2009 Box Office Predictions

[mclay18]

Word of mouth helps too, not just the target demographic.

 

[Excel]

Everybody who wants to see it will see it opening weekend; fanbase films are getting incredibly front loaded (friday 13th made 41 opening weekend and will finish with aabout 66 total).

 

[Excel]

Final trailer adjustments:

T4
Opening day: 28.5 Million
Friday: 23.4 Million
Saturday: 25.4 Million
Sunday: 21.6 Million
Monday; 14.9 Million

Opening weekend: 70.4
Memorial day weekend: 85.3
5 day: 113.8 Million

2nd weekend: 35.2 Million
3rd: 20.7 Million
4th: 13.9 Million
5th: 9 Million

Total: 265 Million

 

[Excel]

Reports are coming of huge presales for watchmen; 75 million ow looks like the floor at this point.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

People are jumping the gun too quick into these $70 million+ projections for Watchmen.

For one, we just saw last week how pre-ticket sells for Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience were huge and many projected a $30-$40 million opening...and to say they were "off" is an under statement (i.e. actual opening - $12 million!)

The Business Insider is now saying the sales are good, but not that good.

 

[Excel]

If it follows 300s pattern it will explode on Wed and Thursday, thats what most are expecting.

 

[Excel]

Star Treks final trailer gives me a lot of faith in my prediction, I just wish theyd gone with a better release date. Mid June is EMPTY.

 

[Excel]

UP looks better than originally thought.

Watchmen had just udner 5 at midnight but sales arent as huge as expected; loko for 25-27 Fri for a 60-62 weekend.

 

[Excel]

This has been a whirlwind year. Watchmen and duplicity were duds while monsters vs aliens and fast and furous broke out huge; way above tracking.

May is going to be very intersting...my gut is saying low on wolverine.