Box Office 2006 Part 2

In its defense, Madea has an extreme following, what with the nationwide plays and all. But I guess black people weren't the only ones going.
 
Comingsoon's predictions:

Scary Movie 4: $32 to 35 million opening weekend on its way to $92 million.

The Wild: $9 to 11 million opening weekend on its way to $35 million.
 
Worldwide

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($287,8 million)
2. The Pink Panther ($152,3 million)
3. Big Momma's House 2 ($130,9 million)
4. Nanny McPhee ($110,9 million)
5. Underworld: Evolution ($106,1 million)
6. Inside Man ($101,2 million)
7. Failure to Launch ($97,7 million)
8. V for Vendetta ($94,3 million)
9. Final Destination 3 ($92,9 million)
10. Eight Below ($89,5 million)
11. Date Movie ($73,2 million)
12. Firewall ($70,8 million)
13. Hostel ($69,5 million)
14. The Shaggy Dog ($66 million)
15. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,1 million)
16. Curious George ($57,8 million)
17. The Hills Have Eyes ($51,1 million)
18. When a Stranger Calls ($50,3 million)
19. Glory Road ($42,5 million)
20. Last Holiday ($41,9 million)
 
North America

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($127,2 million)
2. The Pink Panther ($82 million)
3. Failure to Launch ($80,6 million)
4. Eight Below ($80 million)
5. Big Momma's House 2 ($69,6 million)
6. Inside Man ($69 million)
7. V for Vendetta ($63,8 million)
8. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,1 million)
9. Underworld: Evolution ($62,3 million)
10. Curious George ($57,9 million)
11. The Shaggy Dog ($56,3 million)
12. Final Destination 3 ($54 million)
13. Firewall ($48,2 million)
14. Date Movie ($48,1 million)
15. When a Stranger Calls ($47,9 million)
16. Hostel ($47,3 million)
17. Nanny McPhee ($46,8 million)
18. Glory Road ($42,5 million)
19. The Hills Have Eyes ($40,6 million)
20. Last Holiday ($38,4 million)
 
Year-to-date comparison

Total box office numbers between 1 January and 13 April

2006: $2 302,8 million
2005: $2 262,1 million
2004: $2 457,5 million
2003: $2 248,4 million
2002: $2 358,3 million
 
North America

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($147,2 million)
2. Failure to Launch ($83,2 million)
3. The Pink Panther ($82,2 million)
4. Eight Below ($80,2 million)
5. Inside Man ($75,4 million)
6. Big Momma's House 2 ($69,8 million)
7. V for Vendetta ($66 million)
8. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,1 million)
9. Underworld: Evolution ($62,3 million)
10. Curious George ($58 million)
11. The Shaggy Dog ($56,7 million)
12. Final Destination 3 ($54,1 million)
13. Firewall ($48,4 million)
14. Date Movie ($48,2 million)
15. When a Stranger Calls ($47,9 million)
16. Hostel ($47,3 million)
17. Nanny McPhee ($46,9 million)
18. Glory Road ($42,6 million)
19. The Hills Have Eyes ($40,9 million)
20. Scary Movie 4 ($40,2 million)
 
Comingsoon's predictions:

Silent Hill: $18 to 20 million opening weekend on its way to $45 million.

The Sentinel: $11 to 13 million opening weekend on its way to around $36 million.

American Dreamz: $8 to 10 million opening weekend on its way to roughly $30 million total.
 
Worldwide

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($427,9 million)
2. The Pink Panther ($154,8 million)
3. Big Momma's House 2 ($132,9 million)
4. Inside Man ($131,4 million)
5. Nanny McPhee ($115,4 million)
6. Failure to Launch ($108,2 million)
7. Underworld: Evolution ($106,9 million)
8. V for Vendetta ($104,8 million)
9. Final Destination 3 ($96,3 million)
10. Eight Below ($91,8 million)
11. Firewall ($75,4 million)
12. Date Movie ($74,5 million)
13. Hostel ($72 million)
14. The Shaggy Dog ($69 million)
15. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,1 million)
16. Curious George ($58 million)
17. Scary Movie 4 ($56,2 million)
18. The Hills Have Eyes ($52,8 million)
19. When a Stranger Calls ($51,6 million)
20. Glory Road ($42,6 million)
 
North America

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($155,1 million)
2. Failure to Launch ($84,2 million)
3. The Pink Panther ($82,2 million)
4. Eight Below ($80,3 million)
5. Inside Man ($77,6 million)
6. Big Momma's House 2 ($69,8 million)
7. V for Vendetta ($67 million)
8. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,1 million)
9. Underworld: Evolution ($62,3 million)
10. Curious George ($58,1 million)
11. The Shaggy Dog ($57 million)
12. Final Destination 3 ($54,1 million)
13. Scary Movie 4 ($50,7 million)
14. Firewall ($48,4 million)
15. Date Movie ($48,3 million)
16. When a Stranger Calls ($47,9 million)
17. Hostel ($47,3 million)
18. Nanny McPhee ($46,9 million)
19. Glory Road ($42,6 million)
20. The Hills Have Eyes ($41,1 million)
 
Year-to-date comparison

Total box office numbers between 1 January and 20 April

2006: $2 465,8 million
2005: $2 369,7 million
2004: $2 601,9 million
2003: $2 396,2 million
2002: $2 487,6 million
 
North America

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($168,3 million)
2. Failure to Launch ($85,6 million)
3. The Pink Panther ($82,2 million)
4. Inside Man ($81,3 million)
5. Eight Below ($80,6 million)
6. Big Momma's House 2 ($69,9 million)
7. V for Vendetta ($68 million)
8. Scary Movie 4 ($67,5 million)
9. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,2 million)
10. Underworld: Evolution ($62,3 million)
11. Curious George ($58,2 million)
12. The Shaggy Dog ($57,2 million)
13. Final Destination 3 ($54,1 million)
14. Firewall ($48,5 million)
15. Date Movie ($48,4 million)
16. When a Stranger Calls ($47,9 million)
17. Hostel ($47,3 million)
18. The Benchwarmers ($47,1 million)
19. Nanny McPhee ($47 million)
20. Glory Road ($42,6 million)
 
Comingsoon's predictions:

United 93: $14 to 17 million on its way to $50 million.
RV: $17 to 19 million opening weekend on its way to $55 million.
Akeelah and the Bee: $8 to 10 million on its way to $30 million.
Stick It: $5 to 6 million on its way to $15 million.
 
Worldwide

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($504 million)
2. The Pink Panther ($155,7 million)
3. Inside Man ($146,1 million)
4. Big Momma's House 2 ($134,5 million)
5. Nanny McPhee ($117 million)
6. Failure to Launch ($113,9 million)
7. V for Vendetta ($113,3 million)
8. Underworld: Evolution ($107,7 million)
9. Final Destination 3 ($100,2 million)
10. Scary Movie 4 ($99,2 million)
11. Eight Below ($96,8 million)
12. Firewall ($78 million)
13. Date Movie ($75,4 million)
14. Hostel ($73,9 million)
15. The Shaggy Dog ($71,8 million)
16. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,2 million)
17. Curious George ($58,2 million)
18. The Hills Have Eyes ($54 million)
19. When a Stranger Calls ($52 million)
20. The Benchwarmers ($47,4 million)
 
North America

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($170,7 million)
2. Failure to Launch ($86 million)
3. Inside Man ($82,4 million)
4. The Pink Panther ($82,2 million)
5. Eight Below ($80,7 million)
6. Scary Movie 4 ($70,4 million)
7. Big Momma's House 2 ($69,9 million)
8. V for Vendetta ($68,4 million)
9. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,3 million)
10. Underworld: Evolution ($62,3 million)
11. Curious George ($58,2 million)
12. The Shaggy Dog ($57,2 million)
13. Final Destination 3 ($54,1 million)
14. Firewall ($48,6 million)
15. The Benchwarmers ($48,4 million)
16. Date Movie ($48,4 million)
17. When a Stranger Calls ($47,9 million)
18. Hostel ($47,3 million)
19. Nanny McPhee ($47,1 million)
20. Glory Road ($42,6 million)
 
Year-to-date comparison

Total box office numbers between 1 January and 27 April

2006: $2 600,5 million
2005: $2 489,9 million
2004: $2 727,7 million
2003: $2 531,4 million
2002: $2 605,6 million
 
North America

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($177,9 million)
2. Failure to Launch ($86,6 million)
3. Inside Man ($84,5 million)
4. The Pink Panther ($82,2 million)
5. Eight Below ($80,9 million)
6. Scary Movie 4 ($78,2 million)
7. Big Momma's House 2 ($70 million)
8. V for Vendetta ($69 million)
9. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,3 million)
10. Underworld: Evolution ($62,3 million)
11. Curious George ($58,3 million)
12. The Shaggy Dog ($57,3 million)
13. Final Destination 3 ($54,1 million)
14. The Benchwarmers ($52,8 million)
15. Firewall ($48,6 million)
16. Date Movie ($48,4 million)
17. When a Stranger Calls ($47,9 million)
18. Hostel ($47,3 million)
19. Nanny McPhee ($47,1 million)
20. Glory Road ($42,6 million)
 
Comingsoon's predictions:

Mission: Impossible III: $64 to 66 million opening weekend on its way to just over $190 million or even close to $200 million.

An American Haunting: $4 to 6 million on its way to $15 to 20 million.

Hoot: $9 to 11 million on its way to $35 million total by the time it leaves theatres.
 
Comingsoon's summer predictioons:

The Warrior's Summer Box Office Preview
Source: Edward Douglas May 2, 2006


The month of May has come upon us pretty fast this year, which means it's officially the summer movie season again. As is the case every year, studios are rolling out their biggest movies, reviving a few franchises and hopefully finding a few tentpoles that will make them enough money to keep them going for the rest of the year.

This year, it's mostly about sequels and returning franchises, but there's at least one highly-anticipated adaptation and a bunch of animated offerings, not to mention a movie from each of the current kings of comedy.

(Disclaimer: Box office predictions are subject to change between the time of this posting and the regular weekly column, depending on theatre counts, marketing, and other factors. This is a preview of what to expect with some rough projections based on early information.)

The Big Three
There's no question that this summer is really about three movies, each of them trying to make close to or more than $300 million, giving their respective studios the advantage at winning the summer. Among them are a sequel, a revamp, and an adaptation of one of the biggest literary phenomena of the last decade.


Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Walt Disney Pictures) – July 7
Possibly the most anticipated sequels of the year is the return of Johnny Depp's Captain Jack Sparrow, Orlando Bloom's Will Turner and Keira Knightley's Elizabeth Swann in a new adventure, pitting them against the one and only Davey Jones, as played by Bill Nighy. The franchise, which started out as a big screen version of a Disneyworld amusement park ride, seemed like a gamble at first, because there hadn't been a successful pirate adventure movie in decades, but Depp won audiences over, getting himself an Oscar nomination in the bargain, and getting audiences back for repeat viewings to the point where it became Disney's second biggest hit of 2003, making over $300 million. They've been shooting this and the third part of the trilogy for the past year, and obviously, the success of the middle chapter is critical to avoid another "Matrix Revolutions" situation. Just like the first movie, it will open the weekend after 4th of July, and it stands a good chance at dominating that entire month with few other strong movies that appeal to every age, gender and demographic. That alone should allow it to end up over $300 million by summer's end, just like the original.
Box Office Potential: $300 to 310 million

The Da Vinci Code (Sony Pictures) - May 19
Dan Brown's bestselling book is given the big screen treatment at the hands of Oscar-winning director Ron Howard, once again teamed with frequent collaborator Tom Hanks, whose long and healthy movie career began with Howard's Splash. They certainly have a lot of expectations to live up to, but you can't scoff at the 40 million copies of Dan Brown's book that have sold in hardcover alone, and the fanaticism that surrounds the movie is insane, with dozens of books having been written just to analyze its contents. Howard also has what might be a perfect cast to accompany Hanks from Audrey Tautou to Ian McKellen, Paul Bettany, Alfred Molina and Jean Reno. A lot of people, including many people who don't often go to the movies, are going to rush out to see it opening weekend to see how Howard handles the religious stuff from the book, and the controversy, which includes a boycott from the Vatican, should keep it going through Memorial Day and the first week of June with the main draw being adults over 30.
Box Office Potential: $270 to 290 million


Superman Returns (Warner Bros. Pictures) - June 30
Relative newcomer Brandon Routh stars as Clark Kent AKA the Man of Steel in the Bryan Singer revival of Warner Bros.' Superman franchise, which sputtered to a halt in the late '80s after a few too many bad sequels. Sounds a bit like Batman, doesn't it? Coming off the success of last year's Batman Begins, the WB is hoping to revive another of their superhero icons, and they're hoping that Singer will have as much success with Superman Returns, as he did with the first two "X-Men" movies. With a huge budget and a cast that includes Kate Bosworth as Lois Lane and the perfectly cast Kevin Spacey as Lex Luthor, they certainly have the makings of a Super-movie. If you remember how well the first Spider-Man movie did, and you realize how popular and known Superman is by comparison, you can get some idea how easy it will be for a good movie to revive the franchise and do very, very well. Already considered one of the most expensive movies ever made, even counting Peter Jackson's King Kong, there's a lot riding on this film to do well, and fortunately, the character is such an icon that it should deliver with an impressive summer box office gross.
Box Office Potential: $260 to 280 million

Attack of the Three-quels
Although the three movies above are expected to dominate the summer, three other movies will try to do just as much business by going back to the well for a third time. At least two of them should succeed, while the third may have already worn out its welcome.

X-Men: The Last Stand (20th Century Fox) - May 26
Everyone's favorite mutants are back, as are all the actors who played them in the previous two "X-Men" movies, including Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, Halle Berry as Storm, and of course, Ian McKellen and Patrick Stewart. The only one not back is director Bryan Singer, who moved onto Superman Returns, but he's been replaced by Brett Ratner (after a brief attempt by Layer Cake director Matthew Vaughn). The fanboys are nervous about the "Rush Hour" honcho messing with the mutants, but the millions of regular people who loved the last movie will probably be chomping at the bit for what is supposedly the final installment, featuring more mutants than you can count on both hands and feet. The regulars are joined by Kelsey "Frasier" Grammer as Beast, Ben Foster as Angel and Hard Candy's Ellen Page as Kitty Pryde. The three-quel is getting a plum Memorial Day release, one of the busiest movie weekends of the year, where it will be trying to take the holiday weekend record away from Shrek 2. X2 made over $89 million its opening weekend and there's really no reason why X-Men: The Last Stand shouldn't make more than that in its first four days.
Box Office Potential: $200 to 220 million


Mission: Impossible III (Paramount Pictures ) - May 5
After almost six years and various false starts, Tom Cruise is back playing Ethan Hunt, for the third movie based on the popular '70s television show. This time, he is joined by first-time movie director J.J. Abrams, best known as the creator of hit ABC shows Alias and Lost, as well as a Oscar-winner Philip Seymour Hoffman, who should take being a movie bad guy to a whole new level. The enormous varied cast also includes the likes of Ving Rhames, Laurence Fishburne, Michelle Monaghan, Kerri Russell, Jonathan Rhys-Meyers and Simon Pegg. "M:i:III" kicks off the summer movie season on Friday, and considering how long it's been since there's been a big budget action flick of this caliber, it should do very well, even if it has to face the back-to-back onslaught of Poseidon, The Da Vinci Code and X-Men: The Last Stand in the weeks that follow.
Box Office Potential: $180 to 200 million

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (Universal Pictures) – June 16
In this case, going back to the well for a third time without either of the stars or directors from the first two movies might be a bad idea, as Annapolis director Justin Lin takes the helm for the third movie in the series, which looks at another side of street racing, this time in Tokyo. As always, the appeal will be the racing action, which helped the first two movies open to over $40 and 50 million respectively, although people might not be so keen on another one after the bad 2003 sequel, especially with the only recognizable face being that of rapper Bow Wow. Then again, the last two "Fast and the Furious" movies were underestimated, since obviously there's a younger teen male audience who eats this stuff up.
Box Office Potential: $65 to 75 million

The Water Sportsmen
Two popular directors whose names are usually the best way of selling their movies return this summer with movies, which hope to bring them back into favor with their fans after less than thrilling 2004 efforts.


Poseidon (Warner Bros.) - May 12
Wolfgang Peterson remakes Irwin Allen's 1972 boat disaster movie, shortening the title while adding more of his normal big budget special effects. His cast includes the likes of Josh Lucas, Kurt Russell, Emmy Rossum, Richard Dreyfuss and HBO veterans Freddy Rodriguez (Six Feet Under) and Kevin Dillon (Entourage). Not exactly a Brad Pitt or George Clooney in the bunch to drive it with starpower as was the case with Wolfgang's previous films Troy and The Perfect Storm. The latter might have been a good proving ground that Peterson could pull this remake, and the many moviegoers who have swarmed to big budget disaster flicks like Twister, Deep Impact, Armageddon and The Day After Tomorrow will be out in large numbers to see this one, as well.
Box Office Potential: $140 to 150 million

Lady in the Water (Warner Bros.) – July 21
M. Night Shyamalan follows up the disappointing The Village with a dark child's fairy tale for new distributor, Warner Bros. While he has a children's book to accompany it, this is not exactly a family film in its dark tale of a building superintendent, Sideways star Paul Giamatti, who finds a mermaid, played by the returning Bryce Dallas Howard, in the building's pool. Before you can say, "Didn't we just see this in a movie called Aquamarine?" they're encountering all sorts of other strange fantasy creatures. Fortunately, Night still has enough fans that they'll go see this one, though it may be more of a sleeper film that does more business based on word-of-mouth.
Box Office Potential: $120 to 130 million

Clash of the Animated Titans
Every summer, there's one or two animated films trying to get kids into theatres, and it's become a highly-competitive field in recent years with two giants fighting it out to become the dominant force in animation. For a long time, Pixar Animation Studios, who were recently bought by Disney, were the driving force of the computer animated genre, but DreamWorks Animation has found a solid money earners in the "Shrek" movies. Both studios have had summer movies that have grossed over $300 million, but for the first time, they'll be going head-to-head in the same season at a time when the novelty of computer animation may have already worn off. Should be very interesting.


Cars (Walt Disney Pictures/Pixar Animation Studios) - June 9
Pixar's first movie since The Incredibles in late 2004 and the first since they were bought by Disney will certainly be one worth keeping an eye on this June, because it will give some idea of what we'll be seeing in the company's future. After being moved back six months from its original holiday release, Cars hopes to capitalize on the current Nascar craze by bringing the motor vehicles to life with the personalities of actors like Paul Newman, Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy and others. It's directed by John Lasseter, who helmed Pixar's first three big hits, including both "Toy Story" movies and A Bug's Life, which could be just what the doctor ordered to keep the Disney/Pixar success rate going.
Box Office Potential: $240 to 260 million

Over the Hedge (DreamWorks) - May 19
Bringing the popular comic strip to life, DreamWorks' latest animated venture Over the Hedge features the voices of Bruce Willis, Gary Shandling, Wanda Sykes, Steve Carrell and William Shatner, and oh, yes, it gives another chance for co-director Tim Johnson, who helmed DreamWorks early CG animated effort Antz and their 2003 2-d animated flop Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas, another chance to make good. DreamWorks will be hoping to continue the success of last year's Madagascar, though I'm sure they'd rather see this become another tentpole franchise ala "Shrek," which might be hard with only three weeks to earn its money before Cars steals away its business. It will have the benefits of the extended Memorial Day weekend, but reaction will probably mixed compared to the more critic-friendly Cars.
Box Office Potential: $150 to 170 million


Monster House (Sony Pictures) – July 21
Sony gets into the computer animated game with a movie based on a children's book about a house that eats anything that gets near it, using the same performance capture techniques as The Polar Express. It looks like it could be a fun movie even if the animation seems a bit shaky, but avid computer animaniacs might notice a few familiar voices from other CG movies like Steve Buscemi and Jason Lee, the bad guys of Monsters Inc. and The Incredibles and Christopher Guest regulars Catherine O'Hara and Fred Willard, who both provided voices for Disney's Chicken Little. Kids should like the premise, too.
Box Office Potential: $75 to 85 million

The Ant Bully (Warner Bros.) – August 4
Warner Bros. also tries to get back into the animation game after the poorly received but well timed holiday film The Polar Express, which ended up earning over $160 million thanks to its holiday themes. Featuring the voices of Julia Roberts, Meryl Streep, Nicolas Cage and Paul Giamatti, it's about an insect-killing kid who is shrunk down to ant-size as punishment, and the computer animation used makes it look alarmingly like old school CG animation circa DreamWorks' Antz and Pixar's A Bug's Life. Younger kids probably won't care, but parents' been-there-done-that attitude, as well as the late summer release might make this one a harder sell. Should also prove that big name stars can't always sell animated movies.
Box Office Potential: $50 to 60 million

Barnyard (Paramount) - July 28
Steve Oedekerk, the man behind Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius, returns with another computer animated film co-produced with Nickelodeon Films. It's the one movie in the genre that is likely to get lost in the shuffle of stronger films by coming out in the week between Monster House and The Ant Bully. It doesn't help that it looks a lot like Disney's Home on the Range in 3-D and it doesn't have the voice talent of the other big summer animated movies.
Box Office Potential: $30 to 35 million

In Part 2 of our Summer Preview, we'll look at some of the comedies and horror movies coming out this summer. Check back later in the week for that as well as the Weekend Warrior's comprehensive list of what he thinks will be the Top 10 movies of the summer of '06
 
Worldwide

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown ($565,3 million)
2. Inside Man ($160,8 million)
3. The Pink Panther ($156,3 million)
4. Big Momma's House 2 ($135,1 million)
5. Scary Movie 4 ($128,6 million)
6. V for Vendetta ($121,9 million)
7. Nanny McPhee ($118,7 million)
8. Failure to Launch ($118,6 million)
9. Underworld: Evolution ($108,9 million)
10. Eight Below ($105,2 million)
11. Final Destination 3 ($101,6 million)
12. Firewall ($80,3 million)
13. Date Movie ($77 million)
14. Hostel ($76,6 million)
15. The Shaggy Dog ($73,3 million)
16. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion ($63,3 million)
17. Curious George ($58,3 million)
18. The Hills Have Eyes ($55,1 million)
19. The Wild ($53,5 million)
20. When a Stranger Calls ($53,4 million)
 
what the hell is Lady in the Water about? is it another village type movie?
 
MI3 was awesome movie for me and it have already had 83% from critics on Rotten Tomatoes site.

So I think it will make about $63m opening weekend.
 
The Summer Box Office Preview - Part 2
Source: Edward Douglas May 5, 2006


Continuing our look at the summer movies, we go from the big budget blockbusters to the more modestly priced comedies and horror flicks. At the bottom of this article, you can also check out the Weekend Warrior's projected list for the Top 10 summer movies.

(Disclaimer: Box office predictions are subject to change between the time of this posting and the regular weekly column, depending on theatre counts, marketing, and other factors. This is a preview of what to expect with rough projections based on current information.)

The Kings of Comedy
The summer of 2005 was a great time for comedy, thanks to a bunch of unexpected R-rated hits in Wedding Crashers and The 40-Year-Old Virgin. The latter propelled Steve Carrell into the comedy echelons, while the former solidified Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson as popular comedic draws. Vaughn and Wilson each have films this summer, while Carrell takes the season off in preparation for his holiday comedy, Evan Almighty. Still, this summer will see movies with Adam Sandler, Jack Black and Will Ferrell, all of whom should offer more than enough laughs for anyone looking for some this summer.


Click (Sony) - June 23
New year, new Adam Sandler movie, as he follows his hit remake of The Longest Yard from last summer, which grossed $158 million, with a new comedy that offers a high concept premise of a universal remote that can control anything in the universe, including wives, kids, bosses, etc. You get the idea. Like Jim Carrey's Bruce Almighty, the premise is solid enough that it should appeal to a huge audience beyond Sandler's normal fans, which certainly will give this the advantage for being the top comedy of the summer.
Box Office Potential: $140 to 160 million

The Break-Up (Universal) - June 2
As a response to last year's Mr. and Mrs. Smith with Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie, the former Mrs. Pitt, Jennifer Aniston, lashes back with a romantic comedy that teams her with her new (alleged) boyfriend Vince Vaughn, who just happened to also appear in Mr. and Mrs. Smith. And it's being released the same weekend, too! Though this isn't an action movie, the premise is that JenniVaughn™ are a couple who broke up, but are forced to live together to keep their condo. Like in "Smith," there's the irony of this (potentially) real-life couple fighting all the time, and just like that, all the curious rubberneckers will go see the movie to see if there are any clues of the tabloid reports being true. Directed by Peyton Reed (Bring It On), it also reunites Vaughn with his Swingers pal Jon Favreau, for those going to see this looking for a cool reason to do so.
Box Office Potential: $90 to 100 million

Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (Sony) - August 4
Less than two months after Cars and The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift drive into theatres, Will Ferrell takes on NASCAR in his attempt to bring back his fans after two poorly received 2005 movies. (At least Bewitched and Kicking & Screaming made $20 million their opening weekends.) "Talladega Nights" reunites him with Adam McKay in a movie that even sounds a bit like their 2004 hit, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy. Opening in early August, it may get hit with the normal late summer lull, but it should have a solid opening weekend, as it satiates racing and comedy fans alike.
Box Office Potential: $70 to 80 million


Nacho Libre (Paramount) - June 16
Jack Black returns to comedy for the first time in two years with a movie about a Mexican priest who moonlights as a masked wrestler in order to earn money for the orphans. Black's huge popularity among the college crowd and genre fans has only gotten bigger in recent years, especially after King Kong and this comedy stands a good chance to appeal to a lot of them, even if it's a risk releasing it in the middle of such a busy summer. Helmed by Jared "Napoleon Dynamite" Hess, this film should help solidify Black's already rabid fanbase.
Box Office Potential: $65 to 70 million

You, Me and Dupree (Universal) - July 14
After the success of Wedding Crashers, Owen Wilson tries to go it on his own after a few unsuccessful attempts. (Anyone remember The Big Bounce?) But he has some help from Matt Dillon and Kate Hudson, stars of There's Something About Mary and How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days. Wilson plays Dupree, Matt Dillon's annoying best friend who inserts himself into the quiet home life with Kate Hudson. Universal is hoping that pairing the stars of such big sleeper hits, under the aegis of Arrested Development directors Joe and Anthony Russo, will give them another huge summer comedy hit ala The 40-Year-Old Virgin, although this might get overshadowed by some of the other big movies surrounding it.
Box Office Potential: $60 to 70 million

Little Man (Sony) - July 5
The Brothers Wayans, who had such huge success with the "Scary Movie" films and 03's White Chicks, borrow an idea from Looney Tunes with Marlon playing a criminal little person, pretending to be a baby to hide from the cops, who is adopted by brother Shawn and Ray's Kerry Washington. It's going to be another stupid movie that the critics loathe, but the trailer certainly offers a lot of laughs, so it might not completely get lost in the shuffle, despite opening between Superman Returns and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest.
Box Office Potential: $40 to 50 million


Clerks II (The Weinstein Company) – August 18
One has to assume that Kevin Smith has a lot more fans now than he did in 1994, when his independent comedy Clerks, made for less than $250,000, changed the face of indie cinema. Twelve years later and five years after Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back, the movie that was supposed to wrap up Smith's five-movie "Jersey trilogy," he's returning to the characters who started it off, Randal and Dante, now facing their thirties and new jobs at a fast food restaurant. Smith's fans will probably make this their #1 priority in life, but few others.
Box Office Potential: $30 to 35 million

Beerfest (Warner Bros.) – August 25
The Broken Lizard troupe return, this time with a new studio, and the premise couldn't be more appealing to their fans as two college guys go to Munich where they get caught up in the super-secret Olympic style beer drinking games that go on there. While it could be their first chance to recapture some of the success of their movie, Super Troopers, this is also coming out in late August, which is never a good time to release a movie.
Box Office Potential: $25 to 30 million

Oh, the Horror, the Horror…
Although horror movies have often been relegated to January or the fall, this summer sees a pretty extensive variety of thrillers with only two remakes in the bunch.


Snakes on a Plane (New Line) – August 18
A movie that began its campaign as soon as the title was announced, this high profile B-movie puts Samuel L. Jackson on a plane… with a lot of snakes! Paul Greengrass might have some competition for plane-related thrillers come August when Dave Ellis, director of Final Destination 2, keeps the recent spate of plane-related thrillers going strong. Jackson may be just fine as a U.S. Marshal, but our money is on the snakes being the big draw, and by the time this finally comes out, any surprise of it doing well probably won't be a surprise anymore.
Box Office Potential: $70 to 80 million

The Omen (20th Century Fox) - June 6
Boy, those kid actors these days are actually a lot like the kids in the '70s, particularly those that are the spawn of Satan. The '70s horror classic, originally directed by no less than Richard Donner, gets the remake treatment at the hands of John Moore (Flight of the Phoenix) with Julia Stiles and Liev Schreiber playing the proud stepparents of the anti-Christ. It even has '70s horror veteran Mia Farrow of Rosemary's Baby playing the tyke's evil nanny. Opening on a Tuesday to take advantage of the "06.06.06" release date, look for this to find a lot of new fans, at least its opening week.
Box Office Potential: $55 to 60 million

Pulse (Dimension Films) - July 14
The original Japanese horror film from Kiyoshi Kurosawa barely made a mark when it was released here by Magnolia Pictures, but Dimension are hoping that this English remake will do business closer to The Ring or The Grudge, than Disney's '05 flop Dark Water. This thriller about an internet virus killing everyone it contacts will certainly freak a lot of people out if it's anything like the original, especially since the language and cultural barrier that made the original so hard to palate won't be an issue. Instead, they'll get to see stars like Christina Milian, Ian "Lost" Somerhalder and Kristin Bell being terrorized by this unknown force.
Box Office Potential: $45 to 50 million

The Reaping (Warner Bros.) – August 11
Hilary Swank follows her latest Oscar win the same way she did the first time, by making a genre film, this time playing a Christian missionary who suffered a loss of faith after her family was killed and is investigating what seems to be Biblical plagues that have befallen a small Louisiana town. This is opening the same weekend as last year's Skeleton Key, another thriller set in Louisiana, although combining Swan with horror might be less persuasive at getting fans of either into theatres, especially with Snakes on a Plane opening the following weekend.
Box Office Potential: $30 to 35 million


See No Evil (Lionsgate) - May 19
Pro wrestler Kane makes his big screen debut as a brutal killer in this slasher flick, the first collaboration between Lionsgate and WWE Films directed by adult film and music video director Gregory Dark. While it should have some decent crossover appeal between wrestling and horror fans, opening against The Da Vinci Code is not the smartest thing Lionsgate could possibly do, even if it will skew towards younger males. Expect one week of decent business and a sharp drop to follow.
Box Office Potential: $25 to 30 million

An American Haunting (After Dark Films) - May 5
The first release by new distributor After Dark Films (through Freestyle Releasing) is a ghost movie based on Brent Monahan's novel "The Bell Witch: An American Haunting," starring no less than Sissy Spacek and Donald Sutherland. As scary as the movie might be, they're releasing it against Mission: Impossible III, which almost makes it impossible for it to get much attention, although maybe the interesting "based on real life" premise will help it get some business before it's knocked out of theatres by other high-profile blockbusters.
Box Office Potential: $20 to 25 million

The Big Unknown
Every summer, there's a bunch of movies that look interesting but really could go either way as far as business, because though the ideas sound promising, they could get lost in the shuffle of movies that are getting much more promotion and attention. Here are a few of them:


Miami Vice (Universal) - July 28
Jamie Foxx and Michael Mann are reunited after 2004's Collateral in this remake of Mann's popular '80s television show, except that this doesn't have the benefits of Tom Cruise, instead starring Colin Farrell as Detective Sonny Crockett to Foxx's Ricardo Tubbs. This looks like it's going to be a grittier crime film than the original show, but the combination of known title with respected filmmaker could allow this to do a decent amount of business in a week with no other strong movies. Phillip Michael Thomas was unavailable for comment.

Just My Luck (20th Century Fox) – May 12
Lindsay Lohan breaks away from Disney and makes her move into grown-up roles with this high concept romantic comedy about an extremely lucky girl, I mean, woman, who loses her luck when she kisses a handsome loser, played by Chris Pine. Will Lindsay's teen and older female fans be along for the ride on this movie that seems a bit too much like her arch-rival Hilary Duff's A Cinderella Story?

My Super Ex-Girlfriend (20th Century Fox) - July 21
In the latest comedy from Ivan (Ghostbusters) Reitman, the Bride from Kill Bill AKA Uma Thurman dons superhero tights for a romantic comedy that has Luke Wilson learning of his girlfriend's superpowers only after he dumps her, which turns out to be a big mistake. Since there hasn't been a trailer, I'm not sure if this is being marketed towards the female romantic comedy set or the male superhero/genre set, but it might find some fierce competition for both in M. Night Shyamalan's Lady in the Water.


Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties (20th Century Fox) - June 16
The pasta-chomping fat cat is back, once again voiced by Bill Murray, but will kids rush out to see it the way they did the original movie two years ago? Family sequels tend to show diminishing returns and parents might choose to wait until DVD for the sequel which brings Garfield to England in a similar way as Frankie Muniz's poorly received sequel, Agent Cody Banks II. The first one exceeded expectations in '04, but it also didn't come out after two big computer animated family comedies, which will certainly have an impact on this doing well.

The Lake House (Warner Bros.) - June 16
Can Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock revive their earlier onscreen magic from Speed with a romantic drama that mixes The Notebook with Frequency? That's certainly the question being asked in this movie about a woman who starts corresponding with a man who lived in the same house two years earlier. It's a strange premise, but the first English film from Argentine filmmaker Alejandro Agresti just have that Sleepless in Seattle vibe that will bring in older women, or at least, that may be what Warner Bros. hopes, as they continue this summer's "water" theme. (They really should have released Aquaman this year.)

World Trade Center (Paramount) – August 9
After the general apathy towards Paul Greengrass' recent United 93, one has to wonder whether Oliver Stone's dramatization of the events of September 11, 2001, featuring actors like Nicholas Cage, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Maria Bello, will be received any more favorably. Besides the familiar cries of it being "too soon," Stone may also have to get past the cries of, "Your last movie Alexander really sucked!" and hope that his older fans are interested enough in the topical subject matter to forgive him.

The Weekend Warrior's Projected Top 10 Movies of Summer:
(All box office figures are projected through Labor Day.)

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (July 7 - Disney) - $310 million

2. The Da Vinci Code (May 19 - Sony) - $275 million

3. Superman Returns (June 30 - WB) - $265 million

4. Cars (June 9 - Disney/Pixar) - $245 million

5. X-Men: The Last Stand (May 26 - FOX) - $212 million

6. Mission: Impossible III (May 5 - Paramount) - $190 million

7. Over the Hedge (May 19 - DreamWorks) - $165 million

8. Click (June 23 - Sony) - $145 million

9. Poseidon (May 12 - Warner Bros.) - $140 million

10. Lady in the Water (July 21 - Warner Bros.) – $125 million

And the Winner Is?
While Warner Bros. certainly has more movies with potential to reach the top 10 this summer than other studios, one can't overlook the fact that Disney might have both "Pirates of the Caribbean" and Cars in the over-$200 million slot, and that alone should give them the edge this summer with Warner Bros. and Sony fighting it out for second place by the time we get to Labor Day.
 
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