spider-neil
spins a web any size!
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Simple question, do you think ASM2 will make more or less money than ASM?
The factors for me are;
1. Superhero burnout
2. Spidey burnout
3. How well ASM was recieved on DVD/Blu Ray
4. If there are genuine links with the Avengers
5. We are over the reboot origin hump
I think a lot of people were pleasantly surprised by TASM. There was little to no hype for the movie, yet it still made over $700 Million world-wide. It came out after the Avengers, and weeks before The Dark Knight Rises, both of which were the big movies of 2012.
If Sony wanted TAS-M to get as much as it could have, they should have picked the month that wasn't occupied with the big two CBMs of the year.
May - Avengers
June - TAS-M
July - TDKR
I have always thought that was the best way to go. Even with how much I wasn't a huge fan of the film, it is Spider-Man after all and the character is a money maker.
With all you said, I still don't get how June wasn't the perfect and ideal choice. It would have had four great weeks.
Yeah, I think Sony's just too attached to that end-of-June/beginning-of-July spot to let it go. They basically have 2 Spidey slots: That one, and the 1st weekend in May. They've had great success in both, so when the May slot's taken (as it was by Marvel this year), they're just too afraid to try anything other than their back-up Spidey slot. Especially when June has developed a stigma of being less kind to the genre at the box office (SR, GL, BB, F4:RotSS) than the months surrounding it. A stigma I think is total BS (and I'm hoping MoS is about to shatter it), but numbers-wise, I can see Sony being afraid to move away from their "proven" slots.With all you said, I still don't get how June wasn't the perfect and ideal choice. It would have had four great weeks.
Then the movie would have been rushed.Waste of time releasing before May. Pointless releasing at Christmas (Hobbit).
That left May (the start of the blockbuster season) taken by Avengers and July and that was taken but TDKR they had no choice but to release it when they did. If Sony were really smart they would have released the movie in 2011 where the competition was Thor, Cap and X-Men...you see my point.
If you think ASM2 is going to have a 33% surge at the box office and break a billion you are smoking the Mary Jane. ASM1 with 3D didn't get close. ASM2 won't get close to $400 million US and it's not gonna go get $700 million overseas. A pipe dream.
At this point in time, things may change with trailers and reports, I guess $315 million domestic...still in the shadow of teh Raimizzzzzz.
I don't think Captain America 2 will be much of a threat to be honest.TASM2 is back in the May sweet spot, but the power of that sweet spot might be undermined a bit by the April release of Cap 2 "officially" kicking off the summer, so I'm gonna predict that TASM2 makes more than TASM, but still falls short of a billion. It may very well cross that mark, though. I think a lot of that will depend on how much this installment looks like a new exciting story in the marketing, as TASM looking like a retread obviously dampened interest in it quite a bit. Electro could be a pretty visually eye-catching villain if done well, and one that doesn't resemble any of the Spidey villains put on film so far, so that could certainly help.
If Sony wanted TAS-M to get as much as it could have, they should have picked the month that wasn't occupied with the big two CBMs of the year.
May - Avengers
June - TAS-M
July - TDKR
I have always thought that was the best way to go. Even with how much I wasn't a huge fan of the film, it is Spider-Man after all and the character is a money maker.
Then the movie would have been rushed.
If TASM made $752 million worldwide, then the sequel can probably make about the same if not more.
I don't think Captain America 2 will be much of a threat to be honest.
I certainly cannot wait for a teaser trailer for TASM2.
The First Avenger made $368 million. Not bad, but not that impressive either. The Winter Soldier could make over $400 million probably.Agreed.
Cap will do well but I don't think it will hurt ASM2.
Not directly, I agree. But the reason that May spot produces such killer opening weekends is supposedly because it traditionally hosts the first blockbuster of the summer, when audiences are hungry for their summer entertainment and a reprieve from the doldrums of the graveyard months. But if they've already gotten that reprieve and already had a taste of blockbuster at that point, that hunger won't be quite as strong.I don't think Captain America 2 will be much of a threat to be honest.
Me neither.I certainly cannot wait for a teaser trailer for TASM2.
If you think ASM2 is going to have a 33% surge at the box office and break a billion you are smoking the Mary Jane. ASM1 with 3D didn't get close. ASM2 won't get close to $400 million US and it's not gonna go get $700 million overseas. A pipe dream.
At this point in time, things may change with trailers and reports, I guess $315 million domestic...still in the shadow of teh Raimizzzzzz.
Again, that's why I said not directly. Cap 2 isn't gonna overlap with TASM 2. That's obvious. But there's something to be said for being first out of the gate when it comes to the summer movie season. That's why the May Sweet Spot became the May Sweet Spot in the first place.Cap 2 isn't going hurt AMS2 because its being released the beginning of April not the last week of it, Robopocalypse could be a wildcard.
It had a 44% drop off the second weekend out (which is good). By the third weekend when TDKR came out, it wasn't making much anyways...$10ish million. Another $5-$10 million ain't gangbustin' the box office. So, TDKR didn't hurt it that much. Yeah it lost a little but it's not like it would have made $300+ million domestic. What hurt ASM the most is itself. It was a full on reboot off of the heels of a much loved critically and financially successful franchise that only received mediocre-okay reviews by critics and the audience. It was also released in 3D and it didn't beat any of the previous installments by nearly $100 million adjusted for inflation.You forget that, unlike ASM, ASM2 won't take a big hit to its box office.
ASM took a huge loss due to TDKR coming out a mere two weeks after it did. It had no chance of beating out TDKR, no matter how hyped it was or how good it was.
ASM2 won't have that problem, at least, as big a problem.
I would say the only certain box office threats ASM2 has for about a span of 2 months are Transformers 4, which hits June 27.
Other films slated for release between those 2 span include Godzilla, Ninja Turtles, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, and How to Train Your Dragon, in that order. They are expected to be big films financially.
I don't think its out of the realm of possibility for ASM2 to do much better than ASM2.