movie will be drizzling ****s, Justice League will steal screens and eyeballs from Thor.)
Foreign: $575 M (The growth of the MCU into a guaranteed $100 M + brand in China will boost the film an otherwise identical performance to Thor: TDW from $438 M foreign, to roughly $500 M. Superior reviews and the presence of the Hulk could add an additional 25% on top of that, but being so close to Justice League, I'm tempering that expectation.)
Worldwide: $850 M.

 

[writer0327]

I think it's high time to dust off this thread.

I don't think there's any question Thor: Ragnarok cracks the $700M mark. That seems to be the norm for CBMs nowadays, especially if the release date is just right (and it is). Thor's trailer and the level of buzz that it create make me believe, however, this film could surpass $800M and maybe even $900M if JL isn't any good.

 

[Wildcard]

I think even if JL is good or great, this could still hit that $900 million mark.

 

[xugik]

$450 mil dom
$750 mil os
$1.2 bil ww

 

[HammerDown]

THOR RAGNAROK

Opening Weekend - 120M
Domestic - 300M
Foreign - 600M
Worldwide = 900M

 

[AvengerPA]

This movie will finish in between Doctor Strange and Captain America: Winter Soldier domestically and internationally. $250 million domestic and $700 million worldwide.

 

[Lilbaz]

I'll say $850m (depending on how good the reviews are and how good gotg is).

 

[LucDisfilm19]

$1 billion or more now that the trailer for Thor 3 is Disney's most viewed trailer in 24 hours with 136 million views.

 

[DarthAlani]

Trailer views don't mean ****. It did almost 200 million in trailer views. It's not getting close to 1 billion.

 

[Zarex]

It definitely has a puncher's chance for $1 billion. I like it's odds better than JL.

 

[metaphysician]

Trailers views don't intrinsically say much about final box office, but they do say at least something about prior interest levels. In this case, I am perfectly comfortable saying that the ridiculously high trailer view levels do at least suggest that people aren't ignoring it because of Thor 2.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Trailers views don't intrinsically say much about final box office, but they do say at least something about prior interest levels. In this case, I am perfectly comfortable saying that the ridiculously high trailer view levels do at least suggest that people aren't ignoring it because of Thor 2.

It might not effect total BO cume, but I'm pretty certain it's significant to opening weekend.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

It will end it's box office run at 669 million WW.

 

[HammerDown]

It will end it's box office run at 669 million WW.

No way. Only 669M!? That's too low.

Thor: TDW was released on the 8th of November 2013 and made 644M WW.
Hunger Games: CF was released on the 22nd of November 2013 and made 865M WW. (14 days later)

Thor: TDW wasn't well received and faced tuff competition from the very well received Hunger Games - Catching Fire. Thor: TDW still made 644M WW. This Hunger Games got a rating of 89% on rotten tomatoes and had a opening weekend of 158M!

Thor Ragnarok is released on the 3rd of November 2017.
Justice League is released on the 17th of November 2017. (14 days later)

So exactly the same scenario as before. Pretty much the same competition.
BvS for example did 873M WW and had a OW of 166M. Let's see if the public/critics are ready to wash the bad taste BvS left in their mouths. I feel that people are gonna be much more sceptic this time around and with Zack Snyder we can expect more of the same.

On the other hand i feel that people are ready/excited for a new Thor. A new director with a new and fresh vision. A fun but also high stakes and meaningful movie with what looks like a great villain... a trailer that has generated a lot of hype. It already looks so much better than the previous ones and people are really into it.

 

[Milk Tray Guy]

Towards $800m but I don't see it passing that.

 

[Wildcard]

It will end it's box office run at 669 million WW.

I think that's a little too low. I can see this definitely hitting the $700-$800 million worldwide. I don't know about it hitting a billion, but it should definitely make significantly more than TDW.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I think it'll get to around $800 million, maybe more if reviews are good.

 

[InCali]

Trailer views don't mean ****. It did almost 200 million in trailer views. It's not getting close to 1 billion.

They mean something, but it's just one factor. If the movie is really good, I could see it going in the 800-900M range. It would have to be spectacular to go above that IMO and would probably mean disaster for JL. I think TR and JL will do fine, but WW has to be fairly good at the worst to help. I could see JL and TR being in the same BO orbit.

 

[Wildcard]

I think it'll get to around $800 million, maybe more if reviews are good.

Yeah, if the reviews and word of mouth are good, I could see this getting close to or past $900 million, even.

 

[HammerDown]

Talking about reviews and word of mouth and how that always impacts the box office numbers... Here is a list of some of the highest rated Marvel movies by Rotten Tomatoes.

1. Iron Man - 94% fresh
2. Avengers - 92%
3. Guardians of the Galaxy - 91%
4. Doctor Strange - 90%
5. Captain America: CW - 90%
6. Captain America: TWS - 89%

I think Thor Ragnarok is gonna be really well received by critics and will end up in this Top 6. I feel that this movie is gonna be the first awesome Thor movie and the one that will "reinvent/revitalize" the franchise. Taika Waititi's movies are usually very well received because of their fun/warm hearted and smart nature.

Hunt for the Wilderpeople - 97%
What We Do In The Shadows - 96%

 

[JtheDreamer]

It will end it's box office run at 669 million WW.

 

[InCali]

It will end it's box office run at 669 million WW.

I take it you think that's way too high?

EDIT: It's going to improve by a whole 25M WW over TDW from 4 years ago? Marvel's gotta be happy about that.....

 

[JtheDreamer]

I take it you think that's way too high?

EDIT: It's going to improve by a whole 25M WW over TDW from 4 years ago? Marvel's gotta be happy about that.....

Hahaha.

Put it this way, Ragnarok would have to puke and sh- all over itself to land Dark World numbers - especially with the opening bump it's likely going to track for after that homerun shot teaser trailer. The kind of exposure and interest it generated is something this solo franchise has NEVER seen until now.

 

[InCali]

Hahaha.

Put it this way, Ragnarok would have to puke and sh- all over itself to land Dark World numbers - especially with the opening bump it's likely going to track for after that homerun shot teaser trailer. The kind of exposure and interest it generated is something this solo franchise has NEVER seen until now.

Totally agree. When I was very young, I was fascinated by mythological tales and my favorite was Norse mythology....and my favorite character was Thor. So, guess who my favorite comic book character was.....well, Thor AND Doctor Strange, but still.....I'm stoked because I think I'm going to see a killer Thor movie.

IMO, Thor is one of those characters that transcends comics. Hercules (Herakles) is another, but came in a little bit later in comic books and didn't really take hold in the same way Thor did.

I don't want to give anyone any ideas, but why is Thor property of anyone? He's a historical character, but I guess if anyone could use him, they would.

 

[Zarex]

I don't want to give anyone any ideas, but why is Thor property of anyone? He's a historical character, but I guess if anyone could use him, they would.

Characters created for the comics like the Warriors Three and Beta Ray Bill are the property of Marvel. But anyone can use the Norse gods. The creators of the Sharknado films put out an Almighty Thor DTV mockbuster back when the original MCU film was released. And Loki is a character in the STARZ series American Gods.