Matt's Thread of Racing...

[NewYorkSpider]

I agree that someone else HAS to win this year and take the title away from Johnson to generate some buzz. I like Hamlin, but he has the worst luck when in a winning position, and with wins up for grabs this year for anyone, wins are going to be more vital than ever during the Chase.

It seems like when someone has found something to challenge Johnson with, they falter the next season. Gordon in '07 and Edwards in '08. Gordon went winless in '08 and Edwards has failed to reach victory lane this season. If Kyle Busch could get back on a hot streak, he could make things interesting.

I'll be rooting for Martin, but this seems to be Stewart's year, and Gordon/Johnson are looming. It's very difficult to really get a good prediction this year. (Don't remind me how many winners you've picked this year.)

Are you a fan of any particular driver? I kinda cheer for Edwards, while still rooting for the underdogs(Hamlin, Kahne, Newman). Since the chase was introuduced, only 1 driver has won the championship leading the points going into Richmond. (Stewart '05). What I find scary for the other 42 drivers, is Stewart is a second half driver.

I'm not sure I quite exactly follow how your method of seeding/points distribution works with Edwards and Newman having 0 wins and being 3 and 1 spot respectively ahead of two-time winner Matt Kenseth.

I've combined both chase systems used in the last 6 years. Kenseth being last in points would get 5000 points (Stewart would get 5055). Every driver after that would get subtracted 5 points. (Gordon would get 5050, Johnson 5045) Then the bonus points (Wins) would add on that total giving Kenseth 5020. I don't think it's fair for Kenseth to jump ahead of a guy like Hamlin, who's 5th in points and running consistent races. In this situation, Hamlin is still ahead of Kenseth based off his position in points. Kenseth would then only be 15 points behind him because of his 2 races wins. It's fair for everyone IMO.

Agreed, except that Mayfield has gone much further off the deep end saying that Nascar paid his step mother to say he used meth and that Nascar spiked his urine samples. That's borderline "Anal-probed redneck" conspiracy.

I highly doubt that NASCAR would get involved in a conspiracy. Especially when they're trying to reel back in their fans.

I like what one person said on Nascar Now, about possibly merging the Trucks and Nationwide series into one Truck series that would give the fans a true alternative to the Cup cars while still building up young drivers. It may have to happen with how badly the Nationwide series is bleeding.

Jenna Fryer is the one who suggested this if I'm no mistaken. It's not a bad idea. Kinda like a minor league system for NASCAR. If this does happen, they should eliminate NASCAR drivers from running it.

Trading JR for Patrick would just bring more scrutiny and more pressure to that team and make things 10 times worse for Patrick if she jumps to Nascar, replacing the (although fading) most popular driver in the sport.

Dale Jr said that the likelyhood of him bringing JR motorsports is 10%. So Hendrick bringing Danica directly to NASCAR is pretty slim. I think she'll end up with Hendrick eventually in the Nationwide series.

I haven't seen the comments from Childress, but I suspect he's not gonna let his once #1 driver walk away.

I don't think he's leaving either. Harvick is probably just frustrated with his poor season and letting Childress know about it.

If Stewart/Haas want a media **** storm, they can take huge gamble on signing Patrick.

Patrick was a guest of Stewart's at Phoenix either last season or this season. She also toured SHR last week. Stewart has said that he doesn't plan to add a third car next season. Brett Favre also said he was retired.

I can see David Ragan replacing one of the Red Bull Racing drivers or possibly splitting time with Bill Elliot at the Wood Brothers.

Even if Vickers re-signs with RBR, they have said to have plans of adding a third car. I don't think he'll end up splitting time with the Elliot. He has too much talent to be driving part time. I think he'll end up with either Yates (Satelitte Organazation of Roush), Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, Stewart/Hass Racing or a fourth Gibbs car.

Kasey Kahne isn't going anywhere.

I disagree. There are plenty of options out there for Kahne at the end of 2010. Keselowski could end up driving for another team, which means a vacant #5 car at Hendrick. RCR also has drivers with contracts up. I think Kahne should wait for his options.

Brian Vickers is a VERY interesting prospect if he walks from RBR. He seems to have trouble breaking through for those wins even though he's there time and time again. SHR (Stewart/Haas Racing) could do for him what it did for Newman.

I don't know if Stewart would take in a kind of guy like Vickers, though. Vickers has shown he has talent over the years, but like you said, he has trouble with breaking through. He'll still be a candidate if Stewart expands.

If Vickers stays, then Kesolowski has to become the leading candidate. You have the champion, marquee driver in Stewart, the revitalized "veteran" in Ryan Newman, who went from nowhere to Chase Contender, and the rookie "future franchise" in Kesolowski, who has plenty of raw talent and would benefit from the guidance of Stewart and Newman. To me, Kesolowski is their best option unless Vickers walks, at which point it could be a toss up.

I still think the drivers I mentioned are candidates for a third SHR car, even if he doesn't expand to to three cars next season. Keselowski should be in that car if he does, though.

Whew, this is more relevant talk about Nascar than a week of Nascar Now.

We're gonna be tired before Indy even gets here.

 

[El_Citrus]

It seems like when someone has found something to challenge Johnson with, they falter the next season. Gordon in '07 and Edwards in '08. Gordon went winless in '08 and Edwards has failed to reach victory lane this season. If Kyle Busch could get back on a hot streak, he could make things interesting.

Johnson is saving all his cards for the Chase. Lowe's, Martinsville, etc. The Chase Changer will be Talladega for all the drivers. Kyle Busch is starting to get more and more frustrated with his season and after the Chase he had last year, he could take himself out again. This Chase is wide open this year, but the favorite going in has to be Johnson, with Stewart and Gordon ready to take him down. Ironically, two of Martin's wins this year have come from letting the drivers ahead beat themselves and he just cruises on by, so I put him behind the top three in terms of chances of winning, with the rest of the field VERY close behind him.

Are you a fan of any particular driver? I kinda cheer for Edwards, while still rooting for the underdogs(Hamlin, Kahne, Newman). Since the chase was introuduced, only 1 driver has won the championship leading the points going into Richmond. (Stewart '05). What I find scary for the other 42 drivers, is Stewart is a second half driver.

I was an Earnhardt Sr fan, but never passed my fandom on to JR after 2001, so now I mainly root for the underdogs and especially Mark Martin this year, and I'm slowly coming around to rooting more for Stewart. A lot of the drivers currently in the chase are second half/Chase drivers. Johnson, Edwards, Stewart, former champ Kurt Busch. This Chase is gonna be wild.

I've combined both chase systems used in the last 6 years. Kenseth being last in points would get 5000 points (Stewart would get 5055). Every driver after that would get subtracted 5 points. (Gordon would get 5050, Johnson 5045) Then the bonus points (Wins) would add on that total giving Kenseth 5020. I don't think it's fair for Kenseth to jump ahead of a guy like Hamlin, who's 5th in points and running consistent races. In this situation, Hamlin is still ahead of Kenseth based off his position in points. Kenseth would then only be 15 points behind him because of his 2 races wins. It's fair for everyone IMO.

Oh okay, I see now. It has a very sound concept, rewarding wins while still rewarding consistency that actually is really growing on me but, I think ANOTHER change to the Chase could turn some people away with another new, initially confusing set of rules for the Chase. I would like to see this system played out on the track though.

I highly doubt that NASCAR would get involved in a conspiracy. Especially when they're trying to reel back in their fans.

Oh definitely, but that is what Mayfield is turning this into of is trying to turn this into. I think he's lost all his marbles, but he's not helping Nascar's image one bit.

Jenna Fryer is the one who suggested this if I'm no mistaken. It's not a bad idea. Kinda like a minor league system for NASCAR. If this does happen, they should eliminate NASCAR drivers from running it.

I, personally, would love to see the trucks get more publicity on either ESPN or a local channel by merging it with the Nationwide series. Some guys like Kyle Busch will still race because he races everything, but it gives young drivers one series to hone their talents while giving the fans a true, mainstream alternative.

Dale Jr said that the likelyhood of him bringing JR motorsports is 10%. So Hendrick bringing Danica directly to NASCAR is pretty slim. I think she'll end up with Hendrick eventually in the Nationwide series.

I agree wholeheartedly. Patrick has a good deal of talent, but the media seems doomed to crush her with the pressure to win constantly. That said, if she fails in the nationwide series, it won't be AS bad than the media in the Cup series, I don't think.

I don't think he's leaving either. Harvick is probably just frustrated with his poor season and letting Childress know about it.

Exactly.

Patrick was a guest of Stewart's at Phoenix either last season or this season. She also toured SHR last week. Stewart has said that he doesn't plan to add a third car next season. Brett Favre also said he was retired.

If Stewart (Or Newman) wins the Chase, I see him adding a third car next season. If I were Stewart, I would try to grab Kesolowski as soon as possible if he's intent on expanding to a third team.

Even if Vickers re-signs with RBR, they have said to have plans of adding a third car. I don't think he'll end up splitting time with the Elliot. He has too much talent to be driving part time. I think he'll end up with either Yates (Satelitte Organazation of Roush), Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, Stewart/Hass Racing or a fourth Gibbs car.

True. Ragan could replace Truex in the 1 car and work with JPM. That seems like the best option unless he goes to RBR.

I disagree. There are plenty of options out there for Kahne at the end of 2010. Keselowski could end up driving for another team, which means a vacant #5 car at Hendrick. RCR also has drivers with contracts up. I think Kahne should wait for his options.

Kahne is having a lot of production and success here in the middle of the season. If he keeps it up through the Chase and carries it through next year, he'll want to stay unless he goes where the money is.

I don't know if Stewart would take in a kind of guy like Vickers, though. Vickers has shown he has talent over the years, but like you said, he has trouble with breaking through. He'll still be a candidate if Stewart expands.

Vickers seems to be like Kyle Busch in that you can see the talent with his current team, but the wins just aren't there. A new setting, a new team could be just what Vickers needs, like Kyle Busch.

I still think the drivers I mentioned are candidates for a third SHR car, even if he doesn't expand to to three cars next season. Keselowski should be in that car if he does, though.

I agree. Kesolowski is a good foil to the driver that replaced Stewart, Logano, with being a young driver with a lot of talent. A friendly rivalry between them in Cup would be awesome if it develops, since in a few years, both drivers should be winning a lot of races.

We're gonna be tired before Indy even gets here.

If that's the case, we're gonna be zombies by the time the Chase is here.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

Johnson is saving all his cards for the Chase. Lowe's, Martinsville, etc. The Chase Changer will be Talladega for all the drivers. Kyle Busch is starting to get more and more frustrated with his season and after the Chase he had last year, he could take himself out again. This Chase is wide open this year, but the favorite going in has to be Johnson, with Stewart and Gordon ready to take him down. Ironically, two of Martin's wins this year have come from letting the drivers ahead beat themselves and he just cruises on by, so I put him behind the top three in terms of chances of winning, with the rest of the field VERY close behind him.

I agree that Johnson will be the favorite, with Gordon/Stewart/Martin right behind. Like I've said before, there's always that darkhorse that comes out of nowhere. It's kinda hard tell who that will be, though.

I was an Earnhardt Sr fan, but never passed my fandom on to JR after 2001, so now I mainly root for the underdogs and especially Mark Martin this year, and I'm slowly coming around to rooting more for Stewart. A lot of the drivers currently in the chase are second half/Chase drivers. Johnson, Edwards, Stewart, former champ Kurt Busch. This Chase is gonna be wild.

Same here. I was a Dale Sr. fan when I started watching NASCAR back in the mid-90's. After he died, I kinda cheered for Dale Jr./Harvick. Now I've started to cheer on Edwards since we share the same personality.

Oh okay, I see now. It has a very sound concept, rewarding wins while still rewarding consistency that actually is really growing on me but, I think ANOTHER change to the Chase could turn some people away with another new, initially confusing set of rules for the Chase. I would like to see this system played out on the track though.

Jay Hart had an idea for the chase that was just flat out horrible. His idea was, if you win a race, then you make the chase. This means that Keselowski, Lagano and Reutimann would be in the chase, when they're no even in the top 12. Darrell Waltrip also suggested this idea. I honestly don't like it one bit.

I, personally, would love to see the trucks get more publicity on either ESPN or a local channel by merging it with the Nationwide series. Some guys like Kyle Busch will still race because he races everything, but it gives young drivers one series to hone their talents while giving the fans a true, mainstream alternative.

I agree. I also think that the ARCA series could become like the college level. Then they could have like a draft(much like the NFL for talent). The worst teams would pick first, then Hendrick would get the last pick in the first round since Johnson won the championship. It would require some serious thought, but it could become something.

I agree wholeheartedly. Patrick has a good deal of talent, but the media seems doomed to crush her with the pressure to win constantly. That said, if she fails in the nationwide series, it won't be AS bad than the media in the Cup series, I don't think.

I also think people fail to realize that the race she won was on fuel mileage. She really hasn't challenged Franchitti(sp), Dixon, Castroneves and Weldon for a win. She's usually running around 5-10 during the race.

If Stewart (Or Newman) wins the Chase, I see him adding a third car next season. If I were Stewart, I would try to grab Kesolowski as soon as possible if he's intent on expanding to a third team.

Agreed.

True. Ragan could replace Truex in the 1 car and work with JPM. That seems like the best option unless he goes to RBR.

I think he'll end up with Gibbs if they can find a sponsor.

Kahne is having a lot of production and success here in the middle of the season. If he keeps it up through the Chase and carries it through next year, he'll want to stay unless he goes where the money is.

He's having a good season, but I don't the equipment he's in can really challenge Hendrick/Roush. I think he's moving on after 2010.

Vickers seems to be like Kyle Busch in that you can see the talent with his current team, but the wins just aren't there. A new setting, a new team could be just what Vickers needs, like Kyle Busch.

I think he'll be back with RBR.

 

[El_Citrus]

I agree that Johnson will be the favorite, with Gordon/Stewart/Martin right behind. Like I've said before, there's always that darkhorse that comes out of nowhere. It's kinda hard tell who that will be, though.

Guys like Newman and Montoya could fall quickly since they haven't gone after wins, but again, Bowyer got his first win at New Hampshire and shot himself up to third so it's difficult to say. I don't think anyone will put up much of a challenge to Martin, Stewart, Johnson, and Gordon though.

Jay Hart had an idea for the chase that was just flat out horrible. His idea was, if you win a race, then you make the chase. This means that Keselowski, Lagano and Reutimann would be in the chase, when they're no even in the top 12. Darrell Waltrip also suggested this idea. I honestly don't like it one bit.

Um, yeah, that's an absolutely horrendous idea. The system you proposed does make a lot of sense, but it would probably turn a lot of people away to change the chase rules AGAIN.

I agree. I also think that the ARCA series could become like the college level. Then they could have like a draft(much like the NFL for talent). The worst teams would pick first, then Hendrick would get the last pick in the first round since Johnson won the championship. It would require some serious thought, but it could become something.

Hmm, that could work, although most guys sign a deal with a Nascar team when they're still racing local tracks and nowhere near getting into any of the big 3, or even ARCA for that matter, and the ARCA teams have to affiliate themselves with larger teams to run, so it wouldn't be able to quite work like a college system. I do see what you're saying, I just think the current system is far too rooted all the way to the local guys to change.

I also think people fail to realize that the race she won was on fuel mileage. She really hasn't challenged Franchitti(sp), Dixon, Castroneves and Weldon for a win. She's usually running around 5-10 during the race.

Honestly, I've always thought of her as the Kournikova of racing. The media has fallen in love with her because of how insanely hot she is, but she only has mediocre talent. I'd consider it a mistake for Hendrick or Stewart to bring her on board their cup team, but she could shock everyone for all we know.

He's having a good season, but I don't the equipment he's in can really challenge Hendrick/Roush. I think he's moving on after 2010.

The 5 should be open in 2010, which I would jump on if I were Kahne and Martin wins the Championship this year. If he performs well and finishes strong, I think RPM should downgrade to three teams and focus on the 9, 43, and either the 19 or 44, since the production just doesn't seem to be there with 4 teams.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

Sorry I didn't respond to this sooner. It's been a busy week with San Diego Comic Con and my non-hype life.

Guys like Newman and Montoya could fall quickly since they haven't gone after wins, but again, Bowyer got his first win at New Hampshire and shot himself up to third so it's difficult to say. I don't think anyone will put up much of a challenge to Martin, Stewart, Johnson, and Gordon though.

I think New Hampshire being the first chase race really falls in the favor for winless drivers. Hamlin is always good on flat tracks, Newman is a two time winner at the race track and Montoya's flat tracks finishes this season are... 12th, 8th, 12th. He's been pretty consistent on flat tracks. He could capitlize on other drivers mistakes.

Honestly, I've always thought of her as the Kournikova of racing. The media has fallen in love with her because of how insanely hot she is, but she only has mediocre talent. I'd consider it a mistake for Hendrick or Stewart to bring her on board their cup team, but she could shock everyone for all we know.

That's the thing. If she ends up with some mediocre team, then she won't be able to show her full potential. I think her best oppurtunity is to sign with Ganassi Racing (IRL) and run more races in that league. This of course if Ganassi is interested. She does well there, then she could make that transition to Cup like Hornish/Montoya has made.

The 5 should be open in 2010, which I would jump on if I were Kahne and Martin wins the Championship this year. If he performs well and finishes strong, I think RPM should downgrade to three teams and focus on the 9, 43, and either the 19 or 44, since the production just doesn't seem to be there with 4 teams.

I feel bad for Elliott Sadler. The guy had shown he could win races and contend week in and week out. It just seems like this team isn't right for him. I would like to see him end up with RCR or RBR someday.

edit: I've now heard that David Ragan will stay with Roush and McMurray will be on the move.

 

[El_Citrus]

Ragan has more talent than McMurray, so I thought it was weird that Ragan would be the odd man out. I wonder if this means that Crown Royal/Irwin Tools will move to the 17 car next year.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

That's what I was thinking as well since DeWalt won't be returning.


I'm going to pick Denny Hamlin to win today.

 

[El_Citrus]

I'm not sure why, but I have this feeling that this track could belong to Jeff Gordon this year. I think he'll wind up in victory lane today.

 

[El_Citrus]

That's why I don't trust Denny Hamlin as a potential threat for the Chase. The guy has the WORST luck in the series. He should have two or three wins by now, but his bad luck is going to kill him in the Chase.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

I picked Hamlin in my race pool at work. It's gonna drop me down in points.

Gibbs has had a bad so far. Ky. Busch with a cut tire.

 

[El_Citrus]

And Kyle could potentially fall out of the chase with this race. I'm quite surprised that JPM has been dominant so far. He had a great race here last year, but right now he's just putting a spanking on this field, although to be fair, track position is VITAL as there is hardly ANY passing happening on the track.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

And clean air is another important factor with Montoya being in front. If his pit crew can keep up the good pit stops, then I see him winning this race. I'm also impressed with Vickers. He's been hanging right there in the top 5.


Kyle Busch is currently 14th in points. He's HORRIBLE on flat tracks. Not a good thing when they're headed back to Pocono.

 

[El_Citrus]

We've seen many races this year that were boring because they were "track position" races that relied on clean air heavily. This one's turning out much like those, although things should heat up near the end, hopefully.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

This changes everything. It's going to get very interesting.

 

[El_Citrus]

Wow, HUGE penalty for JPM and another disappointing end for Jr. I can't remember if there's a specific reason speedometers aren't in the cars because it would help eliminate penalties like that.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

They have a light on the dashboard that will turn green when they're under the pit road speed limit I'f i'm not mistaken. I think that's what Montoya was talking about.

How about Mark Martin again. Sitting pretty in second and is now in first because of someone elses mistake.

 

[El_Citrus]

Yeah, I know about the lights and Montoya was livid and swearing his light was green, but I think that there has to be some better way of tracking speeding because it seems like drivers are still saying they're being caught on judgment calls. A speedometer, something to help make things more accurate.

David Pearson may have a fight on his hands for the title of "Silver Fox" with the way Mark Martin has just sat back, cruised through the race, and let mistakes by the leaders hand him the win. I really am rooting for Martin this year; a championship for the old guy would be a tremendous story.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

Congrats to Jimmie Johnson. I hate Martin didn't win the race, but you can't hate the talent that Jimmie brings to the table. Jimmie has certainly made his way to the top 5 of best NASCAR drivers ever IMO.

 

[El_Citrus]

Petty
Earnhardt
Pearson
Gordon
Johnson?

I think he's even surpassed Gordon at this point.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

I agree with your top 5. I don't think Johnson has made it passed Gordon yet. Gordon still has four titles and three Daytona 500's. Jimmie is right on the edge, though.

 

[El_Citrus]

If Stewart can win the title this year, I would put him at a strong 6. He's definitely a top 10 driver of all time right now.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

I would keep him at 7th. Cale Yarborough should be sitting pretty at 6th. He should even be in the top 5.

 

[El_Citrus]

True. It is a very close race between Junior and Jimmie, but I have a feeling that Jimmie could end with 5 total championships and surpass his mentor, Gordon.

 

[NewYorkSpider]

Congrats to Hamlin. His grandmother died a few days ago, so it was an emotional victory lane.

 

[El_Citrus]

I didn't get to watch the race, but great win for Hamlin. Maybe this turns his luck around for the Chase?