Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[HammerDown]

Can't help but smile at how well the film is doing with the both the critics and now the fans at the box office. Still don't think we know how big this film could be on OW in the US.

Hopefully it can be a massive hit OW because it has a ton of great things going for it.

 

[Iceman]

We need it do surprisingly big numbers to force Marvel's hand with regard to a Thor 4.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Equinox-Disney says Ragnorak is 4 percent ahead of same markets as GOTG2.

That 4% is from 52% of the OS market share. It still has some big markets like China, Japan, Germany and Mexico (I'm probably missing a few other big ones). A simple 4% increase on Vol 2's OS take gives Ragnarok 492.6 million. But I think Ragnarok will do better and cross 515 million.

Also we hafta remember that POTC5 opened in GOTG's 5th weekend of OS box office but JL will open in Ragnarok's 4th weekend. So JL can possibly do more damage to Ragnarok than what POTC5 did to GOTG2. Not sure about the extent of it tho.

Does it have a chance to do 1 biilion since GOTG2 hit slightly less than 900 million?

No. The absolute ceiling for the domestic take is around 350 million IMO.

I think at best Ragnarok can open to 132 million and it's best case scenario legs will probably be close to 2.66 (MCU average). So the final domestic total will be 351.2 million. So the world-wide figure becomes [351.2+515] = 866 million.

 

[iEquinox]

Equinox-Disney says Ragnorak is 4 percent ahead of same markets as GOTG2.

Does it have a chance to do 1 biillion since GOTG2 hit slightly less than 900 million?

Don't think it has a realistic shot at a billion. While it might beat GotG2 in foreign markets, I'm not expecting it to beat GotG2's domestic take ($390M). I'm just hoping it can do $800M+ worldwide. Next weekend we'll know more when we have domestic and OS numbers(China is key for OS).

 

[gerrym51]

Don't think it has a realistic shot at a billion. While it might beat GotG2 in foreign markets, I'm not expecting it to beat GotG2's domestic take ($390M). I'm just hoping it can do $800M+ worldwide. Next weekend we'll know more when we have domestic and OS numbers(China is key for OS).

How can it not do at least 400 million domestic?

 

[iEquinox]

How can it not do at least 400 million domestic?

You think $400M domestic should be the floor for a Thor movie when the last 2 didn't make that much combined? I'm expecting it to increase nicely from TDW, but $400M is really pushing it and I don't think anyone is expecting it to go that high.

 

[Iceman]

That's still a ****load of money domestically, especially for a solo.

 

[Iceman]

Don't think it has a realistic shot at a billion. While it might beat GotG2 in foreign markets, I'm not expecting it to beat GotG2's domestic take ($390M). I'm just hoping it can do $800M+ worldwide. Next weekend we'll know more when we have domestic and OS numbers(China is key for OS).

That's the thing. Even tracking above GotG overseas, doesn't take into account that that film was still very strong domestically so it's going to be very hard to finish significantly above it.

 

[BigThor]

No. The absolute ceiling for the domestic take is around 350 million IMO.

I think at best Ragnarok can open to 132 million and it's best case scenario legs will probably be close to 2.66 (MCU average). So the final domestic total will be 351.2 million. So the world-wide figure becomes [351.2+515] = 866 million.

 

[gerrym51]

You think $400M domestic should be the floor for a Thor movie when the last 2 didn't make that much combined? I'm expecting it to increase nicely from TDW, but $400M is really pushing it and I don't think anyone is expecting it to go that high.

This has Hulk in it. It is a super reviewed movie-exceeding Wonder woman and will have tremendous word of mouth.

How can it not make at least 400 million and over 900 million worldwide.

BvS the worst reviewed and terrible word of mouth did 330/870.

Reviews and word of mouth don't seem to matter one way or another anymore

 

[iEquinox]

This has Hulk in it. It is a super reviewed movie-exceeding Wonder woman and will have tremendous word of mouth.

How can it not make at least 400 million and over 900 million worldwide.

BvS the worst reviewed and terrible word of mouth did 330/870.

Reviews and word of mouth don't seem to matter one way or another anymore

And Civil War, which was a "super reviewed movie" as well, had Captain America, Iron Man, Spider-Man, Ant-Man, and basically every other avenger except Hulk and Thor in it, and it just managed to pass $400M domestic. Are Thor and Hulk more popular than all of those combined? I think you know the answer to that question.

And this is not BvS. This is not the first meeting of 2 of the top 3 most iconic and popular superheroes in the world. It's Thor and Hulk in the same movie for the 3rd time. Expectations for BvS were much higher than were it ended up, and reviews and word of mouth obviously matter.

Honest question, are you trolling? No offense, but your logic makes no sense to me.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

This has Hulk in it.

He may very well bring in some audience but let's not exaggerate his drawing capacity.

It is a super reviewed movie-exceeding Wonder woman and will have tremendous word of mouth.

Wonder Woman was the first movie for the character so it was primed for a breakout if the quality of the movie was considered very good by the GA. Thor: Ragnarok is a three-quel so it's amazing WoM will be counterbalanced by it's front-loaded nature. The best legs for an MCU follow up are 2.72 (TWS) and Vol 2 (2.66). DS achieved a 2.72 multiplier for an origin movie last year in the same slot. I was going with 2.66 in stead of 2.72 because Ragnarok is the third movie of an established franchise with big upfront demand.

How can it not make at least 400 million and over 900 million worldwide.

That 4% is from 52% of the OS market share. It still has some big markets like China, Japan, Germany and Mexico (I'm probably missing a few other big ones). A simple 4% increase on Vol 2's OS take gives Ragnarok 492.6 million. But I think Ragnarok will do better and cross 515 million.

I think at best Ragnarok can open to 132 million and it's best case scenario legs will probably be close to 2.66 (MCU average). So the final domestic total will be 351.2 million. So the world-wide figure becomes [351.2+515] = 866 million.

So even in the most optimistic scenario it's extremely difficult to see Raganrok going past 870 million.

BvS the worst reviewed and terrible word of mouth did 330/870.

BvS had tremendous pre-release hype so it's OW was huge and that accounts for a really big chunk of it's final total. BvS had atrocious legs but the OW basically gave it a buffer for it's bad multiplier.

Reviews and word of mouth don't seem to matter one way or another anymore.

Review and word of mouth will matter for Raganrok and it'll make sure that the 3rd installment of the Thor series ends on a high note. Ragnarok can potentially finish ahead 30% above TDW. Since it's gonna do much better in OS countries it's safe to assume that WoM will play a big part of it's growth as seeing how the ER is down from 2013.

 

[Iceman]

This has Hulk in it. It is a super reviewed movie-exceeding Wonder woman and will have tremendous word of mouth.

How can it not make at least 400 million and over 900 million worldwide.

BvS the worst reviewed and terrible word of mouth did 330/870.

Reviews and word of mouth don't seem to matter one way or another anymore

Noone was really expecting Ragnarok to be able to hang with BvS when these films were announced. The execution of the 2 has given Ragnarok a big advantage but it is still coming from a long way behind.

 

[iEquinox]

Noone was really expecting Ragnarok to be able to hang with BvS when these films were announced. The execution of the 2 has given Ragnarok a big advantage but it is still coming from a long way behind.

Yeah, if you even suggested that the 3rd Thor movie could have a slight chance of outgrossing BvS 2 years ago, people would have told you you were out of your mind.

 

[HammerDown]

Australia

Thor Goes Big

Thor: Ragnarok is on track to claim the second biggest opening weekend of the year. It's expected the Disney film will collect $10.14 million to put it ahead of Sony's Spider-Man: Homecoming on $10.13 million and behind stablemate Beauty and the Beast with $13.15 million. It clearly won the weekend over Sony's Blade Runner 2049 with $559k and Warner Bros' Geostorm on $497k.

https://numero.co/reports/2017/10/30/thor-goes-big

New Zealand

Record Breaking Weekend For Thor

Thor: Ragnarok recorded the biggest opening weekend of the year at the New Zealand box office. It collected $2.03 million to displace fellow Disney title Beauty and the Beast at the top of the list, which picked up $2.00 million on its opening weekend of release in April. Thor easily won the weekend over Bollywood film Golmaal Again on $106k and Fox's The Mountain Between Us with $85k.

https://numero.co/reports/2017/10/30/record-breaking-weekend-for-thor

 

[ultradog]

So what do people feel about the chances of Ragnarok beating Justice League domestically? It feels like they could both finish around $330M domestically, +/- 10%, which is a big range. If Ragnarok has an RT score of 95% and JL is Rotten at about 50%, I could see JL coming in 2nd place, which would be a major league bad beat for the DCEU.

 

[HammerDown]

So what do people feel about the chances of Ragnarok beating Justice League domestically? It feels like they could both finish around $330M domestically, +/- 10%, which is a big range. If Ragnarok has an RT score of 95% and JL is Rotten at about 50%, I could see JL coming in 2nd place, which would be a major league bad beat for the DCEU.

Better to discuss that here.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=528969&page=18

 

[iEquinox]

Australia

https://numero.co/reports/2017/10/30/thor-goes-big

New Zealand

https://numero.co/reports/2017/10/30/record-breaking-weekend-for-thor

Looking good there. Filming in Australia with 2 Australian actors and a Director from New Zealand can't have hurt its numbers in those 2 markets.

And just as an aside, these numbers are in Australian dollars and New Zealand dollars, not US dollars.

 

[HammerDown]

According to Deadline the first weekend international totals increased to 109.1M. 6% ahead of GOTG2.

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Thunders To $109M In Overseas Debut – International Box Office

MONDAY UPDATE, WRITETHRU with Disney actuals: Launching in about 52% of the world a week before entering the domestic arena, Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok hammered out a $109.1M international box office start this session. The strong debut on the Taika Waititi-helmed threequel was more muscular than the Sunday estimate of $107.6M. Through Sunday, it’s running 6% ahead of Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 and 24% above Doctor Strange when looking at the same suite of 36 material markets this frame, and using today’s exchange rates.

As we saw in early mid-week bows, the Chris Hemsworth-starrer posted the biggest October opening weekend in many markets and continued to do so as more were added through the frame. The film can boast No. 1s everywhere.

The top plays thus far are the UK ($16.2M), Korea ($15.7M), Australia ($8.4M), Brazil ($8.1M) and France ($7.7M). Europe made up the bulk of the increases between Sunday’s estimates and today’s full figures.

The overseas opening on the third pic in the god of thunder’s franchise was eyed at a range of $85M-$100M by industry sources ahead of the early non-traditional Tuesday UK opening. Most topped it out at $100M with one seeing anticipation high enough to push it past the century mark.

The comps also include Thor: The Dark World, and Thor 3 is 34% above that which is little surprise given the lighter tone of this refresh on the series. At current exchange rates Guardians Of The Galaxy 2, which bowed in April this year, finaled at $481M internationally while Doctor Strange earned $456M overseas after opening at this same time in 2016. Thor‘s got critical good will behind him as well as some runway ahead — there are school holidays in several plays and big markets still to come including China and the U.S. But, he’s also got Justice League beginning day-and-date on November 17.

In IMAX, Thor: Ragnarok delivered $6M on just 189 screens, a $31,500 per-screen average. That’s on par with IMAX opening results of GOTG2 in like-for-like markets.

Significant markets where the Crown Prince of Asgard and his friend from work, the Incredible Hulk, did not face-off this weekend include Germany, Russia, China, Japan and Mexico. They head to those hubs as well as North America and virtually all other territories this coming week.

 

[Filmfan93]

Wait, what?!

No one here is getting moderator warnings for bringing JL BO discussion in this Ragnarok BO thread, but i somehow got my first ever warning yesterday for bringing Ragnarok into the JL main discussion thread?

My warning was even labeled as trolling there (even though it wasn't) and somehow no one here gets warned for anything....

I just don't understand how issuing these warnings work.

 

[Iceman]

Wait, what?!

No one here is getting moderator warnings for bringing JL BO discussion in this Ragnarok BO thread, but i somehow got my first ever warning yesterday for bringing Ragnarok into the JL main discussion thread?

My warning was even labeled as trolling there (even though it wasn't) and somehow no one here gets warned for anything....

I just don't understand how issuing these warnings work.

How would you know that someone else hasn't got a warning unless you were them?

 

[Surfer]

According to Deadline the first weekend international totals increased to 109.1M. 6% ahead of GOTG2.

Great to hear that it went up another 1.5 Mil from the estimate, which was already much higher then expected. It's especially a great start when you consider Thor 2 was a little bit of a back slide in terms of quality, and sometimes that bad experience creates a disinterest and it can come back to bite the sequels that follow. So, glad to hear it is doing well.

Surfer

 

[HammerDown]

Most markets are giving really good numbers. But the one that surprised me the most is definitely South Korea which is a big market and turned in 15.7M OW. More than double of TDW which had a total run of 21M. So TR is greatly over performing in that market. Doctor Strange which was big hit over there turned in a total of 41M so let's hope TR can capture some magic over there too.

 

[HammerDown]

Great to hear that it went up another 1.5 Mil from the estimate, which was already much higher then expected. It's especially a great start when you consider Thor 2 was a little bit of a back slide in terms of quality, and sometimes that bad experience creates a disinterest and it can come back to bite the sequels that follow. So, glad to hear it is doing well.

Surfer

Yeh and TR is a far superior movie and very well reviewed so i am hoping for a strong word of mouth that will help propel the movie into much bigger heights in the overseas totals.

 

[Filmfan93]

How would you know that someone else hasn't got a warning unless you were them?

That's actually a pretty good point...

I thought it gets publicly visible or something?

Guess I am wrong.