Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[Krystal]

Not in the USA

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Right. So I checked and the worst 1st Wednesday to 2nd Wednesday MCU drop was -56.6%
the best was -41.3%

Ragnarok made $6,148,000m last Wednesday -- if it falls-- -56.6% or more(@$2,668,000) would you agree that it's an unsettling trend?

If it fell close to -50% -- I'd probably calm down and say, "Yeah, Tuesday was a bump in the road."

So we'll see in 24 hours. My glass half full feeling is this movie doesn't have great legs in this country and it doesn't have anything to do with JL.

But it's Worldwide is going to be big regardless because that's already in the bank.

I think it has everything to do with JL. I know my group just bought our JL tickets today. Aren't most geek fans going to be doing the same? Our money can only go to one movie at a time. There is a reason why these movies try to find dates with no competition in their genre after all.

 

[Tymminator]

What a great past year for Marvel

All 4 movies (Doctor Strange, GOGT2, Homecoming and Ragnarok) doing so well for stand-alone non-ensemble movies, all on relatively modest budget (<200 Mil) and all 4 being well received critically

VERY true, but Dr Strange was released last year.

 

[Krystal]

I think it has everything to do with JL. I know my group just bought our JL tickets today. Aren't most geek fans going to be doing the same? Our money can only go to one movie at a time. There is a reason why these movies try to find dates with no competition in their genre after all.

Yeah, except the decline appears to be happening BEFORE JL is released.
We will see what happens Wednesday -- which is the last day before JL will be available to divert tickets from Thor.

 

[spider-neil]

JL was always going to hurt TR. Disney should have moved the Thor release date forward by two weeks. This would have given Thor a month of no competition. I think a reason Spider-Man had great legs (880m WW) is it had no competition (save PotA) for weeks.

 

[Krystal]

Once again I am referring to this week before JL opens. If Wednesday and Thursday show a steeper than usual decline it will have nothing to do with competition.
Ragnarok's Tuesday to Tuesday drop was the largest ofa ny MCU movie -- 17th.
JL didn't affect TR on Tuesday.

 

[spider-neil]

JL didn't affect TR on Tuesday.

Pre-orders?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It does seem to be tailing off rather quickly. Still, I don’t think $300 million domestic is in danger yet.

 

[gerrym51]

It does seem to be tailing off rather quickly. Still, I don’t think $300 million domestic is in danger yet.

i find it hard to believe such a well reviewed movie will not hit 300 million

 

[Darepool]

Hard to believe like Homecoming?

 

[Krystal]

I kind of agree with all of you guys......

I believe it should have opened a week earlier in US and Canada -- not because of JL but because I think it's dumb to have it (and spoilers) out for nearly 2 weeks outside the US. I can't see how that helps. October 27 would have been better than Nov 3.

I also think it is tailing off quickly -- Wednesday's numbers will be interesting.


I would also be surprised if it doesn't make $300 with all the school days off and holidays between now and January 2 (or whenever school resumes next year.) But the talk of it matching the $334 of SM:H looks to be a dream at this point.

 

[Flemm]

Marvel movies tend to be quite front-loaded, even if the quality is good. The bulk of the audience is there right at the beginning.

Homecoming held well after the first couple of weeks, but I think that had a lot to do with the movie being very kid and family-friendly in the late summer, with not a lot of competition for that audience (and not much competition of any kind in August).

It's also hard to compare with the Marvel movies in the early May slot, since that is the Iron Man/Avengers slot. Those movies have been putting up big numbers for years.

The Dark World and Doctor Strange are the only two Marvel studios November releases I can think of, and Ragnarok is far out-pacing those.

It's going to put up a great number overall, even if it does taper off a little more quickly that one would ideally want.

 

[Darepool]

I kind of agree with all of you guys......

I believe it should have opened a week earlier in US and Canada -- not because of JL but because I think it's dumb to have it (and spoilers) out for nearly 2 weeks outside the US. I can't see how that helps. October 27 would have been better than Nov 3.

I also think it is tailing off quickly -- Wednesday's numbers will be interesting.


I would also be surprised if it doesn't make $300 with all the school days off and holidays between now and January 2 (or whenever school resumes next year.) But the talk of it matching the $334 of SM:H looks to be a dream at this point.

It will be the most successful Thor film by a large margin, critically and box office wise. By every measure it's a huge success and positions this franchise in a great place moving forward. I'm more then satisfied at this point.

 

[Darepool]

Marvel movies tend to be quite front-loaded, even if the quality is good. The bulk of the audience is there right at the beginning.

Homecoming held well after the first couple of weeks, but I think that had a lot to do with the movie being very kid and family-friendly in the late summer, with not a lot of competition for that audience (and not much competition of any kind in August).

It's also hard to compare with the Marvel movies in the early May slot, since that is the Iron Man/Avengers slot. Those movies have been putting up big numbers for years.

The Dark World and Doctor Strange are the only two Marvel studios November releases I can think of, and Ragnarok is far out-pacing those.

It's going to put up a great number overall, even if it does taper off a little more quickly that one would ideally want.

Most blockbusters 'tend' to be front loaded.

 

[Krystal]

"Outpacing" -- yes it opened much bigger.

But it is also falling faster. The largest MCU 1st Tuesday to 2nd Tuesday drop --17th place is a fact. That's a measure against itself -- not the other movies.

Like the man said, it rebounds on Wednesday -- then it was just a blip, but if has another bad drop from it's 1st to 2nd Wednesday -- it's kind if fizzling out. Starting Friday everybody can just blame JL.

It will help that it will be in theaters for the rest of the year with very few tent-pole movies as competition.

 

[Krystal]

It will be the most successful Thor film by a large margin, critically and box office wise. By every measure it's a huge success and positions this franchise in a great place moving forward. I'm more then satisfied at this point.

That is already a given. I am sure Thor fans are as gratified as we are. I just wanted to see it have a long run like SM:H did. Greedy I am.

 

[Flemm]

Most blockbusters 'tend' to be front loaded.

Yeah, to a point, but there are different scenarios.

Sometimes a movie will take the audience by surprise a bit, which leads to the box office being less front-loaded. The first Guardians movie. Wonder Woman.

And sometimes very front-loaded movies are that way because the audience doesn't like them much.

But with a lot of the Marvel movies, everybody is simply there at the start, because of the assumption that the quality is going to be high.

So Ragnarok tapering off fairly quickly for a couple of weeks would not really be a sign of anything negative at all.

There was some panic during Homecoming's second weekend, but the big drop for that weekend didn't mean a whole lot. That's another recent example.

 

[Krystal]

Hate to pile on but Ragnarok may rebound if JL underperforms badly. I know JL will have a huge opening week, but it may really drop off fast.

 

[metaphysician]

Haha, I just now noticed that 3 people on this forum actually voted for Ragnarok making less than $400M...

Be fair, some of them might have accidentally thought "domestic".

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I think it will hold good over the holiday next week. SMH second weekend dropoff scared me but it rebounded in it's 3rd weekend. Thor will be fine.


Anyone have Wednesday's numbers?

 

[Iceman]

It will be the most successful Thor film by a large margin, critically and box office wise. By every measure it's a huge success and positions this franchise in a great place moving forward. I'm more then satisfied at this point.

Yeah, after TDW this has been a big improvement in every possible way.

 

[gerrym51]

Hard to believe like Homecoming?

didnt homecoming do 340 million?

 

[Krystal]

Tuesday's numbers came in a about 4:30 ET yesterday.

 

[iEquinox]

It's a highly anticipated superhero sequel, so of course it's going to be frontloaded to degree. It doesn't even need to hit $300M to have the 3rd best legs out of all 8 MCU sequels.

It's not like it would be a disaster if it doesn't make it to $300M(it probably will btw, don't get me wrong). $250M would have been fine for this movie as well.

Legs are at least decent. It already opened to big numbers domestically. OS numbers are huge. It's already the highest grossing Thor movie domestically, OS and worldwide. It's already very successful financially and it's still going, and it also has great reviews/WOM. There's literally nothing to be worried about here lol

These overreactions based on pretty much nothing are funny though. I'm sure the ~60% drop next weekend is going to cause even more of them, even though anyone could have seen it coming since the movie was first announced in 2014 and it's completely normal and not something to be worried about.

Reminds me of the Homecoming box office thread and the overreactions after the 2nd weekend drop(which pretty much guaranteed it would reach $300M). Good times.

 

[iEquinox]

Tuesday's numbers came in a about 4:30 ET yesterday.

It actually came in at 2:51 ET yesterday.