2016 Primaries and Caucuses Thread - Part 1

[childeroland]

Clinton's only 90 delegates away from winning. What are the chances she wraps this up before the convention?

 

[Marvolo]

Clinton's only 90 delegates away from winning. What are the chances she wraps this up before the convention?

100%

Bernie and his supporters might kick and scream some more but on June 7 it will be officially over whether they like it or not.

 

[Chance Jackson]

Clinton's only 90 delegates away from winning. What are the chances she wraps this up before the convention?

How does that work? You need to reach the convention before counting supers (she's a little over 600 pledged delegates away)

 

[Webfoot Hero]

How does that work? You need to reach the convention before counting supers (she's a little over 600 pledged delegates away)

For all intents and purposes, those superdelegates are in the bag for her since many are long-time Democratic Party members who are more like her than Sanders.

 

[Marvolo]

How does that work? You need to reach the convention before counting supers (she's a little over 600 pledged delegates away)

Which is made up for by the 525 superdelegates that have already pledged their support. Yeah it won't be official until the convention, but it will be over June 7 no matter how much Bernie kicks and screams and pounds his fists on the floor. The convention will be a mere formality after June 7.

 

[TheBat812]

Bernie is also playing by the rules by staying in the race until the convention. I don't see the problem. He's also adamently stated that his supporters should support whoever opposes trump in the general. (The Bernie or bust mentality is stupid af. Even tho I don't really like Hillary, she would undeniably be an infinitely better president than trump)

Sure, Hillary will probably win, but to not continue to back your ideals and hopes for the country while you can would be an example of everything wrong with our system. People should fight for what they believe in until they must compromise, but not before. The Democratic Party needs to be reminded what it's constituency wants. If it's mostly Clinton based on votes, great! But if is also hugely Bernie, maybe they should take that into consideration as well.

 

[SV Fan]

Hurray for Sanity. Hopefully more States follow(I am looking at you Iowa)

http://www.twincities.com/2016/05/22/minnesota-moves-to-presidential-primary/

Minnesota moves to presidential primary in 2020

Minnesota will move from a presidential caucus to a presidential primary for the 2020 election. Gov. Mark Dayton signed the switch into law on Sunday.

Under the new system, voters would make their February partisan presidential picks in an election run by the state, rather than in caucuses run by parties.

Whether individual voters picked a Republican ballot or a Democratic one would become public, under the new law. But voters would not be bound in any way to their partisan picks in future elections nor would they have to register with any party in advance of the presidential primary.
The new primary system, which would get its first use in the 2020 election, would cost the state about $4 million a year.

The measure passed by overwhelming numbers in both the Republican-controlled House and the DFL-controlled Senate. The chairs of both the DFL and Republican parties supported the change and were intimately involved in crafting the legislation.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

They really do need to standardize the presidential primary system. There are just way too many variations and oddities for the average person to understand.

 

[Matt]

They really do need to standardize the presidential primary system. There are just way too many variations and oddities for the average person to understand.

But not really. Each state has their own laws, true. But its not like the average person is voting in Ohio, then Florida, then Nevada. So it really doesn't affect the day to day. The only ones who claim difficulties are the campaigns and that is disingenuous. The campaigns have local experts on election law on each state. The complaints are just a way to make excuses and keep the support rallied after a loss.

 

[SV Fan]

reason #237 Caucuses suck

So Washington State is having a primary with 0 Delegates awarded tonight and Hillary is winning. More people voted in tonight's primary then showed up the the Caucuses a couple months back.

Roughly 250k showed up to the Caucuses, while over 650K have shown up so far to the non binding primary(with only 75 reporting so far).

 

[childeroland]

 

[souvlaki]

How does that work? You need to reach the convention before counting supers (she's a little over 600 pledged delegates away)

You can apply the same logic to pledged delegates or for that matter the electoral college. I mean, thry dont vote until December. Maybe we should hold off on calling the election until then by your logic?

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

LOL at Sander's contested convention idea. Clinton will win on the first ballot. There is no contest, just sore-losing.

I also like the idea of Sanders thinking he can make some backroom deal to disregard the pledged delegate and vote leading candidate (Clinton) and that Clinton's supporters will totally be ok with him doing that. How high is this guy all the time? He's not against rigging elections - he's against rigging elections where he himself isn't doing the rigging. It's gross. I'd call him a Hugo Chavez wannabe, but Hugo Chavez actually had a lot more friends and allies to accomplish his agenda than Sanders does or ever will.

I don't even want him out there for Clinton campaigning whether he drops out soon or not, I want him to go back Vermont and just never be heard from again about anyone or anything in politics. It's sad to see so many young and poor people conned by this guy. His interviews with various media outlets have often been embarrassingly inept.

 

[souvlaki]

For what its worth Sanders was asked of his plans after Tuesday and he said he is returning to Vermont so maybe he is planning to concede. Also, Obama is planning on endorsing Clinton next week so I'm thinking this may all just be posturing before CA. Even if its not everyone in the media as well as the Democratic Party is going to be calling it for Clinton after Tuesday.

 

[Marvolo]

Bernie Sanders Campaign Is Split Over Whether to Fight on Past Tuesday

split is emerging inside the Bernie Sanders campaign over whether the senator should stand down after Tuesday’s election contests and unite behind Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, or take the fight all the way to the July party convention and try to pry the nomination from her.

One camp might be dubbed the Sandersistas, the loyalists who helped guide Mr. Sanders’s political ascent in Vermont and the U.S. Congress and are loath to give up a fight that has far surpassed expectations. Another has ties not only to Mr. Sanders but to the broader interests of a Democratic Party pining to beat back the challenge from Republican Donald Trump and make gains in congressional elections.

Mr. Sanders in recent weeks has made clear he aims to take his candidacy past the elections on Tuesday, when California, New Jersey and four other states vote. But the debate within the campaign indicates that Mr. Sanders’s next move isn’t settled.

For now, Democratic officials, fund-raisers and operatives are getting impatient, calling on Mr. Sanders to quit the race and begin the work of unifying the party for the showdown with the Republican presumptive nominee.

Orin Kramer, a New York hedge-fund manager who has raised campaign funds for both President Barack Obama and Mrs. Clinton, said with respect to Mr. Sanders’s future plans: “I would hope people would understand what a Trump presidency would mean and act accordingly—and ‘accordingly’ means quickly.”

A strong showing in New Jersey on Tuesday, before California results even come in, could help Mrs. Clinton reach the 2,383 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Her total includes hundreds of superdelegates—party leaders and elected officials who can back either candidate. Mr. Sanders is hoping that defeating Mrs. Clinton in the most populous state later Tuesday might give superdelegates reason to drop her and get behind his candidacy. Those superdelegates have given no indication they will shift allegiances.

Even so, Mr. Sanders isn’t backing off. In an interview that aired Sunday on CNN, he stepped up an attack on Mrs. Clinton involving the Clinton Foundation. Echoing a critique made by Republicans, Mr. Sanders said he has “a problem” with the foundation accepting money from foreign sources during her service as secretary of state.

In a news conference Saturday in California, Mr. Sanders indicated he would battle for superdelegates all the way to the convention.

“The Democratic National Convention will be a contested convention,” he said.

Mrs. Clinton, who won Puerto Rico’s Democratic primary on Sunday, seems to be running out of patience with Mr. Sanders. Having shifted her focus to Mr. Trump, she told CNN that after Tuesday, “I’m going to do everything I can to reach out to try to unify the Democratic Party, and I expect Sen. Sanders to do the same.”


http://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-...r-whether-to-fight-on-past-tuesday-1465171997

 

[souvlaki]

Just browsed all the appropriate threads. Did no one bring up the fact that AP called the race last night for Clinton? Figured everyone here would be talking about it this morning. I keep hearing Sanders' camp complaining the super delegates dont vote until July but if my memory serves me correctly the same thing happened to Obama in 2008 where AP called it after he had a combination of the needed delegates and super delegates to clinch it.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

After a roller-coaster of political highs and lows since launching her campaign 14 months ago, Clinton took advantage of four factors in her race against Bernie Sanders.

• She ran up the score in large states with large minority populations: Clinton's biggest delegate hauls were in large states with large minority populations, which allowed her to build a comfortable delegate lead over Sanders by March 15. By contrast, only one of Sanders' wins -- in Washington state -- netted him more than 40 delegates. All of the other big wins were Clinton's.
• Self-identified Democrats were her firewall: The chief reason why Sanders was unable to run up the score in the states he won is because of Clinton's strong performance with self-identified Democrats. When Sanders won, it was due to independents. But in the 27 states with exit polls, Clinton won self-identified Democrats by a 64%-35% margin, as the Atlantic's Ron Brownstein has observed.
• Party establishment embraced her and resisted Sanders: "The Party Decides" didn't work in the Republican presidential race, but it certainly did in the Democratic contest. Superdelegates have overwhelmingly backed Clinton by a 572-to-46 margin. It is very hard to lose a Democratic race when 1) self-identified Democrats and 2) Democratic Party elites are behind you.
• A no- (or little-) drama campaign: Unlike her campaign eight years ago, Clinton's 2016 campaign team never lost its cool or composure, even when things weren't going that well. Producing little drama is a benefit to any campaign -- and it's very hard to achieve.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-how-hillary-clinton-clinched-n587056

 

[Marvolo]

She won because she went back in time decades and had the Party create rules that would thwart Bernie in 2016.

Damn you Clinton and your sneaky time travel cheating!

 

[Marvolo]

Why is Rocky De La Fuente, Keith Judd, and Willie Wilson on the North Dakota Democrat caucus ballot? Are they even still in the race?

 

[hippie_hunter]

Hillary won New Jersey

 

[hippie_hunter]

Sanders appears to be underperforming.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Sanders wins North Dakota

 

[souvlaki]

I'm actually surprised to see it looks like Clinton might pull off South Dakota. I didnt think it would be close. I'm thinking Clinton gets NJ, NM, SD, Sanders gets Montana and ND. CA will be a complete toss up.

 

[Thundercrack85]

Just browsed all the appropriate threads. Did no one bring up the fact that AP called the race last night for Clinton? Figured everyone here would be talking about it this morning. I keep hearing Sanders' camp complaining the super delegates dont vote until July but if my memory serves me correctly the same thing happened to Obama in 2008 where AP called it after he had a combination of the needed delegates and super delegates to clinch it.

I find it a stupid move, even more so if the allegations are true, and the Clinton campaign persuaded the AP to put out that story.

She should just wait another day. Last thing they need is for it to look even more rigged than it is.

 

[Thundercrack85]

What is Rocky De La Fuente, Keith Judd, and Willie Wilson?

Fixed that for you.