Discussion: Relations with Russia

ISIS claims responsibility for attack in busy Moscow-area concert venue that left at least 40 dead​


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www.cnn.com

Earlier this month, the US embassy in Russia said it was "monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow," including concerts. The embassy warned US citizens to avoid large gatherings.

In a speech Tuesday to Russia's federal security agency, Putin called the embassy's warnings about potential terror attacks in Moscow "provocative," saying "these actions resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society."
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Alex Marquardt, CNN: "Since November there has been 'fairly specific' intelligence that ISIS-K wanted to carry out attacks in Russia, sources tell me, @NatashaBertrand, @jmhansler. US intelligence warned Russia about it. Unclear if that drove the Mar 7 embassy warning."

March 9:

www.rferl.org

Kazakhstan Confirms Two Citizens Killed In Russia In What FSB Calls Antiterror Operation

Kazakhstan on March 9 confirmed that two of its citizens were shot dead in Russia in what the Kremlin said was an antiterrorism operation that prevented an attack against a synagogue in the Moscow area.
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org
 
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Wow, I thought for sure it was Ukraine people. :( Oh, wait. I thought Trump defeated ISIS all by himself. :o
 
InCali said:
I can't wait to hear the Russia/China apologist's take on this.....Oh wait......change that to I won't be able to see said response.
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For those who are curious to hear voices from non-White countries, here's what the representative of Algeria had to say:

 
Bhadrakumar on Putin's election victory and the growing schism between the global majority and the West.

www.indianpunchline.com

Putin’s victory is a geopolitical reality - Indian Punchline

Thousands of people gathered on Moscow’s Red Square to celebrate President Vladimir’s election victory, March 18, 2024 The Russian presidential election has vividly brought out the fault lines in international politics in a way that seldom happens. That is because the political personality of...
www.indianpunchline.com
 
Dr. said:
Moscow terror attack deaths now over 100.

www.nbcnews.com

Moscow concert attack live updates: Suspects arrested; death toll rises to 115

Four suspects in the Moscow concert attack at Crosus City Hall have been arrested, President Vladimir Putin was told, and the death toll rose to at least 93.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
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Simply terrible. I've seen people celebrating this attack based on Russia's atrocities in Ukraine, but that's nonsensical. Putin and his cronies will have to pay for their crimes, not the innocent civilians caught in a terrorist attack. Such awful times.
 
It's interesting they've already caught some of the perpetrators. Often these kinds of terrorists kill themselves, not this time.

Russia will try and get them (one said he did it for money) to talk so as to track down the people (likely in) Kiev, London, and Washington who are responsible.

I assume that the purpose of the attacks is to get Russia to overreact, as the US did after 9/11 and Israel did after 10/07. I don't expect that to work.
 
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DA_Champion said:
It's interesting they've already caught some of the perpetrators. Often these kinds of terrorists kill themselves, not this time.

Russia will try and get them (one said he did it for money) to talk so as to track down the people (likely in) Kiev, London, and Washington who are responsible.

I assume that the purpose of the attacks is to get Russia to overreact, as the US did after 9/11 and Israel did after 10/07. I don't expect that to work.
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Yeah, that surprised me, too. The shooters try to get killed or kill themselves. The attack still has all the marks of an ISIS attack versus Ukraine that would go after infrastructure.
 
www.theguardian.com

Islamic State’s deadly Moscow attack highlights its fixation with Russia

The ISKP regional affiliate has a haven in Afghanistan and carried out recent bombings in Iran, suggesting it has capacity for major atrocities
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Speculation about who carried out the shooting at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow has quickly indicated that the terror attack will have outsized political implications in Russia and abroad.

A claim has surfaced that the attack was carried out by Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) a regional affiliate of the IS terrorist organisation. IS has been implicated in some of Russia’s largest recent terror attacks, including the 2017 bombing in the St Petersburg metro that killed 15 and injured 45.

US intelligence told American news agencies that there’s “no reason to doubt” the IS claims of responsibility.

The group, which is a branch of IS mainly based in Afghanistan, has increasingly focused its attention on Russia since the United States left Afghanistan in 2021. The group was formed in 2015 by members of militant groups, including those from Pakistan and Uzbekistan, and is active in central Asia and Russia. It carried out twin bombings in January in Iran that killed nearly 100 people.

“Isis-K and its allies retain a safe haven in Afghanistan, and they continue to develop their networks in and out of the country,” said Gen Michael Kurilla, the commander of US Central Command, during testimony to the House armed services committee in early March.

“Their goals do not stop there. They have called for attacks globally on anyone not aligned with their extremist ideology, and Taliban efforts to suppress the group have proven insufficient.”

The attack in Iran demonstrated the group’s “resiliency and indicates that they retain the capability and will to conduct spectacular external operations”.

Russia’s FSB security service said that on 7 March it had prevented an armed attack by the group on a synagogue in the Kaluga region near Moscow.

“It was established that the militants of an international terrorist organisation are preparing an attack on the parishioners of the synagogue using firearms,” the FSB said in a statement.

Within hours, the US embassy issued an unusual warning for American citizens to avoid large gatherings and in particular concerts, repeating calls for US citizens to leave Russia. “The embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and US citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours,” the embassy said on its website.

CNN reporters said they had been told that “since November there has been ‘fairly specific’ intelligence that Isis-K wanted to carry out attacks in Russia … US intelligence warned Russia about it”.

Putin changed the course of the Syrian civil war by intervening in 2015, supporting President Bashar al-Assad against the opposition and Islamic State.

“Isis-K has been fixated on Russia for the past two years, frequently criticising Putin in its propaganda,” said Colin Clarke of the Soufan Center, according to Reuters.
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Time for something more strategic.

There are claims that the French may send between 2000 and 12000 troops to Ukraine. These would be legitimate French troops, under French command, rather than mercenaries, where the latter occupy a different space under international law.

What I gather is that these troops would at first indirectly support Ukraine. They would do things like takeover the policing of the Ukrainian army, or the Ukrainian border with Belarus, so that those Ukrainian personnel can then be send to the front. So they themselves would be combat-capable troops but not actually combat troops. That makes it not as obvious for how the Russian army should respond. It's different from, say, French troops going to the front line and firing on Russian forces. In that situation it's obvious what to do.

So then Russia has two choices.

If it directly fires on those French troops, which Putin claims they would do and it's easy to identify 2,000 troops from satellite, it can be a disincentive to send further troops. It sets up a cost. On the other hand, France might then petition for Article 4 or Article 5.

This might be a preferred solution by the Russian MoD. If they have to fight NATO, then Ukraine is the right place to do it as they have better knowledge of the terrain and shorter supply lines. If Americans are balking at sending 61 billion dollars in aid, they will definitely balk at sending supplies to maintain an entire American army of 200,000+ troops some 5,000 miles away. That can be a way to deplete NATO. And if NATO sends troops, they then have the option of accepting their allies' offers to send supporting troops, which they have previously declined.

But the cost would be a few hundred thousand Russian lives, turning that part of the world into a pure wasteland, with the risk of further escalation.

NATO in turn also is facing a lose-lose. At this point, there is no possibility of Ukraine winning without direct NATO support. In that scenario, Russia owns the black sea, humiliates NATO, takes away their ability to bully the rest of the world, etc. So maybe they should intervene. But the risk then is the loss of tens of trillions of dollars, millions of NATO soldiers, and the risk of escalation.
 
DA_Champion said:
Time for something more strategic.

There are claims that the French may send between 2000 and 12000 troops to Ukraine. These would be legitimate French troops, under French command, rather than mercenaries, where the latter occupy a different space under international law.

What I gather is that these troops would at first indirectly support Ukraine. They would do things like takeover the policing of the Ukrainian army, or the Ukrainian border with Belarus, so that those Ukrainian personnel can then be send to the front. So they themselves would be combat-capable troops but not actually combat troops. That makes it not as obvious for how the Russian army should respond. It's different from, say, French troops going to the front line and firing on Russian forces. In that situation it's obvious what to do.

So then Russia has two choices.

If it directly fires on those French troops, which Putin claims they would do and it's easy to identify 2,000 troops from satellite, it can be a disincentive to send further troops. It sets up a cost. On the other hand, France might then petition for Article 4 or Article 5.

This might be a preferred solution by the Russian MoD. If they have to fight NATO, then Ukraine is the right place to do it as they have better knowledge of the terrain and shorter supply lines. If Americans are balking at sending 61 billion dollars in aid, they will definitely balk at sending supplies to maintain an entire American army of 200,000+ troops some 5,000 miles away. That can be a way to deplete NATO. And if NATO sends troops, they then have the option of accepting their allies' offers to send supporting troops, which they have previously declined.

But the cost would be a few hundred thousand Russian lives, turning that part of the world into a pure wasteland, with the risk of further escalation.

NATO in turn also is facing a lose-lose. At this point, there is no possibility of Ukraine winning without direct NATO support. In that scenario, Russia owns the black sea, humiliates NATO, takes away their ability to bully the rest of the world, etc. So maybe they should intervene. But the risk then is the loss of tens of trillions of dollars, millions of NATO soldiers, and the risk of escalation.
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How does NATO "bully the rest of the world"?

You mean bully dictators?
 
So much death just because of Greed, religious extremism...its tragic.
If ISIS wouldnt have come forward this fast with the attack, you can bet Putin would have tried to blame Ukraine on it.
There is even sadly a good chance he let this happen to trick the people.
That it happened this close after the elections which had rumblings of people being not as happy with Putin, is suspicious.
Sadly, Putin is as Treacherous as they come...as we have seen countless of times, he has no problem getting people killed and lying about it.

But either way, its just heartbreaking, innocents shouldnt be the ones who have to suffer.
 
Russia adds 'LGBT movement' to list of extremist and terrorist organisations

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www.reuters.com
Russia has added what it calls the "LGBT movement" to a list of extremist and terrorist organisations, state media said on Friday.

The move was in line with a ruling by Russia's Supreme Court last November that LGBT activists should be designated as extremists, a move that representatives of gay and transgender people said they feared would lead to arrests and prosecutions.

The list is maintained by an agency called Rosfinmonitoring that has powers to freeze the bank accounts of the more than 14,000 people and entities designated as extremists and terrorists. They range from Al Qaeda to U.S. tech giant Meta and associates of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
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