Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[BigThor]

I'm sorry that I misunderstood your post. For a fleeting moment I thought you were making fun of my 'fun' comment but I realize nao that you were most likely doubling up on it.

Yeah I was doubling up on it.

 

[HammerDown]

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Trends Upward

Thor: Ragnarok‘s marketing campaign has heated up early, with unofficial word from industry screenings suggesting this is another Marvel title audiences are going to fall in love with. If official reviews surge into the stratosphere when the embargo lifts, this may be a forecast that continues climbing upward.

September 8th: OW = 100M / DOM = 250M
October 13th: OW = 105M / DOM = 269M

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-just-getting-started/

 

[Iceman]

Hopefully it keeps scaling up as we get closer.

 

[All-Father]

September 8th: OW = 100M / DOM = 250M
October 13th: OW = 105M / DOM = 269M

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-just-getting-started/

Excellent! It will only go up.

 

[Iceman]

Over $300m dom would be nice, although that would be a big step up from the previous films.

 

[iEquinox]

For OS, exchange rates have gotten a lot worse since The Dark World came out, so Ragnarok needs to make significantly more in local currencies to match The Dark World's OS number in dollars.

Ragnarok is in a very similar position to GotG2 when compared to their predecessors. Exchange rates for The Dark World were pretty much the same as they were for GotG1, which is a lot better than they are now. TDW and GotG1 also made a very similar amount OS, with $438M for TDW and $440M for GotG1.

Many people thought GotG2 would increase a lot from GotG1 OS, and it actually did in local currencies, but exchange rates really held it back. If GotG2 had the same exchange rates as GotG1, it would have made about $100M more OS. Exchange rates are a major factor here, and it shouldn't be overlooked when you're using The Dark World as a comparison.

We shouldn't be shocked if Ragnarok did similar OS numbers to GotG2($474M).

Ragnarok has one trump card up its sleeves for OS numbers compared to TDW though: China. TDW is the lowest grossing MCU film in China in the last 6 years by a pretty wide margin: it made $55M in China while all other MCU movies since The First Avenger(2011) have made at least $85M+. If Ragnarok can make about $100M in China, that could give the OS numbers a nice boost, and a similar increase from its predecessor(similar to GotG2 -> GotG1) in the rest of the OS market would then get it to about $500M OS, a milestone only 10 superhero movies have passed before.

 

[AlluAllu]

^This guy analyzed the #### out of Spider-Man: Homecoming box office. If they're gonna do the same here, that's gonna be awesome.

 

[HammerDown]

Top November Opening Weekends:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - 158M
2. The Twilight Saga: New Moon - 142
3. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - 141
4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - 138
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 - 125
6. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 - 121
7. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 102
8. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 - 102
...

 

[HammerDown]

Another comparison i would like to make here. This time between Thor Ragnarok and Spider-Man: Homecoming and both according to Deadline. At exactly the same time from the release date of both movies Deadline put out 2 articles, one for each movie analyzing their opening weekend projection numbers.

Now the early projections we're...

Sony’s Spider-Man: Homecoming hit tracking today and is projected to have an opening between $90M-$108M when it opens on July 7. This is according to industry tracking, not Sony.

Like most superhero movies outside of Wonder Woman, Homecoming is especially strong with young males right now, “but strong across the board” according to one rival studio box office guru. We’re hearing that the movie truly stokes families.

Thor Ragnarok, the third in the series, hit tracking this morning, and it’s looking at a $100M-$110M start per industry figures with enormous strength among the four quadrants: very strong with families, Hispanics and African Americans.

Spider-Man Homecoming ended up having a Opening Weekend of 117M.
Just to put things into perspective. I can easily see Thor Ragnarok having a very strong opening weekend.

http://deadline.com/2017/10/thor-ragnarok-box-office-opening-projection-1202187006/
http://deadline.com/2017/06/spider-man-homecoming-hoping-to-catch-opening-in-the-100m-vicinity-1202114641/

 

[Playco Armboy]

Predicting a $125m OW, $325m DOM, $500m OS for a cumulative worldwide gross of $825m.

This with the assumption of a 90+ RottenTomatoes score.

 

[HammerDown]

THOR RAGNAROK

Opening Weekend - 120M
Domestic - 300M
Foreign - 600M
Worldwide = 900M

I'm keeping my predictions until the movie comes out. I think both the Opening Weekend and the Domestic are doable. The only one i think i may have over-predicted is the Foreign which probably could end up around 550M.

 

[Iceman]

I'm keeping my predictions until the movie comes out. I think both the Opening Weekend and the Domestic are doable. The only one i think i may have over-predicted is the Foreign which probably could end up around 550M.

Sounds reasonable.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Would be so happy for Hemsworth and company if this were to open up in the vicinity of $120 million - especially considering how neglected this franchise his been.

 

[Playco Armboy]

Would be so happy for Hemsworth and company if this were to open up in the vicinity of $120 million - especially considering how neglected this franchise his been.

'Neglected' is a strong word. A ballhair away from $650 million for Thor: The Dark World is no small feat.

 

[JtheDreamer]

'Neglected' is a strong word. A ballhair away from $650 million for Thor: The Dark World is no small feat.

Strong, but the truth.

They had five writers on T:TDW, which shows you how improperly handled the franchise is. It's also the lowest grossing individual franchise within the MCU.

 

[Playco Armboy]

Strong, but the truth.

They had five writers on T:TDW, which shows you how improperly handled the franchise is.

I mean, Spider-Man: Homecoming had, what, six writers? Not indicative of how Marvel prioritizes their films at all.

It's also the lowest grossing individual franchise within the MCU

Thor grossed more than The First Avenger. Has yet to be seen whether or not Ant-Man and the Wasp can exceed The Dark World's numbers, though I'd personally bet on it.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I mean, Spider-Man: Homecoming had, what, six writers? Not indicative of how Marvel prioritizes their films at all.



Thor grossed more than The First Avenger. Has yet to be seen whether or not Ant-Man and the Wasp can exceed The Dark World's numbers, though I'd personally bet on it.

The entire franchise includes both Thor movies - not just the first one. We can't include Ant-Man in this conversation because he's only had one film.

 

[HammerDown]

It's also the lowest grossing individual franchise within the MCU.

Well it's the only MCU franchise besides GOTG with 2 movies.

Interestingly enough Thor and Thor: TDW made more money(1.093B) at the BO than CA: First Avenger and CA: Winter Soldier(1.084B). Iron Man and Iron Man 2 made 1.2B.

 

[BigThor]

Well it's the only MCU franchise besides GOTG with 2 movies.

Interestingly enough Thor and Thor: TDW made more money(1.093B) at the BO than CA: First Avenger and CA: Winter Soldier(1.084B). Iron Man and Iron Man 2 made 1.2B.

People forget that though, Thor: The Dark World made more than Iron Man 2. Thor 1 also made more than The First Avenger. It might not be critically as acclaimed as those franchises but at the 2 film marker it's just as commercially successful.

 

[Iceman]

People forget that though, Thor: The Dark World made more than Iron Man 2. Thor 1 also made more than The First Avenger. It might not be critically as acclaimed as those franchises but at the 2 film marker it's just as commercially successful.

Yeah, and Iron Man (1) and TWS were the breakout films for those 2 franchises. Maybe Ragnarok can be that film for the Thor franchise.

 

[BigThor]

Yeah the Iron Man franchise peaked with the first film, no one talks about that though.

I'd rather the 3rd film in a franchise be the best one anyway, but it's rarely been done.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah the Iron Man franchise peaked with the first film, no one talks about that though.

I'd rather the 3rd film in a franchise be the best one anyway, but it's rarely been done.

I also don't think there would be the same interest in a load more Iron Man films even with how huge RDJ Stark is. There aren't many characters like Thor who I think could support solo films in the long term way beyond a trilogy. They are going to have to be at the level we are expecting from Ragnarok though, no more TDW stuff.

 

[Moridin]

I've been thinking $800+ WW for Ragnarok since early this year, and that hasn't really changed.

Same about it opening over $100m, TDW's OW was $85 which is about $92m adjusted and Ragnarok has way more hype. Opening over $100m has been a given for a long time (provided the film delivered).

Something approaching $120m OW / $300m domestic, maybe even over that.

Yeah the Iron Man franchise peaked with the first film, no one talks about that though.

I'd rather the 3rd film in a franchise be the best one anyway, but it's rarely been done.

Most people think that IM1 is the best one. I think IM3 is tops.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Well it's the only MCU franchise besides GOTG with 2 movies.

Interestingly enough Thor and Thor: TDW made more money(1.093B) at the BO than CA: First Avenger and CA: Winter Soldier(1.084B). Iron Man and Iron Man 2 made 1.2B.

Maybe I'm not doing well enough job explaining myself here, but even thru the first two films of each franchise who has multiple - Thor's is the lowest.

I dunno why this is even a discussion right now. Financially it hasn't been anywhere close to a top earner for the MCU. "Relatively" speaking it's been an under-achieving franchise.

 

[Playco Armboy]

Maybe I'm not doing well enough job explaining myself here, but even thru the first two films of each franchise who has multiple - Thor's is the lowest.

I dunno why this is even a discussion right now. Financially it hasn't been anywhere close to a top earner for the MCU. "Relatively" speaking it's been an under-achieving franchise.

It's a franchise getting its third entry four years after the second. That's not overtly long a gap considering every franchise has had a three-year spacing between sequels with only two exceptions: Civil War and Iron Man 2.

'Neglected' implies fault on Marvel Studios.