Box Office 2016

[:eek:]

Another year is here and to kick things off here's the result of Fandango's survey of most anticipated movies.

Most Anticipated Movie:
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. Finding Dory
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
4. Untitled Jason Bourne Movie
5. Captain America: Civil War
6. Star Trek Beyond
7. Independence Day: Resurgence
8. X-Men: Apocalypse
9. Zoolander No. 2
10. The Jungle Book

As ususal no big surprises and most of these will likely end up in top ten or at least top twenty when the year's over. Personally I think it will be a softer year than 2015, or at least it probably will feel softer after a year when records fell left and right thanks to Jurassic World and Star Wars.

 

[Sithborg]

I doubt Zoolander will. The box office has not been kind on sequels to old comedies.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Hopefully, BvS DoJ will kill everything else at Box Office.

 

[BoredGuy]

Lotta sequels on that list

I'm already sick of Star Wars (thanks a lot nerds)
and it's a shame, I was pretty excited for Rogue One, but all the Force Awakens hype has just worn me down
so if I have to pick, hoping for CW to top the list

 

[jokesonm3]

Not sure who'll be the biggest.

I mean even though as a DC fan i'm rooting for BvS to be Number One, it is honestly fair game between BvS, Civil War, Rogue One and Finding Dory for that Number One spot.

Well see.

 

[Sithborg]

Personally, I'm betting on something surprising. I don't think a superhero movie is going to end up on top this year. I also doubt Rogue One will.

EDIT: Actually, I think Fantastic Beasts could tap into some built up Potter demand, in a lesser way than what Star Wars did.

 

[cheungcheung]

Fandango polled folks in the midst of Star Wars mania (end of December). Of course rogue 1 was ranked high.

If I were to guess the number 1 for 2016, I'd say civil war right now...

 

[Marvin]

Personally, I'm betting on something surprising. I don't think a superhero movie is going to end up on top this year. I also doubt Rogue One will.

EDIT: Actually, I think Fantastic Beasts could tap into some built up Potter demand, in a lesser way than what Star Wars did.

2015 had two films pull out of nowhere and surprise everyone though with proper insight people may have been able to see them coming. I'm talking Fast7 and JW. The only big "sure surprise" I can currently see is fantastic beasts with maybe the joker movie late summer having something too maybe...

3 movies came out last year and outshown the cbm sub genre, it's possible the cbm films won't be on top again this year(doubt it though).

Starwars is in an interesting place, usually sequels do more than launchers(reboot starters) however when the numbers are this big it's throws everything off. The next star wars movies could do that sequel thing and simply do more, or everything could just be a downward slope now that the lightning in bottle event has happened. Similar to aou though some would argue the quality plays a role in that scenario. I do think the more you get your brand out there the bigger it grows internationally but with domestics sometimes things just get stale and diminishing returns are inevitable. Marvel has been pretty good about curve balls and extending the trilogy fatigue of their brand, starwars looks to have a plan in place for that too but it could go either way and a movie a year may just diminish it all faster. Like instead of episode 8 being the big sequel to 7, its' the second sequel and coming off of a film that couldn't possibly be as 'special' as the big return sort of deal. I think as long as they sell the unfolding saga they will keep interest. I think that worked for the prequels as well.
Guess we'll see.

2016 is sure to be interesting, and I expect even bigger things from international numbers. Unlike my starwars intl feeling, I suspect harry potter is a intl beast in and of itself especially in an expanded market it could pull a 'fast one' and run on foreign numbers alone.
I do think they kinda missed the boat in not getting more bankable talent but...

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Both Civil War and BvS will do a billion domestic. If Stars of War can do it so can General Muricah and Batgod.

Yep. Yep. Yep.

 

[liesse00]

Some of these, especially the ones coming out later in the year, are shot in the dark predictions. The kids and animated movies are tough to predict. These are just general area domestic total predictions.

Civil War - 500 million I think it's Civil Wars year to lose
Finding Dory - 420
Batman V Superman - 350 Can't bring myself to go much higher, they're so many unknowns.
Star Wars Rogue One - 350 Will perform more like a normal Star Wars movie
Moana - 300 It's Disney so....
Alice TTLG - 280
IDR - 250
Bourne - 240
X-Men Apocalypse - 230
Star Trek - 230
Ninja Turtles - 215
Fantastic Beasts - 200
Secret Life of Pets - 190
Warcraft - 185
Doctor Strange - 185
Ghostbusters - 180
Angry Birds - 180
Sing - 180
Jungle Book - 180
The Great Wall - 180
The Hunstman Winters War - 170
Suicide Squad - 170
Tarzan - 160
Ice Age - 160
Assassins Creed - 150
Deadpool - 150
Now You See Me 2 - 150
The BFG - 150
Ben-Hur - 150 It's a remake but it's a religious movie. Still unsure on this one.
Kung Fu Panda 3 - 150
Pete's Dragon - 130
Gambit - 130
Inferno - 130
Neighbors 2 - 120
Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 - 120 Another tough one.
Zootopia - 110
The Conjuring 2 - 100
Zoolander 2 -100

 

[:eek:]

Looks like Deadpool won't get any money from China:

http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/648427-deadpool-denied-release-in-china#/slide/1

 

[Wildcard]

Both Civil War and BvS will do a billion domestic. If Stars of War can do it so can General Muricah and Batgod.

Yep. Yep. Yep.

Nah, no movie this year will come anywhere close to the success of TFA. Except maybe Rogue One, and even then it isn't going to break all the records TFA did & be the absolute behemoth that it is.

But yeah, BvS & Civil War will do exceptionally well, just not TFA well.

 

[:eek:]

Top 5 Worldwide

1. Quo Vado? $63 million
2. Ride Along 2 $43,8 million
3. Sherlock: The Abominable Bride $ 31,3 milion
4. The Forest $24,9 million
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi $19,2 million

 

[Warhammer]

Bourne 5, The Conjuring 2 and Inferno will be dark horses this year. They will exceed box office expectations.

 

[TheVileOne]

Bourne 5, The Conjuring 2 and Inferno will be dark horses this year. They will exceed box office expectations.

How could Bourne 5 be a darkhorse? This is the dream team back together. The Bourne Ultimatum made $227 million domestic. Universal is not looking for a darkhorse, they are looking to get the franchise back on track.

No movie this year, not Civil War, not BvS will come close to Star Wars' domestic take. That was the perfect storm right there.

 

[ripse]

1. Ca 3 civil war

2. Warcraft

3. X-men apocalypse

 

[Warhammer]

How could Bourne 5 be a darkhorse? This is the dream team back together. The Bourne Ultimatum made $227 million domestic. Universal is not looking for a darkhorse, they are looking to get the franchise back on track.

No movie this year, not Civil War, not BvS will come close to Star Wars' domestic take. That was the perfect storm right there.

It will be a dark horse because it will exceed box office expectations. I'm thinking high 200s which is much more than The Bourne Ultimatum.

 

[:eek:]

Top 5 Worldwide

1. Ride Along 2 $70,1 million
2. Quo Vado? $67,6 million
3. The 5th Wave $ 38,5 milion
4. Sherlock: The Abominable Bride $35,9 million
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi $33,7 million

 

[CaptainWagner]

It will be interesting to see what happens with Dr. Strange coming out two weeks before Fantastic Beasts. If Strange is as great as it sounds and looks so far, it could potentially steal thunder from Potter.

 

[Wildcard]

Indeed, although I think it'll probably turn out to be an interesting event where fans of both love each and they go back and forth between being #1. Assuming, of course, that each film is worth the hype.

And wow at how much of a bomb The 5th Wave ended up being. I'm not a fan of the book nor do I care to see the movie but I know this was supposed to be a franchise starter. Even with a $38 million budget it's not going to be a success. Yikes.

 

[:eek:]

Top 5 Worldwide

1. Kung Fu Panda 3 $118,7 million
2. Ride Along 2 $89,3 million
3. Quo Vado? $69,3 milion
4. The 5th Wave $65,8 million
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi $45,1 million

 

[Lord]

If Finding Dory pulls a Toy Story 3, i think it has very high chances of winning the year.

When it comes to Billion grossers, i think they'll be Rogue One, Finding Dory, Batman V Superman, Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them and Captain America: Civil War. Alice 2 and Independence Day 2 might also blow up if the situation is right for them. Not sure if any of the year's billion grossers will reach Avengers/ Jurassic World heights though.

 

[Marvin]

It will be a dark horse because it will exceed box office expectations. I'm thinking high 200s which is much more than The Bourne Ultimatum.

With everyone talking about how the film will exceed expectations, this is effectively raising 'expectations'. The luxury of being both this and some underdog of sorts doesn't exist in my book.

What's more, that last one didn't seem to do so hot with the bourne name front and center. It paints a picture about what the brand can do alone(and with a so so received film). Not exactly batman if you will.
Plus there is the followup to 'bad' film damage.

Now some people I see under the impression that this film is simply coming 'off of the hype of Ultimatum', effectively and simply overlooking that last film. I suppose this is possible, after all star wars arguably benefited from the prequels stigma.

Still, see the first point.

 

[Wildcard]

If Finding Dory pulls a Toy Story 3, i think it has very high chances of winning the year.

When it comes to Billion grossers, i think they'll be Rogue One, Finding Dory, Batman V Superman, Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them and Captain America: Civil War. Alice 2 and Independence Day 2 might also blow up if the situation is right for them. Not sure if any of the year's billion grossers will reach Avengers/ Jurassic World heights though.

Agreed, I don't think any movies this year will do numbers like that, 2015 was lightning in a bottle when you look at the performances of the blockbusters. Even though the blockbusters of this year look promising, I haven't seen any indicators that they'll break out to be that big.

 

[Warhammer]

With everyone talking about how the film will exceed expectations, this is effectively raising 'expectations'. The luxury of being both this and some underdog of sorts doesn't exist in my book.

What's more, that last one didn't seem to do so hot with the bourne name front and center. It paints a picture about what the brand can do alone(and with a so so received film). Not exactly batman if you will.
Plus there is the followup to 'bad' film damage.

Now some people I see under the impression that this film is simply coming 'off of the hype of Ultimatum', effectively and simply overlooking that last film. I suppose this is possible, after all star wars arguably benefited from the prequels stigma.

Still, see the first point.

Naw.

The points you brought up like The Bourne Legacy being a disappointment at the box office and critically as well as the fact that The Bourne Ultimatum came out 9 years ago are valid. However, I'm predicting this film grosses higher than The Bourne Ultimatum because people want to see Matt Damon's return. Nostalgia will play it's hand in the grosses and exceed the numbers of the third film. This is an old dog learning a new trick. We'll see in August.