The way I look at it is this. The first Hulk movie was in fact a failure because of its BO. Though it is true that the BO of the first Hulk could be considered a success for many other movies, the reason if was still a failure is because it could and
should have made more money.
First, relative to the budget, the expectation on the return was greater than the actual result turned out to be.
Second, and perhaps most importantly, the commodity of the Hulk should have produced a bigger BO return.
As the current producer of the Hulk movie has stated, for Marvel you have Spider-man and the Hulk ( I would add the FF in there). point being the Hulk is very well known and loved. He is a draw. The BO return should have been much bigger.perhaps Not as big as Spider-man, but at least over 300 million domestic.
There were many reasons why the actual BO didn't come close to that number. But it can all be boiled down to 1 sentence. They did not stick close enough to the source material.
Frank Miller has said it best. "it's pretty obvious that the closer you stick to the source material (comics) the better the results". This has been proven over and over again, yet they and frankly we the fans continue to accept, or even demand changes to material that has been successful for over 40 years.
It wasn't the lack of popularity that made the Hulk make so much less than SM it was the fact that the movie did not deliver. remember, Hulk made 100 million on its first week. Then it fell off completely. That means people came to see the Hulk, they just didn't like what they saw and never came back.
Spider-man didn't make 400 million just because he is the most popular marvel character. )by that logic Superman returns should have made 600 million.) It did so because it took a proven formula from the comics and brought it to life on the big screen.
think of it this way, comics can be looked at as 40+ years of market research. a research whose goal it is to tell you what idea, what concept, what approach, and what presentation is most appealing and pleasing to people. This results were that out of THOUSANDS and thousands of ideas about 5 to 10 concepts work REALLY well. They work everytime, in all kinds of different media and over many different generations. What Hollywood has done is take those results and siad ,..nahhh we can do better. What's sad is that even though they clearly have not so done yet, so many of us let them.
Based on what I've seen so far,...I predict that Iron man,,, even though he is a much less popular character than the Hulk, will make more at the BO.
The reason is because Iron man, much like Spider-man seems to follow the comics much more closely. The Iron man suit is directly from the comics, the origin is the same (though contemporized), the superheroic movement of the comics is brought right to the screen, etc etc. It is the comic come to life. It appears to be a much more solid production with better and more confident directing.
the result is that so far there is much more excitment over Iron man than there is for the Hulk.
IMHO from what we've seen so far,..the Hulk' is far behind Iron man. the marketing has been terrible compared to Iron man's marketing. Hulk took a much longer time showing us stuff while Iron man started very early on.
there are other signs which worry me about the Hulk.
Such as; The willingness to once again dismiss established history because the director thinks he knows better makes me wonder how many other things they've changed. (why change the abomination? a character whose design and look has worked for DECADES in all kinds of media without any problems. He may not be Doctor Doom, but imagine for a second how much more excitment would have been generated if he looked as he did in the comics. haven't they learned from the FF films?)
The acting,..and I hate to say this because we've seen so little so far,..but it seems weak IMO. The acting in the "couch" scene is poor.
the CGI clearly isn't top notch. for example the helicopter scene is obviously done with old fashioned FX where you know they aren't actually in the air for real.
I'm also not impressed with the CGI for the Hulk himself. It looks way too much like cgi IMOH. I would expect to see that level of CGI in the trailer for the video game. Yes I agree that the design is much closer to the comics, and therefor better than the Lee Hulk, but it looks too much like CGI. I love the pic of the close of Hulk's face,...but would anyone think for a second that it was real? It looks like a painting at best (though a very nice painting). This is true for all the other scenes of the Hulk we've seen (except maybe the shot from his back where he is running towards Abom). That's is a problem. CGI should be seemless and invisible better it gets in the way of our suspencion of disbelief.
Also, The choreography isn't very superheroic. Superhero choreography and movement is very unique. A superhero doesn't move like an action hero. There is a clear difference which I'm not seeing in the trailer. In a superhero flick everytime the hero appears or certainly fight it should be in a dramatic pose good enough to be a poster. bottom line is when I see the trailer to spider-man 2, or 300, or even Iron man,...I am blown away. I don't have that reaction for the Hulk.
a quick example of what I mean is the Helicopter scene. The fall from the Helicopter was boring. the crash landing was non existent. The fist coming through the ground was somewhat dramatic but not very. I do like the growl pose Hulk did. That works (even though I hate the fact that they are making the Hulk sounds like a lion. wtf is that about???). And the running pose was IMHO the most boring way possible to start the face off. (though I do like the leap at the very end).
Imagine for a second if instead, they had made Bruce jump out of the Helicopter backwards, as he did, But a he is falling he twists his body around (like a parachutist) and faces the ground. The wind rushing all around him. we get a close up of his face, we see the determination in his eyes. Then we get a shot from the back, showing him plunging towards the ground (obviously with a parachute). Then we again see his face, his eyes,...and the transformation begins. As he falls, his clothes tear and rip away from his bulging body. He becomes the Hulk mid air and SLAMS on the ground feet first like BOOOM
I think that would have been much more dramatic and supehero like.
Now having said all this. let me stress. I am PRAYING that this movie is good and that it does VERY well at the BO. And I do realize that what we've seen so far does not mean that it cannot be great. The actual movie CGI could be way better. The action could be much more exciting. The acting may well be solid. and they may have just the right blend of comics to Tv show faithfullness to make it work.
I should also say That I recognize that there are some positives to what we've seen as well. Pitting the Hulk against an equally dangerous foes obviously means they get it. Staying away from the 15 feet tall idea is very good news. the very idea of rebooting from the first film is a plus. Ed Norton is a much better Banner.
I am Praying that they will deliver a great movie and that it makes over 300 million because if rebooting works then there is hope for DD, Elektra, and yes IMO the X-men to be done right. I'm just not holding my breath.