Box Office 2006 Part 2

boxofficefanatic.com

go there, im a mod and all we discuss is box office its sick! :D

what killed superman was pirates. thats really it.

f you follow box office, youll know why this impressive as sequels always open huge but have big dropoffs, like XMEN 3 and its 141 million opening weekend, and then a total of 234. thats a multiplier of 1.65. Or Pirates 195 million opening week, and 420 million-ish total. thats a multiplier around 2.1.
Sequels OPEN huge and then lose momentum quickly.

Its the franchise starts like SPIDER-MAN, HARRY POTTER, BATMAN BEGINS, SUPERMAN-that-because their new audiences, they take longer to discover and build an audience-have the better legs.

SUPERMAN got the 5th biggest opening week EVER for a non sequel, behind SPIDERMAN(400 milliondomestic total), THE PASSION(380 million domestic total), HARRY POTTER 1(315 million domestic total) and WAR OF THRE WORLD(235 million domestic total). Had SUPERMAN gotten BATMAN BEGINS openingweek-to-total multiplier, it would of done 270 million. Had it got mr. and mrs. smith, it would of done 290 million. Superman word of mouth wasnt as good, but wasnt NEARLY bad enough so that the difference between what it SHOULD of gotten and what it did get, is as big as it is.

When 50% of the group that beats you gets 350 million+, and when the film isnt a bad movie at all, not getting 200 million shows a MAJOR problem with legs, in which youd have to look at WOM and RELEASE DATE.

Now word of mouth isnt in quesryion. 7.3 imdb rating. 75% rotten tomatoe rating.

release date-
As you can see above,SUPERMAN was in a position where, as a franchise starter, it would require BOX OFFICE LEGS to go from a decent gross(200 million) to great gross(250 million+). but then you have pirares 2, a film that had such good word of mouth, it built up an immense fanbase. as a sequel, it would open huge too.


so this is the equation.

FILM that requires legs opens the week before the film that will have big opening.

see why it doesnt work? see why it was piss poor planing on w.b.s fault? superman NEEDED legs to do 250 million no matter what. So putting in a position where,at the time its legs would kick in, it would opening against a film that was a lock for 115+ million opening weekend, was incredibly stupid on warner brothers part.

THATS WHAT WENT WRONG. In reality supermans legs-given the insanely overwhelming competition-are fantastic. But if anyone thinks superman dissappointed, dont look at routh or singer. look RIGHT at w.b. cause superman was famous enough and marketed well enough where it opened HUGE (108 million opening week) for a franchise starter. But it didnt get the standard legs franchise starters get(which would of given superman 250 million easy after that opening) due to pirates 2 being so close.

simple as that. open this on say POSIEIDONS WEEKEND or had they claimed MAY 5TH before mi3 did, superman woulda 250 million U.S. and 500 million WORLDWIDE n we wouldn be here.
 
Excel said:
boxofficefanatic.com

go there, im a mod and all we discuss is box office its sick! :D

what killed superman was pirates. thats really it.

f you follow box office, youll know why this impressive as sequels always open huge but have big dropoffs, like XMEN 3 and its 141 million opening weekend, and then a total of 234. thats a multiplier of 1.65. Or Pirates 195 million opening week, and 420 million-ish total. thats a multiplier around 2.1.
Sequels OPEN huge and then lose momentum quickly.

Its the franchise starts like SPIDER-MAN, HARRY POTTER, BATMAN BEGINS, SUPERMAN-that-because their new audiences, they take longer to discover and build an audience-have the better legs.

SUPERMAN got the 5th biggest opening week EVER for a non sequel, behind SPIDERMAN(400 milliondomestic total), THE PASSION(380 million domestic total), HARRY POTTER 1(315 million domestic total) and WAR OF THRE WORLD(235 million domestic total). Had SUPERMAN gotten BATMAN BEGINS openingweek-to-total multiplier, it would of done 270 million. Had it got mr. and mrs. smith, it would of done 290 million. Superman word of mouth wasnt as good, but wasnt NEARLY bad enough so that the difference between what it SHOULD of gotten and what it did get, is as big as it is.

When 50% of the group that beats you gets 350 million+, and when the film isnt a bad movie at all, not getting 200 million shows a MAJOR problem with legs, in which youd have to look at WOM and RELEASE DATE.

Now word of mouth isnt in quesryion. 7.3 imdb rating. 75% rotten tomatoe rating.

release date-
As you can see above,SUPERMAN was in a position where, as a franchise starter, it would require BOX OFFICE LEGS to go from a decent gross(200 million) to great gross(250 million+). but then you have pirares 2, a film that had such good word of mouth, it built up an immense fanbase. as a sequel, it would open huge too.


so this is the equation.

FILM that requires legs opens the week before the film that will have big opening.

see why it doesnt work? see why it was piss poor planing on w.b.s fault? superman NEEDED legs to do 250 million no matter what. So putting in a position where,at the time its legs would kick in, it would opening against a film that was a lock for 115+ million opening weekend, was incredibly stupid on warner brothers part.

THATS WHAT WENT WRONG. In reality supermans legs-given the insanely overwhelming competition-are fantastic. But if anyone thinks superman dissappointed, dont look at routh or singer. look RIGHT at w.b. cause superman was famous enough and marketed well enough where it opened HUGE (108 million opening week) for a franchise starter. But it didnt get the standard legs franchise starters get(which would of given superman 250 million easy after that opening) due to pirates 2 being so close.

simple as that. open this on say POSIEIDONS WEEKEND or had they claimed MAY 5TH before mi3 did, superman woulda 250 million U.S. and 500 million WORLDWIDE n we wouldn be here.
Yeah, interesting piece. You can´t say a movie that made 84m in its first five days and is gonna make close to 200m (197,198m) is a terrible performer. It had good reviews. It gets good user grades on sites like Yahoo Movies and RottenTomatoes and IMDB, and the viewers on these sites are actually usually harsher than casual moviegoers. I have no doubt that, if WB had picked a better slot, the result would have been different. It´s too bad we live in an age where the studios are making their big releases so frikking expensive that the fifth grossing movie of the year domestically is called a disappointment.
 
yeah, i mean i honestly dont know WHAT they were thinking. every member of the box office sites I go to saw ythe problems MONTHS in advance, as in like last summer.

yet w.b. didnt.
 
The lesson I learned this summer is, as usual, the boxoffice is very unpredictable but this year wasn't as unpredictable as some might have you believe. Most people who know a thing or two about the boxoffice knew/thought that Pirates 2 was going to be number one and quite a few guessed over 400mil in total.

I didn't expect Superman returns to be as rejected as it was though. I thought it would do atleast 250mil, but boring/awful previews and a bad release date made that impossible I guess.

Most of my predictions like everyone else's are never going to be right, but I did about as well as I expected.
 
Comingsoon's predictions:

The Covenant: $14 to 16 million opening; $35 million total.

Hollywoodland: $4 to 6 million opening; $18 million total.

The Protector: $5 to 6 million opening; $12 million total.
 
Looks like Superman will hit the $200 million mark domestically...
 
SR making $200 million doesn't make up for not being so much more of a movie that it was. :(
 
Wha ???!!??

Supes making the 200 million domestic.
Don't think so , at least if i'm to believe the figures the BO MOJO :
It's not at 196 million and it's daily gross has dropped to less then 100.000 a day. Maybe if WB keeps Sr in the cinemas , but i doubt that it'll hit the 200 million unless SR is still watched till december with the same amount of screens. And then of course there's the fact that more and more new movies are coming out each day.

Sad tough , cause i never had predicited that SR even with the requel stuff and the Donner crap would make less then 200 million. 250 was dead lock.
 
matrix_ghost said:
Wha ???!!??

Supes making the 200 million domestic.
Don't think so , at least if i'm to believe the figures the BO MOJO :
It's not at 196 million and it's daily gross has dropped to less then 100.000 a day. Maybe if WB keeps Sr in the cinemas , but i doubt that it'll hit the 200 million unless SR is still watched till december with the same amount of screens. And then of course there's the fact that more and more new movies are coming out each day.

Sad tough , cause i never had predicited that SR even with the requel stuff and the Donner crap would make less then 200 million. 250 was dead lock.

:confused:

It's at $196.8 million right now. It earned $1.1 million over the 4-day Labor Day weekend... and it's 3-day take was $870 thousand, which was a slight increase over it's previous weekend take of $780,405...
 
I'm talking about it's daily gross which is somewhere below the 100.000 mark.
And it's at 196.7.
Great a few more of of 80.000 gross and in a month or so they'll be there.
Assuming that they'll stay in the theaters that long
 
The daily numbers aren't going to make much of a difference now. It's weekend figures are strong enough for Supes to make it over $200 million in a few weeks...
 
Again i say , assuming that Supes stays that long in cinemas and holds on to that theatre count ;)
 
North America

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($414 million)
2. Cars ($242 million)
3. X-Men: The Last Stand ($234,3 million)
4. The Da Vinci Code ($217,5 million)
5. Superman Returns ($196,8 million)
6. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($195,3 million)
7. Over the Hedge ($155 million)
8. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby ($138,3 million)
9. Click ($136,5 million)
10. Mission: Impossible III ($133,5 million)
11. The Devil Wears Prada ($122 million)
12. The Break-Up ($118,7 million)
13. Scary Movie 4 ($90,7 million)
14. Failure to Launch ($88,7 million)
15. Inside Man ($88,5 million)
16. The Pink Panther ($82,2 million)
17. Eight Below ($81,6 million)
18. Nacho Libre ($80,2 million)
19. You, Me and Dupree ($74,6 million)
20. RV ($71,4 million)
 
Worldwide

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($995,6 million)
2. The Da Vinci Code ($753,5 million)
3. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($645,8 million)
4. X-Men: The Last Stand ($441,6 million)
5. Cars ($414,8 million)
6. Mission: Impossible III ($395,3 million)
7. Superman Returns ($377,8 million)
8. Over the Hedge ($307,1 million)
9. The Break-Up ($189 million)
10. Inside Man ($183,9 million)
11. Poseidon ($181,7 million)
12. Scary Movie 4 ($176,4 million)
13. Click ($172,1 million)
14. The Pink Panther ($158,4 million)
15. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift ($147,1 million)
16. Talladega Nighta: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby ($138,9 million)
17. Big Momma's House 2 ($138,1 million)
18. V for Vendetta ($131,4 million)
19. Failure to Launch ($128,2 million)
20. Miami Vice ($126,6 million)
 
Do you guys think Pirates has any chance of mebbe even surpassing ROTK wordwide total ?
 
Well, SR beat BB worldwide... Of course it cost more, yadda yadda, but it´s not a bad result. In terms of recent superhero movies, he´s only behind the Spidey movies and the second and third X-Men.
 
matrix_ghost said:
Do you guys think Pirates has any chance of mebbe even surpassing ROTK wordwide total ?

No. It still needs another $200 million if I'm not mistaken. I don't see that happening.
 
ROTK made $1118,9 million worldwide, which means POTC 2 needs another $123,3 million. But Italy seems to be the only country left for it to open in, so... I don't know. It could be close.
 
North America

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($414,6 million)
2. Cars ($242,1 million)
3. X-Men: The Last Stand ($234,3 million)
4. The Da Vinci Code ($217,5 million)
5. Superman Returns ($197 million)
6. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($195,3 million)
7. Over the Hedge ($155 million)
8. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby ($139,2 million)
9. Click ($136,5 million)
10. Mission: Impossible III ($133,5 million)
11. The Devil Wears Prada ($122,2 million)
12. The Break-Up ($118,7 million)
13. Scary Movie 4 ($90,7 million)
14. Failure to Launch ($88,7 million)
15. Inside Man ($88,5 million)
16. The Pink Panther ($82,2 million)
17. Eight Below ($81,6 million)
18. Nacho Libre ($80,2 million)
19. You, Me and Dupree ($74,7 million)
20. RV ($71,4 million)
 
Year-to-date comparison

Total box office numbers between 1 January and 7 September

2006: $6 492,6 million
2005: $6 153,3 million
2004: $6 761,4 million
2003: $6 428,4 million
2002: $6 407,3 million

POTC 2 has certainly been the box office saviour this year so far. Without the movie this year would be lagging behind even last year.
 
matrix_ghost said:
Do you guys think Pirates has any chance of mebbe even surpassing ROTK wordwide total ?

Nope, he want be able to catch ROTK.

Anyone know the budget for the Invicibles?
 
Well, next year we should have a pretty interesting clash...
 

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