Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[HammerDown]

I would like to see Marvel making a big push in China. It's a massive market over there and it could have a very big impact on the WW results if things are presented and marketed right. Hopefully something special will be made in terms of marketing for that market in particular.

 

[HammerDown]

Update to the amount of IMAX tickets sold in the theatre near me. 2 days before release.

Opening day / Friday - 974 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (46% of tickets.)
Saturday - 928 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (44%)
Sunday - 450 tickets sold out of 1684 available. (27%)

Opening Weekend totals: 2352 IMAX tickets sold out of 5894. (40%)

Update to the amount of IMAX tickets sold in the theatre near me. 1 day before release.

Opening day / Friday - 1120 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (53% of tickets.)
Saturday - 1037 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (49%)
Sunday - 569 tickets sold out of 1684 available. (34%)

Opening Weekend totals: 2726 IMAX tickets sold out of 5894. (46%)

 

[iEquinox]

Numbers from South Korea from http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/jsp/new...searchTo=Oct-25-2017&category=ALL&country=ALL

Thor: Ragnarok opened on Culture Day(which is every last Wednesday of the month in South Korea), so there were many discounts. That's why the amount in dollars is lower than GotG2, while admissions is pretty much the same on opening day.

Thor: Ragnarok:
Opening day:
$2,295,431 (415,318 admissions)
Day 2:
$1,513,285 (217,723 admissions)
2-Day total: $3,849,069 (636,598 admissions)

Doctor Strange(it had previews the day before, Ragnarok didn't)
$2,536,298 (435,068 admissions)
Day 2:
$1,715,538 (228,451 admissions)
2-day total: $5,181,137 (782,065 admissions)
Final Total: $41.3M

GotG2(Higher ticket price because there were no discounts, and it was inflated by holiday, which makes this a very bad comparison):
$3,288,999 (422,412 admissions)
Day 2:
$1,887,364 (269,106 admissions)
2-Day total: $6,276,096 (840,007 admissions)
Final total: $20.9M

Doctor Strange would have been an ideal comparison(it also opened on the last Wednesday of November last year), but Doctor Strange had previews the day before while Ragnarok didn't. It is obviously still by far a better comparison than GotG2(don't use GotG2 as a comp, I only included it to show the difference in ticket price). Ragnarok seems to be at a slight disadvantage compared to Doctor Strange.

If it follows Doctor Strange's drops from day 2 forward, it would end just over $35M. Doctor Strange did have pretty good legs, so it remains to be seen if Ragnarok can match that. Just based on these numbers $30-35M seems to be a realistic first target for Ragnarok in South Korea. That would be a healthy increase from The Dark World's $21.1M ($19.8M at today's exchange rates).

Breakdowns after the weekend numbers are in should give a more accurate picture for this market. Doctor Strange made $18M in total after its first Sunday (GotG2 was at $13M). If Ragnarok follows Doctor Strange's exact drops(which would keep it on pace for about $35M), it would be at $15.5M in South Korea after Sunday.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I would like to see Marvel making a big push in China. It's a massive market over there and it could have a very big impact on the WW results if things are presented and marketed right. Hopefully something special will be made in terms of marketing for that market in particular.

Personally I think this thing is shaping up to be the highest grossing MCU film ever in China.

 

[Iceman]

Personally I think this thing is shaping up to be the highest grossing MCU film ever in China.

What is the current record?

 

[BigThor]

Personally I think this thing is shaping up to be the highest grossing MCU film ever in China.

What makes you think that?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

0_o Huh?? Ragnarok for the title of the highest grossing CBM in China??

AoU is at No 1 when it comes to the highest grossing CBM in China at the moment with 240 million and I think that record isn't going down for a long time unless the 2 IW movies break the bank over there because those are the only movies with any chance of making that happen in the foreseeable future. And CW is at the 2nd place with 180 million. GOTG and Ant-Man is a good comp for Ragnarok to achieve (95-105) million.

Ragnarok's current trends and pre-sales with one week to go will give an OW around 35 million but that's almost worst case scenario. Sales will pick up in the next few days. At he moment (50-55) million seems like a good target for Ragnarok on OW. But an OW in the (55-60) million range may not be out of the equation yet.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

150 million OW for Raganrok is nowhere near as far fetched as IT's OW.

I'll eat crow if Ragnarok opens above 135 million but I think it kinda is (the bolded part). 'IT' was in a better position or we can say that 'IT' was more primed for a breakout than an MCU sequel or three-quel. The only MCU movies with a breakout possibility at the moment are BP and Cap Marvel and I mean for the OW as well as the final total (legs and multipliers).

 

[The Endless]

120 million OW would be great for Thor. I think it makes 750-850 When all is said and done.

 

[russian gal]

Take Russia for example. The Dark World made about 117.5M Russian Rubles in 2013. That was $35.7M in 2013, but at today's exchange rates, it's $20.4M. That's $15M+ gone, and that's from just one market.

Hopefully these disadvantages will be balanced out by significant growth from The Dark World in local currencies and a bigger take from China.

yep to match TDW will be hard but I still have hope it can at least get to 30m here (GOTG2 made 28) & beat it & The Fate of the Furious as well.

Really mad that it opens later than other Euro countries this time btw
In 2013 I had already watched TDW 4 times before it opened in USt:

Whats good is that DC isnt very popular here & JL maybe not be a formidable foe at the BO (but its a team up movie so it may play better than WW & other DC movies that gross way less than Marvel aside from Suicide squad)

Voted in the poll for $700 to 800 million
Seems reasonable

 

[iEquinox]

Personally I think this thing is shaping up to be the highest grossing MCU film ever in China.

Age of Ultron made $240M in China, and its presales were on a whole other level. I'd be very happy if Ragnarok can make half of Age of Ultron in China. Even a third wouldn't really be bad.

The last Thor movie was (by far) the lowest grossing MCU movie in China in the last 6 years with $55M. All other MCU movies in the last 6 years(except Civil War) have made $85-120M in China. If Ragnarok comes in in that range as well, that would be great.

 

[HammerDown]

Other markets where the movie opens today.

27th October - Sweden, Spain, Norway, Bulgaria, South Africa…

And that basically rounds up 50% of the markets worldwide. Next week starting on Tuesday starts the rollout for the remaining 50%.

 

[FunkMiller]

You know, this could challenge Justice League’s total box office. The word of mouth is going to be fantastic.

 

[HammerDown]

The last Thor movie was (by far) the lowest grossing MCU movie in China in the last 6 years with $55M. All other MCU movies in the last 6 years(except Civil War) have made $85-120M in China. If Ragnarok comes in in that range as well, that would be great.

Thor: TDW grossed 55M in China. I fully expect Thor Ragnarok to totally blow that number out of the water. Like you said between 85 - 120M total gross in China sounds about right to me.

 

[Iceman]

Thor: TDW grossed 55M in China. I fully expect Thor Ragnarok to totally blow that number out of the water. Like you said between 85 - 120M total gross in China sounds about right to me.

Just the difference in China could mean a significant improvement on the overall box office. Looking forward to seeing those numbers.

 

[HammerDown]

Just the difference in China could mean a significant improvement on the overall box office. Looking forward to seeing those numbers.

Exactly. I think it will probably end up having a 40M+ improvement over T:TDW just in China. There's going to be a big jump for sure.

Totals in China:

Spider - Man: HC - 116M
Doctor Strange - 109M
GOTG 2 - 100M

 

[jmc]

You know, this could challenge Justice League’s total box office. The word of mouth is going to be fantastic.

It's going to be much closer than what people think IMO. My theatre was laughing constantly, in all seriousness I can't recall the last time I heard so much laughter watching any movie in the cinema, let alone a superhero film.

 

[Iceman]

Exactly. I think it will probably end up having a 40M+ improvement over T:TDW just in China. There's going to be a big jump for sure.

Totals in China:

Spider - Man: HC - 116M
Doctor Strange - 109M
GOTG 2 - 100M

I hope it can get to GotG2 numbers there. They're both fun cosmic romps and Ragnarok has better action.

 

[metaphysician]

You know, this could challenge Justice League’s total box office. The word of mouth is going to be fantastic.

If by "challenge" you mean "notably exceed". . .

Thor has a lot more going for it right now than JL. I put at least 75% odds that Thor will do better.

 

[HammerDown]

It's going to be much closer than what people think IMO. My theatre was laughing constantly, in all seriousness I can't recall the last time I heard so much laughter watching any movie in the cinema, let alone a superhero film.

This is one major thing that builds strong word of mouth. People having a blast at the theatre, having that communal feeling of enjoying something together with a lot of other people and leaving the theatre with a sense of joy and happiness is always a great thing.

 

[iEquinox]

I'm just hoping people don't overreact when Ragnarok drops ~60% on its third domestic weekend. It's expected, normal and not something anyone should get worried/worked up about.

 

[iEquinox]

‘Thor: Ragnarok’s On With $28M Offshore Through Thursday – International Box Office

UPDATE, FRIDAY: Adding 18 material offshore markets on Thursday, Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok has lifted its early international box office cume to $28M. That brings the play to 28 markets thus far and includes several industry-best October openings. That’s the case in Australia where the Taika Waititi-helmed refresh on the series started with $2M including previews ($1.4M sans).

Elsewhere, Brazil got its Hulk on with $1.6M and 89% market share — again an October best. Same goes for Malaysia ($600K opening/$1M with previews) and New Zealand ($200K/$400K with previews). In the Netherlands, the Chris Hemsworth-starrer hammered out $300K ($400K with previews) for the 2nd biggest October opening day ever behind only Spectre. Overall, the film is No. 1 in all markets save Italy where IT is currently tops after a record-breaking launch last frame.

These mid-week openings are providing an early glimpse of what’s to come at the weekend. Thor 3 is running ahead of Doctor Strange which bowed at the same time last year. It’s also substantially ahead of the last film in the series, Thor: The Dark World. Once the weekend dials in, the position versus comps (ie Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 which opened on a Friday) will be much cleaner and clearer.

The Top 5 hubs on Ragnarok through Thursday are the UK ($6.7M), Korea ($3.8M — unofficial reports out of the market have it at $6.2M through today, Friday), France ($3M), Australia ($2M) and Taiwan ($1.7M).

Today adds Spain, Iceland, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Turkey and Vietnam. That’s all ahead of the domestic bow next session when China and Japan also open.

http://deadline.com/2017/10/thor-ragnarok-opening-international-box-office-1202195342/

 

[Tymminator]

I'm just hoping people don't overreact when Ragnarok drops ~60% on its third domestic weekend. It's expected, normal and not something anyone should get worried/worked up about.

Of course they are going to.

 

[Iceman]

These numbers will mean a lot more once we have a weekend involved, and that much more when we have a US domestic weekend. Still a long time go for that though.

 

[HammerDown]

Box Office Pro increased TR projections.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

Thor: Ragnarok‘s strong reviews and marketing continue to impress, while traditional tracking has reportedly (but unconfirmed) now pegged it for a debut north of $120 million. Still, with Twitter activity closely mirroring that of Doctor Strange and trailing Spider-Man: Homecoming, we’re a bit more cautious with our increased forecasts this week.

OW - 109M // DOM - 280M

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-jumanji-welcome-jungle-pitch-perfect-3-downsizing-father-figures/