Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[fancyarcher]

OW: 130m
DOM: 340m
WW: 845m

Is my prediction.

 

[ironman_rick]

The article you posted is from the 21st October. But the article they refer to as " "official tracking now..." is from the 12th October. And as i said it was based on a Yahoo article that said 90 to 100M.

Deadline had it between 100 to 110 and Box Office Pro already increased their prediction to 105M. I have little to no doubt that this will easily crack 100M OW.

My prediction all along has been 120M. And with the buzz and critical response it may very well happen.

It would be awesome if TR gets $120M.... It will surely clear $300M domestic easily this way.

 

[ironman_rick]

Yes, the article you posted is dated 21st, but the article it links to is dated 12th October 2017. It's an old pre-reviews estimate, it's not new.

My bad......

I have to admit....i was quite disappointed to read that screenrant article about $90M.

 

[HammerDown]

My bad......

I have to admit....i was quite disappointed to read that screenrant article about $90M.

Well it will do much more than that i'm sure of it. Thor: TDW did 85M OW. There's no chance in hell this doesn't do way more than that. Easily over 100M.

 

[Iceman]

I guess soon we should be getting revised box office predictions and also more accurate. Let's see how much the RT rating will or will not have an impact on the movie success, because Spider-Man: Homecoming clearly benefited from a very good critical reception.

Hopefully a big effect. It's been pretty unanimous praise with the reviews saying they expect the GA to like this much more than previous Thor films and some saying it's among Marvel's best.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/10/thor-ra...ulk-marvel-disney-chris-hemsworth-1202193761/

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok begins hammering international turnstiles today with the UK release, a non-traditional Tuesday fueled by school vacations. By Friday the Crown Prince of Asgard will be in 35 material markets for about half of the offshore footprint. Along with the UK, Thor rocks into such majors as France, Italy, Spain, Korea, Australia and Brazil this week. Next week, the film hits the rest of the world including not only North America, but China and Japan.

The overseas opening on the third pic in the god of thunder’s franchise is eyed at a range of $85M-$100M, per industry sources. Some see anticipation so high that reaching above $100M is possible, but as ever tracking is not as comprehensive internationally and so a clearer picture begins to emerge once the first markets come online.

In a similar corridor in 2013, The Dark World opened to $79.9M in the same suite of markets and at today’s exchange rates. GOTG2 bowed in late April this year to $102.8M in like-for-like plays and at current numbers.

As for Doctor Strange, it opened to $88.1M last year at this time, again using the similar launch markets and today’s exchange.

 

[iEquinox]

http://deadline.com/2017/10/thor-ra...ulk-marvel-disney-chris-hemsworth-1202193761/

To truly beat The Dark World's opening in these markets it'll need to do significantly more than TDW's "$79.9M in the same suite of markets and at today’s exchange rates" though, because exchange rates are significantly worse now. Making "the same" amount in USD as TDW did OS actually means making quite a lot more today. Take Russia for example. The Dark World made about 117.5M Russian Rubles in 2013. That was $35.7M in 2013, but at today's exchange rates, it's $20.4M. That's $15M+ gone, and that's from just one market.

Hopefully these disadvantages will be balanced out by significant growth from The Dark World in local currencies and a bigger take from China.

 

[HammerDown]

The Thor franchise/character is strong overseas. Even with average reviews for the previous movie, Thor: TDW still managed to gather 438M overseas... I see it surely making over 500M overseas this time around with a much more appealing type/style of movie, the spectacle, humor, the cast, director... And also much better reviewed too. Most likely it will all help increase by a good margin the foreign box office results.

 

[Tymminator]

This has been an incredible year for superhero comic movies. Thor: Ragnarok is looking very positive and if Justice League also pulls it off, it will be a clean sweep.

I can’t wait for this movie.

 

[iEquinox]

The Thor franchise/character is strong overseas. Even with average reviews for the previous movie, Thor: TDW still managed to gather 438M overseas... I see it surely making over 500M overseas this time around with a much more appealing type/style of movie, the spectacle, humor, the cast, director... And also much better reviewed too. Most likely it will all help increase by a good margin the foreign box office results.

One thing to keep in mind though is that TDW's $438M would be about $360M at today's exchange rates. Just matching TDW's $438M would mean it already increased by a good margin OS.

I am expecting it to beat TDW's $438M as well though, and I can see it getting past $500M as well, but if ends up a bit below $500M that wouldn't really disappoint me either.

 

[HammerDown]

Variety

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Tracking for $100 Million-Plus Opening in North America

Disney-Marvel’s “Thor: Ragnarok“ should dominate the early November box office with $100 million or more in its opening weekend in North America, early projections are showing.

The tentpole should provide a boost to what’s been a downbeat October for moviegoing. Overall box office for the year-to-date is down nearly 5%, according to comScore, with “It” being the only title in recent months to perform over expectations. “It” was one of five films to open above $100 million, joining “Beauty and the Beast,” “Wonder Woman,” “Spider-Man: Homecoming,” and “Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2.”

“Thor: Ragnarok” is directed by Taika Waititi from a screenplay by Eric Pearson and the writing team of Craig Kyle and Christopher Yost. It stars Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, Cate Blanchett, Idris Elba, Jeff Goldblum, Tessa Thompson, Karl Urban, Mark Ruffalo, and Anthony Hopkins.

The franchise launched in 2011 at Paramount, distributing the movie under its deal with Marvel. Its opening weekend was $65.7 million on its way to a final $181 million. Disney and Marvel teamed on 2013’s “Thor: The Dark World” with an $85.7 million domestic opening and a $206.4 million final total.

About half of the international markets for “Thor: Ragnarok” will open this week, starting on Oct. 24 in the U.K., followed by France, Italy, Korea, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland, Indonesia, Philippines, and Taiwan on Oct. 25. Oct. 26 will see Australia, Brazil, Denmark, Netherlands, Portugal, and Hong Kong; Oct. 27 launches include Spain, Iceland, Norway, South Africa, and Sweden.

Tracking for international markets is tricky. Debuts in the same suite of markets at today’s exchange rates saw “Thor: The Dark World” open with about $80 million.

Major markets opening next week include Germany on Oct. 31; Russia and Mexico on Nov. 2; and China, India, and Japan with the U.S. on Nov. 3.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/thor-ragnarok-tracking-box-office-north-america-1202597254/

 

[HammerDown]

Update to the amount of IMAX tickets sold in the theatre near me. 5 days before release.

Opening day / Friday - 723 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (34% of tickets.)
Saturday - 604 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (29%)
Sunday - 305 tickets sold out of 1684 available. (18%)

Opening Weekend totals: 1632 IMAX tickets sold out of 5894. (28%)

Update to the amount of IMAX tickets sold in the theatre near me. 3 days before release.

Opening day / Friday - 827 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (39% of tickets.)
Saturday - 813 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (39%)
Sunday - 398 tickets sold out of 1684 available. (24%)

Opening Weekend totals: 2038 IMAX tickets sold out of 5894. (35%)

 

[iEquinox]

Production budget is listed as $180 million at boxofficemojo.

Including Ragnarok, the combined production budget of the MCU is now over $3 billion. Ragnarok will push the MCU's domestic total past the $5 billion mark, and the worldwide total past $13 billion. Those are some pretty crazy numbers.

 

[Iceman]

Production budget is listed as $180 million at boxofficemojo.

Including Ragnarok, the combined production budget of the MCU is now over $3 billion. Ragnarok will push the MCU's domestic total past the $5 billion mark, and the worldwide total past $13 billion. Those are some pretty crazy numbers.

And with 3 movies a year including 2 unprecedented universe events in 2 years those numbers are going to keep growing at a healthy rate for the foreseeable future.

 

[HammerDown]

People in the UK are buzzing with the movie.
All over Twitter, Youtube... The movie will do a ton at the box office over there.

 

[Finarfiniel]

People in the UK are buzzing with the movie.
All over Twitter, Youtube... The movie will do a ton at the box office over there.

Like I said in the main thread, my theatre tonight was packed and the reactions from the audience were extremely positive. It seemed everyone was having an absolute blast. Getting that word of mouth going! t:

 

[HammerDown]

Other markets where the movie opens today.

25th October - Belgium, Netherlands, France, Italy, Philippines, South Korea, Colombia...

Underlined those countries that normally have a bigger turn out at the box office.

 

[HammerDown]

Update to the amount of IMAX tickets sold in the theatre near me. 3 days before release.

Opening day / Friday - 827 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (39% of tickets.)
Saturday - 813 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (39%)
Sunday - 398 tickets sold out of 1684 available. (24%)

Opening Weekend totals: 2038 IMAX tickets sold out of 5894. (35%)

Update to the amount of IMAX tickets sold in the theatre near me. 2 days before release.

Opening day / Friday - 974 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (46% of tickets.)
Saturday - 928 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (44%)
Sunday - 450 tickets sold out of 1684 available. (27%)

Opening Weekend totals: 2352 IMAX tickets sold out of 5894. (40%)

1 showing of 421 seats is very close to being sold-out. A ton of tickets were sold on the last 24 hours.

 

[Iceman]

Other markets where the movie opens today.

25th October - Belgium, Netherlands, France, Italy, Philippines, South Korea, Colombia...

Underlined those countries that normally have a bigger turn out at the box office.

Do you know if Thor is popular in South Korea?

 

[HammerDown]

Do you know if Thor is popular in South Korea?

I would say it is popular taking into account that Thor: TDW made 21M over there. And i say this because Thor: TDW was nowhere near the kind of spectacle Thor Ragnarok seems to be, with the style, action, characters... It's a much more flashy and "powerful" look. I think Thor Ragnarok will most likely greatly increase it's BO results in that market.

GOTG2 - 20M
Doctor Strange - 41M
Spider-Man: HC - 51M

These we're the last Marvel movies to be released in that market. So i think Thor Ragnarok could very well do a decent jump in it's BO returns over there. If Tom Hiddleston pulled this off once again in South Korea then i would see the BO doubling for TR. t:

[YT]B9uJMDNNF_o[/YT]

 

[Iceman]

Haha, never seen that. Cool moves, we might have to draft him in again.

Dr Strange numbers seem doable then at least given how much more visually impressive this film is.

 

[ludovica]

Ladies LOVE Hemsworth and Hiddleston here in Korea.

 

[HammerDown]

Ladies LOVE Hemsworth and Hiddleston here in Korea.

How is the marketing over there? And the general audience awareness in relation to the movie? Do you think it's something the South Korean audience would rally behind?

 

[ludovica]

How is the marketing over there? And the general audience awareness in relation to the movie? Do you think it's something the South Korean audience would rally behind?

I expect it will perform as the heavy hitters here (Cap, Tony, Spidey).
In Korea when they push a movie you can not take public transportations in Seoul without seeing banners in every wagon and on one out of three/four busses, as is the case with Ragnarok.
Unfortunately I do not watch tv, so I have no idea on that front.

Like GOTG, Ragnarok does not translate perfectly, but it is more action packed so I think it will compensate well enough.

 

[HammerDown]

Ok thanks. We should know how it impacts that particular market soon with the first BO results and the first international opening weekend count.