Mish,
Observing the attached August 2009 GDP report you’ll note that Canada’s economy is still receding and it has not escaped recession. Furthermore, the only sectors that are growing are from the result of one of two things: stimulus and a massively inflationary credit environment.
Canadian Real Estate:
Canada’s home prices have skyrocketed in this recession. When the dollar was at 97 cents US a couple weeks ago, average Canadian home prices hit roughly $320,000 US – an all-time high. Residential mortgage debt has over doubled since 2002. We will surpass the US in per capita residential debt within the next year. In 2009 alone, we will add 100 billion in fresh residential mortgage credit (equivalent of about 1 trillion in the US on a per capita basis)
The average price of a detached Toronto home has approached $600,000. I have attached a home listed at $559,000. The home is about a 15 minute drive from downtown in an average location. It is clearly overvalued.
The listing-to-sales ratio in Toronto, the fifth largest city in North America, has surpassed the late 1980’s bubble. Moments after that point Toronto’s housing market crashed losing 25% of its value and the country went into a deep recession. Toronto’s housing market took 12 years to recover, and needless to say its recovery was brought on by a massively inflationary credit environment.
In the greater Vancouver area, our third largest metropolis after Montreal, the average price of a detached home in March 2008 was $921,000. In fall of 2008 the market tanked, but only to find itself growing again in 2009. By September 2009 the average price was back up to $904,000. Average household incomes in Vancouver are lower than average incomes in Toronto. They hover somewhere around the $70,000 mark.
All of these prices are one hundred percent attributable to ultra low interest rates and a government insured credit market. CMHC, the equivalent of Fannie and Freddie, has expanded securitization of mortgage debt to nearly 100% of the credit market in Canada. The government of Canada insures the securities. The healthy banks in Canada, something that gets bragged about internationally, have fewer loans on their books then they did in 2007. This is despite the credit market growing by 30% since then.
The Bank of Canada has already admitted to a real estate bubble in Canada. Mark Carney, head of the BOC, has threatened to manipulate the mortgage market if borrowers don’t come to their senses.