2011: bad year for the box office?

[Timstuff]

I'm noticing a trend that most "tentpole" movies this summer are failing to meet studio projections. The only true success story we've seen has been Thor, and all the other big guns seems to have either underperformed or flopped outright. I am starting to think that 2011 has just plain been a bad year to release movies. The global economy is doing terrible, and people are pinching onto their coins the hardest they have since the Great Depression. As a result, people are being much more selective about how they use what little disposable income they have, and unfortunately, temporary, intangible amusements like movies are not very attractive right now.

Rather than spend $60 for a night at the movies, families would rather buy their kids a video game that they will play for a few weeks, or go to a restaurant where they can at least enjoy a nice meal. When people see TV spots for new movies, chances are they'd rather spend $15 on a DVD that they can watch an indefinite amount of times, or spend a dollar to rent it at Redbox. Movie theaters may have been a booming business during the Depression, but that was a different time-- tickets were cheaper, you got several hours worth of entertainment and news rather than just a single 90 minute feature, and common people had no means to enjoy movies at home. You can screen a video store's worth of movies to your cell phone these days, and in a tight economy things like this have turned theaters into a luxury item rather than a bargain.

It would be a shame if a sour economy kept a lot of our favorite "tent pole" movies this year from getting sequels, but it's entirely possible due to the sour economy. With an alarmingly high number of people who are jobless or between jobs and the rising prices of daily necessities like food and gasoline, going to the movies every 1-2 weeks just doesn't make financial sense for most families, and families are one of the most important demographics for tentpole movies.

 

[dark_b]

its funny how hollywood thinks that its better to throw all movies together in 2 months insted of realesing them over 5 months.

december and march are used more. i guess in the next year april will also be used for action movies.

p.s.: dont force people to watch bad 3D with expensive tickets. and they will come.

 

[Jennifer Walters]

It's the economy, gas prices, 3D, too much all packed together. This year has just been a rough year in many ways. It's why all the so called guaranteed successes are mostly either bombing or underperforming.

 

[Jager X]

I don't know about anyone else, but for me there is nothing really interesting to see this summer. Outside of one or two films I have seen all the movies that I wanted to before the summer began. I mean it could be the economy and all that stuff, or it could be that the general audience don't give two *****s about most of the movies that we drool about on this site.

 

[:eek:]

The year started really bad and for a while 2011 was not only behind 2010 and 2009 but 2008 and 2007 to. Things have been looking a little brighter for the last two months or so. And while 2011 is still quite a bit behind 2009 and 2010 it has at least passed 2007 and 2008 in money. Although I suspect that in ticket sales this year might still be the lowest in the last four years.

Things are looking a lot more rosier on the international market. Just look at the latest Pirates of the Caribbean.

 

[Rocketman]

This might sound completely stupid and off the mark, but here's my conclusion: There have only been two really big "event" movies in the past 5 years, and when I say "event", I mean when a movie transcends being just a movie and becomes a global experience and cultural phenomenon. I'm of course talking about The Dark Knight and Avatar. Even though I didn't personally care for Avatar, I still have to admit that I was caught up in the experience, and I can't deny that it was a worldwide phenomenon.

The problem is, speaking for myself, every big pseudo-event movie like Thor, Green Lantern, Captain America, and pretty much every big movie of the past two years, have been riding the coattails of The Dark Knight and Avatar. Instead of thinking, "Wow, I can't wait to see that!", I'm thinking, "Although that movie looks good, I'm reluctant to spend $10 on it, because I already know it won't be as good as The Dark Knight or Avatar."

Ironically, there's only one movie that truly blew me away since 2008, and that was Inception. And I promise you, before you label me a Nolan Fanboy, I'm not. I just love great, well-made movies, and Nolan happened to make two of them within two years.

In fact, a trend that I personally seem to be developing (and it's not good), is that I'm automatically measuring up movies to the greats I've seen in recent years. I mean, honestly, there are only 6 movies that have really been phenomenal for me in the past 10 years, not because I'm picky, but because each of the 6 movies really knocked me out and made me think, "Holy ****, that was an incredible movie." I'm referring to:

The Dark Knight
Inception
There Will Be Blood
The Fountain
The Mist
Toy Story 3

Everything else has been "not good as those movies." For me personally. I don't speak for anyone else.

 

[Immortalfire]

Indeed, not everyone can go see the big movies every freakin week. Spread em out like they used to be, and not crammed together.

 

[KangConquers]

This might sound completely stupid and off the mark, but here's my conclusion: There have only been two really big "event" movies in the past 5 years, and when I say "event", I mean when a movie transcends being just a movie and becomes a global experience and cultural phenomenon. I'm of course talking about The Dark Knight and Avatar. Even though I didn't personally care for Avatar, I still have to admit that I was caught up in the experience, and I can't deny that it was a worldwide phenomenon.

The problem is, speaking for myself, every big pseudo-event movie like Thor, Green Lantern, Captain America, and pretty much every big movie of the past two years, have been riding the coattails of The Dark Knight and Avatar. Instead of thinking, "Wow, I can't wait to see that!", I'm thinking, "Although that movie looks good, I'm reluctant to spend $10 on it, because I already know it won't be as good as The Dark Knight or Avatar."

Ironically, there's only one movie that truly blew me away since 2008, and that was Inception. And I promise you, before you label me a Nolan Fanboy, I'm not. I just love great, well-made movies, and Nolan happened to make two of them within two years.

In fact, a trend that I personally seem to be developing (and it's not good), is that I'm automatically measuring up movies to the greats I've seen in recent years. I mean, honestly, there are only 6 movies that have really been phenomenal for me in the past 10 years, not because I'm picky, but because each of the 6 movies really knocked me out and made me think, "Holy ****, that was an incredible movie." I'm referring to:

The Dark Knight
Inception
There Will Be Blood
The Fountain
The Mist
Toy Story 3

Everything else has been "not good as those movies." For me personally. I don't speak for anyone else.

The Dark Knight for me wasn't even the best movie of Summer 2008. That award goes to Wall-E (and I will fight anyone who disagrees!)

 

[Tron Bonne]

I don't really think we can lay this all on the economy. Or, well, at least not in this particular issue. The economy has been bad for a long time, it was this bad last year and the year before that, and both of those years saw great numbers from what I recall. In fact, I'm actually pretty sure that when the economy is down, cinema attendance tends to be up, as people are forfeiting grander things for movie tickets (at least, this has always been my understanding of the issue).

I think it really boils down to this summer just being too goddamned pack. Summer, of course, is the time when we see the blockbusters, but I really can't remember a time when so many were crammed together like this. I mean, it's like one mega-blockbuster comes out, and you turn around, and there's another one. I'll go out on a limb and say that even if the economy was a little better, you would still have this situation, because there's so much and I just don't think people are going to want to see everything that comes out. Even in less crowded summers, you get films that occasionally underperform (last year's A-Team, for example). Shoving all these films together was a mistake on the studio's part. They really should have reassessed their scheduling when we started seeing all these huge potential mega-blockbusters all crunched together.

 

[Evil Twin]

The idea that sequels automatically make more than then original as people "discover" them on video, really ought to be thoroughly refuted by now.

To top it off, reviews haven't been kind to most of the movies.

That said, there's been more than one hit. Bridesmaids is clearly profitable solely based on the domestic market. No disappointment there. Fast Five is practically a summer movie and more successful than Thor. Woody Allen has his most successful movie in a long time and is doing great business on basically the art house market. I'd be surprised if there's any Summer where there's more than two movies that really outperform expectations in any month.

And while it's certainly true that there have been disappointments, all of the movies so far have opened at respectable, even if they're disappointing, numbers. It's not like Green Lantern is going to end up doing Speed Racer business.

 

[Marvin]

The Dark Knight for me wasn't even the best movie of Summer 2008. That award goes to Wall-E (and I will fight anyone who disagrees!)

Panda was better than that film imo.

The problem really lies with the content. Studios always try to find some new excuse, like what's not trending anymore or prices or what not.

The fact is if the 7 some ought releases this year summer were 3 cases of TDK, one Avatar, 2 Toy Stories and a Spiderman 2 for good measure...the numbers would be strong. And there's no excuse for this not to be the case no matter what the reports say about the market. It must drive the big film makers nuts. Nolans sipping tea somewhere and he reads, "well maybe the audience just isn't into comic books anymore." he smirks and turns the page.

 

[Drizzle]

I'm noticing a trend that most "tentpole" movies this summer are failing to meet studio projections. The only true success story we've seen has been Thor, and all the other big guns seems to have either underperformed or flopped outright.

You're forgetting The Hangover 2, Fast Five, and (even though it didn't do as well as previous films in the franchise) Pirates of the Caribbean 4.

This thread is a bit premature, though. Harry Potter is going to be a box office juggernaut.

 

[kedrell]

POTC4 already IS a juggernaut, over seas. It'll be the 2nd billion dollar movie in that franchise's history within 2 weeks. That's a record....I think.

 

[Fanticon]

the next pirates movie should be released overseas first, and disney should wait 2 months in to the summer to dump it on the US. that I'd love to see.

 

[Jennifer Walters]

Alot of the movies this year are performing better overseas. Domestically people just aren't seeing as many movies for whatever reason.

I think this is the year overseas numbers will finally be looked at as important in the success of films as domestic.

 

[Drizzle]

POTC4 already IS a juggernaut, over seas. It'll be the 2nd billion dollar movie in that franchise's history within 2 weeks. That's a record....I think.

I was talking domestic numbers. Europeans just can't get enough of Johnny Depp for some reason.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

There hasn't been a movie that the audience deemed "an event" this year. Maybe Cap will be it?

I am starting to think that 2011 has just plain been a bad year to release movies. The global economy is doing terrible, and people are pinching onto their coins the hardest they have since the Great Depression. As a result, people are being much more selective about how they use what little disposable income they have, and unfortunately, temporary, intangible amusements like movies are not very attractive right now.

Movies reached new heights commercially during the depression.

Avatar came out in late 2009 and broke records all the way through the first quarter of 2010. I'd say the financial crisis was worse then.

 

[Motown Marvel]

i think studios are just spending too much money on movies. they keep spending money faster on movies than audience attendances are keeping up with.

 

[Drizzle]

There hasn't been a movie that the audience deemed "an event" this year. Maybe Cap will be it?

I hate to sound like a broken record, but...

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Oh yeah, completely forgot about Potter.

 

[scifiwolf]

I gauge event movies based on what gets my parents out of the house. In the last five years, you know those blockbusters have been? The Dark Knight, Star Trek, Avatar, and Inception.

 

[Marvin]

if potter is the event picture of the year, things don't look too good for the captain.

 

[Jennifer Walters]

The Dark Knight would've never been an event picture if Heath Ledger had not passed on. I know that's a terrible thing to say, but it's the cold hard truth. It would've done well, but his death propelled it to make as much as it did.

 

[nocomics]

Oh yeah, completely forgot about Potter.

I have yet to see one of the Harry Potter moviest:
I though completely agree movies need to be spaced out more to give ppl a breather,but its all about competition for ur money.

 

[Jennifer Walters]

It wasn't even about spacing. Movies come out all the time back to back like this. This year was just major franchise sequel or major potential new franchise one right after the other. People just can't afford to go see ''MAJOR MOVIE SEQUEL #1" one week then ''HOT FAMILY PICTURE" the next followed by ''MAJOR SUPERHERO MOVIE" the next.