Your predictions for summer box office???

[Cinemaman]

Ok, I think we should put there our predictions or forecasts about box office of summer 2006.

As for me:

MI3
Domestic: $198m Foreign: $217m Worldwide: $415m.

Posseidon
Domestic: $133m Foreign: $164m Worldwide: $297m.

Da Vinci Code
Domestic: $271m Foreign: $439m Worldwide: $710m.

Over the Hedge
Domestic: $179m Foreign: $205m Worldwide: $384m.

X-Men 3
Domestic: $201m Foreign: $187m Worldwide: $388m.

Cars
Domestic: $275m Foreign: $366m Worldwide: $641m.

Superman Returns
Domestic: $318m Foreign: $385m Worldwide: $703m.

Pirates of Caribbean 2
Domestic: $355m Foreign: $484m Worldwide: $839m.

What you think?

 

[god/devil]

Pretty fair expect I would slightly mark down SR and POTC2 because they are in direct cometition and therefore will not make that much

SR:550m
POTC2: 700m

 

[Darth Elektra]

I would say Cars should be a little lower too.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Well you have to consider the past BO of the summer movies ( in the case of sequels that is ) and the timeframe with the following supermovie.

I'll just post my predictionss for the domestic BO .

MI-3 kicks off the summer BO. ( May 5th)
So , i think that it will make at least 200 million cause no matter how flaws MI-2 was it still made 200 million.
So for MI-3 i think it could end up somewhere around 210 -230 million

Poseidon adventure opens the folling weekend ( May 12th), but i honestly don't think it will have a big effect on MI-3 reign.
I think it'll probably hit 150-180 million or so.

Da Vinci Code opens next. (May 19th)
Definately one of the expected movies since the book has been read by all ages so unlike the typical summer flicks where the audience is mostly male and below 30 , this movie has a bigger audience.
But to be honest , i don't see this movie hitting 300 million. It'll have a huge opening weekend but it'll end up somewhere between the 160-180 million

And then of course next weekend you have X3.( May 26th).
Now based on X2 performance , this movie will at least hit 200 million.
However Da Vinci Code might hurt this movies legs.
X3 is you're typical summer comic book movie. Huge weekend and relative big drop off the following weekend. The thing with Da Vinci is that because it appeals also to the older people , it'll have legs. So it will pose a competition for X3.
Wether X3 will go beyond the 200 million or stay in that area remains to be seen. I think it'll stay in that area.


And then we have of course Cars which opens June 9th.
It's Pixar , it's a family flick and unlike Incredibles cars seems to be like Finding Nemo , a light story.
No doubt cars will hit 300 million. Legs will help it.



POTC 2.
It's difficult for me to predict this. One one hand you have the fact that it is a flick for the family.
But even good reviews show that sequels can make less then their predecessor. I mean look at Spidey 1 grossed 400 million. Spidey 2 grossed 370 mil of something like that.
No other Harry Potter sequel has ever reached the 300 million mark set by the first movie even tough they get better everytime.
So i don't think POTC will hit the same numbers as POTC 1. Maybe 250 or so.


And then you have Miami Vice.
From the looks of everything it's HARD R.
So you can bet you're ass it'll never hit 200. Maybe 100 million but i doubt it






Oohhh my i almost forgot superman returns.
Again for me it's a tough call.
It's superman , so that definately plays a big role. But the marketing campaign is really really lacking.
And that plays a big big role.
I honestly think that superman will end up around 270 million or so.

 

[CConn]

Pirates of the Caribbean 2
Domestic: $300m

Superman Returns
Domestic: $250m

The Da Vinci Code
Domestic: $230m

Cars
Domestic: $230m

X-Men: The Last Stand
Domestic: $200m

MI3
Domestic: $175m

Posseidon
Domestic: $150m

I must say, however, I do hope all of those films make more than I listed; I'd hate to see the box office slump continue into this year.

 

[Michael Corleone]

I think Da Vinci is going to be the top grosser. It will be a surprise for some people but the real reason is its going to bring in the groups that dont normally go to the movies. Passion of the Christ is a good example. It also brought in a lot of money made up of a group that doesnt usually go to the movies. Da Vinci is still on the best seller list. I would have to think most of those folks that loved the book are going to want to see this on the big screen. ....this film will make a truck load.

I love SR but I think POTC and SR are going to cancel each other out to some respect. Both films will suffer from such close releases. I wish either or company would realize this but they just want to compete....it's gonna hurt them both. Bad bad move on both sides.

 

[WorthyStevens]

For the last few years, the top grosser was released in May.

So if it continues this year... it could come down to Da Vinci and X-Men.

 

[Immortalfire]

I'm too dumb to make money predictions.

 

[Galactus]

I really can't make up my mind on The Da Vinci Code. Sure, the book is one of the best selling books of all time, but is there really a reason to watch the movie if you read the book? I can only speak for myself, but with Harry Potter and LOTR, the most recent adaptations of extremely popular novels, I was driven to see the movies out of curiosity to see these fantasy worlds come alive. The Da Vinci Code isn't a FX-extravagnza in the same way and when I read the book I didn't found myself thinking "wow, I wonder how this story would look like on the screen". I just can't see any reason to watch the movie if you read the book, because what will it deliver that the book didn't? And I know that many people who have read The Da Vinci Code are people over 30, like myself, and I wonder if they will bother with the movie. I know that most older people, at least here in Sweden, just don't care much about movies these days and are perhaps thinking "why see it? I probably won't be as good as the novel anyway".

On the other hand, I suppose there are fans who have read the book, and will see the movie, play the game, buy the toys, wear the underwear

 

[Darth Elektra]

Im wearing Da Vinci Code underwear,lol.

However you borught up good points Galactus.

 

[Cinemaman]

As I know Da Vinci Code have one of the biggest fan bases in the world.

People love this book and will go to see the movie. We can expect high numbers in box office. So that is why I think it will make more than $300m.

SR can actually be next Narnia in competition with POTC2. But really have feeling that it will make $310-315m. This movie is one of the most anticipation movies 2006.
It will make high numbers domesticly and enough in overseas.

I cant really say something about POTC2. It can make less or more than 1st movie. I know that it will get high numbers in overseas.

Thats all.

 

[Cinemaman]

Well you have to consider the past BO of the summer movies ( in the case of sequels that is ) and the timeframe with the following supermovie.

I'll just post my predictionss for the domestic BO .

MI-3 kicks off the summer BO. ( May 5th)
So , i think that it will make at least 200 million cause no matter how flaws MI-2 was it still made 200 million.
So for MI-3 i think it could end up somewhere around 210 -230 million

Poseidon adventure opens the folling weekend ( May 12th), but i honestly don't think it will have a big effect on MI-3 reign.
I think it'll probably hit 150-180 million or so.

Da Vinci Code opens next. (May 19th)
Definately one of the expected movies since the book has been read by all ages so unlike the typical summer flicks where the audience is mostly male and below 30 , this movie has a bigger audience.
But to be honest , i don't see this movie hitting 300 million. It'll have a huge opening weekend but it'll end up somewhere between the 160-180 million

And then of course next weekend you have X3.( May 26th).
Now based on X2 performance , this movie will at least hit 200 million.
However Da Vinci Code might hurt this movies legs.
X3 is you're typical summer comic book movie. Huge weekend and relative big drop off the following weekend. The thing with Da Vinci is that because it appeals also to the older people , it'll have legs. So it will pose a competition for X3.
Wether X3 will go beyond the 200 million or stay in that area remains to be seen. I think it'll stay in that area.


And then we have of course Cars which opens June 9th.
It's Pixar , it's a family flick and unlike Incredibles cars seems to be like Finding Nemo , a light story.
No doubt cars will hit 300 million. Legs will help it.



POTC 2.
It's difficult for me to predict this. One one hand you have the fact that it is a flick for the family.
But even good reviews show that sequels can make less then their predecessor. I mean look at Spidey 1 grossed 400 million. Spidey 2 grossed 370 mil of something like that.
No other Harry Potter sequel has ever reached the 300 million mark set by the first movie even tough they get better everytime.
So i don't think POTC will hit the same numbers as POTC 1. Maybe 250 or so.


And then you have Miami Vice.
From the looks of everything it's HARD R.
So you can bet you're ass it'll never hit 200. Maybe 100 million but i doubt it






Oohhh my i almost forgot superman returns.
Again for me it's a tough call.
It's superman , so that definately plays a big role. But the marketing campaign is really really lacking.
And that plays a big big role.
I honestly think that superman will end up around 270 million or so.

Sorry man, but your numbers are too low for Da Vinci Code.

If it makes huge opening, it will absolutely continue box office with big money. There is no way it will make even less than $200m.

As I can say almost 65% of people in the world are looking forward to it.

So I am sure it will make more than $250m, even if this movie have R-raiting.

 

[Galactus]

I suppose I'm among the 35% who doesn't look forward to The Da Vinci Code then

Honestly, I just found the book poorly written. A typical "popcorn-novel", if there are such things.

 

[Kevin Roegele]

I suppose I'm among the 35% who doesn't look forward to The Da Vinci Code then

Nor I.

 

[Cinemaman]

If POTC2 makes less than 1st movie, SR will rule box office domesticly and DVC will rule box office in overseas.

I think so, because POTC2 can be next Kong with higher numbers or a sequel, which looks like next BTTF2 or The Matrix 2.

 

[Darth Elektra]

I suppose I'm among the 35% who doesn't look forward to The Da Vinci Code then

Honestly, I just found the book poorly written. A typical "popcorn-novel", if there are such things.

Really? Holy... The Book was great and the movie looks great too.

 

[Darth Elektra]

POTC2 is gonna be huge, It will beat Superman Returns. Aslong as its have as good as the first one.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Sorry man, but your numbers are too low for Da Vinci Code.

If it makes huge opening, it will absolutely continue box office with big money. There is no way it will make even less than $200m.

As I can say almost 65% of people in the world are looking forward to it.

So I am sure it will make more than $250m, even if this movie have R-raiting.

Well it is a prediction that i made and i don't see why it shouldn't happen.
I think i explained it .

You have basically a big movie opening each weekend.
MI-3 starts on May5th.
One week later on May 12th Poseidon opens
One week later on May 19th Da Vinci Opens
One week later On May 26th X3 opens.

If Da Vinci had opened in a less crowded area , i would've gone and said that this movie might have a big chance of being huge.
But my predictions for Da Vinci is that it'll have a huge opening weekend with everyone going to see it and then afterwards it'll have a big drop off because X3 will challenge it.
Now you might say that Da Vinci Code has a big fanbase , but so does X3.
X3 has the comic book fans as well as the casual movie goer who have seen X1 and X2 and have gone to love it.

And lets not forget the the competition of other movies as well. MI-3 and Poseidon.





btw , i'm also part of the 35 % that absolutely has no interest in seieng this movie immeditaly.

 

[Darth Elektra]

btw , i'm also part of the 35 % that absolutely has no interest in seieng this movie immeditaly.

Then that means your biased. But so am I and Cinemaman. I just think that X3 and The Da Vinci Code are aiming for two differant aducience's(spell?). So Im not sure how big of a drop it will have. Now for instance SR and POTC2, Thier aiming for the same audience. So I think Superman will have a huge drop-off.

 

[matrix_ghost]

I don't see how not seeing a movie immediatly means that you're biased.

Will i see Da Vinci Code ? Yes.
But not because of the book , which after 20 pages i just stopped reading cause i lost interest.

I just want to see what the big fuss is about. No doubt that many "fans" of the book will explain things to me
There are other movies which i want to see before it comes out . X3 and MI-3. But from the looks of things i'll most likely be dragged to see it cause it'll open on the same time here in the netherlands.

The thing with X3 is that is applies to you're typical male under 30 audience. But over the years with the release of X1 and X2 , this movie has built up quite a large fanbase. I doubt the majority of people are really worried about the director switch and the whole "problems that have been adressed on the intertet" or for that matter are really interested in these things.
All they want is a good movie in the end.

With Da Vinci code , you have the typical problems of how is the book being adapted. You screw up that , and millions of people will be pissed.
And here is why i think that Da Vinci Code won't hit like 300 million as so people are claiming.
Unlike Passion Of Christ which had a big controversy , the author and the studio remain largely mum about the supposedly historical accurancy of the book. Had there been a big discussion about this , then i'm sure Da Vinci could be huge.

Because you're actually challenging the church for a lie. That is a huge huge controversy. And there have been so many programs in the world where all the things that have been wirtten in the book , have been proven false.
Brown never goes into discussion about the details.
So yeah , IMO i see this as being a negative impact on the BO also.


I might be proven wrong and if that is the case i''ll admit that i was wrong in my prediction.
It's not like i have a crystal ball to look into the future. I'm just basing my predictions based on what i know

 

[Galactus]

Really? Holy... The Book was great and the movie looks great too.

I suppose if you like one dimensional characters the book is great. But obviously that's what most people wants these days. Personally I prefer authors who can write character-driven stories. To me Dan Brown is just another bestselling writer who has great knowledge about something, in this case historical facts, but when it comes to create a fictional story and realistic characters he just isn't better than your average Hollywood script-writer. After just a few books he's already repeating himself. Just compare the beginning of The Da Vinci Code and Angels & Demons, or the very end of A&D and Deception Point you'll see

 

[Darth Elektra]

Angel & Demons is a great book, I hope they make it into a film.

 

[Galactus]

Angel & Demons is a great book, I hope they make it into a film.

They will. Unless The Da Vinci Code turns out to be a big flop. Which I don't think is very likely.

 

[The-Arachnoid]

Superman will crush everything.
POTC included.

 

[Super_Ludacris]

Pirates got this