Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

What Will Be Thor: Ragnarok's Total Box Office Worldwide?

  • Over $1 Billion

  • $900 million to $1 Billion

  • $800 to $900 million

  • $700 to 800 million

  • $600 to 700 million

  • $500 to 600 million

  • $400 to 500 million

  • > (Less Than) $400 million

  • Over $1 Billion

  • $900 million to $1 Billion

  • $800 to $900 million

  • $700 to 800 million

  • $600 to 700 million

  • $500 to 600 million

  • $400 to 500 million

  • > (Less Than) $400 million

Results are only viewable after voting.
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val0706 said:
That's actually a pretty good point...

I thought it gets publicly visible or something?

Guess I am wrong.
Click to expand...

I can't see yours so no. :yay:
 
I think Thor Ragnarok will gross over 500M overseas. OS, Thor: TDW did 438M.
The OW of half of the markets for TR registered a 34% improvement from TDW numbers.

I am pretty much sure TR will outperform TDW in pretty much every single market. Add to that a much better word of mouth which i think will also give it legs and benefit in the long run.

So there is 62M to be made in order to cross that 500M mark. One country that already looks like is going to contribute a lot is South Korea, it will end up doing 15 to 20M more that what TDW did. And then you have China which without a doubt will increase a lot in comparison to what TDW did over there... 55M. The last 3 Marvel moves grossed over 100M in that market and i expect Thor Ragnarok to do something similar.

So basically just in these 2 countries it would do enough to reach that 500M.
 
Here's how I'm seeing it

Vol 2 increased 8.4% from GOTG (excluding China) with a weak ER. OS-China for TDW is 383 million so giving Ragnarok a similar increase will get it to 415.3 million. Ragnarok will probably end up with (99-105) million in China. The OS total becomes [415.3+102] - 517.3 million. That's where I see this one landing.
 
HammerDown said:
I think Thor Ragnarok will gross over 500M overseas. OS, Thor: TDW did 438M.
The OW of half of the markets for TR registered a 34% improvement from TDW numbers.
Click to expand...
But that 34% improvement is at current exchange rates, which means you can't use the $438M number. At current exchange rates that would be closer to $360M.

I agree that $500M+ seems possible with current numbers, but I'm going to wait to see how it fares next weekend first. GotG2 did $106M on its first OS weekend, and $126M on its 2nd(total was $285M at that point and it still had Japan left). Ragnarok narrowly beat GotG2's first weekend. It'll be interesting to see if it can beat its 2nd weekend as well.
 
I really don't delve into the hole exchange rates situation because that will just confuse me even more. :woot:
 
HammerDown said:
I really don't delve into the hole exchange rates situation because that will just confuse me even more. :woot:
Click to expand...

It makes all the difference though unfortunately. If the dollar collapsed then suddenly Catwoman and Punisher War Zone would be making a billion dollars overseas lol.
 
HammerDown said:
I really don't delve into the hole exchange rates situation because that will just confuse me even more. :woot:
Click to expand...
Haha fair enough. Probably easier to compare to GotG2 or DS's numbers then, since, unlike TDW, they had similar exchange rates.

Ragnarok basically has to increase a little over 20% over TDW overall in local currencies just to match TDW's $438M. Since it's 36.5%(more than ~20%) ahead atm, it looks to achieve that in its current set of markets. Examples of some of the markets where it looks like it won't match TDW in USD though would be France, Philippines, Italy, Singapore and probably Russia(where is could beat TDW by over 1.5 times in local currency and still finish millions below it in USD). It also has to improve by about 50% over TDW in mexico to match it in USD.

So yeah, exchange rates make comparisons to TDW trickier, especially since sources like deadline only mention improvements at current exchange rates. Like I said, GotG2 and DS will be the easier comparisons to use because of this.
 
Last edited:
Today starts the remaining roll out for the WW release to the movie.

31st October - Germany
 
The pre-sales seem indicate a lower domestic OW number but maybe the movie will do great walk-up business. Plus the great reviews, outstanding performance in the social media metrics and huge pre-release hype all seem to point to a bigger OW. Plus the good WoM will also help to improve the internal multiplier. I'm seeing (117-120) for the domestic OW atm. Which will be a great result. A 42% increase from TDW's OW is huge and a big victory for Thor.
 
Walk up business is a huge factor in a movie's box office, that's why I don't really care for pre sale stats.
 
BigThor said:
Walk up business is a huge factor in a movie's box office, that's why I don't really care for pre sale stats.
Click to expand...

Pre-sales are usually always on point tho. Especially when it comes to CBMs. There will be outliers like Deadpool but that's one miss among a sea of hits.
 
HammerDown said:
Today starts the remaining roll out for the WW release to the movie.

31st October - Germany
Click to expand...

I watch it in an hour :ilv:
Thor works in Germany very good in compare with Captain America
 
Germany usually likes comedy movies so Ragnarok should be right up their alley. Should do very well over there.
 
iEquinox said:
Haha fair enough. Probably easier to compare to GotG2 or DS's numbers then, since, unlike TDW, they had similar exchange rates.

Ragnarok basically has to increase a little over 20% over TDW overall in local currencies just to match TDW's $438M. Since it's 36.5%(more than ~20%) ahead atm, it looks to achieve that in its current set of markets. Examples of some of the markets where it looks like it won't match TDW in USD though would be France, Philippines, Italy, Singapore and probably Russia(where is could beat TDW by over 1.5 times in local currency and still finish millions below it in USD). It also has to improve by about 50% over TDW in mexico to match it in USD.

So yeah, exchange rates make comparisons to TDW trickier, especially since sources like deadline only mention improvements at current exchange rates. Like I said, GotG2 and DS will be the easier comparisons to use because of this.
Click to expand...

You also then have to look at inflation. Maybe increase in population? A million things.

If this film makes over $750m (which it probably will) it will be considered a success.
 
Not too long till that US opening weekend!
 
When all is said and done, it would be interesting to see what it would have done at the former exchange rates. Not entirely accurate, but probably gives a better idea in a head to head comparison.
 
Lilbaz said:
You also then have to look at inflation. Maybe increase in population? A million things.
Click to expand...
The effect of those "million things" combined is nowhere near as big as the effect of the change in exchange rates over the last few years.

Comparing 2 movies released less than 5 years apart without taking inflation into account would give a pretty good idea of their relative performance in that market. Meanwhile comparing 2 movies released less than 5 years(or even less than 2 months) apart without taking exchange rates into account can skew the numbers massively to the point where you conclude Movie 1 made twice as much as Movie 2 in a certain market, while it's actually completely the other way around in local currency.

Inflation is pretty constant and follows a clear pattern. Exchange rates don't. You can get away with not looking at inflation, but you can't get away with not looking at exchange rates. Not when the difference is this big.
 
Have tickets for both my brother and I for the 7pm Thursday night showing...
Can't wait..:woot:
I think it will open at around 125 Million ...
 
warriorking said:
Have tickets for both my brother and I for the 7pm Thursday night showing...
Can't wait..:woot:
I think it will open at around 125 Million ...
Click to expand...
Nice. Yeh it opens on Thursday night basically. Very soon.
 
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