Could X3 Be Wolverine's "Last Stand"?

[Lightning Strykez!]

Could X3 Be Wolverine's Last Stand?​

A Debate Hosted By Lightning Strykez!

Note to readers: I wanted to explore this discussion beyond the "Rate The Leaked Film" thread because I think it warrants a thread of its own.

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Do you know what happens when a pebble is thrown into a pond? It creates a ripple effect. Sometimes those ripples are very far-reaching...and in some cases reaching areas far beyond the original point of impact.

In the past, we've seen films that have been regarded so badly that they've inadvertently affected future sequels. Prime examples of this can be found when one looks at what happened with the Fantastic Four, Batman and even Hulk films and their sequels. History may repeat itself on May 1st. X-Men: The Last Stand was the last FOX film that could possibly be linked with Wolverine and therin lies a potential problem.

My concern is that any bad taste left in the mouths of X3 moviegoers may impact their views of Wolverine--perhaps even discouraging them to see the film come May 1st. In addition, I believe a lot of X-Men fans were specifically alienated by X3's development--and turned off even further by the way FOX habitually produces its Marvel films. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that studio is doing much different in its development and release of Wolverine.

Personally, I think it's appropriate to say that Wolverine is indeed feeding off of the momentum (or lack thereof) leftover from X-Men: The Last Stand. In much the same way that the Schumacher Batman films initially hurt Batman Begins, I honestly think X-Men: The Last Stand has the potential to really hurt Wolverine in its first 2 weeks of release. Both films are under the same "umbrella" so to speak.

What is your opinion?

Questions For Discussion:​

1.) Do you think is it fair to count X-Men: The Last Stand as the immediate predecessor to this Wolverine film?

2.) Do you think X-Men: The Last Stand will impact Wolverine in any way at the box office?​

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[icelemt38]

I say yes X3 no matter what will be seen as a predecessor to Wolverine and will perhaps impact the BO. I know the people behind Wolverine doesn't want it to be that way but it was inevitable, and the inclusion of the X-Men Origins in the title doesn't help either. Most people I've talked to have called it another X-Men film they're excited to see, so yea, it shouldn't be but it is.

 

[Electrix]

It's been a while since we've seen one of these epic discussion posts Lightning

I don't think X-Men 3 will impact Wolverine much at all. The negativity surrounding X3 is mostly fanboy based. The average movie goers seemed to like it, as they go to see movies to be entertained, and X-Men 3 was entertaining (if you weren't a hardcore fan witnessing your favourite characters being killed off or underused).

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Electrix. :heart:

 

[TheDarkKnight08]

Believe it or not, while the comic-fan community may dispise X3, the general audience, or some of them, actually enjoyed it. I know of people who got into X-Men and the comics, because of that movie, so it'll actually help it, at least with the type of people I know. Since it was the simpler, more commercial of the franchise, that's probably why it was so popular. My opinion on it still stands, X3 had too many characters, with little development and a mediocre characterization of Logan, but it was still "Ok".

 

[[A]]

of course the general audience liked it--Ratner does that.

 

[icelemt38]

It's been a while since we've seen one of these epic discussion posts Lightning

I don't think X-Men 3 will impact Wolverine much at all. The negativity surrounding X3 is mostly fanboy based. The average movie goers seemed to like it, as they go to see movies to be entertained, and X-Men 3 was entertaining (if you weren't a hardcore fan witnessing your favourite characters being killed off or underused).

That's very true, its just being around here and being surrounded by so much negativity makes me forget sometimes that fanboys actually don't make up very much of the overall BO of the big movies at all. I do understand the fanboys frustrations but X3 was not nearly as bad as people here make it out to be.

And I guess having the X-men label could be a smart idea as it brings in that big pre established audience. It's just that I know Hugh doesn't want people to think this is X-Men 4 when a lot of people actually do think its an X-men 4.

 

[TheDarkKnight08]

of course the general audience liked it--Ratner does that.

I know. There are people at my school who think Rush Hour 3 was funnier than Superbad...

 

[FreeRadical]

I notice that there's not much hype about the film (here in the UK). Magazine racks consist of Spock/Kirk, Megan Fox and Terminators. Plus with a leaked, dvd quality work print and where are the people who were on the hype in the X3 boards in the months leading up to that film?

I thought they would be here, with only 3 weeks to go before Wolverine is out.

Another factor could be overexposure of the character.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

That's very true, its just being around here and being surrounded by so much negativity makes me forget sometimes that fanboys actually don't make up very much of the overall BO of the big movies at all.

Okay. Let's go with your argument for a moment: If people generally liked X3 then where did the general audience support go in its second week of performance? If you recall, it dropped 67% percent--which is a terrible slide. Granted, fanboy audiences may have helped buoy it for the weeks afterward, but it's not like the G.A. really supported it after the release weekend.

I believe that general audiences will behave in much the same way for Wolverine--if it is perceived as being lackluster.

 

[Nevaratoiel]

I think after Wolverine Origins there's a lot more story for Wolverine. Like his meeting up with Gambit, his 'brotherhood' with Monsieur Tooth....

 

[icelemt38]

I think Wolverine's 2nd week whether its good or bad will drop significantly anyways because of the direct audience hit of Star Trek which everyone seems to be going ga ga over. I don't think Wolverine will drop as much as X3, I personally didn't like X3 all that much and earlier was referencing the negativity here concerning Wolverine, not that of X3. Someone said it on another thread, that the X-men films are front loaded in that they make huge amounts of money opening weekend but afterwards they don't stick around as long as other comic book movies do. Take X2 for example, considered one of the best comic book movies ever, it's opening weekend was 40% of its total gross in the US. Compare that to Batman Begins where its opening weekend was 27% of its total gross, and Iron Man at 31%.

And I said it before, I think Wolverine is loads better than X3 even in its work print form and this is coming from a non fanboy type. If X3 could get 56% on rottentomatoes, then no doubt Wolverine can get better and be in the fresh range in terms of critics, and everyone I've talked to that aren't fanboys that have seen the work print loved it. Even with that though, the opening weekend will most likely make up a big percentage of the movie's total BO regardless because it just follows the trend of the previous X-men films.

 

[Downhere]

Okay. Let's go with your argument for a moment: If people generally liked X3 then where did the general audience support go in its second week of performance? If you recall, it dropped 67% percent--which is a terrible slide. Granted, fanboy audiences may have helped buoy it for the weeks afterward, but it's not like the G.A. really supported it after the release weekend.

I believe that general audiences will behave in much the same way for Wolverine--if it is perceived as being lackluster.

Ok, there are many things about X3 that I complained about, but when it comes to it's second weekend drop I must put this in context. It seems everyone thinks it had this huge drop, which it did, but what people must understand is that the film opened on Memorial Day weekend. Everyone was off on that Monday and therefore the opening weekend was inflated due to it's first Sunday acting like an additional Saturday. Therefore, it was expected to have a huge drop because of this. Let's not forget that the X-Men films have never had good legs when it comes to Box Office and the trend continued throughout the series. So, when talking about the second weekend drop of X3, put it in context of when it was released.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Good point, and it is well taken.

 

[BMM]

True. I think, however, it's worth noting that The Last Stand is the only Memorial Day weekend film whose legs were so weak, that the film was unable to match what it made in its first four days throughout the remainder of its entire domestic run. While it made a lot in its first four days, it isn't as though it made so much that it couldn't match it. For instance, Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End and Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull outperformed The Last Stand's Memorial Day weekend and both movies continued to outgross their opening weekend performances. In fact, The Last Stand is the only Memorial Day weekend opener incapable of matching its Memorial Day weekend gross.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

*looks back at Downhere*

Now what do you have to say to that?

 

[Downhere]

True. I think, however, it's worth noting that The Last Stand is the only Memorial Day weekend film whose legs were so weak, that the film was unable to match what it made in its first four days throughout the remainder of its entire domestic run. While it made a lot in its first four days, it isn't as though it made so much that it couldn't match it. For instance, Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End and Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull outperformed The Last Stand's Memorial Day weekend and both movies continued to outgross their opening weekend performances. In fact, The Last Stand is the only Memorial Day weekend opener incapable of matching its Memorial Day weekend gross.

But...the films you mentioned are much bigger than X-Men. Indiana Jones was 20 years in the making and Pirates is a juggernaut. Also, the X-Men films have always been front heavy. Even the great X2 only mustered a 2.5 internal multiplier, so it makes sense that X3 had an even worse multiplier with the bigger opening weekend.

 

[BMM]

Right, but it's not just those films. It's all Memorial Day weekend films, or at least as many as boxofficemojo provides. I simply think it's something worth noting. In my opinion there was a bit of a disconnect with the audience. I can't think of many films, even beyond those that open on Memorial Day weekend, incapable of matching their opening weekend numbers. You say that those films are huge, but I think it's worth arguing that The Last Stand was going to be huge until people actually saw it. The hype was there. The numbers support that. Even movies with massive hype, the kind like The Last Stand had, that open huge relative to the size of their respective fanbases among the general audience, have a follow through that The Last Stand simply didn't.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

^ I have to agree.

I keep hearing folks say that the general audience "liked" X3, yet the film was abandoned during its run. Where did all the support evaporate to?

 

[BMM]

Exactly. It's an interesting question. As for how X-Men: The Last Stand's reception will affect X-Men Origins: Wolverine, as I said in another thread, I have no idea. I don't think this movie will receive the same kind of attention, positive or negative, as it would if this were a direct sequel to The Last Stand. Moreover, given the state of the country (or perhaps the world), I think people are looking to go out and have a good time, and I think Wolverine looks fun, even if it turns out to be the same tired forumla wrapped in a different package. I think it will open well. Beyond that, who knows?

 

[CelticPredator]

^ I have to agree.

I keep hearing folks say that the general audience "liked" X3, yet the film was abandoned during its run. Where did all the support evaporate to?

Oh, you're just a hater grasping straws. EVERYONE loves X-3. Its the greatest movie ever of all time, ever.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Oh, you're just a hater grasping straws. EVERYONE loves X-3. Its the greatest movie ever of all time, ever.

Yes. And Halle Berry's Storm was teh awsome!!11!

 

[Nivek]

I don't know, I think that X3 notorious reputation taints it, but hell, Meet the Spartans beat Rambo. Anythings possible.

 

[chaseter]

I do think that X3 will have a negative imact on this film albeit a small one. X3 was riding off the waves of the fan and critically well received X2. X3 had a huge drop off the second week and that is a neutral indicator of quality because a film's legs are a somewhat good tell of how good a film is and how well it was received by the fans and the general audience.

I do think this will have a good opening weekend and then a massive drop like with X3. I also think critics will give this a mediocre to alright review and will be received the same by the majority of
fans. The main negative things that will be pointed out are Wolverine's treatment, the lack of supporting character development, bad pacing, and some bad writing due to some cheesy moments, some cheesy dialogue, and some massive plot holes for convenience. Some good things that will be pointed out are Liev's performance and treatment and some of the action sequences.

If what I say does in fact happen, I think Wolverine 2 is doomed and will probably be the end to this franchise but I know that they will make one more X-Men movie even if this one bombs which it won't.

 

[Nivek]

Given that I still see "laser sharp issues" in the TV spots doesn't instill me with a great deal of confidence that they havn't changed much that will change opinion.