Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[Iceman]

$300m is still a great figure for solo films.

 

[iEquinox]

$300m is still a great figure for solo films.

Especially if the previous two did $181M and $206M lol

 

[TheVileOne]

Justice League isn't going to hurt Thor: Ragnarok at all. Thor was already No. 1 for two straight weekends. It dropped below 54 percent in its second weekend. For a movie like this, that's good business. It's already made $660 million worldwide and $220 million domestic.

Not to mention, the Thanksgiving weekend is still ahead. I could easily see this surpassing $300 million domestic and higher at this point. For a freaking Thor movie, that's spectacular.

To put things in perspective. Spider-Man, SPIDER-MAN for Spider-Man: Homecoming had a lower opening weekend than Ragnarok. Not only that, Homecoming had a BIGGER drop in its second weekend than Ragnarok did.

My point is, any "damage" that Justice League does to Thor: Ragnarok at this point is irrelevant. Thor has made most of its money and everything from here on out is gravy, and it will end with a strong showing domestically and worldwide.

Yeah Thor will probably have a significant drop for its third frame. But let's say Thor is only $227 million going into its third weekend. I highly doubt it drops like 60 to 70 percent. It will likely surpass $250 million this weekend.

 

[Krystal]

It's not an overreaction. It is simply a statement of the numbers.

TR is a huge hit. It outperformed the 2 previous instalments both domestic and overseas. Unlike some CBMs it doesn't have an overblown $220+ million budget to make up. No one s claiming anything else.

It had a mediocre 2nd Monday and the weakest 2nd Tuesday in relation to it's 1st Tuesday of all 17 MCU movies. People hoping for a SMH long run are likely to be unhappy if the trend continues. I have no doubt it will make $300 because it has many weeks ahead of it. But what SMH did was kind of rare and we can expect that to happen often.

I am hoping Wednesday rebounds. We'll know in a couple of hours....

 

[TheVileOne]

It's not an overreaction. It is simply a statement of the numbers.

TR is a huge hit. It outperformed the 2 previous instalments both domestic and overseas. Unlike some CBMs it doesn't have an overblown $220+ million budget to make up. No one s claiming anything else.

It had a mediocre 2nd Monday and the weakest 2nd Tuesday in relation to it's 1st Tuesday of all 17 MCU movies. People hoping for a SMH long run are likely to be unhappy if the trend continues. I have no doubt it will make $300 because it has many weeks ahead of it. But what SMH did was kind of rare and we can expect that to happen often.

I am hoping Wednesday rebounds. We'll know in a couple of hours....

Maybe it doesn't finish with $334 million like Homecoming, but Thanksgiving will let it have a nice boost. It's probably going to finish with a heftier domestic total than The Dark World.

 

[Krystal]

It already passed Dark World in unadjusted dollars.

In adjusted dollars Thor made $200 (in 2017 dollars) and TDW made $225 in 2017 dollars.

So it blew them away in under 14 days.

 

[Iceman]

Especially if the previous two did $181M and $206M lol

Yes, big markup there. Not many franchises will show that kind of domestic box office improvement without external factors helping.

 

[iEquinox]

$2,919,452 on Wednesday. 52.5% drop from last Wednesday.

http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2017/11/15

 

[iEquinox]

It's not an overreaction. It is simply a statement of the numbers.

TR is a huge hit. It outperformed the 2 previous instalments both domestic and overseas. Unlike some CBMs it doesn't have an overblown $220+ million budget to make up. No one s claiming anything else.

It had a mediocre 2nd Monday and the weakest 2nd Tuesday in relation to it's 1st Tuesday of all 17 MCU movies. People hoping for a SMH long run are likely to be unhappy if the trend continues. I have no doubt it will make $300 because it has many weeks ahead of it. But what SMH did was kind of rare and we can expect that to happen often.

I am hoping Wednesday rebounds. We'll know in a couple of hours....

Concluding from a single Tuesday-Tuesday drop that a movie is "tailing off quickly" sounds a lot like an overreaction in my book.

Like I said yesterday:

Look at the Wednesday-Wednesday drop tomorrow. You'll say "oh that's pretty good, false alarm". Then, on Thursday, the drop from last week will be big again, and you'll go back to saying it's a "bad trend" again. It never ends.

My point is: Don't read too much into a singe daily number. Look at how it's doing overall. Box office numbers are affected by so many factors, there's always going to be some fluctuations there. Try not to overreact to them.

The Thursday-Thursday drop of over 60% that's coming tomorrow is also no reason to start worrying again.

 

[warriorking]

Its still on track to bring in another 26 Million or more for the weekend...
And next week the kids will be off from school..
So its still in a good position to break 300 Million or more when all is said and done...
Its just going to be a slow process...
I would be more worried if I were a DC fan, JL has many people nervous at this point...
And the latest Rotten tomato Score ...Ouch!!!!!

 

[iEquinox]

Its still on track to bring in another 26 Million or more for the weekend...
And next week the kids will be off from school..
So its still in a good position to break 300 Million or more when all is said and done...
Its just going to be a slow process...

$26M+? Really don't see it going that high. But yeah, $300M is still looking likely imo. Thanksgiving will give it a good boost.

 

[Krystal]

That's a little worse than the average MCU drop but not the worst. It assures that it will break DWs adjusted gross by tomorrow and if it makes $25 this weekend it can cross $250. That would be nice.

 

[Krystal]

It had a fairly weak Monday, a bad Tuesday and a fairly weak Wednesday. In comparison to the majority of MCU it's tailing off kind of quickly. Not the way a one week wonder movie tails off -- like a well received hit movie tails off.
It could rebound -- especialy on weekend #4 which is a holiday and if JL REALLY drops off quickly. I can't imagine what the 1st to 2nd weekend numbers might be for JL -- but it could be ugly.
From Thanksgiving to SW it has good room to make money and then the last 2 weeks of holiday break after SW. It's in a good position to get past $300 which will be great.

 

[iEquinox]

It had a fairly weak Monday, a bad Tuesday and a fairly weak Wednesday. In comparison to the majority of MCU it's tailing off kind of quickly. Not the way a one week wonder movie tails off -- like a well received hit movie tails off.
It could rebound -- especialy on weekend #4 which is a holiday and if JL REALLY drops off quickly. I can't imagine what the 1st to 2nd weekend numbers might be for JL -- but it could be ugly.
From Thanksgiving to SW it has good room to make money and then the last 2 weeks of holiday break after SW. It's in a good position to get past $300 which will be great.

Tuesday really wasn't that bad. Last Tuesday was inflated a bit, so obviously the Tuesday-Tuesday drop would be bigger than usual this week as a result. That's why I knew it the week on week drop would be better on Wednesday. And that's how I know it'll be a lot worse again on Thursday.

And like I said before, this is a sequel. Sequels are a inherently more frontloaded than non-sequels. Only the leggiest MCU sequel(TWS) had legs as good as the average MCU movie. "Tailing off quickly" suggests it's tailing off more quickly than expected. But that is not the case if you're comparing it to the other MCU sequels. Comparing a sequel to an original movie is going to make the sequel look like it's tailing off more quickly in the vast majority of cases.

And Ragnarok is not only a sequel, it's a threequel. Getting MCU average legs would have been great, but it was always going to be an uphill battle even with great reception. There's a reason why the 2 previous MCU threequels were the 2 most frontloaded MCU movies so far.

 

[HammerDown]

Domestic = 223M
Foreign = 440M
Worldwide = 663M

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel2017.htm

 

[iEquinox]

That's a little worse than the average MCU drop but not the worst. It assures that it will break DWs adjusted gross by tomorrow and if it makes $25 this weekend it can cross $250. That would be nice.

It would be nice, but I wouldn't expect it to make $25M. I'm hoping it can get $23M myself, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a little lower either.

 

[Iceman]

$700m up soon!

 

[TheVileOne]

Any weak week days don't even really matter because the movie is breaking all the previous milestones and benchmarks set by the Thor series.

 

[Krystal]

It's funny how people feel the need to repeat that it is beating the previous Thor movies. Pretty sure there is nobody coming to this thread unaware of that fact.
I think the reviews and the great opening gave a few of us the hope it would do even better still than the other threequels dids. I get all the reasons why it can't do what WW did -- but there's always that hope. WW had tremendous legs and SMH had good legs. Was just hoping TR would have better than average legs.
Average legs for a movie that opened $122 is still pretty damn good.

 

[HammerDown]

Looking at a second place finish is thor: Ragnarok as it should approach, if not top, $250 million by end of day sunday. The big question is just how much of a chunk out of thor's weekend will go to justice league? Ragnarok isn't losing any theaters this weekend and typically we might expect a drop around 43% or so, but given the entrance of justice league into the picture we're anticipating a drop closer to 54% and a three-day around $26 million.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on friday morning with thursday night preview results followed by friday estimates on saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on sunday morning.

Thor: Ragnarok (4,080 theaters) - $26.3 m

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4345

 

[iEquinox]

It's funny how people feel the need to repeat that it is beating the previous Thor movies. Pretty sure there is nobody coming to this thread unaware of that fact.

Sometimes it seems like they are unaware. People are coming in saying they would actually be surprised if a Thor movie doesn't pass $300M, or hoping for $400M+. I've even read comments saying they were actually expecting $400M+ at least and even showing signs of disappointment that it's not reaching those goals.

So it looks like they do need to be reminded that this is not an Avengers movie, and that's why people point out how much the last few Thor movies made, and that this suggests that IM3/CW numbers were never even a remotely realistic target. And also that being disappointed about it not reaching them is a bit silly, considering...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4345

Boxofficemojo is overpredicting it again, I see. Not even a mention of the holiday last weekend either. You'd think them being way off with their $61M+ prediction after last Friday number came in would have reminded them of it, but I guess not...

Would be great if it comes true, of course, but again... realistic targets and all that... this doesn't seem to be one of them.

 

[Krystal]

$23 should get it to $250

 

[iEquinox]

$23 should get it to $250

Surely that would put it just below $249M after Sunday? Making it to $250M after $23M this weekend mean it needs over $3.8M on Thursday, and the Thursday number should be over $1M lower than that.

 

[HammerDown]

International comparison.

Overseas ---- TR ------ GOTG2 ----- SM:HC

China -------- 100M ----- 100M ------ 116.2M
U.K. ---------- 34.1 ------ 53 --------- 39.5
Korea -------- 32.3 ------ 20.9 ------- 51.5
Brazil -------- 24.4 ------ 20.9 ------- 31.8
Australia ---- 20.2 ------ 24.6 -------- 19.7
France ------ 17.7 ------- 24.8 ------- 18.7
Mexico ------ 16.9 ------- 19 ---------- 27
Russia ------ 16.5 ------- 27.8 -------- 16.3
Germany ---- 13.3 ------ 30.1 -------- 11.6
Indonesia --- 11.2 ------ 7.6 --------- 12.3
India -------- 9.8 -------- 3.4 --------- 11.4
Italy --------- 9.6 -------- 7.9 -------- 10.1
Taiwan ------- 9.4 ------- 4.7 --------- 9.6
Spain -------- 8.9 ------- 10.3 ------- 11.9
Philipines ---- 7.8 ------- 6.3 --------- 7.5
Malaysia ----- 7.1 ------- 5.3 --------- 6.7
Japan -------- 7 --------- 10 ---------- 25.3

Totals:
Spider-Man: Homecoming - 545M
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 473M
Thor Ragnarok - 440M *

*Only 2 to 3 weeks into it's run.

 

[iEquinox]

International comparison.

Overseas ---- TR ------ GOTG2 ----- SM:HC

China -------- 100M ----- 100M ------ 116.2M
U.K. ---------- 34.1 ------ 53 --------- 39.5
Korea -------- 32.3 ------ 20.9 ------- 51.5
Brazil -------- 24.4 ------ 20.9 ------- 31.8
Australia ---- 20.2 ------ 24.6 -------- 19.7
France ------ 17.7 ------- 24.8 ------- 18.7
Mexico ------ 16.9 ------- 19 ---------- 27
Russia ------ 16.5 ------- 27.8 -------- 16.3
Germany ---- 13.3 ------ 30.1 -------- 11.6
Indonesia --- 11.2 ------ 7.6 --------- 12.3
India -------- 9.8 -------- 3.4 --------- 11.4
Italy --------- 9.6 -------- 7.9 -------- 10.1
Taiwan ------- 9.4 ------- 4.7 --------- 9.6
Spain -------- 8.9 ------- 10.3 ------- 11.9
Philipines ---- 7.8 ------- 6.3 --------- 7.5
Malaysia ----- 7.1 ------- 5.3 --------- 6.7
Japan -------- 7 --------- 10 ---------- 25.3

Totals:
Spider-Man: Homecoming - 545M
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 473M
Thor Ragnarok - 440M *

*Only 2 to 3 weeks into it's run.

The international performance has been really good. I was hoping for a similar increase from TDW as GotG2 got over GotG(which had similar exchange rate problems), with a nice boost from China to push it past the $500M OS mark, and it looks like those hopes will be realised.

It's fighting some big differences in exchange rates compared to TDW, TDW's OS number would have been about $360M at today's ER. To go from that to $500M+ is very impressive, especially since - unlike GotG2 - the previous instalment was seen as one of the weakest entries in the MCU. Adding Hulk, the great trailers, and the great reception have definitely been major factors in making these numbers happen.