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That article might be exagerating a bit, films released around that time rarely are front-loaded, their advantage lies in usualy staying strong at the box office for weeks to months, as there's not much competition. As cool as that could be, i doubt it will get close to Avatar, that was the kind of hit that only comes out now and then, as it gave people a completely new and unique experience. Avatar was also a brand new property, nobody had watched it before and you had to do so in order to form your opinion, it was pretty much an event, Star Wars however, is a big franchise that pretty much everyone has an opinion on, and not all of it is going to be positive.
Star Wars has a rabid fanbase that will watch the movies multiple times, but while it's arguably one of the most popular film series ever, there are still some who could care less. Don't tell me you don't know anyone who dislikes the series, i know a few people who even refuse to give the teasers and trailers a try. Avatar and Titanic on the other hand were those sort of event films you had to see in order to talk about, there wasn't any fully formed opinion yet and that ended up being an advantage.
That said, Force Awakens does have a fair chance at surpassing Titanic, that film was released almost 20 years ago and latest releases are getting closer to surpassing it's original run.
My money's on Force Awakens making 1.7- 2 billion, if it's realy good and everything's gearing towards it's favor, it might even reach Titanic's present gross. But from what i hear, December is going to be a month when China doesn't get other films besides their oun, so how much SW does there might be affected.
Anyway, Force Awakens is going to break an opening record for December, but considering how that month usualy has lower opening than summer, i do fear some headlines like "The New Star Wars falls short of the predictions" due to how high some of the predictions are right now. Exagerated expectations are what i think might end up creating some bad buzz, it was wise of Disney to say they were keeping their box office expectations low.
I kind of agree with Lord's point above. I think most people would agree that SW is the biggest franchise of all time. But being the biggest franchise can actually limit your one off maximum performance as everyone is already aware of what you can offer. Probably why one-offs Titanic and Avatar (and even the first Star Wars film which at the time was obviously not a franchise) blew away every franchise in history at the time they came out. People didn't quite know their opinions on Titanic and Avatar (& A New Hope) before they went to the big new event movie of their time but to those who went and found it wasn't their thing, the equivalent thing to do with a big existing franchise for those people is to not turn up in the first place. With too much awareness based on prior films, those guys already know if a franchise, no matter how loved, is not quite their thing while the others have the advantage of being able to disguise that. I know a lot of people who for sure will never got to see another Avatar film (even if all the sequels are very successful), no matter how well reviewed/received it is as they've discovered now it's not quite to their taste but the first film still managed to get their money.I think you're dead wrong, with all due respect. It's the most beloved franchise of all time. It's bigger than Batman, Bond, Avengers, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Transformers, Pirates of the Caribbean, Jurassic Park, Fast and Furious... It's just the biggest thing ever. It's like a religion to people, man. The prequel trilogy missed the mark big time, but the combined factors of Ford/Fisher/Hamill returning, plus a respectable director, promising trailers, fans frothing at the mouths for something real (practical effects, real environments)... It's just going to be ridiculous.
None of that is to say TFA and especially it successors can't get the number one spot, just that I think they'll have a hard time having a similar box office impact for the time they come out and will be more dependent on non like-for-like factors such as expanding overseas markets or years of inflation etc to get there.