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SACRAMENTO - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's lead over Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides has swelled to 17 points in recent weeks as he's struck popular deals to cut greenhouse gas emissions and increase the minimum wage, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
The nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found 48 percent of likely voters surveyed support Schwarzenegger; 31 percent back Angelides.
The results, if accurate, represent a 4-point gain for Schwarzenegger from last month's PPIC poll.
The poll, a telephone survey of 1,091 likely voters conducted Sept. 13-20, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
In July and August, PPIC pegged Schwarzenegger's lead at 13 points. Another statewide survey, the Field Poll, last put Schwarzenegger's lead at 8 points in July.
Fifteen percent of likely voters still remain undecided and six percent support third party candidates six weeks before the election, according to the PPIC poll.
Mark Baldassare, PPIC's research director, said the poll showed that the Democratic nominee has yet to rally key party constituencies.
Less than less than 60 percent of registered Democrats responding said they would vote for Angelides if the election were held now.
Specifically, Baldassare said Angelides must win over more Democrats, women, and Hispanics if he's going to seriously challenge the governor on Nov. 7.
Baldassare said one statistic from the poll best sums up Angelides' woes: Among likely voters in the state who disapprove of President Bush, Angelides holds a modest, 16-point lead.
"Angelides needs to be leading by a much larger margin in that category to make this a really close race," Baldassare said.
Nick Papas, a spokesman for the Angelides campaign, said the focus should not be on Angelides' numbers, but on Schwarzenegger's. Papas said the poll suggests Schwarzenegger has hit a ceiling and won't be able win over more than 50 percent of the state's voters.
"It's not good news for an incumbent governor known by 100-percent of the state to be stuck under 50 percent," Papas said. "His attempt to co-opt Democratic issues has had little effect."
Schwarzenegger adviser Matthew Dowd said the real story line is the governor's growing lead.
"What's important is the trend line - six weeks out our lead is growing," Dowd said. "At a time when the Angelides camp has been running their campaign as intensely as they can, he still hasn't consolidated his base, hasn't connected with voters and is losing ground."
Dowd attributed the growing lead in the poll to a combination of Schwarzenegger's bipartisan successes and to an increasingly clear contrast between the messages of the two campaigns.
"We're focused on the economy and the governor is doing things that show he's a leader," Dowd said. "Meanwhile, Angelides is talking about Iraq and other things that voters are wondering why a candidate for governor in California is talking about."
Angelides on Tuesday continued touting a plan to push President Bush to withdraw California's National Guard troops from Iraq.
The poll credited Schwarzenegger's lead to strong support from Republicans (82 percent) and a 15-point advantage among independents. Forty-two percent of independents said they would vote for Schwarzenegger; 27 percent said they would support Angelides.
Angelides has the backing of just 57 percent of Democrats, according to the poll.
Geographically, Schwarzenegger also holds a key lead over Angelides in Los Angeles - 41 percent of respondents in the state's largest city say the would vote for the movie star-turned-politician; 34 percent said they would support Angelides.
In the historic Democrat stronghold of the San Francisco Bay area, the two candidates are tied, according to the poll.
Papas promised that the Angelides campaign is entering a new phase in which voters will learn more about the Democrat's vision for the state.
Dowd said Angelides camp is running out of time to do so.
The nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found 48 percent of likely voters surveyed support Schwarzenegger; 31 percent back Angelides.
The results, if accurate, represent a 4-point gain for Schwarzenegger from last month's PPIC poll.
The poll, a telephone survey of 1,091 likely voters conducted Sept. 13-20, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
In July and August, PPIC pegged Schwarzenegger's lead at 13 points. Another statewide survey, the Field Poll, last put Schwarzenegger's lead at 8 points in July.
Fifteen percent of likely voters still remain undecided and six percent support third party candidates six weeks before the election, according to the PPIC poll.
Mark Baldassare, PPIC's research director, said the poll showed that the Democratic nominee has yet to rally key party constituencies.
Less than less than 60 percent of registered Democrats responding said they would vote for Angelides if the election were held now.
Specifically, Baldassare said Angelides must win over more Democrats, women, and Hispanics if he's going to seriously challenge the governor on Nov. 7.
Baldassare said one statistic from the poll best sums up Angelides' woes: Among likely voters in the state who disapprove of President Bush, Angelides holds a modest, 16-point lead.
"Angelides needs to be leading by a much larger margin in that category to make this a really close race," Baldassare said.
Nick Papas, a spokesman for the Angelides campaign, said the focus should not be on Angelides' numbers, but on Schwarzenegger's. Papas said the poll suggests Schwarzenegger has hit a ceiling and won't be able win over more than 50 percent of the state's voters.
"It's not good news for an incumbent governor known by 100-percent of the state to be stuck under 50 percent," Papas said. "His attempt to co-opt Democratic issues has had little effect."
Schwarzenegger adviser Matthew Dowd said the real story line is the governor's growing lead.
"What's important is the trend line - six weeks out our lead is growing," Dowd said. "At a time when the Angelides camp has been running their campaign as intensely as they can, he still hasn't consolidated his base, hasn't connected with voters and is losing ground."
Dowd attributed the growing lead in the poll to a combination of Schwarzenegger's bipartisan successes and to an increasingly clear contrast between the messages of the two campaigns.
"We're focused on the economy and the governor is doing things that show he's a leader," Dowd said. "Meanwhile, Angelides is talking about Iraq and other things that voters are wondering why a candidate for governor in California is talking about."
Angelides on Tuesday continued touting a plan to push President Bush to withdraw California's National Guard troops from Iraq.
The poll credited Schwarzenegger's lead to strong support from Republicans (82 percent) and a 15-point advantage among independents. Forty-two percent of independents said they would vote for Schwarzenegger; 27 percent said they would support Angelides.
Angelides has the backing of just 57 percent of Democrats, according to the poll.
Geographically, Schwarzenegger also holds a key lead over Angelides in Los Angeles - 41 percent of respondents in the state's largest city say the would vote for the movie star-turned-politician; 34 percent said they would support Angelides.
In the historic Democrat stronghold of the San Francisco Bay area, the two candidates are tied, according to the poll.
Papas promised that the Angelides campaign is entering a new phase in which voters will learn more about the Democrat's vision for the state.
Dowd said Angelides camp is running out of time to do so.
around San Diego (a navy town) bringin back the troops is a huge Issue (with camp pendleton nearby) and to be fair, he has some interesting proposals, too bad they include taxes, he'll never get elected now.
