The North Korean Situation

[The Squirrel]

There's no "USA time." The USA covers 3 time zones (more, if you count Hawaii).

Eastern time is usually used as a standard. I can subtract to Central time from there.

 

[Alonsovich]

Like Kel said, NK is a parasite and China is very aware of that. The Cold War is over, Alex. China is becoming more and more capitalistic on a daily basis. China doesn't need an East Germany, nor do they want the burden of supporting a rogue state ran by a crazed leader who pulls **** like this. If the US bombed North Korea into oblivion all China would do is lecture us in the UN because at the end of the day, the money that we owe China is far more important to them than keeping their parasite alive.

I think the wild card China is playing here is Kim Jong-un. They're basically waiting for him to take power and make reforms that open NK in Chinese style. Basically... if there isn't a war before, the only way the Kim family will stay in power is with massive aperturistic reforms. If he doesn't do it expect China to finance a literal or disguised coup d'etat in NK to fit it more to it's interests.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Yeah. Right. Because having a surplus always hurts the economy. Making money is the wrong way to go economically. Isn't spending the definition of Capitalism?

I'm sure BushCo's making their friends rich in the 00's have nothing to do with our current situation.

More like the banking reforms of the Republican Congress and Clinton Administration put us in the mess we're in. Or messing around with the Social Security Fund. Or not using any of the surplus to pay off the damn debt. Or so many freaking bubbles like the dot com bubble started off in the 90's.

Sure, the 1990's was a prosperous decade, but so were the 1920's. And just like the short term policies of the 1920's created the long term problems that led to the Great Depression, the short term successes of the 1990's led to the Great Recession in the late 2000's.

Clinton's policies had a much bigger effect than BushCo.'s ******ed deficit spending. Sure the Bush Administration played it's part by allowing speculation to run rampant (the surplus/deficit situation has nothing to do with our current economic state), but the Clinton Administration played a far bigger role, because the root of the problem is the regulations that Clinton got rid of, that allowed the banks to perform practices that created the financial meltdown that created the Great Recession.

 

[hippie_hunter]

According to WikiLeaks:

"In yet another cable, American diplomats in East Asia reported about members of the Beijing leadership who had grown sick and tired of the escapades of their North Korean ally Kim Jong Il and who could conceive of reunification under the control of South Korea."

 

[Alex The Great]

Well, that's good

 

[Spidey-Bat]

According to WikiLeaks:

"In yet another cable, American diplomats in East Asia reported about members of the Beijing leadership who had grown sick and tired of the escapades of their North Korean ally Kim Jong Il and who could conceive of reunification under the control of South Korea."

Would South Korea want to absorb North Korea? I just get the impression that the dream of a united Korea is dead.

 

[craigdbfan]

All of this is so odd. Tension in Korean Peninsula, Eurozone collapse, release of Wikileaks of "confidential" documents. On a lesser degree of importance but a ton of domains which are involved in pirating are being taken over by the FED in massive numbers.

Now the US is thinking of possibly having more control over domains and enforcing more regulations on the internet as a whole but at this point is that even possible?

Really hope things calm down. So much conflict everywhere at the same time.

 

[Hobgoblin]

Would South Korea want to absorb North Korea? I just get the impression that the dream of a united Korea is dead.

Right. If the two countries unite, than North Korea's problems becomes South Korea's problems.

 

[Marx]

Would South Korea want to absorb North Korea? I just get the impression that the dream of a united Korea is dead.

I think the South would absorb them regardless. (Whether they wanted to or not.)

 

[Kelly]

I think it would be tough on South Korea, but I believe they have the carrying capacity to handle it. We would have many immigrate here as well...

Canada would also absorb a large number....

Japan will say, NO WAY....

 

[Alex The Great]

Eh, We can take them in

We can shove them all in Saskatchuan or Manitoba

 

[Soapy]

Haven't read the thread, so I apologize if something similar has been brought up. Anyway, something I've been mulling over,

Assuming for a second that war breaks out, and assuming for a second that North Korea loses, how messy could it get with the civilians? I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't most of them total fanatics that have been brainwashed to believe that Kim Jong-il is a god and the United States is a Nazi Germany-esque evil empire or some ****? I mean, I can't imagine such a people would say, "Well, war's over. I guess we'll just forget all that crazy stuff we've been taught for generations and make peace with everyone."

Keep in mind my understanding of North Korea comes mostly from bits and pieces I pick up from movies and mainstream news.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Haven't read the thread, so I apologize if something similar has been brought up. Anyway, something I've been mulling over,

Assuming for a second that war breaks out, and assuming for a second that North Korea loses, how messy could it get with the civilians? I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't most of them total fanatics that have been brainwashed to believe that Kim Jong-il is a god and the United States is a Nazi Germany-esque evil empire or some ****? I mean, I can't imagine such a people would say, "Well, war's over. I guess we'll just forget all that crazy stuff we've been taught for generations and make peace with everyone."

Keep in mind my understanding of North Korea comes mostly from bits and pieces I pick up from movies and mainstream news.

A second Korean War is expected to have high civilian casualties due to the North being completely incapable of waging war on it's own, and it's expected that China would abandon them. So because of this, they are only capable of performing a one-hit massive strike with everything they have directed towards South Korea's economic, population, administrative, and cultural center which is absurdly close to the DMZ.

However, the war would quickly end due to the North Korean military being poorly equipped, poorly fed, poorly trained, and having low morale. Most of North Korea's citizenry will most likely accept the war being over due to their horrible economic conditions that have left them impoverished and starving. And the North Korean government has to deal with it being tougher and tougher to keep outside information out of North Korea, which reveals that the outside world is way better than their crappy country, and they don't exactly have the capabilities that the Chinese have to block it.

 

[craigdbfan]

N. Korea says it does not fear war, vows to give harsh response if attacked

SEOUL, Nov. 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea said Monday it is never afraid of war and vowed to "grub up" the base of its aggressors if attacked, condemning massive South Korean-U.S. naval exercises under way in response to the communist nation's artillery attack.

North Korea has ratcheted up harsh rhetoric against the maneuvers near the tense Yellow Sea border between the two Koreas, claiming that the war games are aimed at invading the country and that the Korean Peninsula is on the brink of war.

 

[jesusmagicka]

A second Korean War is expected to have high civilian casualties due to the North being completely incapable of waging war on it's own, and it's expected that China would abandon them. So because of this, they are only capable of performing a one-hit massive strike with everything they have directed towards South Korea's economic, population, administrative, and cultural center which is absurdly close to the DMZ.

However, the war would quickly end due to the North Korean military being poorly equipped, poorly fed, poorly trained, and having low morale. Most of North Korea's citizenry will most likely accept the war being over due to their horrible economic conditions that have left them impoverished and starving. And the North Korean government has to deal with it being tougher and tougher to keep outside information out of North Korea, which reveals that the outside world is way better than their crappy country, and they don't exactly have the capabilities that the Chinese have to block it.

That's really scary. Damn, shoulda spent all this time building up a shield wall between the two.

 

[Pink Ranger]

Eh, We can take them in

We can shove them all in Saskatchuan or Manitoba

Dude, haven't the people of North Korea suffered enough?

 

[Hobgoblin]

I gotta say, I'm surprised at the tough talk coming out of Seoul.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...n-being-patient-with-North-Korea-anymore.html

By Andrew Gilligan in Seoul 6:16PM GMT 29 Nov 2010

North Korea, which claims the sea immediately around Yeongpyeong, meanwhile declared on Monday that it was "not afraid of war", explicitly threatening a "rain of dreadful fire" if there is any violation of what it deems its territory.

In his first full address to the nation since Pyongyang shelled the southern island of Yeongpyeong, killing four people, Lee Myung-bak, the South Korean president, said that "at long last" his country had come to realise that its previous policy of patience with North Korea "no longer makes sense."

"The South Korean people now unequivocally understand that prolonged endurance and tolerance will spawn nothing but more serious provocations," he said.


"We are aware of the historic lesson that a disgraceful peace achieved through intimidation only brings about greater harm in the end If the North commits any additional provocations against the South, we will make sure that it pays a dear price without fail."

In his seven-minute televised address, President Lee, who is facing an unprecedented wave of anger from South Koreans over his handling of the attack, apologised to his countrymen for what he called a "crime against humanity."

"I am standing here, keenly aware that I am responsible for not having been able to protect the lives and property of the people," the president said. "I understand very well that you were greatly disappointed with how we responded to the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island by North Korea."

Mr Lee's promise of retaliation for any future North Korean attack leaves him with almost no room for manoeuvre in the event of further provocations by Pyongyang.

At the same time, however, the South drew back from staging new live-fire exercises around Yeongpyeong island. Similar exercises last week were blamed by Pyongyang for triggering its attack.

The new exercises – separate from joint US-South Korean drills which continue fifty miles to the south – could have raised tensions even further.

The new exercises were announced yesterday but then cancelled within hours. South Korean officials insisted that they had merely been postponed, and would still take place.

Seoul did, however, deploy long-range howitzers and multiple rocket-launchers on Yeongpyeong, which was declared a "security zone" allowing the military to remove all civilians and journalists from the area.

Pyongyang state media yesterday issued new threats against the South.

"We don't want war, but never are afraid of one," the official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, said. "If internal and external war maniacs make a provocation again, we will counter it without hesitation, grub up the base of aggressors entirely and cleanse the root cause of war clearly."

 

[The Squirrel]

Even if China doesn't back them there is always a chance a country like Iran might.

 

[Raiden]

I gotta say, I'm surprised at the tough talk coming out of Seoul.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...n-being-patient-with-North-Korea-anymore.html

Well, both North Korea and South Korea can talk tough because they have the support of China and US, respectively. However, I wonder how far China will be willing to go along with N.Korea's aggressive stance, and I don't believe N.Korea is really serious about having a second Korea War; I think this posturing is just a show of force from Kim Il-sung, mainly to upstage his political enemies as he prepared his youngest son as the new leader of the country. Maybe it is also used as a bartering tool to get the Western leaders to try to negotiate a ceasefire with financial aids.

 

[Hobgoblin]

Even if China doesn't back them there is always a chance a country like Iran might.

How would Iran back them? Iran is on the other side of the planet. By the time the Iranian navy arrived in North Korea, the war would be well under way and turning against the North. Yes, Iran could try to divert American attention from the North by attacking Israel but I dont think they will. They dont want to provoke the Americans without a bomb or two as backup.

 

[Hobgoblin]

Well, both North Korea and South Korea can talk tough because they have the support of China and US, respectively. However, I wonder how far China will be willing to go along with N.Korea's aggressive stance, and I don't believe N.Korea is really serious about having a second Korea War; I think this posturing is just a show of force from Kim Il-sung, mainly to upstage his political enemies as he prepared his youngest son as the new leader of the country. Maybe it is also used as a bartering tool to get the Western leaders to try to negotiate a ceasefire with financial aids.

Most likely you are right. The North whines and complains every few years so we will give them aid. They especially acted up when Kim took over for his father in 1994. Now that the kid is about to take over, they are using the old playbook. The difference is the South's aggravation and "We arent going to take this anymore" attitude.

EDIT:
As h_h said before, China is just as tired of NK as the rest of us. On one hand, that makes China a more willing partner in talks. On the other, it would make NK feel even more cornered than they already do. We've all heard the expression about the cornered rat.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/29/wikileaks.new.documents/index.html?hpt=T2

(CNN) -- New documents posted on the websites of the Guardian and The New York Times suggest Chinese officials are losing patience with long-time ally North Korea. Senior figures in Beijing have even described the regime in the North as behaving like a "spoiled child."

According to cables obtained by WikiLeaks, South Korea's then vice foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, said earlier this year that senior Chinese officials (whose names are redacted in the cables) had told him they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.

Chun was quoted at length in a cable sent by the U.S. ambassador in Seoul, Kathleen Stephens, earlier this year. He is reported as saying that "the North had already collapsed economically and would collapse politically two to three years after the death of (leader) Kim Jong-il."

CNN has viewed the cables posted on the newspapers' websites and on the WikiLeaks website.

 

[craigdbfan]

North Korea warns of all-out war

(CNN) -- North Korea warned Tuesday that the continuing military drills by the United States and South Korea could lead to "all-out war any time." The firmly-worded message was published in North Korea's state-run KCNA news service.

"If the U.S. and the South Korean war-like forces fire even a shell into the inviolable land and territorial waters of the DPRK, they will have to pay dearly for this," the news service report said. South Korea and the United States launched joint anti-submarine military exercises on Monday, drawing consternation from North Korea.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

All these threats are like two teens arguing over the phone.

It's pathetic and sad that those childish threats could cost millions of lives.

 

[obin_gam]

Apperantly USA knew that Northkorea would attack SK
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09SEOUL672.html

The DPRK's determination to maintain internal order
meant that it could go so far as to engage in "limited armed
conflict" with the ROK. At the same time, the DPRK was well
aware that ROK forces were ready for any provocation and
would respond with superior force. In addition, the DPRK
knew that combined ROK-U.S. surveillance capabilities would
prevent it from achieving surprise, so XXXXXXXXXXXX was reassured that
no direct military provocation was imminent.

 

[Raiden]

Right. If the two countries unite, than North Korea's problems becomes South Korea's problems.

Well, it happened before when Eastern and Western Germany reunited after the fall of the Berlin Wall. I read that W. Germany is still supporting their Eastern brethren financially to this day. Obviously, N. Korea is quite broken and will need the S. Korea's economic support if they reunite, but I'm sure S. Korea will be more than willing to do so if it brings peace to their borders at last.