🇮🇷 The Iran Thread II

Will the United States go to war with Iran in either 2012 or 2013?

  • Yes, definitely.

  • Possibly.

  • I dont know.

  • Probably not.

  • Definitely not.


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Why would I assume that the mullahs in Iran are rational? I don't trust any sort of religious fundamentalists, why make an exception for these guys? I don't like the bellicose talk from conservatives in the US towards Iran, but it takes two to tango, its not like Iran hasn't bellicose as well.

I don't trust religious fundamentalists either. But all of this rhetoric about the irrational mullahs assumes that the rulers of Iran are crazy enough to subject their country to certain annihilation by initiating a nuclear exchange with Israel. These fears have no basis in reality, religious fundamentalist government or no. Say what you will about them, but the rulers of Iran have been fairly cautious and rational in their foreign policy. Their rhetoric is another matter...

How exactly is "vanish from the page of history" that much better then "wipe
Israel off the map"? That is still bellicose. Perhaps the Iranian regime believe they should be the ones who should make Israel vanish from the page of history? How this type of language not bellicose? The Iranian regime is extremely reactionary, why should their bellicose talk be forgiven compared to their counterparts in the US? If Iran stopped trying to give the middle finger to the rest of the international community, conservatives in the US would have a lot less ammo to promote a war against that country.

"Vanish from the page of history" has less violent connotations. The idea that the Israeli state could vanish from the page of history leaves room for peaceful dissolution, a one- or two-state solution.

The Iranian regime is definitely reactionary - just as much as the rulers of the U.S. The difference is that the United States is a globe-straddling superpower with nuclear weapons, a bigger military than the rest of the world combined, and military bases in every country, which has constantly interfered in other countries' affairs since the end of World War II, while Iran is a developing nation that has not invaded another country in centuries.

The funny thing is that the hardliners in each country are mirror images of each other. Neocons in the U.S. portray Iran as an evil dictatorship with whom no negotiation is possible, while hardliners in Iran see the U.S. as the "Great Satan" with whom no negotiation is possible. Thus, no negotiations.

The U.S. also constantly gives the finger to the international community, most obviously through its constant vetoes of U.N. resolutions condemning Israel for its human rights abuses in Palestine. The difference, once again, is that America is a superpower with clout and Iran is not, other than its vast oil supplies, which I'm sure have nothing to do with any of this. :whatever:
 
Okay guys, once again, Glenn Greenwald summarizes all this far more concisely and eloquently than I could. For these reasons, I believe his latest column is worth quoting in full:

George Orwell on the Evil Iranian Menace

The U.S. has long had Iran virtually encircled as a result of the American occupation of Afghanistan on Iran’s Eastern border, its invasion of Iraq on its Western border, its NATO ally Turkey hovering on Iran’s Northwestern border, some degree of military relationship with Turkmenistan on Iran’s Northeastern border, and multiple U.S. client states sitting right across the Persian Gulf (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, where the massive U.S. Fifth Fleet is stationed). Additionally, some combination of the U.S. and Israel has bombarded Iran with multiple acts of war over the last year, including explosions on Iranian soil, the murder of numerous Iranian nuclear scientists (in which even one of their wives was shot), and sophisticated cyberattacks. Meanwhile, top American political officials from both parties are actively demanding that an Iranian revolutionary cult be removed from the list of Terrorist organizations (just coincidentally, they’re all on the cult’s payroll). In the past decade, the U.S. and/or Israel have invaded, air attacked, and/or occupied Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon, Sudan, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (to say nothing of the creation of a worldwide torture regime, a system of “black site” prisons around the world to which people were disappeared, and a due-process-free detention camp in the middle of the Caribbean Ocean where many people remain encaged for almost a full decade without charges). During this same time period, Iran has not invaded, occupied or air attacked anyone. Iran, to be sure, is domestically oppressive, but no more so — and in many cases less — than the multiple regimes funded, armed and otherwise propped up by the U.S. during this period. Those are all just facts.

But — despite all of these facts — all Serious people in the U.S. know that Iran is the Aggressor, the Modern Nazis, a True Menace, while the U.S. and Israel are its innocent peace-loving victims. Today, Iran claims that it took down an American drone flying over its country (either by shooting it down or overtaking its control system). Iran has made similar claims before, but this time the U.S. admits it last week lost a drone flying over what it claims was Western Afghanistan (not Eastern Iran). Between the intense wall of secrecy behind which the U.S. government operates and the less-than-reliable nature of the pronouncements from both governments, we’ll likely never know what happened for sure. In any event, this is yet another case of increased tensions between the two nations, and it’s thus time for yet another round of Those Evil, Provocative, Aggressive Iranians (because, of course, no peace-loving nation — such as the U.S. — would ever dare shoot down an Iranian drone if it flew over their soil; in fact, just imagine the massive retaliatory response that would be triggered if Iran were found to be flying drones over American soil, let alone simultaneously killing U.S. scientists, causing explosions on U.S. soil, backing U.S. Terrorist groups, and launching cyber attacks on U.S. nuclear facilities, all while occupying Canada and Mexico with more than 150,000 troops). In light of these belligerent U.S. actions and threats — along with seeing how the U.S. treats countries without a nuclear capability versus those who have one – nothing is more rational than Iran’s wanting a nuclear weapon.

Given the extensive violence and aggression the U.S. has perpetrated, and continues to perpetrate, on numerous countries in that region, one might think that not even our political culture could sustain the propagandistic myth that it is Iran that is the aggressor state and the U.S. that is its peace-loving victim. But, of course, one who thought that would be completely wrong. Not only is it a widespread belief, but it’s virtually mandated orthodoxy. But none of that should be at all surprising or confusing, given that 66 years ago, George Orwell — in his 1945 Notes on Nationalism — explained exactly the warped form of thinking that creates this mindset:
All nationalists have the power of not seeing resemblances between similar sets of facts. A British Tory will defend self-determination in Europe and oppose it in India with no feeling of inconsistency. Actions are held to be good or bad, not on their own merits, but according to who does them, and there is almost no kind of outrage — torture, the use of hostages, forced labour, mass deportations, imprisonment without trial, forgery, assassination, the bombing of civilians — which does not change its moral colour when it is committed by ‘our’ side. . . . The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them.
I’ve cited that passage before, but it really does explain so very much (and that form of thinking extends beyond nationalism to all tribal loyalties). It’s how a country that has repeatedly invaded, occupied, bombed, and killed civilians in numerous other nations over the last decade can look at a country that has done little or none of that (but has been practically surrounded by all that aggression) and be convinced: they are the Evil aggressors and must be stopped at all costs.
 
I think the point I made a page back is one not to be missed:

How incredibly stupid can people be to think that the solution to the issues with Iran is war? Honestly people - the people of the country are restless and want a change of regime - people act like they care and then Michael Jackson dies and no one gives a **** about the protesters anymore.

If Iran goes to war, it will only ensure the strength of its current regime; Iranians will arise to defend the country, regardless of who is running it, and those who don't will be thrown in jail for refuting conscription.

The Islamic Republic knows this and WANTS a war as it will only secure their Regime AND make them (the leaders) rich. The cost of oil alone will skyrocket, and might I remind you that those holding the money couldn't care less if there is a war happening at their country or next door; a check is a check. Things like these "drone" preventions, spitting in the US and Israel's faces, paying a small group of students to burn flags and storm embassies and then tear gassing them themselves, rigging elections, making people sign fake confessions, saying that the virus hitting their plants were made by USA and Israel (when the students of Iranian Universities themselves admitted to it), and multiple other actions made by this diabolical regime are taken to ensure a war; and the media will exaggerate and expose these fallacies for ratings, leading to masses conceding to a "need" for war.

It's completely ridiculous and downright embarrassing.
 
I think the point I made a page back is one not to be missed:

How incredibly stupid can people be to think that the solution to the issues with Iran is war? Honestly people - the people of the country are restless and want a change of regime - people act like they care and then Michael Jackson dies and no one gives a **** about the protesters anymore.

If Iran goes to war, it will only ensure the strength of its current regime; Iranians will arise to defend the country, regardless of who is running it, and those who don't will be thrown in jail for refuting conscription.

You're totally right. I'm good friends with an Iranian Marxist who was jailed and tortured by the government in Tehran for selling a communist newspaper on the street. But when I asked him, he maintained that if his country was attacked, he would nevertheless go back and fight to defend it, because it's his country.

War is absolutely the wrong answer. The neocon opinion-makers who believe that ordinary Iranians would rally to the side of the country bombing them, their country, their family and friends, once again prove their own ignorance of reality.
 
Even Gaddafi had the sense to shut down his nuclear program. You don't play nuclear chicken with the United States, much less Israel.
 
First and foremost, this whole idea of countries having to answer to the United States is an ignorant approach to world politics; obviously the same goes for every country.

Secondly, IRAN is NOT itching for war - the IRANIANS are NOT asking for a nuclear program; it's the Islamic Regime that's doing this. And you think that the American Government has poeples' best interests in mind (American or Iranian)? Hell no.

"This is big business". None of these guys give a rat's ass about you or me or some random Persian guy in Iran so don't act like you understand this entire situation based on what you've seen on TV, or in the Newspaper, or based on a couple speeches. I've spent my entire life devoted to understanding the politics behind Iran above all other political matters, and I can tell you now that the solution to Iran's problems is for World leaders to show the student protesters (the real ones) their support so that they have the motivation to topple their "leaders" and so that they instill insecurity in this tyrannical regime.
 
The basis for the war in Iran has a much credibility as the fact Abraham Lincoln was assassinated by Union Pacific so they could be the ones to lay the golden spike and not another favored competitor.
 
The basis for the war in Iran has a much credibility as the fact Abraham Lincoln was assassinated by Union Pacific so they could be the ones to lay the golden spike and not another favored competitor.
How are those even similar? :huh:

This is the part where we just kick back and let Israel take care of it.
g.php
:dry: That's incredibly hateful.
 
This is such an obvious Trojan horse. :funny:

As if the US would conveniently drop an advanced UAV with no damage. That thing was pretty much delivered to them.

They were probably tipped off to where they could find it in Iran after it had been dropped off.

Enjoy the shenanigans to come world.
 
Im not sure which poster said it, but Iran's interest in nuclear energy is a two pronged one. One is for defense, the other is to expand infrastructure and modernize it's towns and cities with a robust energy system.

Iran gaining nuclear energy allows it to better modernize and spread its geopolitical influence without fear of occupation.

This is why the Arab league and US is against it, and why Russia and China are supporting it.
 
Actually Russia and China are supporting Iran because it is the enemy of their enemy.

If they want nuclear weapons for defense they really need to review their defense policy.
 
I'm really not too worried about a US intervention in Iran because we will collapse economically by the time they return the last decade of rhetoric into a real war or if they attack will mean a death blow to the global economy when oil prices skyrocket.
 
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