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Discussion: The REPUBLICAN Party VI

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That's a bit of a surprise as Mitt Romney is a corporatist (and protecting the ultra-rich is all Steve Forbes has every cared about) and has a better shot of beating Obama than Rick Perry. But Forbes has never struck me as the sharpest political mind, so....

I hope this continues. I flipped by Fox News on Friday afternoon to see how they'd spin the Iraq War ending. Hilariously, I watched the first 15 minutes of their new 5 o'clock talk show that replaced Beck and they didn't mention Iraq once and it didn't look like it would come up later. Just ignore reality?

Anyway, as I was watching, they compared Perry and Romney ads and you got a sense that they all seem resigned that Romney will win, but their hearts say Perry. If Bachmann really does drop out of the race by December and Cain inevitably stumbles more, maybe Perry can still win the base's heart? A Democrat can hope.
 
DACrowe said:
That's a bit of a surprise as Mitt Romney is a corporatist (and protecting the ultra-rich is all Steve Forbes has every cared about) and has a better shot of beating Obama than Rick Perry. But Forbes has never struck me as the sharpest political mind, so....
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I agree. Mitt Romney seems like the more compatible figure for Forbes to endorse and has a much better shot at defeating Obama than Perry does.

Anyway, as I was watching, they compared Perry and Romney ads and you got a sense that they all seem resigned that Romney will win, but their hearts say Perry. If Bachmann really does drop out of the race by December and Cain inevitably stumbles more, maybe Perry can still win the base's heart? A Democrat can hope.
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Bachmann isn't going to drop out of the race by December. The Iowa Caucuses are on January 3, so she'll most likely muster til then and then drop out on January 4.

As a matter in fact, I think this race is now settled. Romney is going to win and he'll win early with victories in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada. Oh yeah, I'm convinced that Romney will win Iowa and South Carolina now.
 
I'm convinced he'll win New Hampshire, Florida and most likely Nevada. I'm still skeptical he'll win Iowa and South Carolina though. I think everyone is operating now under the assumption that Romney will be the nominee....but a Perry surprise will not be unwelcome on the left. ;) :oldrazz:

I'm just saying.
 
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DACrowe said:
I'm convinced he'll win New Hampshire, Florida and most likely Nevada. I'm still skeptical he'll win Iowa and New Hampshire though. I think everyone is operating now under the assumption that Romney will be the nominee....but a Perry surprise will not be unwelcome on the left. ;) :oldrazz:

I'm just saying.
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I think the social conservative bloc is just far too fractured for a victory in Iowa. While Cain will drop he will still have significant amount of support in Iowa. Bachmann still has significant amount of support in Iowa. Gingrich is rising in Iowa. Paul is consistently getting around 10+ percent of the polls. And Perry is very attractive to social conservatives as well.

Meanwhile Romney's support in Iowa is consistent in the 20+% range in Iowa, he still has some foothold from his 2008 network in the state, and social conservatives are starting to give him a look because he's pretty much the only candidate in the GOP field that has the capabilities of defeating Obama. It's better to have a flip flopping moderate in charge than someone who goes completely against everything social conservatives want after all.

Nevada is guaranteed to go for Romney. Did you watch the debate? Nevada loves him. And latest polling has him holding a commanding lead in the state.

As for South Carolina, McCain voters will most likely go for Romney this time around who is fueled by momentum from victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.
 
hippie_hunter said:
I think the social conservative bloc is just far too fractured for a victory in Iowa. While Cain will drop he will still have significant amount of support in Iowa. Bachmann still has significant amount of support in Iowa. Gingrich is rising in Iowa. Paul is consistently getting around 10+ percent of the polls. And Perry is very attractive to social conservatives as well.
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I see the logic, but I think there's a decent chance that because it's a caucus and not a primary, that whoever has the best organization (Perry) will be able to whip the caucuses into shape by day's end. Bachmann's support will be as fleeting in that state as John Edwards's was in 2008. Cain....well I don't take him seriously. He's ran to become a celebrity, sell some books and likely get a talk show on Fox News or elsewhere. The fact he became a frontrunner is a shock to him as much as us and he is clearly unprepared for it and isn't even seriously campaigning.

Nevada is guaranteed to go for Romney. Did you watch the debate? Nevada loves him. And latest polling has him holding a commanding lead in the state.
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I didn't watch the debate. But I expect him to win because Nevada is not a Christian values conservative state and is honestly quite purple. Romney works in that environment and will run strong on the economy which is where Nevada hurts the most. Though comments like just "let the housing crisis bottom out by doing nothing" are sure to hurt him some in a general there.

As for South Carolina, McCain voters will most likely go for Romney this time around who is fueled by momentum from victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.
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I don't think he'll win Iowa, so he'll have New Hampshire. Whoever wins in Iowa, likely Perry, will have some momentum going into South Carolina which is a very traditional, Christian, conservative state where social issues matter (this is the birthplace of the Civil War, after all). Romney isn't conservative enough for them on social issues, is a Mormon which may play a role in this particular primary (more than in any of the other early primaries) and will be viewed as a Northeasterner while Perry is a Southerner with a consistent ideological view.

Even if Perry wins Iowa and South Carolina, Romney will win the other three and kill Perry come Super Tuesday. I'm just saying, I don't think it will be the clean sweep that you imagine. And if Perry can win Iowa and SC, he can become the one disgruntled Tea Partiers latch onto. A long shot though, to be sure.
 
So Gingrich is basically calling most of the candidates uninformed dumbasses. Not so much in the opinion, but why you even have that opinion. I think Santorum made a similar point a few days ago, he said while he disagrees with Paul, the impression he got was at least Paul has knowledge of Foreign Policy, despite coming to a different conclusion. He was implying some of the candidates don't really even know what is going on. I think that is the angle Newt is coming from and I am inclined to agree.
"When you’re a speaker, in the sense of public speaking, you can pick your topics. When you’re a would-be president, every topic picks you. Whatever happens this morning is the new topic. So, you have to have the ability to get briefed, very fast. Ideally, you should know a fair amount going in. And I think one of the Republican weaknesses has been that we rely too much on consultants and too much on talking points. And we don’t rely enough on actually knowing things. If you’re going to lead the country and change history, you had better know a heck of a lot before you start, because there’s not much time for learning on the job. And as Obama’s proven, youth and inexperience are interesting, but they can also be a disaster.”
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I think I actually agree with Newt Gingrich.

...I feel dirty.
 
DACrowe said:
I see the logic, but I think there's a decent chance that because it's a caucus and not a primary, that whoever has the best organization (Perry) will be able to whip the caucuses into shape by day's end. Bachmann's support will be as fleeting in that state as John Edwards's was in 2008. Cain....well I don't take him seriously. He's ran to become a celebrity, sell some books and likely get a talk show on Fox News or elsewhere. The fact he became a frontrunner is a shock to him as much as us and he is clearly unprepared for it and isn't even seriously campaigning.
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Taking Cain and Bachmann seriously is indeed ridiculous, but they will still have a decent amount of support in Iowa that would otherwise go to Perry. Same with Gingrich and Paul to a certain extent. And don't forget about Rick Santorum. Their support will be small and minimal, but it will take away from Perry quite a bit because there are just so many.

Don't forget that Romney still has a good amount of organization in Iowa. Last time around Romney got 25% of the vote in Iowa. And you also have to take into account that social conservatives had Mike Huckabee to coalesce around, they don't have that this time thanks to the social conservative faction being split between Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, and Gingrich. Some social conservatives are also starting to give Romney a second look because even they will admit that the economy is issue #1 in their eyes.

I didn't watch the debate. But I expect him to win because Nevada is not a Christian values conservative state and is honestly quite purple. Romney works in that environment and will run strong on the economy which is where Nevada hurts the most. Though comments like just "let the housing crisis bottom out by doing nothing" are sure to hurt him some in a general there.
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The crowds cheered for Romney and booed Perry as he attacked him. As for the general election, I think Romney is the favorite in the state. Nevada is one of the worst hit states in the recession and going by the recent special election, it seems like the Democrats have given up on Washoe County, and you can't win Nevada without Washoe.

I don't think he'll win Iowa, so he'll have New Hampshire. Whoever wins in Iowa, likely Perry, will have some momentum going into South Carolina which is a very traditional, Christian, conservative state where social issues matter (this is the birthplace of the Civil War, after all). Romney isn't conservative enough for them on social issues, is a Mormon which may play a role in this particular primary (more than in any of the other early primaries) and will be viewed as a Northeasterner while Perry is a Southerner with a consistent ideological view.
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Remember that John McCain won South Carolina in 2008 against the very traditional, Christian, social conservative, Southern governor Mike Huckabee. Most McCain voters will most likely end up going towards Mitt Romney which constitutes 33% of the vote. He'll have a lot of momentum for him if he wins Iowa. Endorsements from Jim DeMint (who endorsed Romney in 2008 and still has a very good relationship with Romney) and Nikki Haley (who is most likely to endorse Romney) would help him tremendously as well.

Even if Perry wins Iowa and South Carolina, Romney will win the other three and kill Perry come Super Tuesday. I'm just saying, I don't think it will be the clean sweep that you imagine. And if Perry can win Iowa and SC, he can become the one disgruntled Tea Partiers latch onto. A long shot though, to be sure.
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Actually, Super Tuesday favors Rick Perry quite heavily. Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas are states that would typically go for Perry. The only guaranteed states for Romney on Super Tuesday are Massachusetts and Vermont. And maybe Virginia and North Dakota will go for Romney, but those are big maybes.
 
hippie_hunter said:
Taking Cain and Bachmann seriously is indeed ridiculous, but they will still have a decent amount of support in Iowa that would otherwise go to Perry. Same with Gingrich and Paul to a certain extent. And don't forget about Rick Santorum. Their support will be small and minimal, but it will take away from Perry quite a bit because there are just so many.
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They do have support and if it was a primary it could drain Perry...but in a caucus his supporters likely will corral and browbeat their guy as the only serious anti-Romney candidate to vote for and elbow Bachmmann and co. out of contention.

Don't forget that Romney still has a good amount of organization in Iowa. Last time around Romney got 25% of the vote in Iowa. And you also have to take into account that social conservatives had Mike Huckabee to coalesce around, they don't have that this time thanks to the social conservative faction being split between Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, and Gingrich. Some social conservatives are also starting to give Romney a second look because even they will admit that the economy is issue #1 in their eyes.
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He does, but his personality and history just does not fit the GOP base in that state. He couldn't beat Huckabee, so I doubt he can beat Perry next year.

Remember that John McCain won South Carolina in 2008 against the very traditional, Christian, social conservative, Southern governor Mike Huckabee. Most McCain voters will most likely end up going towards Mitt Romney which constitutes 33% of the vote. He'll have a lot of momentum for him if he wins Iowa. Endorsements from Jim DeMint (who endorsed Romney in 2008 and still has a very good relationship with Romney) and Nikki Haley (who is most likely to endorse Romney) would help him tremendously as well.
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Different election. They knew after Bush they needed someone that appealed to the middle and went for McCain. McCain's biggest mistakes were pandering to the right and coming off as phony and confused, especially when he picked Sarah Palin as his VP running mate. But if you listen to Limbaugh or Fox News, they're convinced McCain was just too plain moderate. An angry base may be able to change the course in 2012....though I find that unlikely.
 
DACrowe said:
They do have support and if it was a primary it could drain Perry...but in a caucus his supporters likely will corral and browbeat their guy as the only serious anti-Romney candidate to vote for and elbow Bachmmann and co. out of contention.
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Except the only people currently supporting Bachmann, Santorum, etc. are their diehards. They're not going to switch unless they drop out beforehand.

He does, but his personality and history just does not fit the GOP base in that state. He couldn't beat Huckabee, so I doubt he can beat Perry next year.
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You're right that Romney doesn't have the personality or history to win Iowa. But he lost to Huckabee in Iowa in 2008 is because social conservatives had coalesced around Huckabee. There really wasn't a social conservative alternative to him. This time around, there are plenty of Huckabee-esque candidates.

Different election. They knew after Bush they needed someone that appealed to the middle and went for McCain. McCain's biggest mistakes were pandering to the right and coming off as phony and confused, especially when he picked Sarah Palin as his VP running mate. But if you listen to Limbaugh or Fox News, they're convinced McCain was just too plain moderate. An angry base may be able to change the course in 2012....though I find that unlikely.
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You're thinking of the extreme fringe of the GOP, despite what you may think of Republicans, that's not the entire party. There are still plenty of moderate GOP primary voters.
 
If Ron Paul isn't elected, whose the best option to fix this sour economy? Cain? Romney? Both favor big business and wall street. Bachmann? She hot, but I don't think so.
 
Bachmann is hot? What in the world...? And Romney would be arguably the one. But the economy is in such a position it doesnt matter who is elected they wont be able to do much irregardless of policy (and hopefully will be a one term president).
 
Bachmann is hot??

She looks bat**** insane in every picture ever taken of her.
 
Well I would love for the US to recover, especially for my business, but I think the circumstances of the world as is are making too large a hole to climb out of in 4 years at least. Whoever wins I feel is doomed politically. Doesnt matter how good/bad their policies are.
 
Quetzal said:
Well I would love for the US to recover, especially for my business, but I think the circumstances of the world as is are making too large a hole to climb out of in 4 years at least. Whoever wins I feel is doomed politically. Doesnt matter how good/bad their policies are.
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I wouldn't be too cynical: the U.S. economy will likely improve in the next president's term, or Obama's second term, just purely on technical reasons (typical recession cycles, although I concede that this recession is far from typical).

Whoever wins the next election will have their legacy pretty much set, because they get to be President and take credit for whatever happens during their term, just like Bill Clinton's second. If it happens to be the Republican, then he'll go down in history as some kind of god.
 
That Cain commercial is hilarious. The music sounds like it's from those cheesefest training videos I've had to sit through at work, and Cain's grin at the end looks like it's saying "yea, I know I'm ridiculous".

Also, since when is it considered appropriate for there to be smoking in a presidential campaign commercial? Surely some group out there is up in arms.
 
Schlosser85 said:
That Cain commercial is hilarious. The music sounds like it's from those cheesefest training videos I've had to sit through at work, and Cain's grin at the end looks like it's saying "yea, I know I'm ridiculous".

Also, since when is it considered appropriate for there to be smoking in a presidential campaign commercial? Surely some group out there is up in arms.
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But isnt smoking cool and patriotic?
trust9ale.gif


Personally the smile at the end makes it look likes he's gonna rape me and my whole family...
 
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