Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[iEquinox]

Wondering by November 16, if Thor could be up to $650M prior to JL's release.

Seems very doable. Ragnarok is at $431.1M now, which is extremely close to GotG2 which was at $431.5M at the same point. After May 18th(which corresponds to Nov. 16 for Ragnarok), GotG2 was at $670.1M.

 

[Donald Thomas]

It's not how you start it's how you finish.

Aloha,
Tell the truth. But Spidey being a reboot has no competition. Thor should make all of the money he can.I enjoyed the movie and can only see Thor going up in the superhero ratings.
Spidey rules

 

[BigThor]

Seems like the actuals were more than 500,000 more than estimates.....

 

[Iceman]

Seems very doable. Ragnarok is at $431.1M now, which is extremely close to GotG2 which was at $431.5M at the same point. After May 18th(which corresponds to Nov. 16 for Ragnarok), GotG2 was at $670.1M.

Ragnarok is keeping very good box office company.

Funny how Guardians have come out of the blue as a virtually unknown property and turned into a mini-juggernaut.

 

[Finarfiniel]

Seems very doable. Ragnarok is at $431.1M now, which is extremely close to GotG2 which was at $431.5M at the same point. After May 18th(which corresponds to Nov. 16 for Ragnarok), GotG2 was at $670.1M.

Awesome. I always had faith that this movie was going to catch on big time with audiences and it's so great to see that faith rewarded. t:

 

[Playco Armboy]

Seems very doable. Ragnarok is at $431.1M now, which is extremely close to GotG2 which was at $431.5M at the same point. After May 18th(which corresponds to Nov. 16 for Ragnarok), GotG2 was at $670.1M.

That means Justice League shouldn't cut too severely into its legs, right?

Internationally, it'll have been out for an entire month. Is $800m a comfortable goal?

 

[Donald Thomas]

That means Justice League shouldn't cut too severely into its legs, right?

Internationally, it'll have been out for an entire month. Is $800m a comfortable goal?

Aloha,
This will be the highest box office of the three Thor movies. I would say 700-800 million is very real for this movie.Hemsworth like Cumberbatch has a built-in following, JLA will not affect that. Plus, the tone of JLA will attract a different crowd than Thor. People may see both.
Spidey rules

 

[writer0327]

Aloha,
This will be the highest box office of the three Thor movies. I would say 700-800 million is very real for this movie.Hemsworth like Cumberbatch has a built-in following, JLA will not affect that. Plus, the tone of JLA will attract a different crowd than Thor. People may see both.
Spidey rules

People will definitely see both. I can see Thor picking up more steam if JL is a good film as well.

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...November 6, 2017...

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $122,744,989 / $431,129,660*

*even better....

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Early number from BOT on Monday is ~$8 million. That would be a Sunday to Monday drop about the same as DS last year.

 

[Iceman]

BO update...November 6, 2017...

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $122,744,989 / $431,129,660*

*even better....

Nice to see it did even better. This is a good platform to shoot for $300-360m domestic.

 

[iEquinox]

Early number from BOT on Monday is ~$8 million. That would be a Sunday to Monday drop about the same as DS last year.

That would actually be quite a bit bigger than DS's drop. If it got DS's Sunday-Monday drop the Monday number would have been $9.44M.

 

[iEquinox]

$8.4M Monday according to deadline. 73.8% drop from Sunday. In the normal range, slightly better than GotG2's 74.8% drop.

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Continues To Make Thunder On Monday With $8.4M

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok continued to roar yesterday, making $8.4 million and bringing its four-day total to $131.1M.

We haven’t seen a strong midday like Ragnarok‘s since It was in release. Following Labor Day, Thor‘s Monday money was the third-best midweek day after It‘s first Tuesday ($11.4M) and Monday ($8.76M) back in early September.

Ragnarok‘s first Monday was bigger than Doctor Strange‘s ($6.2M) a year ago, and it wasn’t that far from Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($9.86M).

This weekend, the Taika Waititi-directed movie stands to make $60M-$61M, maintaining its hold on No. 1 with the only wide entries being Paramount’s Daddy’s Home 2 and 20th Century Fox’s Murder on the Orient Express. All in, counting $308.4M from overseas, Ragnarok has grossed $439.5M.

http://deadline.com/2017/11/thor-ragnarok-monday-box-office-1202203389/

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Late as hell on this but Ragnarok's OW was fantastic. It's gonna be a touch and go race between 'IT' & Ragnarok for the 7th place at the end of the year.

 

[Erzengel]

Late as hell on this but Ragnarok's OW was fantastic. It's gonna be a touch and go race between 'IT' & Ragnarok for the 7th place at the end of the year.

Or fighting it out for 8th between WW for worldwide.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Nowhere near as unpopular as Thor: The Dark World.

I dunno. Spidey had 3 poor films before SM:H.

 

[ultradog]

It's early of course, but looking like Ragnarok will finish around $330M domestically, +/-$10M. That small $325-$335M range is getting cluttered with superhero movies these last few years, S:H, GotG, BvS, SS. I won't be surprised if JL ends up in there as well.

 

[BigThor]

I dunno. Spidey had 3 poor films before SM:H.

The Amazing Spider-Man was not considered a poor film critically or financially.

Also Spider Man 3 and TASM 2 were both finacially successful and nowhere near as disliked by the public as they were by critics and cbm fans.

 

[iEquinox]

The Amazing Spider-Man was not considered a poor film critically or financially.

Also Spider Man 3 and TASM 2 were both finacially successful and nowhere near as disliked by the public as they were by critics and cbm fans.

While that may mostly be true, this is not:

Nowhere near as unpopular as Thor: The Dark World.

Compared to TASM2, TDW has better reviews, better audience scores(RT, IMDb, etc), better cinemascore and better legs at the box office. The Dark World was received better than TASM2 in pretty much every measurable way, by both critics and the general audience.

And about the financially successful part: TDW was also a much bigger financial success than TASM2, with a budget of about $100M less, and a way smaller marketing budget as well. In terms of net profits from their theatrical runs, TDW earned its studio about twice as much money as TASM2 did.

 

[Erzengel]

Even in video sales TASM2 to DW was 2.1 to 3.4 million units.

 

[BigThor]

While that may mostly be true, this is not:

Compared to TASM2, TDW has better reviews, better audience scores(RT, IMDb, etc), better cinemascore and better legs at the box office. The Dark World was received better than TASM2 in pretty much every measurable way, by both critics and the general audience.

And about the financially successful part: TDW was also a much bigger financial success than TASM2, with a budget of about $100M less, and a way smaller marketing budget as well. In terms of net profits from their theatrical runs, TDW earned its studio about twice as much money as TASM2 did.

TASM 2's budget certainly didn't look like was 250 million plus.

 

[Iceman]

I dunno. Spidey had 3 poor films before SM:H.

Yeah, but also 2 absolutely huge films before that which Thor didn't have.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

TASM 2's budget certainly didn't look like was 250 million plus.

Both TASM movie's had production budgets over 250 million.

TASM2 barely made any profits for Sony while TDW made at-least more than 7 times TASM2's gross profits and that includes all the ancillary projections.

 

[iEquinox]

TASM 2's budget certainly didn't look like was 250 million plus.

Yeah, Sony really should have controlled their budget more on that one. With a smaller budget it could have been a lot more successful in the financial department.

Anyway, on topic:
Ragnarok made $8,247,661 on Monday. Domestic total is up to $130,992,650.
http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2017/11/06

That's a 74.3% drop from Sunday. Very similar to GotG2's drop(74.8%). That's a pretty standard drop. These weekday numbers probably won't tell us too much about its legs. If it keeps following standard drops, tomorrow will probably increase 20-25%, then Wednesday will probably drop about 35%, and Thursday will probably increase a bit thanks to Veteran's Day. The weekend drop is what I'm more curious about.

 

[iEquinox]

Yeah, but also 2 absolutely huge films before that which Thor didn't have.

Yeah, while TASM2 hurt the Spider-Man brand more than The Dark World hurt Thor as a brand, Spider-Man obviously has the edge when it came to worldwide popularity.