Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[BaelaTargaryen]

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Flexes His Box Office Muscles To $120M-$122M Opening – Early Sunday AM Update

 

[ironman_rick]

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Flexes His Box Office Muscles To $120M-$122M Opening – Early Sunday AM Update

holy cow......thats fricking huge.

 

[iEquinox]

OS total has been updated, estimated total after Sunday is $306,000,000.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel2017.htm

Nicely ahead of GotG2's $285M after it's 2nd OS weekend(but it did still have Japan left). If it follows GotG2's OS trajectory it would end with almost exactly $500M OS.

 

[iEquinox]

Official domestic Opening Weekend estimate is $121,005,000.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=marvel2017.htm

With that it would need a 2.48x multiplier to reach $300M. So $300M+ domestic is likely, putting it on target for $800M+ WW.

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...November 5, 2017...estimated

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $121,005,000 / $427,005,000*

I've included The Incredible Hulk since T:R is the closest thing we've gotten to a new Hulk film...

*even better! - thanks Equinox for pointing out that oversight - it is now corrected...

 

[iEquinox]

BO update...November 5, 2017...estimated

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $121,005,000 / $306,000,000

I've included The Incredible Hulk since T:R is the closest thing we've gotten to a new Hulk film...

Worldwide total is $427,005,000. $306M is the foreign total.

#ThorRagnarok grossed an estimated $151.4M internationally this weekend. International total is $306.0M, global total is $427.0M.

https://***********/BORReport/status/927206894241857536

International debuts for #ThorRagnarok this weekend included $55.6M in China, $10.8M in Mexico, $8.9M in Germany & $5.2M in India.

https://***********/BORReport/status/927207784445222913

 

[The Endless]

Great stuff. We're looking at 800 million at least.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Amazing!
It barely passed Thor 1's total worldwide, and the movie is just released. Just simply amazing!!

 

[Iceman]

Already $427m? Awesome!!

 

[iEquinox]

Great stuff. We're looking at 800 million at least.

The OS weekend of $151.4M is a good sign. The increase from last weekend's $109M is bigger than GotG2's increase. That means it can have bigger drops from its 2nd OS weekend than GotG2, and still reach $500M OS.

Since I didn't have the weekend number before, I defined "following GotG2's trajectory" as its current OS total of $306M being 61.6% of its final total, just like GotG2's $285M total after its 2nd OS weekend was 61.6% of its final total(without Japan). That would give a final OS total of $497M for Ragnarok

However, if it follows GotG2's 2nd OS weekend multiplier, it would end up with $520M OS instead. So the high weekend number means $500M OS is on the conservative side. $800M+ worldwide does seem very likely. TDW's domestic legs would get it to $290M domestic, and it clearly has better reception on its side, so hopefully Ragnarok can pass the $300M mark.

 

[First Avenger]

Thor opening bigger than Spider-Man. Jesus.

 

[iEquinox]

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ & Rolls To $427M WW, $306M Offshore With Record November China Start – International Box Office

Thor: Ragnarok has Hulk-smashed his way to $306M at the international box office, coming off of a sophomore overseas frame that added $151.4M, including a $55.6M debut in China — the biggest industry opening weekend ever for a November release. Combined with the domestic start this session, the worldwide cume on the god of thunder’s third outing is currently $427M.

The Taika Waititi-helmed refresh on the series, which, despite all the Hulk-ing and thundering, comes with a lighter touch, is playing 8% ahead of Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 and 28% above Doctor Strange. Those figures rep the same suite of markets and are at today’s exchange rates.

The Disney/Marvel threequel rocked up in new plays this frame including Germany, Russia, Mexico, China and Japan for a total 55 material offshore hubs, or 99.9% of the overseas footprint. The China debut is 8% ahead of GOTG2, 23% more nimble than Doctor Strange, and has bested the entire lifetime cume of Thor: The Dark World there.

The top plays so far are China ($55.6M), the UK ($27.2M), Korea ($25.8M), Brazil ($19.3M) and Australia ($15.5M).

Thor is looking muscular in holds — and is on track to get across $500M internationally with runway ahead before Justice League hits the world in a day-and-date release starting November 15.

http://deadline.com/2017/11/thor-ragnarok-china-weekend-results-international-box-office-1202202193/

So they're saying it's 28% ahead of Doctor Strange and 8% ahead of GotG2 in current markets. 1.08x GotG2's OS total is about $512M OS, while 1.28x Doctor Strange's OS total is $570M.

So if it has OS legs as good as Doctor Strange, it could end up quite a bit higher than $500M OS. Would be pretty crazy if Thor challenges Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Spider-Man: Homecoming at the worldwide box office, but if it shows some strong legs in the following weeks, it could actually happen.

EDIT: Gitesh Pandya (from boxofficeguru.com) seems to think so as well:

#ThorRagnarok beat $117M of #SpiderManHomecoming for #7 all-time opening wknd in #MCU. Global gross shd end up near $900M area.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/927208628871942144

 

[HammerDown]

Wow. Those are huge numbers.

Domestic = 121M
Foreign = 306M
Worldwide = 427M

 

[samsnee]

In one weekend, it’s made more than the first movie. No wonder every other studio wants what Marvel has.

 

[iEquinox]

In one weekend, it’s made more than the first movie. No wonder every other studio wants what Marvel has.

Almost. Just $22M to go before it passes the first Thor($449.3M WW).

 

[HammerDown]

Box Office Mojo

'Thor: Ragnarok' Delivers $121M Domestic Opening Along with Record China Debut

With an estimated $121 million, Disney and Marvel's Thor: Ragnarok delivered the seventh largest opening for a film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, topping the $117 million debut for Spider-Man: Homecoming earlier this year. On average, films in the MCU deliver 2.72x multipliers, which would put Ragnarok's domestic run over $330 million if it merely holds to the average, but we're expecting it to play a bit better thanks in large part to strong reviews and opening weekend audience reception.

To go along with the film's "A" CinemaScore, opening weekend audiences were 56% male vs. 44% female, and of the overall audience, 63% were over the age of 25. One sign Disney and Marvel has to enjoy, beyond the fact Ragnarok debuted with $35+ million more than Thor: The Dark World, is audience demos were closer to a 50/50 split than its predecessor, whose opening weekend audience was 62% male.

Internationally, in its second weekend the film is now playing in nearly the entire international marketplace as it debuted in Germany, Russia, Mexico, China and Japan and brought in an estimated $151.4 million for an overseas gross of $306 million since opening last weekend. Overall, this pushes the film's global cume to $427 million.

Among Thor's new markets this weekend, the estimated $55.6 million opening in China is the largest ever for a November release as is the film's estimated $5.2 million debut in India. Additional openings saw an estimated $10.8 million in Mexico, $8.9 million (including previews) in Germany, $3.5 million in Japan and $3.7 million in Russia. At this point in the release cycle, Disney estimates Thor: Ragnarok is tracking +8% ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, +28% ahead of Doctor Strange and +59% ahead of Thor: The Dark World based on current exchange rates.

Ragnarok signifies the 17th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and its performance has now pushed the franchise over $13 billion globally and over $5 billion domestically.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4341

 

[Raiden]

Box Office Mojo


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4341

Wow, its Chinese box office is huge! If it can pull off what X-Men DOFP did over there it could mean that Thor Ragnarok may have a shot to approach 1B?

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Great stuff. We're looking at 800 million at least.

Oh I hope so!

 

[Silver Surfer]

Marvel making it look too easy, too easy.

 

[iEquinox]

THOR: RAGNAROK

With an added $151.4M overseas in his second frame, Thor 3 has hammered to $306M international and $427M at the worldwide box office. Internationally, the Chris Hemsworth-starrer is playing 8% ahead of Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 and 28% above Doctor Strange. At current exchange rates, GOTG2 finaled at $481M internationally while Doctor Strange earned $456M.

In IMAX plays, this weekend delivered a record breaking $25.4M globally to bring the total to date through Sunday to $34M. Overseas, $13.2M from 788 screens was the best ever November opening.

The second session play in already opened markets was 40% down. That’s well ahead of Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 which saw a 50% drop for the same suite of markets in its sophomore session. Doctor Strange dipped 37% in same grouping.

This session, China led play, natch, with an impressive $55.6M to land the best-ever industry opening for a November release. The IMAX gross there was $6M from 446 screens. Overall, the PROC opening weekend is 8% ahead of Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 and 23% ahead of Doctor Strange. It’s already beaten the lifetime of Thor: The Dark World. The film should utlimately top $100M in the Middle Kingdom.

Mexico was the next best start at $10.8M (+65% on Doctor Strange/-8% on GOTG2). In Germany, Thor 3 bowed to $5.5M ($8.9M including previews). The opening weekend is 70% ahead of Doctor Strange.

India set a new record for a November opening with $5.2M. The start is 142% above Doctor Strange and has topped the lifetimes of GOTG2 and The Dark World.

Japan bowed No. 1 with $3.5M, landing 7% below GOTG2. Russia opened to $3.7M from just IMAX/PLF/CIS states. The movie opens across the whole of Russia tomorrow. The limited opening was above Doctor Strange which had a similar release pattern last year.

Already opened markets saw an overall 40% drop. Holds were strong in such plays as Belgium (+4%), Brazil (even), France (-26%), New Zealand (-34%), Australia (-35%), Poland (-35%), Portugal (-35%), Singapore (-36%), Denmark (-36%), the UK (-38%) and South Africa (-39%).

Latin America and Europe saw overall regional drops of just 30% and 36%, respectively. No. 1s maintained in Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and French-speaking Switzerland.

In Asia, Thor 3 is still No. 1 in Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and likely Vietnam.

The Top 10 plays overall so far are China ($55.6M), the UK ($27.2M), Korea ($25.8M), Brazil ($19.3M), Australia ($15.5M), France ($14.9M), Mexico ($10.8M), Indonesia ($9.5M), Germany ($8.9M) and Italy ($8.1M).

http://deadline.com/2017/11/thor-ragnarok-china-weekend-results-international-box-office-1202202193/

Some early signs of the great reception is helping its legs there. Good drops in the markets it opened in last weekend. Significantly better than GotG2, and even almost as good as Doctor Strange, which is impressive because sequels tend to have significantly shorter legs than non-sequels.

 

[HammerDown]

THOR RAGNAROK

Opening Weekend - 120M
Domestic - 300M
Foreign - 600M
Worldwide = 900M

My very early prediction back in April.

OW - check

 

[Solaire]

Thor opening bigger than Spider-Man. Jesus.

I was gonna say it's the end of a trilogy so bad comparison but Spidey did have 5 solo films before HM and he is one of the worlds most popular heroes. Really impressive, hoping it has some legs.

 

[Mysteryman]

Thor opening bigger than Spider-Man. Jesus.

The Spider-Man franchise has had a rough couple of years and Thor didn't do it alone, he had the Hulk to help him.

 

[First Avenger]

The Spider-Man franchise has had a rough couple of years and Thor didn't do it alone, he had the Hulk to help him.

Spidey had Iron Man too. And Thor was almost everyone's least favourite franchise in the MCU.

 

[Finarfiniel]

Thor opening bigger than Spider-Man. Jesus.

This is an amazing start. Whoever would have predicted that, after the rather lacklustre reception to TDW, Thor 3 would end up opening bigger than Spidey's first MCU movie?? It all goes to prove that the marketing for this movie has been on point from that magnificent teaser trailer onwards, it has managed to build up so much hype. Whoever was in charge of the marketing campaign for Ragnarok needs a damn pay rise.

Of course, the fact that it's actually a really good film that has stellar reviews and word of mouth also helps.