The Iran Thread II

[Thundercrack85]

BP, screwing people gulf to gulf.

 

[Destructus86]

Shouldn't this be resurrected since Iran is in the news big time?

Also...no deals...Iran is vulnerable. I say we take them out. We don't need anymore crazy people with nuclear capabilities.

 

[Kelly]

Though I think "talks" with Iran are South of Silly....I think we should continue the sanctions, they are working. We need to actually strengthen our policies with those countries that are beginning to falter in those sanctions to make sure that they keep the stranglehold on as well. The people of Iran will rise up, they are far more educated than most in the Middle East and they will not take much more of this...

 

[Destructus86]

Though I think "talks" with Iran are South of Silly....I think we should continue the sanctions, they are working. We need to actually strengthen our policies with those countries that are beginning to falter in those sanctions to make sure that they keep the stranglehold on as well. The people of Iran will rise up, they are far more educated than most in the Middle East and they will not take much more of this...

Basically...Obama gave in. He has no spine.
This deal only stops Iran from building new centrifuges. It even allows them to REPLACE broken centrifuges of the 8000 they already have.

 

[IranianBatman]

Though I think "talks" with Iran are South of Silly....I think we should continue the sanctions, they are working. We need to actually strengthen our policies with those countries that are beginning to falter in those sanctions to make sure that they keep the stranglehold on as well. The people of Iran will rise up, they are far more educated than most in the Middle East and they will not take much more of this...

I disagree with the conventional wisdom that sanctions are working. I do think sanctions helped but they weren't the only reason. Another reason is that Iranians elected Rouhani so that the stranglehold on Iran can stop. Your theory of Iranians rising up and overthrowing the government is an admirable strategy but ultimately will not work in a very nationalistic country like Iran that wasn't created by the Brits or French but is a "real country".

That and continuing the sanctions requires the consent of US allies...if US is the only one of the great powers (ie. the P5+1) that is arguing for continuing the sanctions, then US allies COULD pull out of the sanctions regime. And then you would not get any meaningful concessions from Iran. So you would essentially have sanctions removed WITHOUT Iran making any concessions on its nuclear program. IMO, I think this interim deal needs to be vigorously tested. And it is a relationship with the US that can cause regime change in Iran and that is one reason that Khamanei may be hesitant to enter into diplomatic relations with the US.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

I disagree with the conventional wisdom that sanctions are working. I do think sanctions helped but they weren't the only reason. Another reason is that Iranians elected Rouhani so that the stranglehold on Iran can stop. Your theory of Iranians rising up and overthrowing the government is an admirable strategy but ultimately will not work in a very nationalistic country like Iran that wasn't created by the Brits or French but is a "real country".

That and continuing the sanctions requires the consent of US allies...if US is the only one of the great powers (ie. the P5+1) that is arguing for continuing the sanctions, then US allies COULD pull out of the sanctions regime. And then you would not get any meaningful concessions from Iran. So you would essentially have sanctions removed WITHOUT Iran making any concessions on its nuclear program. IMO, I think this interim deal needs to be vigorously tested. And it is a relationship with the US that can cause regime change in Iran and that is one reason that Khamanei may be hesitant to enter into diplomatic relations with the US.

Sanctions - Sanctions didn't do anything, aside from adding political leverage. Now what do I mean by that? The elites in Iran were unaffected by it. The people were the true victim to it. If anything, the Islamic Republic should have seen a benefit to this. The Iranian people would sooner than later forgotten that their own government was the oppressor in light of an external opposition (think back to when the Islamic Republic was first almost overthrown, until Sadam's declaration of War ignited the flame of nationalism in the hearts of the people, ensuring another couple decades of power to the Islamic Republic).

Iranians "elected" Rouhani because he was the lesser of many evils. Let's not kid ourselves here.

Iranians being nationalistic is precisely the reason why an internal revolution is the ONLY way Iran can be reformed. The current regime is not an "Iranian" regime. It's the remnants of ancient colonialism. (Yes I believe the Arab conquests to be the first example of colonialism, but that's a discussion in itself). The Iranian's need to break free of this political rule and establish a unified cultural country - and unified through the appraisal of diversity rather than obliteration (as they have now with a very anti-Jewish, anti-Baha'i, anti-Kurd, anti-Turk, anti-Assyrian and hell even anti-Persian if the high council and the Ayatollah could have it their way) and rather than assimilation (as they have in the United States - think manifest destiny, the recounting tails of the Alamo and "a good Indian is a dead Indian").

Essentially, the people are at conflict with their government, and the people make substantial steps against their aggressors, but every time an outside force threatens the nation, it completely undoes the progress the people made because they'd all spill their blood to save the land.

The people are willing to spill their blood against a tyrannical domestic government, don't distract them with an exterior negative force.

Khamenei is hesitant to enter into diplomatic relations with the United States because he is COMPLETELY against westernisation and Christians. He was the main advisor to Khomeini who told him to sever ties with Carter back in 1979.

This entire sanctions thing is ********. It's a way of going "look... we're doing something." without actually doing anything.

The best solution to the problem is for all of the world leaders to continuously come out and tell the Iranian people that they stand behind them. They need to make a statement. Obama had the opportunity to do this back in 2009/2010 and he flopped hard core. Iran could have already been reformed by now if this were done. Instead we have political facades dictating the outcome of the lives of millions.

It's sickening how politics - which has the potential to quicken the world - can essentially put a complete stop to social change.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Some pretty ****ed up propaganda and fact bending:
[YT]dYxEpS5M8Tk[/YT]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYxEpS5M8Tk

First and foremost, the Iranian people would never allow the country to be armed with a nuclear bomb. Second, the Ayatollah doesn't actually care at all about Islam or God - they use its image as a tool to garner a following (which is actually the severe minority of the country). Also things like the hostage crisis and the Beirut incident (as well as the entire Iran/Contra affair) was due to direct negotiations between Khomeini and Reagan/Bush, after exiling the Iranian President and sabotaging Carter's efforts to free the hostages (which were initially taken against the will of the Iranian government, and as a retaliation to news that the USA was using the embassy to house espionage).

Furthermore, Iran's armament during the Iran/Iraq war (resulting in American casualties) was partially supplied by Reagan and Bush's administration in negotiating for the freedom of hostages from Hezbollah - and interesting enough, not a single AMERICAN hostage was even released (one dead body was given back).

Iran's hatred of Israel (though publicly declared as a religious one) is actually purely political and as a result of Israel's position during the October Surprise and the Iran/Contra Affair.

Also, Iran didn't back Hamas, they backed Hezbollah. Hezbollah and Hamas coming closer together is a recent phenomenon, as they often debate key issues like the Syrian conflict.

Even IF Iran did get a nuclear weapon, they wouldn't use it. That's ridiculous. Having a nuclear weapon is much, much more impactful than using one. Using a nuclear weapon instantly makes you a target to be taken out by the entire world and could lead to fallout, but to have a nuclear bomb means your voice holds a bit more potency on the international platform - something the USA and England have both been trying to prevent Iran from achieving since 1953 (and probably earlier)

This video takes a few facts, and loosely strings them together based on opinion, speculation and prejudice with no regard for history, context or legitimate politics and strategy.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Tehran swaps out remaining "Death to America" propaganda billboards for Picasso and Matisse

source: http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...picasso-matisse-hockney-iran?CMP=share_btn_fb


Clearly they can't be trusted...

Is seems to me the only deal Iran is interested in making is a completely one sided one. They really don't care about peace, just what they can get out of it and they certainly don't want the west telling them what to do.

Have you ever heard of "irony"? Pretty interesting subject. You should look it up!

 

[Marvolo]

Man, I hope we can reach a good deal that benefits Iran as much as us. Maybe change is in the air over there and I'd hate for us to **** that up because of paranoia and pride.

 

[Kelly]

Well, what many said would happening, looks like now is a possibility.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-nuclear-weapons-to-offset-iran-1430999409

 

[Taarna]

In some circles, yes thats true (*cough*GeorgeWBush*cough*). But you see, this is a Constitutional Republic. We vote for a new President every four years and they are guaranteed to be gone after eight. Iran is a theocratic dictatorship. We can vote out a nut if we dont like them, Iranians cant. Mahmoud aint going anywhere, not without a fight. Even then, its the clerics that have the real power and they arent electable. So its not a valid comparison.

We have a nation here who not only wants to acquire nuclear weapons, they threaten to use them. Their leaders mock us in social media. In addition Iran won't sign any deal with the USA that allows us to inspect their military sites.

Radical religious types who threaten others with Nuclear weapons is the single greatest threat to the world.

Unless a deal is signed that allows the USA and United Nations the ability to inspect any site above, or below the ground 24 x 7, I think force will be needed.

Here's the thing. You do not need a long war. Just a complete and utter demolition job of all suspected sites, complete with burrowing like machines for the under ground faculties. It could be over in 60 days, and set Iran back 5-10 years in terms of its military and nuclear ambitions.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Well, what many said would happening, looks like now is a possibility.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-nuclear-weapons-to-offset-iran-1430999409

I just want to take every world leader sitting on nuclear weapons and slap them all in the face. Every single one of them.

We have a nation here who not only wants to acquire nuclear weapons, they threaten to use them.

This is the opposite of the truth. They've said they DON'T want nuclear weapons... when have they ever threatened to use them?

Their leaders mock us in social media.

I don't think anyone has gone to war with anyone for "mockery" since George Bush Sr gave Iraq weapons to fight a proxy war with Iran over a situation Reagan put himself in to begin with.

In addition Iran won't sign any deal with the USA that allows us to inspect their military sites.

Do you know what "sovereignty" means?

Radical religious types who threaten others with Nuclear weapons is the single greatest threat to the world.

I would say a single, xenophobic nation attempting to control and puppeteer all other nations is much more dangerous - especially when they hold 100% of the death toll for uses of a nuclear military strike. So no, not the "Single greatest threat"

Hell, I'd say climate change or humanity's ability/inability to outlast the expansion of the sun is a bigger threat to the world.

That said, radical leaders are still a horrible threat - more so because of the **** they put their own people through, but you know, who cares about the Iranian people. Just bomb the whole country, am I right?

Unless a deal is signed that allows the USA and United Nations the ability to inspect any site above, or below the ground 24 x 7, I think force will be needed.

The USA has NO place inspecting any sites on sovereign land owned by a foreign body. The UN should 100% though I agree with you there. The UN should also get rid of veto policy, hold Bush/Cheney responsible for war crimes, and inspect military bases of operations and interrogation centres for ALL nations (including Iran AND the USA) 24/7.

Also, Iran does have UN officers in Iran you realise that right? They're not all going to be white/western UN officers and scientists inspecting the area. A lot of them will be Iranian-born or of Iranian descent. My own uncle works with the UN right now in Iran for irrigation techniques and resolutions to draughts.

Here's the thing. You do not need a long war. Just a complete and utter demolition job of all suspected sites, complete with burrowing like machines for the under ground faculties. It could be over in 60 days, and set Iran back 5-10 years in terms of its military and nuclear ambitions.

Some things you might not have considered:
1. Civilian casualties
2. Cost of said operation (paid for by American taxpayers and MUCH more importantly, Iranian taxpayers)
3. Violating a list of international laws
4. Setting a precedent for future violations of international laws
5. De-legitimising the authority of the United Nations
6. Essentially declaring war on another sovereign country (thus extending WAY beyond 60 days)
7. USA risking losing its ties with China and Russia as well as the cost of Iranian oil going up





Solution to Iran Problem

1. Iranian energy solution
Iran must nationalize its oil. By doing so, Iran's international voice becomes MUCH more legitimate on an international platform and foreign export prices of oil would GREATLY subsidise domestic cost.

Iran's nuclear ambitions should be reduced and full transparency should be given to the UN. USA can piss off. It has no place overseeing the actions of sovereign states.

Finally, Iran should pursue renewable energy so that in twenty years, it can shift to about 80% renewable energy. They should set up geo-thermal generators off the cost of the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf - these will provide power for the north and the south. The central region of Iran (province of Pars/Fars primarily) should set solar fields - this would cover the majority of central Iran.

Setting up a couple nuclear plants on the East and West will ensure full coverage of the country and renders domestic oil use limited to cars, allowing more to be sold internationally.



2. Restructuring the Government / Revolution
Either there needs to be slow restructuring or a drastic revolution. Problem with a revolution is that it risks making things worse just as much as it does making it better. The last two coup d'etats in Iran made things worse - both times due to foreign influence and at the costs of many innocent civilians. This is why it's such a touchy topic. 2009 offered the ideal moment for all world leaders to sway their backing to the Iranian people. The fact that they didn't shows that politicians have no spine.

Another reason a lot of international powers DON'T want Iran to have a democracy is that they're still reliant on its resources. It's easier to make negotiations with ONE dictator than it is to negotiate with an entire democratic nation of educated individuals.


3. Legitimising the United Nations
Remove the veto states from their self-righteous positions of authority. Charge every political figured from said veto nations that have committed war crimes and hold them accountable.

Require all nations to give FULL transparency of all of their operations to the United Nations. Give the UN more dedicated soldiers and raise budget contribution from a set dollar amount to a required percentage/tax for world peace efforts.

Military budgets for nations could be almost ZERO out of pocket due to subsidisation of international arms contributions. This time whenever a country actually DOES have WsMD, the UN can quickly intervene without causing a decade long war and a 10-figure deficit.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

'My Enemy… My Brother'

http://nyti.ms/1Fkt0tN

 

[Taarna]

Iran rules out nuclear inspections of military sites

http://news.yahoo.com/iran-rules-nuclear-inspections-military-sites-100238506.html


Please walk Obama. No deal. Up the sanctions.

 

[Marvolo]

Yeah, lets just give up. Who needs negotiations? Thats not how we do things in Murica!

 

[herakles]

Yeah, lets just give up. Who needs negotiations? Thats not how we do things in Murica!

Yeah, lets give in to the Iranians.

Iran is NOT going to agree to anything Marvolo. This is essentially pointless. Iran will continue to stall till they have the bomb then they will tell us go eat a fat one!

 

[Marvolo]

Yeah, lets give in to the Iranians.

Iran is NOT going to agree to anything Marvolo. This is essentially pointless. Iran will continue to stall till they have the bomb then they will tell us go eat a fat one!

Who said anything about giving in? Negotiations take time and effort. Give and take. Do yall think this is the first treaty in the history of mankind that wasnt banged out in a day? Im sure other countries weve negotiated with have made crazy demands. We overcame some of them and we may yet figure this out as well.

So how about we give our diplomats time to work on Iran and see what they can do. We wont agree to this stipulation and we shouldnt. But yall are advocating throwing the baby out with the bath water. Chill out and let our diplomats do their jobs.

Iran needs nuclear energy, and I want them to have it. Better infrastructure is what the middle east needs. Im not ready to give up on this just because Iran made a demand. And I sure as **** dont want to give up on it because some americans are afraid of some hypothetical non existent nuclear bomb that they dont have the ability to make now or in the imediate future. The deadline is June 30. We will continue to negotiate until then. And you neednt worry. Iran isnt going to have a nuclear bomb and an ICBM to deliver it by that time. So lets all just relax. Western civilization isnt going to end if we continue negotiations.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Iran rules out nuclear inspections of military sites

http://news.yahoo.com/iran-rules-nuclear-inspections-military-sites-100238506.html


Please walk Obama. No deal. Up the sanctions.

Ever heard of sovereignty?

Yeah, lets give in to the Iranians.

Iran is NOT going to agree to anything Marvolo. This is essentially pointless. Iran will continue to stall till they have the bomb then they will tell us go eat a fat one!

My uncle the farmer is Iranian. I'll let him know you're giving in to him. He'll probably be very confused.

 

[Thundercrack85]

I can't say I feel particularly strongly on this. This deal is temporary anyway. Sooner or later it will come to war or violent revolution. Probably the former.

The only question is who the combatants will be.

I'm a bit more concerned about North Korea. The Ayatollah is sane. I'm not convinced that Kim Jong-il Jr is and he already has nuclear weapons.

 

[terry78]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/07/1...d-after-long-negotiations.html?_r=0&referrer=



We'll see if this deal pans out.

 

[chamber-music]

Benjamin Netanyahu is ******** as usual

 

[Marvolo]

The person in the back getting hit with the sex doll is Netanyahu.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

Benjamin Netanyahu is ******** as usual

20 years and counting and people are still falling for his act.

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/...y-netanyahu-crying-wolf-iranian-nuclear-bomb/

 

[SV Fan]

I always get a laugh when people say that this is a big threat to the US. I am sorry worse case scenario, Iran ends up with a nuke, I don't think a bad thing will happen on US soil

It's the same idiot neocons we always hear chirping on the right pushing this garbage.

Way I look at this is anybody who doesn't support this deal is indirectly supporting a stronger Isis(at least that's how I would push it giving them their stupid rhetoric back)

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Amazing Obama pulled of yet another milestone the past 4 presidents couldn't achieve