Financial Analyst Says Hollywood Sequels and Remakes Are Finally Getting "Played Out"

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Fans have been saying it for years: Hollywood is becoming too dependent on sequels, spinoffs and remakes. Now, the people Hollywood looks to for advice on trends are saying it too.

Deadline reports financial analyst Vasily Karasyov has released a report that states films based on previous intellectual properties “present [a] growing risk to film industry profitability.”

“The nature of any IP re-exploitation cycle (be it DVD, CDs, iTunes or superheroes) is such that despite how long it lasts, it ultimately fades,” Karasyov writes.

According to Karasyov, Hollywood is “at the tail end of the process” when it comes to mining their most valuable and recognizable assets. He believes they’ve now moved onto much lesser properties, and the results are showing.

Obviously he’s right. It’s something not only fans have been noticing; no less an industry expert than Steven Spielberg said he felt superhero films would go the way of the Western. All trends have their time in the sun, and then fade.

However, here’s the counter point. In 2011, this same gentleman said Hollywood should prepare for “The Death of Superheroes.” How’s that going? Sure it’ll come eventually but that was four years ago. Plus, his examples for this most recent statement, frankly, aren’t that great either. At least the ones Deadline uses.

He cites Ant-Man and Guardians of the Galaxy. Yes, both of those grossed less than The Avengers but they were obvious risks and each was way more successful than most anticipated. Then he looks at the recent Spider-Man films: Spider-Man 2 and 3, and then last year’s The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Sure those films show a decline (if not in box office, in terms of tickets sold) but the timing of those was ridiculous (only five years between the third film and an unrelated, rebooted version) and quality was an issue.

So again, it would be great if Hollywood took notice of this and started developing a lot more original content. It certainly worked this year with Inside Out, San Andreas, Straight Outta Compton and a few others. But at the same time, until a film like Avengers: Age of Ultron or Jurassic World truly tanks, this isn’t going to change. I mean - have you see the international box office returns on Terminator Genisys? It’s done over $350 million and counting.

A shift may be coming, but it’s going to be a while.

http://io9.com/financial-analyst-says-hollywood-sequels-and-remakes-ar-1732872883

Considering Sony just announced a reboot for MIB I don't think they got the memo yet

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

Yeah... This sky is falling thing about sequels is not accurate as to reality. People piss and moan about it all the time but the public still supports good and bad reboots and sequels to the tune of billions while more original stuff often under performs. Edge of Tomorrow was not near the hit it could have been for a number of reasons but a big part I suspect was that it was this original idea that took a little thought to get into.

And are we really seeing this so called fatigue? FAST AND FURIOUS, PITCH PERFECT, MINIONS, JURASSIC WORLD, RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, MISSION IMPOSSIBLE, MAD MAX and on and on... Seems sequels and reboots are doing ok and with SPECTRE, FORCE AWAKENS, CIVIL WAR, BATMAN V. SUPERMAN and others (including MORE sequels to the film's I already listed) on the way, this supposed armeggedon at the Box Office is likely not to occur.


However... Budgets across the board, not just for franchises or sequels in Hollywood are out of control, and that is an issue not just limited to these well known properties. There does need to be more discipline in that aspect but again... That is not an issue just about well known IPs.

 

[metaphysician]

This sounds like the perpetual wishful thinking by the pundits, desperately hoping for the end of the blockbuster era so that Real Art can, once again, dominate the silver screen like it was really meant to.

 

[titansupes]

Yep, I too call ******** on that guy.

 

[Thundarr]

They've been saying that since the 1980's. And remakes and sequels are still going strong 30+ years later. Granted there seems to be more of them now than there were back then, especially with the remakes. It used to be decades would pass before anyone ever thought of remaking a movie, today only a few years pass and we go "Hey! Let's remake (enter movie title here)!"

We might see more original movie content hit the screens eventually. But I doubt remakes and sequels will be going away any time soon.

 

[Sithborg]

[looks at the billion dollar movies this year]

Yeah, the sequel is dead...

 

[Marvolo]

Yeah thats why Jurassic World was a massive bomb at the box office...oh wait.

 

[dude stannis]

Part 4's performance will be really interesting to guage.

 

[titansupes]

^ Part 4 of what?

 

[Octoberist]

I do think it's funny that most here are even playing the devil's advocate, or willing to think about the remote possibility that the study might be right.

 

[dude stannis]

^ Part 4 of what?

I meant the follow up to Jurassic World, which would actually be Part 5 if I could count.

 

[Supernova]

Until sequels/ reboots and remakes all start bombing it isnt gonna stop. All of us on these boards know better by now but the general audience who just go based off trailers and name recognition dont care. I hate to see it but I can imagine when a regular joe goes to the theater on a saturday night and sees transformers 20 or some unknown movie he is most likely gonna go with what he knows and recognizes.

 

[titansupes]

I meant the follow up to Jurassic World, which would actually be Part 5 if I could count.

Haha, I see.

 

[MadVillainy]

Yeah... This sky is falling thing about sequels is not accurate as to reality. People piss and moan about it all the time but the public still supports good and bad reboots and sequels to the tune of billions while more original stuff often under performs. Edge of Tomorrow was not near the hit it could have been for a number of reasons but a big part I suspect was that it was this original idea that took a little thought to get into.

And are we really seeing this so called fatigue? FAST AND FURIOUS, PITCH PERFECT, MINIONS, JURASSIC WORLD, RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, MISSION IMPOSSIBLE, MAD MAX and on and on... Seems sequels and reboots are doing ok and with SPECTRE, FORCE AWAKENS, CIVIL WAR, BATMAN V. SUPERMAN and others (including MORE sequels to the film's I already listed) on the way, this supposed armeggedon at the Box Office is likely not to occur.


However... Budgets across the board, not just for franchises or sequels in Hollywood are out of control, and that is an issue not just limited to these well known properties. There does need to be more discipline in that aspect but again... That is not an issue just about well known IPs.

This.

If people, especially people on here are so against sequels, reboots, etc. and want original movies then they need to put their money where their mouths are.

[looks at the billion dollar movies this year]

Yeah, the sequel is dead...

Exactly.

 

[Blind_Lawyer]

Deadline reports financial analyst Vasily Karasyov has released a report that states films based on previous intellectual properties “present [a] growing risk to film industry profitability.”

Remakes and milking existing intellectual properties for film ideas is as old as film itself. Everyone acts like this is some new trend. Take just about any culturally important piece of literature and look up how many movies have been made based on it (Dracula, Frankenstein, Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde, Little Women, Les Miserables, etc.). And if it were a successful play or musical? You can bet they've been churning out films based on those plays since the dawn of cinema.

Today's film landscape isn't some chain of remakes, sequels, spin offs, or movies based on other properties; it's a link in a chain that's been going on for more than a century.

 

[CaptainWagner]

Yeah, this guy could really stand to take a look at the year's top box office...

 

[Teelie]

Superhero movies are not Westerns. The main difference between them is Westerns were from a very specific era and location. Superhero movies can exist in any era and are not tied down to only being in the western United States or even the midwest or south like Mexico.

They will fade but they won't go away. There is always going to be at least a few of them going around the theaters for some time to come. I don't expect them to ever go away completely. There is too much versatility in them for superheroes to truly play out.

 

[Sithborg]

I think if this year has taught us anything, its that superhero films will not be at the top of the box office. I mean, this has been a shocking year at the box office. Who would've expected Avengers to be at third place at this point in time.

 

[MadVillainy]

I mean it's not that surprising.

 

[Doctor Jones]

It's a trend that's happened for years. In 2012 we all thought TDKR would reign supreme following TDK's success, yet Avengers took the crown. Same with this year but look what happened. I'm sure when JW's sequel comes out the next big thing will overtake that. You can just never predict these things. Something new comes along and it resonates more with people and the quality happens to be there.

I think it just comes down to quality. These movies will flop if they suck. If every blockbuster that came out this year was a FF we'd be in trouble. But that's not the case. There's distinct differences in what goes into a successful movie and a bad one. Or sometimes it's not a bad movie and it flops. It's a variety of things that's difficult to pinpoint. I think it comes down to quality and timing. The original big films are failing because those original films just aren't really good films. From a critical standpoint, sequels and superhero films have been higher rated over the years than the Jupiter Ascending or Tomorrland. The quality is in these superhero films and sequels. Yes I want to see more original content, but we are finally in the golden age of quality blockbusters. Years ago critics complained about wanting for higher quality blockbusters and we're finally getting them and now... people are complaining there's too many, despite the quality being there.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

I think the biggest surprise would be if Star Wars doesn't de-throne Jurassic World

 

[MadVillainy]

I think the biggest surprise would be if Star Wars doesn't de-throne Jurassic World

Now THAT would surprise me

 

[Doctor Jones]

Depends on the quality, but it has the timing to do it. The legs into the new year will help it big time.

 

[dude stannis]

Superhero movies are not Westerns. The main difference between them is Westerns were from a very specific era and location. Superhero movies can exist in any era and are not tied down to only being in the western United States or even the midwest or south like Mexico.

You can get modern day westerns, Euro-westerns, South Korean westerns. You can get variety. But the fact of the matter is, Westerns never went away. Neither will superheroes.

Depends on the quality, but it has the timing to do it. The legs into the new year will help it big time.

Plus, the PT's reputation has softened over time too.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I mean the PT still made huge bank. Regardless of quality, SW is one of the few franchises that will make bank on principle. So if this movie is of high quality and better than the prequels, yeah this can do something heavy. Especially for December which has potential to have the biggest opening weekend ever. And then Christmas?